December Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Markets | Jeff Hirsch

December trading is traditionally shaped by holiday sentiment, with a general buying bias, though early-month markets can be choppy due to tax-loss selling and year-end adjustments. Historically, the first trading day of December has been bearish for the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 over the past 21 years, with the Russell 2000 seeing even sharper declines.

Choppy First Half, Then Year-End Rally.

 

The first half of December is typically choppy, with early gains often fading into mid-month. Then holiday tailwinds usually begin to dominate, lifting the major indexes. A brief consolidation in the Santa Claus rally around December 25 is common, even as the market continues to push toward higher prices into year-end.

 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 25, 2025) - Typical December — Choppy First Half Then Yearend Rally.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

2025 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern since 1949.

  

 2026 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern since 1949.

 

Nicholas D. Savino: S&P 500 Forecast for December 2025.

 

See also:
Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 30, 2025) - November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500.

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500: We are now in the final phase of this rally. 

 

SPX ES-minis: Down (= 80D peak?).

  

 Gold: 80-day cycle trough zone. Up Reversal?

 

Bitcoin: Heading towards the next 80-day cycle trough. Down.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

S&P 500 Year-End Outlook: Strong Seasonal Setup Targets 7100 | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 heads into Q4 with strong momentum after setting September all-time highs, a rare event that has almost always preceded year-end rallies. 

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

The post-election year is historically the most bullish phase of the four-year cycle, and 2025’s unusually strong May–October stretch strengthens the case for further gains.

September new all-time highs historically bullish for Q4.

 

S&P 500 performance after top 20 greatest Worst Six Months (May-October):

No losses in Q4 and up >5% since 1950.

 

Q4 Market Magic. 

  

October’s volatility often marks a final shakeout before the market’s “Best Six Months” (November–April) and the NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” (November–June). These periods, long captured by tactical switching strategies, have consistently outperformed and now align with a market already in record territory.

 

2026 Outlook: Midterm Bottom Picker's Paradise.

50% Profit Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High.

 

Recent pullbacks tied to AI earnings and fiscal risks have been shallow, leaving breadth and trend intact. With growth solid, inflation contained, and policy bias shifting toward support, the seasonal and macro backdrop favors continuation of the bull run. We project the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 by year-end, a gain of roughly 20 percent.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 30, 2025) - S&P 7100 By Yearend! Your Roadmap to a Monster Q4 Rally. (video)

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years. 

Wayne Whaley (September 27, 2025) - S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

October has typically opened on a soft note, with mixed results on its first trading day. The second day has tended to be weak—except for the Russell 2000—before a rebound on day three. 

 

That strength often gives way to further declines through the seventh or eighth trading day, where the market has historically found support and begun a rally lasting into mid-month and beyond. In post-election years since 1950, October has been stronger from the outset, with gains extending through the 15th or 16th trading day before fading into month-end.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - Typical October Performance: Choppy Recent Years but Stronger in Post-Election Years.

The S&P 500 is bullishly defying bearish expectations, setting five or more new all-time highs in historically bearish September. With our best-case 2025 forecast firmly in play and the Super AI-Tech Boom accelerating, the index could surge to 7,100 within the next three months.

 Detrended Seasonality Charts.

 

See also:
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

September Seasonality of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

With Fed scheduled to make an announcement on September 17, the 12th trading day, it appears the market is pulling typical mid-month gains forward.

 Average September Market Performance 204-2024.

 

Once the market gets the interest rate cut it expects, it still may not be enough to avoid historical end-of-Q3 weakness.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, September 9, 2025.  

 

 

 

2025 S&P 500 Equal Weight Cycles Composite (One-Year Seasonal Cycle, 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle, 10-Year Decennial Cycle, 1928-2024), 

Ned Davis Research, August 8, 2025.

 

September in post-election years exhibits a bearish trend with an overall average decline of -1.0% since 1950 and -0.93% from 1928-2024, driven by a -0.36% average in the first ten days and a steeper -1.13% in the last ten, reflecting policy uncertainty and late-month weakness. 

 

Detrended Seasonality Charts.

 
The market often starts with Day 1 showing a bearish tilt, down ~58% of the time since 2008 with an average decline of -0.3% to -0.5%, influenced by low post-Labor Day volume.

Days 2–5 display mixed performance with a slight downward bias due to portfolio rebalancing and "window dressing" by fund managers, while mid-September (Days 6–15) sees amplified losses, with Day 6 at -0.17%, Day 7 at -0.22%, Day 10 at -0.26%, and Day 15 (quadruple witching) at -0.25%, marked by heightened volatility averaging -0.48% in post-election years. 

 

S&P 500 average performance per day and daily percentage hit rate (1928-2024).

This mid-month weakness is tied to market adjustments and quadruple witching dynamics, contributing to a cumulative bearish shift.

 

S&P 500 seasonality first ten sessions and lst ten sessions of the month since 1928.

Late September (Days 16–20) offers a modest 0.2% bounce, though inconsistent and often fading into choppy trading by Days 25–30, which remain neutral to slightly bearish due to end-of-quarter portfolio adjustments. Hit rates drop below 50% mid-to-late month, and a 4.2% standard deviation in early September peaks mid-month, underscoring volatility.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

S&P 500: The S&P 500 formed an 18-month cycle trough in early April 2025, followed by an 80-day cycle trough on June 23, and a recent 40-day cycle trough on July 16. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around mid-August, with the 20-week cycle FLD expected to provide support. 

 

S&P 500 (daily bars): Expect a 40-day cycle peak soon, and a mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

The market is currently in a bullish trend, forming a second 40-day cycle peak soon, after which it should decline into the 20-week trough. Shorter cycle FLDs (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 80-day) will be monitored for peak confirmation and to generate downside targets. The trough may form above the 20-week FLD due to the bullish trend.

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ also formed an 18-month cycle trough in the April, and an 80-day cycle trough in mid-June. A second 40-day cycle peak is expected soon, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough in mid-August, with support at the 20-week FLD.

 

 NASDAQ (daily bars), same as in the S&P: 40-day cycle peak soon, 

and a rather shallow mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

Shorter cycle FLDs will be watched for peak confirmation. No significant changes have occurred since the last update, and both indices are expected to follow similar cycle paths.

 

Gold was potentially forming a significant cycle peak, possibly an 18-year cycle peak, around mid-April of 2025, but without confirmation, as its price moves in a contracting wedge and lacks the typical sharp, isolated peaks. 

 

Gold (weekly bars): 18-year peak likely still ahead (allow 1-2 years of leeway). 

Hence, doubts persist about the 18-year peak, with suggestions the April 22 high may be a 20-week or 40-week peak instead, the true 18-year peak likely still ahead due to cycle variation allowing a year or two of leeway. A 40-week cycle trough formed on May 15, and an 80-day cycle trough is expected in early August, with the price crossing below the 20-day FLD, targeting around $3,250, followed by a potential bounce. 

 

Bitcoin saw the 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 (the first in the current 54-month cycle), and a 40-week trough in April 2025, where the cycle FLD provided support. 

 

Bitcoin (weekly bars): next 18-month cycle trough by year-end

or early 2026 (the second in the current 54-month cycle).

 

Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs.
 

A 20-week cycle trough is expected in mid-to-late August, with a peak possibly already formed or imminent, followed by a slight decline into the trough before an 18-month cycle trough anticipated by year-end or early next year.

Reference:
David Hickson (28 July, 2025)  - Finding The Cycle Peak - Hurst Cycles Market Update . (video) 

 

See also:

Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.

Jeff Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes.  

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs. 

David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak.
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.

August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes | Jeff Hirsch

August was the best DJIA month from 1901–1951, driven by agriculture and farming. Since 1988, however, it has become the worst month for DJIA and Russell 2000, and the second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000, with average returns from +0.1% (NASDAQ) to –0.8% (DJIA). In August 2022, all major indexes fell over 4%; in 2023, losses exceeded 1.8%.

 

Down from August 4 (Mon) into August 19 (Tue), mid- to late-month sideways to down, up into month end.

Since 1950, in post-election years (dashed lines in chart above), August typically starts strong with average gains in the first two trading days, then declines until shortly after mid-month. A rebound of varying size and length usually follows, before major indexes end the month in choppy or sideways trading.

 

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023:

The S&P 500 rises steadily through July (blue STA Aggregate Cycle), 
peaks in early August, and pulls back into late August.
 

In post-election years, August has been even weaker: it’s the worst month for DJIA and Russell 1000, second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Average losses range from –0.5% (Russell 2000) to –1.5% (DJIA), with more down Augusts than up across all indexes.

  

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 28, 2025)  - Typical August Trading – Better Open in Post-Election Years but Still Historically Weak.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2025)  - August has been even weaker in post-election years. 

 

 

Bank of America (BoA) analyst Paul Ciana highlights a historical S&P 500 trend since 1928, where the average trend tended to be frontloaded in July, peaking by the end of August and correcting lower in September. However, since 2015 a similar pattern with a mid-August peak developed while the median trend sees a late September peak.

The summer doldrums (late June to early September) typically see 20-40% lower trading volumes and variable volatility due to reduced market participation. Equities, bonds, commodities, and forex show subdued activity, with occasional volatility spikes due to low liquidity, and, in August 2025, possibly from more US tariffs craze and geopolitical events. 

 

Namzes, July 26, 2025.

  

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (see above) reveals extreme positioning in VIX futures, with dealers (= banks, broker-dealers, intermediaries managing risk from client trades, not speculating) holding substantial long positions and CTAs (= hedge funds, who are on the other side of the trade, typically as speculators) showing their largest short exposure since November–December 2021—a pattern that has frequently preceded spikes in the VIX. This unusual market setup suggests potential volatility in early August 2025 and aligns with Namze's forecast of an 80-day cycle low in the VIX during that period. However, the resolution may be delayed due to the scale of the positioning. 

Namzes' 2025 S&P 500 Roadmap, December 27, 2024. 

According to BofA Global Research, the average US Presidential Cycle Year 1

(1928-2024) peaks in July and falls around 8% by year-end.

 

A seasonal cycle analysis by Ned Davis Research on the 2025 S&P 500 composite—blending the standard seasonal, 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles—projects a current peak, choppy action through October, a late-year drawdown,

and a strong Q4 rally. August and September appear as potential weak spots.

 Bitcoin Seasonal Pattern 2018-2024 vs 2025.

 

See also:

 David Hickson (July 14, 2025)  - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Hurst Cycle Troughs.

TPR (February 4, 2025)  - The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

 Robert Miner (January 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Party.

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.