Showing posts with label 90 Minute Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 90 Minute Cycle. Show all posts

Friday, July 12, 2024

ICT Macros & Quarterly Theory | Michael J. Huddleston & Daye

Algorithmic macros are timed directives for market maker price algorithms to seek and take out liquidity levels and imbalances in the market. Hence looking at a chart the first task is always to identify imbalances/inefficiencies, buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels. Look at previous day's highs and lows, session highs and lows, highs and lows in the last three days and the previous week. 
 
 
There are 8 macros during the trading day:
 
          #1  London Pre-Open Macro      02:33 - 03:00 EST/EDT
#2 London Open Macro               04:03 - 04:30
#3 New York AM Macro                 08:50 - 09:10
#4 London Close Macro               09:50 - 10:10
#5 London Fix Macro                    10:50 - 11:10
#6 New York AM Close Macro    11:50 - 12:10
#7 New York Lunch Macro          13:10 - 13:40
#8 New York PM Close Macro    15:15 - 15:45
 
ICT Killzones and Macros in the US Dollar Index 5 minute chart.
 
ICT Killzones and Macros in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 5 minute chart.

Macros focus mainly on the first 20, 30, or 40 minutes of a trading hour (22.5 Minute Cycle). 
 
► There are no ICT macros during the Asian Session.  
► The macro between 9:50 and 10:10 is a time window where the market maker algorithm starts running for liquidity (look for ICT Silver Bullet setup).
► The period between 10:50 and 11:10 marks the end of the 3rd hour of the New York AM Session, and the first 90 minutes of floor trading (90 Minute Cycle). 
► The transition from the AM session to the lunch period leads either to consolidation, reversal or continuation (6 Hour AMDX/XAMD Cycle).
 
Divison of the trading day according to the Quarterly Theory:
6 Hour Sessions, 90 Minute Quarters & 22.5 Minute Micro Cycles/Quarters (EST/EDT).
 
6 Hour Sessions & 90 Minute Quarters in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 15 minute chart.
 
90 minute Cycles & 22.5 Minute Micro Quarters in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1 minute chart.
 
Based on market structure and price action prior and during a macro, three categories can be classified:
 
(1.) Manipulation Macros sweep both buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels.
(2.) Expansion Macros sweep liquidity only on the buy-side OR the sell-side (trending price).
(3.) Accumulation Macros are characterized by ranging prices. 
 
Swing highs and lows of macro intervals can act as support and resistance.
 
Reference:
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Thursday, July 11, 2024

Common Intra-Day Stock Market Patterns & Setups | Cory Mitchell

The US stock market has certain patterns, based on the time of day. These patterns, or tendencies, happen often enough for professional day traders to base their trading around them. One tendency is that the stock market can become less volatile, flatten out, and see less volume in and around the New York Lunch Hour. Many day traders stop trading about half an hour to an hour before this slowdown kicks in and don't trade again until well after the lunch hour, when volatility and volume pick up again.  

9:30 (EST/EDT) : The stock market opens, and there is an initial push in one direction.
 

9:45 : The initial push often sees a significant reversal or pullback. This is often just a short-term shift, and then the original trending direction re-asserts itself.

 Six Intraday Templates and Trading Setups for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.

10:00 : If the trend that began at 9:30 is still in play, it will often be challenged around this time. This tends to be another time where there is a significant reversal or pullback

True Open, 6 Hour Cycle, 90 Minute Cycle, and 22.5 Minute Cycle.

11:15 – 11:30 : The market is heading into the lunch hour, and London is getting ready to close. This is when volatility will typically die out for a couple hours, but often the daily high or low will be tested around this time. European traders usually close out positions or accumulate a position before they finish for the day. Whether the highs or lows are tested or not, the market tends to "drift" for the next hour or more. 
 
11:45 – 13:30 : This is lunch time in New York, plus a bit of a time buffer. Usually, this is the quietest time of the day, and often, day traders like to avoid it.


13:30 – 14:00 : If the lunch hour was calm, then expect a breakout of the range established during lunch hour. Often, the market will try to move in the direction it was trading in before the lunch hour doldrums set in. 
 
14:00 – 14:45 : The close is getting closer, and many traders are trading with the trend, thinking it will continue into the close. That may happen, but expect some sharp reversals around this time, because on the flip side, many traders are quicker to take profits or move their trailing stops closer to the current price.


15:00 and 15:30 : These are big "shakeout" points, in that they will force many traders out of their positions. If a reversal of the prior trend occurs around this time, then the price is likely to move very strongly in the opposite direction. Even if the prior trend does sustain itself through these periods, expect some quick and sizable counter-trend moves. 
 
 Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles.

As a day trader, it is best to be nimble and not get tied to one position or one direction. It can be very hard to hold a trade for very long between 3 p.m. and the close. The last hour of trading is the second most volatile hour of the trading day. Many day traders only trade the first hour and last hour of the trading day.

15:58 – 16:00 : The market closes at 16:00. After that, liquidity dries up in nearly all stocks and ETFs, except for the very active ones. It's common to close all positions a minute or more before the closing bell, unless you have orders placed to close your position on a closing auction or "cross."


Big News Events can throw a wrench in these tendencies, resulting in big trends, reversals, or movement through the lunch hour or other times that would be uncommon without some sort of external catalyst. 

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Tuesday, May 7, 2024

ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory | Darya Filipenka

People have been asking me to share my strategy. No, I do NOT overcomplicate things. I'm simply demonstrating how straightforward it can be. My strategy is primarily based on the Power of 3 concept that you can find on @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
 
ICT New York Morning Session A+ Setups based on Quarterly Theory:
Between 8:15 and 8:38 am (EST/EDT; during the Q3 micro cycle) look for a ICT Unicorn Setup.

I've made some additions to my trading arsenal since @traderdaye introduced the Quarterly Theory, but I've been using this setup since February 2023. I didn't have a name for it initially, but Quarterly Theory seems fitting to me.

I hope you can gain some new insights from my findings, which I've been diligently working on for almost a year. Nevertheless, the core of my strategy can be found on @traderdaye page and @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
  
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Wednesday, March 27, 2024

ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | Darya Filipenka

The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based algorithmic trading model for all assets. For the 10 AM Silver Bullet strategy, focus on 10-11 AM, using fair value gaps and Fibonacci levels for entry/stop adjustments, aiming for a minimum 3R risk-reward, and exit by 11 AM to maximize profits and minimize risks. 
 

3:00 AM - 4:00 AM New York Time
  1. A Silver Bullet trade begins with a directional move either up or down.
  2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): After the directional move, a Fair Value Gap is left behind. This gap is an important indicator for the Silver Bullet trade.
  3. Market Structure Shift (MSS) after taking liquidity. A Market Structure Shift is a shift in direction of price delivery. When price is going in a direction and shifts to the exactly opposite. It occurs when price takes out previous short-term lows or highs within a trend. Identifying these shifts allows for an understanding on which side of the market to be trading with. A Market Structure Shift must be energetic and leave behind displacement to ensure that market is looking to reverse.
  4. Displacement is a location in price where someone with a lot of money comes into the marketplace with a strong conviction to move price higher or lower very quickly. Displacement is characterized by strong and quick price movement that leave behind Fair Value Gaps.
  5. Entering the Fair Value Gap: Once the Fair Value Gap is identified, we enter inside it. This means we take a position in the market.
  6. Target and Exit: I aim for Asian Session Liquidity Level or Higher Time Frame Premium/Discount levels.
10:00 AM - 11:00 AM New York Time
The first thing we think about is the previous New York PM session. If, within the first 30 minutes after the market opens, we're not close to the PM range, we focus on the London Session Raid. This refers to the time between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM, which is shown on the ETH chart. During the first 30 minutes after the market opens at 9:30 AM, we check where we stand compared to the previous PM session or London session. The market might go up or down, or it might stay stable. Then we wait for the Displacement between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.
  1. Every day between 10 AM and 11 AM EST, identify an obvious pool of liquidity that has not been tapped into or engaged.
  2. Wait for displacement (use 1-3-5 minute charts) towards liquidity pool between that time. Find a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the opposite of the targeted liquidity pool.
  3. Wait for price to trade back into the Fair Value Gap and then reprice out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.
After identifying the Market Structure Shift (MSS), I recommend drawing an Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) retracement from the Swing Low (High) to the Swing High (Low). The optimal entry point for trades is typically at the 62% retracement level of that range. Once the trade is entered, the first target is typically set at the -27% extension level, and the second target is set at the -62% extension level.

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM New York Time
The first thing we focus on is the morning and lunch time trading sessions. Our goal is to identify the AM Session Buy Side and Sell Side Liquidity (BSL/SSL) or Lunch BSL/SSL once the PM Session starts (from 1:30 PM to 4:00 PM). This will serve as our reversal point during the afternoon Silver Bullet, where our target will be the opposite liquidity of the lunch/AM session. If it's Friday, our target can be 20-30% of the weekly range. This is known as the T.G.I.F. setup according to ICT.
  1. We wait for the Displacement between 2 PM and 3 PM EST, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.
  2. We look for a clear pool of untapped liquidity. It's recommended to pay attention to the liquidity levels during the AM and Lunch sessions.
  3. Find a Fair Value Gap.
  4. Wait for the price to trade back into the FVG and then move out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.
Once again, we usually consider the AM Session BSL/SSL or NY Lunch BSL/SSL as our clear liquidity pool that has been taken. Then we wait for Market Structure Shift (MSS) and displacement.
 
Consider the 6 hour, the 90 minute, and the 22.5 minute cycles.
Expect highs and lows on the 1 minute chart around Micro-Quarter turns.

Reference: 

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Thursday, January 18, 2024

Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups | Darya Filipenka

 
A 90 minute cycle either plays out as an AMD-X or as a X-AMD pattern:
A = Accumulation/Consolidation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation/Expansion
D = Distribution/Expansion
X = Reversal or Continuation
 
Q1 dictates Q2, Q3 and Q4.
If Q1 accumulates (A), Q2 expands (M).
If Q2 accumulates (A), Q4 expands (D).
If Q1 expands, Q2 accumulates, Q3 expands and Q4 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Asia expands, skip London, trade NY and skip the PM session.
If Asia consolidates, trade London, skip NY, then trade the PM Session.
London is more prone to make the high/low of the day whenever Asia consolidates. 
Anticipate price to run the high if you are bearish or the low if you are bullish.
Tuesday is more prone to make the high/low of the week whenever Monday consolidates.
Best trading days will have consolidation during the Asian Session. 
 
Possible Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Expansion: The initial phase A often begins with Accumulation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This will transition into an expansion phase M.
  • Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely.
  • Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement.
  • Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction.
  • Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend.
  • Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction.
 

Impossible Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Reversal: A direct transition from Accumulation to reversal is not likely, as Accumulation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction.
  • Accumulation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from Accumulation to retracement is unlikely, as Accumulation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend.
  • Accumulation → Expansion → Accumulation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another Accumulation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal.
  • Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction.
 
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Monday, January 15, 2024

Quarterly Theory vs S&P 500 | Week January 15 - 19

Time-price relations are fractal and governed by algorithms. The trading week comprises four time quarters (Q1-Q4): Q1 is Monday, Q2 Tuesday, Q3 Wednesday and Q4 Thursday. Friday has a special function and is not part of this cycle. The market maker's time-price algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 patterns: AMD - X and X - AMD in which Q1-Q4 have the following functions: A   =  Accumulation phase; M  =  Manipulation phase; D  =  Distribution phase and X  =  Continuation or Reversal phase. In the weekly AMD - X pattern Q1 Monday is the Accumulation phase. Q2 Tuesday is the Manipulation phase and the first Q2 price is the weeks True Open. Q3 Wednesday has the 'distribution function' and produces the weeks largest directional move. Q3 is easiest and best to trade. X Thursday continues or reverses the Q3 trend. In the weekly X - AMD pattern Q1 Monday is the X day, Q2 accumulates, Q3 manipulates and Q4 Thursday produces the week's largest directional move; easiest and best to trade.    
 
S&P 500 (4 hour bars)
The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. 
Q1 is the first full week of the month, Q2 the second week, etc.
Week January 15 - 19 (Mon-Fri) =
 Q2 week with Accumulation function and AMD - X day pattern. 
 
 S&P 500 (30 minute bars)
 
Each trading day comprises four six hour quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia Session
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London Session (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 New York AM Session
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 New York PM Session
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 session patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each six hour session comprises four 90 minute quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 90 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each 90 minute cycle comprises four  22.5 minute micro-quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 18:22:30
Q2 - 18:22:30 - 18:45 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 18:45 - 19:07:30
Q4 - 19:07:30 - 19:30 
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 22.5 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AM
 
Reference:
Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.
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Saturday, January 13, 2024

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

In March 2023 Jevaunie Daye (traderdaye), a young ICT trader from the US, took the trading world by storm with his Quarterly Theory (not to be confused with the Quarters Theory), a concept he derived from Michael Huddleston's ICT mentorships. Within weeks Daye's Youtube Channel with just one video in which he briefly outlined his theory exploded to 16,000 subscribers: "Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles."  
 
 
 
 Daye (March 14, 2023) - Ever wondered ... ?

The idea is to split year, month, week, day and session into quarters at specific times which lead to ICT's Power of 3 (Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution) cycles within those quarters. They present in one of these two forms:

Q1. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q2. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q3. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
Q4. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.

(OR)

Q1. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.
Q2. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q3. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q4. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
 
 
Blending the Quarterly Theory and basic ICT concepts leads to enhanced precision. Understanding Quarterly Theory allows to be flexible. It fits in with any style of trading, as it is universal to all time-frames. The Quarterly Theory removes ambiguity, as it gives specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades. Before being able to apply this theory to trading, one must first understand that time is fractal:

Yearly Quarters = 4 quarters of three months each.
Monthly Quarters = 4 quarters of one week each.
Weekly Quarters = 4 quarters of one day each (Monday - Thursday). Friday has its own specific function.
Daily Quarters = 4 quarters of 6 hours each = 4 trading sessions of a trading day.
Sessions Quarters =  4 quarters of 90 minutes each.
90 Minute Quarters =  4 quarters of 22.5 minutes each.
 
Yearly Cycle: Analogously to financial quarters, the year is divided in four sections of three months each:
 
Q1 - January, February, March.
Q2 - April, May, June (True Open, April Open).
Q3 - July, August, September.
Q4 - October, November, December.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) — Monthly Cycle.

Monthly Cycle: Considering that we have four weeks in a month, we start the cycle on the first month’s Monday (regardless of the calendar Day):
 
Q1 - Week 1: first Monday of the month.
Q2 - Week 2: second Monday of the month (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Week 3: third Monday of the month.
Q4 - Week 4: fourth Monday of the month.
 
 
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) — Weekly Cycle.
 
Weekly Cycle: Daye determined that although the trading week is composed by 5 trading days, we should ignore Friday, and the small portion of Sunday’s price action:
 
Q1 - Monday.
Q2 - Tuesday (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Wednesday.
Q4 - Thursday.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (1 hour candles) — Daily Cycle.

Daily Cycle: The Day can be broken down into 6 hour quarters. These times roughly define the sessions of the trading day, reinforcing the theory’s validity:
 
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia.
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London (True Open).
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 NY AM.
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 NY PM.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (15 minute candles) — 6 Hour Cycle.

6 Hour Quarters or 90 Minute Cycle / Sessions divided into four sections of 90 minutes each  (EST/EDT):
 
Asian Session
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
 London Session
Q1 - 00:00 - 01:30
Q2 - 01:30 - 03:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 03:00 - 04:30
Q4 - 04:30 - 06:00
NY AM Session 
Q1 - 06:00 - 07:30
Q2 - 07:30 - 09:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 09:00 - 10:30
Q4 - 10:30 - 12:00
NY PM Session 
Q1 - 12:00 - 13:30
Q2 - 13:30 - 15:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 15:00 - 16:30
Q4 - 16:30 - 18:00
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (5 minute candles) — 90 Minute Cycle.

Micro Cycles: Dividing the 90 Minute Cycle yields 22.5 Minute Quarters, also known as Micro Sessions or Micro Quarters:
 
Asian Session
Q1/1 18:00:00 - 18:22:30
Q2     18:22:30 - 18:45:00
Q3     18:45:00 - 19:07:30
Q4     19:07:30 - 19:30:00
Q2/1 19:30:00 - 19:52:30 (True Session Open)
Q2/2 19:52:30 - 20:15:00
Q2/3 20:15:00 - 20:37:30
Q2/4 20:37:30 - 21:00:00
Q3/1 21:00:00 - 21:23:30
etc.    21:23:30 - 21:45:00
London Session
00:00:00 - 00:22:30  (True Daily Open)
00:22:30 - 00:45:00
00:45:00 - 01:07:30
01:07:30 - 01:30:00
01:30:00 - 01:52:30  (True Session Open)
01:52:30 - 02:15:00
02:15:00 - 02:37:30
02:37:30 - 03:00:00
03:00:00 - 03:22:30
03:22:30 - 03:45:00
03:45:00 - 04:07:30
04:07:30 - 04:30:00
04:30:00 - 04:52:30
04:52:30 - 05:15:00
05:15:00 - 05:37:30
05:37:30 - 06:00:00
New York AM Session
06:00:00 - 06:22:30
06:22:30 - 06:45:00
06:45:00 - 07:07:30
07:07:30 - 07:30:00
07:30:00 - 07:52:30  (True Session Open)
07:52:30 - 08:15:00
08:15:00 - 08:37:30
08:37:30 - 09:00:00
09:00:00 - 09:22:30
09:22:30 - 09:45:00
09:45:00 - 10:07:30
10:07:30 - 10:30:00
10:30:00 - 10:52:30
10:52:30 - 11:15:00
11:15:00 - 11:37:30
11:37:30 - 12:00:00
New York PM Session
12:00:00 - 12:22:30
12:22:30 - 12:45:00
12:45:00 - 13:07:30
13:07:30 - 13:30:00
13:30:00 - 13:52:30  (True Session Open)
13:52:30 - 14:15:00
14:15:00 - 14:37:30
14:37:30 - 15:00:00
15:00:00 - 15:22:30
15:22:30 - 15:45:00
15:45:00 - 15:37:30
15:37:30 - 16:00:00
16:00:00 - 16:22:30
16:22:30 - 16:45:00
16:45:00 - 17:07:30
17:07:30 - 18:00:00
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30 second candles) — 22.5 Minute Cycle.

The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. Start counting the quarters from the first full week, meaning if the first week relating to the traditional month is a partial week, it is omitted and viewed as distortion. The first full week of the month is the first quarter, the second week is the second quarter, the third week is the third quarter and the fourth week is the fourth quarter.

 
Daye (Feb 19, 2024) - Quarterly Theory - The Secret ICT Trading Strategy.

The Weekly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one day each. Monday is the first quarter, Tuesday is the second quarter, Wednesday is the third quarter and Thursday is the fourth quarter. Friday is not included into the weekly cycle due to the fact that it has its own specific function.

The Daily Cycle is comprised of four quarters, six hours each, which perfectly aligns with the four trading sessions of a trading day. The first quarter is the Asian session, the second quarter is the London session, the third quarter is the New York session and the fourth quarter is the afternoon session. 
 
Each Session is comprised of four quarters, 90 minutes each. During the Asian session, the 90 minute cycles are as follows: 18:00 to 19.30 is the first quarter, 19.30 to 21:00 is the second quarter, 21:00 to 22:30 is the third quarter and 22:30 to 24:00 midnight is the fourth quarter. During the London session, the first quarter is 00.00 / midnight to 1:30. The second quarter is 1:30 to 3:00. The third quarter is 3:00 to 4:30, and the fourth quarter is 4:30 to 6:00. The New York AM Session starts with the first quarter at 6:00 and lasts to 7:30. The second quarter is 7:30 to 9:00. The third quarter is 9:00 to 10:30. And the fourth quarter is 10:30 to 12:00. The first quarter of the New York PM Session starts  at 12:00 and lasts to 13:30. The second quarter is 13:30 to 15:00. The third quarter is 15:00 to 16:30. And the fourth quarter is 16:30 to 18:00.

Now that we understand that time is fractal, we can begin to look into the functions of some of the quarters. Price is delivered by an algorithm. So there must be some initial input which is used to make decisions throughout each cycle. This is the function of Q1. Q1 dictates the quarters which follow, meaning Q1 is used as a barometer for forecasting market conditions in the subsequent quarters of each cycle. If the first quarter is overextended, expect the second quarter to consolidate, and if the first quarter is in a tight range, expect the second quarter to expand. 
 
 
True Opens are the main components of quarterly theory. There are specific openings of price which serve as a time-based filter for gauging manipulation swings or stop-hunts. True opens are the beginning of Q2 of every cycle.  True Opens are defined by these times:
  • Yearly True Open = 1st Monday of April.
  • Monthly True Open = 2nd Monday of the month.
  • Weekly True Open = 18:00 every Monday.
  • Daily True Open = 12:00 (Midnight).
  • NY AM Session True Open = 7:30
  • NY AM Session True Open = 13:30
  • Asian Session True Open = 19:30
  • London Session True Open = 1:30
 
Buy below True Open. Sell above True Open.
 
 
It is a simple concept to understand. If you are bullish within a specific cycle, you want to buy below its true open, and if you are bearish within a specific cycle, you want to sell above its true open. This will increase your accuracy tremendously, as key levels usually rest above or below true opens. Every cycle has its own true open. The true year open is the opening price of the first Monday of April. The true month open is the opening price of the second Monday of the month. The true week open is Monday at 18:00. The true day open is 12 o'clock midnight. The true open of the age on session is 19:30. The true open of the London session is 1:30. The true open of the New York session is 7:30. And the true open of the afternoon session is 13:30. The image to the right depicts how true opens function during bullish market environments.

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD
 
A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation = Judas Swing
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

After a tight Q1 range the Q2 Manipulation Phase begins. ICT calls this the Judas Swing. According to his algorithmic theory, the purpose of this fake move is to get traders offside. After Q2 the real move takes place: the Q3 distribution phase and is usually the easiest to trade as the previous quarter has already established a trend of the cycle. The fourth phase is X which can either continue to establish range of the cycle or reverse. In regards to this example, the fourth quarter is reversal. As you can see, price reverses at Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (PDAs) or key levels. 
 
 The AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) 
with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), 
and  a value of the time it ends trading (close).

Liquidity is induced when price breaches old highs and old lows while trading into key levels. If you usually trade with the one minute chart, you need a 15 minute PDA. If you usually trade with the five minute chart, you need a one hour PDA. If you usually trade with the 15 minute chart, you need a four hour PDA. If you usually trade with the one hour chart, you need a daily PDA. And if you usually trade with the four hour chart, you need a weekly PDA. 
 
Regarding X-AMD, the first quarter is the continuation or reversal of the previous Q. Of the previous cycle, using what we understand from the function of Q1, Q2 should then accumulate, resulting in high range price action. Q3 would then be the manipulation phase. However, the rules for the true opens are static. They don't change. The opening price of Q2 will always be its true open. So if the profile that you're looking at is X-AMD, even though accumulation takes place during Q2, you will use the opening price of Q2, which is its true open to gauge, the Judah swing, which will present itself more times or not in Q3. The last phase will be the distribution phase, which will be the easiest phase to trade in regards to X-AMD. 
 
Dividing a 90 Minute Cycle into 22.5 Minute Quarters (Micro Sessions).
 
Reference:
 
Quarterly Theory - the Hack of the Algorithm?
» Is this proof of the algorithm existing or not? I do think so;-) 
And it's mind blowing how this fractal quarterly theory happens over and over again. « 
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