January Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

January during midterm election years opens strong across the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. All of them typically peak around Wednesday, January 7, and fade some 3% heading into Monday, January 26.

January opens strong, then fades – weak into around the 26th.

  

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 7, 2026.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

A historical pattern where the S&P 500's first five trading days of the year rising over 1%—as seen in 2026 with

a 1.1% gain—correlates with positive full-year returns 87.1% of the time since 1950, averaging 15.7% gains.

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return and  Percent of Days Positive, for every calendar date (1950-2025).

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns.

2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Within the four-year presidential cycle, the midterm year represents the weakest phase for equities. It is characterized by low single-digit average returns and the cycle's deepest intra-year pullbacks. However, it also sets the stage for the most reliable and profitable recovery rallies, which typically extend well into the following year. Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Hurst cycles project 9-month troughs for January and October 2026 (as illustrated in the charts at the end of this article).  

 

 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern.

 

The first chart above shows the average seasonal performance of the DJIA (blue), S&P 500 (black), NASDAQ (green), and Russell 2000 (grey) from 1949 to 2024. All follow a consistent trajectory: a period of weakness from January through September, with average cumulative declines of 2–8%, followed by a fourth-quarter recovery that pushes annual returns toward positive territory.

6th Years of President Term Seasonal Pattern (1949-2024).

 

6th Year of 10-year Cycle Seasonal Pattern (1949-2024). 

 2026 Scenarios.

The next chart focuses on the S&P 500, comparing the broader midterm average (blue) against the sixth year of a presidency (red), second-term Republican midterms (green), and Jeffrey A. Hirsch's Stock Trader’s Almanac aggregate cycle (black). Across all categories, early-year gains eventually yield to mid-year volatility, and a strong rally consistently emerges from October onward.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

 

The second-term Republican midterm cycle (green) begins with a minor January dip, followed by a steady ascent that peaks at roughly 6-8% by April-June. After third-quarter volatility—where gains typically compress to a 1% floor in September—the market enters a year-end rally exceeding 8% by December.
 

 Performance of the S&P 500 during the Presidential Cycle: 
Midterm Years see both the largest pullbacks, and the best recovery rallies.

 S&P 500 Peak-to-Trough Declines in Midterm Election Years, 1950-2022.

The table above outlines every S&P 500 peak-to-trough decline during midterm election years between 1950 and 2022. These declines averaged 17.3% over 115 calendar days, typically beginning in late April and finding a floor by mid-August. However, all of these declines consistently acted as springboards, fueling recovery rallies that averaged 31.7% gains one year later.

 

 Edgar Lawrence Smith (1939) - Tides in the Affairs of Men: 

An Approach to the Appraisal of Economic Change.

  

2026 in the Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle. 

 

 J.M. Hurst's 18-Month Cyclic Model: Component cycles

and the aggregated Composite Cycle (thick black line).

 

 

While the ideal period for Hurst’s nominal 40-week cycle (also known as the 9-month cycle) is 272 days (38.86 weeks), current data from TimeSeriesSCC and Sentient Trader indicate a shorter realized average in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Over the last ten iterations, the measured 40-week cycle has averaged 257 to 262 days (36.7 to 37.4 weeks).

Projecting this duration forward from the major troughs of April 7 and April 21, 2025, the next 40-week cycle trough was initially expected to occur in a window between December 20, 2025, and January 8, 2026. However, considering the recent 80-, 40-, and 20-day troughs—including those from the DJI, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, and BTCUSD—shifts the projected window toward mid-late-January.

 

 

 Blancmange Curve.

 Gold, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1975-2024).

 

 Silver, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1973-2024).

 

 

 Copper, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1973-2024).

 

Crude Oil, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1984-2024).

 

Natural Gas, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1991-2024).

See also: 
Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast & Outlook: 6th Year of Presidency. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.

December Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Markets | Jeff Hirsch

December trading is traditionally shaped by holiday sentiment, with a general buying bias, though early-month markets can be choppy due to tax-loss selling and year-end adjustments. Historically, the first trading day of December has been bearish for the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 over the past 21 years, with the Russell 2000 seeing even sharper declines.

Choppy First Half, Then Year-End Rally.

 

The first half of December is typically choppy, with early gains often fading into mid-month. Then holiday tailwinds usually begin to dominate, lifting the major indexes. A brief consolidation in the Santa Claus rally around December 25 is common, even as the market continues to push toward higher prices into year-end.

 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 25, 2025) - Typical December — Choppy First Half Then Yearend Rally.

November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 30, 2025) - November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500.

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500: We are now in the final phase of this rally. 

 

SPX ES-minis: Down (= 80D peak?).

  

 Gold: 80-day cycle trough zone. Up Reversal?

 

Bitcoin: Heading towards the next 80-day cycle trough. Down.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100 | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 heads into Q4 with strong momentum after setting September all-time highs, a rare event that has almost always preceded year-end rallies. 

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

The post-election year is historically the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle, and 2025’s unusually strong May–October stretch strengthens the case for further gains.

September new all-time highs historically bullish for Q4.

 

S&P 500 performance after top 20 greatest Worst Six Months (May-October):

No losses in Q4 and up >5% since 1950.

 

Q4 Market Magic. 

  

October’s volatility often marks a final shakeout before the market’s “Best Six Months” (November–April) and the NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” (November–June). These periods, long captured by tactical switching strategies, have consistently outperformed and now align with a market already in record territory.

 

2026 Outlook: Midterm Bottom Picker's Paradise.

50% Profit Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High.

 

Recent pullbacks tied to AI earnings and fiscal risks have been shallow, leaving breadth and trend intact. With growth solid, inflation contained, and policy bias shifting toward support, the seasonal and macro backdrop favors continuation of the bull run. We project the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 by year-end, a gain of roughly 20 percent.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 30, 2025) - S&P 7100 By Yearend! Your Roadmap to a Monster Q4 Rally. (video)

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years. 

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

October has typically opened on a soft note, with mixed results on its first trading day. The second day has tended to be weak—except for the Russell 2000—before a rebound on day three. 

 

That strength often gives way to further declines through the seventh or eighth trading day, where the market has historically found support and begun a rally lasting into mid-month and beyond. In post-election years since 1950, October has been stronger from the outset, with gains extending through the 15th or 16th trading day before fading into month-end.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - Typical October Performance: Choppy Recent Years but Stronger in Post-Election Years.

The S&P 500 is bullishly defying bearish expectations, setting five or more new all-time highs in historically bearish September. With our best-case 2025 forecast firmly in play and the Super AI-Tech Boom accelerating, the index could surge to 7,100 within the next three months.

 Detrended Seasonality Charts.

 

See also:
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

September Seasonality of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

With Fed scheduled to make an announcement on September 17, the 12th trading day, it appears the market is pulling typical mid-month gains forward.

 Average September Market Performance 204-2024.

 

Once the market gets the interest rate cut it expects, it still may not be enough to avoid historical end-of-Q3 weakness.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, September 9, 2025.  

 

 

 

2025 S&P 500 Equal Weight Cycles Composite (One-Year Seasonal Cycle, 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle, 10-Year Decennial Cycle, 1928-2024), 

Ned Davis Research, August 8, 2025.

 

September in post-election years exhibits a bearish trend with an overall average decline of -1.0% since 1950 and -0.93% from 1928-2024, driven by a -0.36% average in the first ten days and a steeper -1.13% in the last ten, reflecting policy uncertainty and late-month weakness. 

 

Detrended Seasonality Charts.

 
The market often starts with Day 1 showing a bearish tilt, down ~58% of the time since 2008 with an average decline of -0.3% to -0.5%, influenced by low post-Labor Day volume.

Days 2–5 display mixed performance with a slight downward bias due to portfolio rebalancing and "window dressing" by fund managers, while mid-September (Days 6–15) sees amplified losses, with Day 6 at -0.17%, Day 7 at -0.22%, Day 10 at -0.26%, and Day 15 (quadruple witching) at -0.25%, marked by heightened volatility averaging -0.48% in post-election years. 

 

S&P 500 average performance per day and daily percentage hit rate (1928-2024).

This mid-month weakness is tied to market adjustments and quadruple witching dynamics, contributing to a cumulative bearish shift.

 

S&P 500 seasonality first ten sessions and lst ten sessions of the month since 1928.

Late September (Days 16–20) offers a modest 0.2% bounce, though inconsistent and often fading into choppy trading by Days 25–30, which remain neutral to slightly bearish due to end-of-quarter portfolio adjustments. Hit rates drop below 50% mid-to-late month, and a 4.2% standard deviation in early September peaks mid-month, underscoring volatility.