April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional

minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.

 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.

 

Other Bullish Scenarios:

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

Bearish Scenarios:

 

 Next 20-day Hurst cycle due to bottom around April 9 (Wed)(±).

 

 

 FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 Real Values, suggesting risk as of late March 2025. 

 

 

Potential opportunity shorting the S&P 500 in
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.

Trigger Trades, March 27, 2025.

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle. 

TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

 

The Kondratieff Cycle and Its Subdivisions.

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

S&P 500 Retracement Levels for the Week of March 17-21 | Low of 2025 In?

S&P 500 (daily bars) - March 14: daily reversal (Total Lunar Eclipse); close above EMA (5). After worst start of year “5” in history, March 13 possible low of 2025? Hurst cycles suggest, not yet. Average seasonality now positive; the more specific one still isn't. Mid April high, early May low possible. Next week up into Tuesday or FOMC likely. Immediate targets: November low, last week's open, high, and 0.382 level. Week of March 17-21 = Manipulation-Phase in the weekly X-AMD pattern for March. 

 

March 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch.

 

Larry Williams (March 15, 2025) - Why the Market Is Ready to Rally. (video)

 

» There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. «

Larry Williams,  2000.

 

See also:

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle.

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.
orderbloque (2024) - Market Logic is Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

March 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Rather turbulent in recent years, with wild fluctuations and large gains and losses, March has been experiencing some significant end-of-quarter hits. In post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open strongly, and this strength has generally persisted until shortly after mid-month (as indicated by the dashed arrow below). At that point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy trading. In contrast, over the past 21 years, March has trended lower through mid-month before rallying in the second half.

 March strong early-month, mid-month losses with choppy trading,
often rally after Quadruple Witching (March 21), likely sharp decline the week after.

March is a particularly busy month. It marks the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching (Friday, March 21) and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from Wall Street. In recent years, March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish, but the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, with the DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply.

 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 26, 2025) - Beware The Ides of March.

 

 Updated $SPX July-Oct 2023 correction overlay:
1 week bounce then down into end of March final low. — Namzes, February 28, 2025.

See also:

Robert Miner (2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties. 

 The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

February 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Monthly high in US stocks around February 12 -14 (Wed-Fri), followed by avg. 3% decline into month-end.

 

Reference:

  Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 11, 2025) - Usual February Weak Trading.  

 Thursday and Friday before Presidents’ Day weekend: 

S&P 500 up 10 of last 14, DJIA up 11 times.

 

 S&P 500 seasonality: first ten sessions and last ten sessions of each month since 1928.

See also:

BeSomebodyFX (January 14, 2025) - The S&P 500's Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns. With statistics.

Robert C. Miner (January 8, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 1, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns.

 

 » This was my last bullish email for the first quarter. «
Scott Rubner, February 13, 2025.

 

2025 02 18 (Tue) = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees = negative = Rain Water [雨水]
2025 02 23 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees = negative
2025 02 24 (Mon) = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees = negative
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE, Jack Gillen, 1979.

The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics

Excluding the specifics of the decennial and presidential cycles, the average annual cycle of the S&P 500 since 2004 reveals five consistent seasonal periods, three of which are suitable for high-probability swing trades (90%+):

 

 S&P 500 average annual cycle (2014-2024).

Since the S&P rises 70% of the time, bearish trends are less consistent than bullish ones.

# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20. 

 

 Bearish from February 14-15 High to March 20 Low (2004-2023).

Average move lower: -2.35% (during 12 out of 20 years, down = 60%).

[ ¡ stats in tab referring to February 15 to March 1 (not March 20) - typo, error ?]

# 2: Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.

 

 Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.

 

 Bullish from June 29 Low to July 25 High (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +4.27% (during 15 out of 15 years, up = 100%).

 

# 4: September Chop: Lack of clear bullish or bearish trends; tentatively sideways to down.

 

September chop between September 1 High to September 30 Low (2009-2023).

Average move higher: +2.77%. Average move lower: -2.63% (during 8 out of 15 years, down = 53%).

# 5: November Rally:  S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.

 

Bullish from October 25 Low to November 30 High (2004-2023)

Average move higher: +4.88% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

Reference:

BeSomebodyFX (January 14, 2025) - The S&P 500's Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns. With statistics.

 

 S&P 500 Seasonality (2000-2025).

 

February averaged 0.1% gain over the past 

five decades, with positive results at 56%.

 

Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs

as a % of total Assets Under Management (1996-January 2025).