Time ▾ Price ▴ Research: Quarterly Market Maker Cycle

Showing posts with label Quarterly Market Maker Cycle. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | Darya Filipenka

The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based algorithmic trading model for all assets. For the 10 AM Silver Bullet strategy, focus on 10-11 AM, using fair value gaps and Fibonacci levels for entry/stop adjustments, aiming for a minimum 3R risk-reward, and exit by 11 AM to maximize profits and minimize risks.

3:00 AM - 4:00 AM New York Time

A Silver Bullet trade begins with a directional move either up or down.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): After the directional move, a Fair Value Gap is left behind. This gap is an important indicator for the Silver Bullet trade.
Market Structure Shift (MSS) after taking liquidity. A Market Structure Shift is a shift in direction of price delivery. When price is going in a direction and shifts to the exactly opposite. It occurs when price takes out previous short-term lows or highs within a trend. Identifying these shifts allows for an understanding on which side of the market to be trading with. A Market Structure Shift must be energetic and leave behind displacement to ensure that market is looking to reverse.
Displacement is a location in price where someone with a lot of money comes into the marketplace with a strong conviction to move price higher or lower very quickly. Displacement is characterized by strong and quick price movement that leave behind Fair Value Gaps.
Entering the Fair Value Gap: Once the Fair Value Gap is identified, we enter inside it. This means we take a position in the market.
Target and Exit: I aim for Asian Session Liquidity Level or Higher Time Frame Premium/Discount levels.

10:00 AM - 11:00 AM New York Time
The first thing we think about is the previous New York PM session. If, within the first 30 minutes after the market opens, we're not close to the PM range, we focus on the London Session Raid. This refers to the time between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM, which is shown on the ETH chart. During the first 30 minutes after the market opens at 9:30 AM, we check where we stand compared to the previous PM session or London session. The market might go up or down, or it might stay stable. Then we wait for the Displacement between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.

Every day between 10 AM and 11 AM EST, identify an obvious pool of liquidity that has not been tapped into or engaged.
Wait for displacement (use 1-3-5 minute charts) towards liquidity pool between that time. Find a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the opposite of the targeted liquidity pool.
Wait for price to trade back into the Fair Value Gap and then reprice out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.

After identifying the Market Structure Shift (MSS), I recommend drawing an Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) retracement from the Swing Low (High) to the Swing High (Low). The optimal entry point for trades is typically at the 62% retracement level of that range. Once the trade is entered, the first target is typically set at the -27% extension level, and the second target is set at the -62% extension level.

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM New York Time
The first thing we focus on is the morning and lunch time trading sessions. Our goal is to identify the AM Session Buy Side and Sell Side Liquidity (BSL/SSL) or Lunch BSL/SSL once the PM Session starts (from 1:30 PM to 4:00 PM). This will serve as our reversal point during the afternoon Silver Bullet, where our target will be the opposite liquidity of the lunch/AM session. If it's Friday, our target can be 20-30% of the weekly range. This is known as the T.G.I.F. setup according to ICT.

We wait for the Displacement between 2 PM and 3 PM EST, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.
We look for a clear pool of untapped liquidity. It's recommended to pay attention to the liquidity levels during the AM and Lunch sessions.
Find a Fair Value Gap.
Wait for the price to trade back into the FVG and then move out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.

Once again, we usually consider the AM Session BSL/SSL or NY Lunch BSL/SSL as our clear liquidity pool that has been taken. Then we wait for Market Structure Shift (MSS) and displacement.