Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices for February 2025 | Jeff Hirsch
Tuesday, February 4, 2025
The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics
# 1: Mid-February to Late-March Decline: Price action shows an important top between February 14 and 15, followed by a bearish trend lasting into March 20.
# 3: July Rally: Since 2009, the S&P 500 has always risen between June 27 and July 25. Not most years. Every single year.
# 5: November Rally: S&P 500 consistently rising since 2004 and averaging a 4.88% gain.
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns │ Jeff Hirsch
Friday, December 6, 2024
Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President | Tom McClellan
The chart above compares the stock market performance under new presidents versus incumbents. The green line represents new presidents, while incumbent presidents tend to have a more stable market, especially in the first year of their second term, due to a stronger economy heading into reelection. New presidents often spend their first two years facing crises inherited from their predecessors, which can dampen investor sentiment. Incumbents, by contrast, don’t typically blame the previous administration and tend to have better market conditions in their second term.
There’s also a difference in stock market behavior after an election. When a new party wins, Wall Street initially celebrates, but the enthusiasm often fades when the new president faces the reality of governing, particularly in dealing with Congress. In 2020, the market behaved differently due to massive Fed intervention, with QE4 pumping $1 trillion per month. However, this was reversed in 2022 with quantitative tightening.
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
December Stock Market Performance in Election Years | Jeff Hirsch
Trading in December is typically holiday-inspired, driven by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker due to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring. Over the last 21 years, December’s first trading day has generally been bearish for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. A modest rally through the sixth or seventh trading day often fizzles out as the month progresses. Around mid-month, however, holiday cheer tends to take over, and tax-loss selling pressure fades, pushing the indexes higher with a brief pause near the end of the month. In election years, Decembers follow a similar pattern but with significantly larger historical gains in the second half of the month, particularly for the Russell 2000.
This serves as our first market indicator for the New Year. Years when the SCR fails to materialize are often followed by flat or down markets. Of the last seven instances where our SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year) did not occur, six were followed by flat years (1994, 2004, and 2015), two by severe bear markets (2000 and 2008), and one by a mild bear market that ended in February 2016. The absence of Santa this year was likely due to temporary inflation and interest rate concerns that quickly dissipated. As Yale Hirsch’s now-famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,
DJIA and S&P Bullish Into Year-End, with Bouts of Profit Taking | Day Hagan
Have equities brought forward the historically bullish returns of the fourth quarter following elections? Are we at risk of such an occurrence? While I still believe there will be instances of profit-taking as we approach year-end, I consider seasonal charts to be secondary; they are not as significant as primary indicators and models.
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade │ Jeff Hirsch
And of course, the "Santa Claus Rally," (2025 STA p. 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall."
We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%. Russell 2000 is up 77.78% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.34%.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 20, 2024) - Feast On Small Caps Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade.
See also:
Friday, November 15, 2024
U.S. Stock Market Seasonality of the Week Before Thanksgiving │ Jeff Hirsch
Should weakness materialize next week, it may be a solid set up for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and/or during typical November end-of-month strength.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 15, 2024) - Week before Thanksgiving DJIA Up 20 of 31, But Down 6 of last 7.
Sunday, November 10, 2024
S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection
Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.
Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish │ Jeff Hirsch
S&P 500 up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%.
NASDAQ up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%.
Russell 2000 up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.
Overall, from Election Day to year-end, the DJIA is up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%. The S&P 500 is up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%, and the Russell 2000 is up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points │ Jeff Hirsch
The first 5-6 trading days are typically bullish, followed by weakness in the week before Thanksgiving. The DJIA and S&P 500 strength has shifted to mirror the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the most bullish days occurring at the beginning and end of the month.
Alternative approach: 4-Year Presidential Cycle in Line with the Decennial Cycle.