S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

S&P 500: The S&P 500 formed an 18-month cycle trough in early April 2025, followed by an 80-day cycle trough on June 23, and a recent 40-day cycle trough on July 16. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around mid-August, with the 20-week cycle FLD expected to provide support. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars): Expect a 40-day cycle peak soon, and a mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

The market is currently in a bullish trend, forming a second 40-day cycle peak soon, after which it should decline into the 20-week trough. Shorter cycle FLDs (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 80-day) will be monitored for peak confirmation and to generate downside targets. The trough may form above the 20-week FLD due to the bullish trend.

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ also formed an 18-month cycle trough in the April, and an 80-day cycle trough in mid-June. A second 40-day cycle peak is expected soon, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough in mid-August, with support at the 20-week FLD.

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars), same as in the S&P: 40-day cycle peak soon, 

and a rather shallow mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

Shorter cycle FLDs will be watched for peak confirmation. No significant changes have occurred since the last update, and both indices are expected to follow similar cycle paths.

 

Gold was potentially forming a significant cycle peak, possibly an 18-year cycle peak, around mid-April of 2025, but without confirmation, as its price moves in a contracting wedge and lacks the typical sharp, isolated peaks. 

 

Gold (weekly bars): 18-year peak likely still ahead (allow 1-2 years of leeway). 

Hence, doubts persist about the 18-year peak, with suggestions the April 22 high may be a 20-week or 40-week peak instead, the true 18-year peak likely still ahead due to cycle variation allowing a year or two of leeway. A 40-week cycle trough formed on May 15, and an 80-day cycle trough is expected in early August, with the price crossing below the 20-day FLD, targeting around $3,250, followed by a potential bounce. 

 

Bitcoin saw the 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 (the first in the current 54-month cycle), and a 40-week trough in April 2025, where the cycle FLD provided support. 

 

Bitcoin (weekly bars): next 18-month cycle trough by year-end

or early 2026 (the second in the current 54-month cycle).

 

Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs.
 

A 20-week cycle trough is expected in mid-to-late August, with a peak possibly already formed or imminent, followed by a slight decline into the trough before an 18-month cycle trough anticipated by year-end or early next year.

Reference:
David Hickson (28 July, 2025)  - Finding The Cycle Peak - Hurst Cycles Market Update . (video) 

 

See also:

Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes.  

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs. 

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak.
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.