Showing posts with label Jeffrey A. Hirsch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeffrey A. Hirsch. Show all posts

Monday, July 14, 2025

Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 
 
Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week
cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.
 
A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 
 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

 
Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.
 

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators.
 
 
Reference:
 
 
Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs | David Hickson

The S&P 500 analysis highlights a significant 18-month cycle trough formed in early April 2025, potentially of greater magnitude, driving recent bullish price action. An 80-day cycle trough occurred in the third week of June, aligning with the 80-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), a key cycle tool indicating support levels. 
 
An 18-month cycle trough in April 2025 has fueled recent gains, with an 80-day cycle trough in June confirming support via the FLD. A 40-day trough is due late July, followed by a deeper 20-week trough in August, forming a bullish M-shape pattern under longer-cycle upward pressure.
 
The dashed red composite model line aggregates cycle wavelengths and amplitudes to project future price movements. It closely mirrors past price action and forecasts a 40-day cycle trough in the third or final week of July, followed by a 20-week cycle trough around the third week of August. The composite model suggests a 20-week cycle peak is imminent or may have just occurred, with prices expected to decline into the 40-day trough, bounce slightly, and then fall into the 20-week trough, forming a bullish, distorted M-shape due to upward pressure from longer 18-month and 40-week cycles. The 20-week FLD will be critical for confirming support at the August trough, with shorter FLDs used to verify the peak.

Upcoming 20 Week Cycle Peak in the S&P 500.
 
The NASDAQ mirrors this pattern, with a significant cycle trough in April (at least 40-week magnitude, possibly 18-month), and a similar sequence of a 40-day trough in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The composite model line indicates a smaller bounce after the 40-day trough compared to the S&P 500, but bullish pressure persists due to the April trough’s magnitude.
 
Tracking similarly to the S&P, the NASDAQ saw a major April trough (40-week or 18-month), with a 40-day cycle low expected in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The bounce may be smaller than the S&P’s, but bullish momentum continues due to the strength of the April trough.

 
The 80-day FLD supported the June trough, and the 20-week FLD will be monitored to confirm support for the August trough, especially if the April trough matches the S&P 500’s 18-month magnitude. The principle of commonality underscores the synchronized movements across these markets. While the composite model’s price projections are less reliable due to cycle amplitude and wavelength variations, its shape provides a clear guide for expected market trends over the next several weeks.
 

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.
 
The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.
 
 

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Lively trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital.

Typical Post-Election Year July: Early Strength, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed.

This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat final third. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a modestly bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period with some modest weakness just ahead of Independence Day.

 
Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac are showing that since 1950, July has been the strongest month for both the DJIA and the S&P 500 in post-election years. Specifically, the DJIA has averaged a 2.1% gain, ranking first among months, with 15 positive years and only 3 negative years. The S&P 500 mirrors this, averaging a 2.2% gain, also ranking first, with 12 positive and 6 negative years. 
 
This covers 19 presidential election cycles from 1952 to 2020, providing a robust dataset spanning post-war booms, recessions, and technological shifts. A notable statistic is the 10-year streak of positive July returns for both indices from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a recent intensification of this seasonal pattern. The table below summarizes the performance:  
 

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.
 
 
 
% of Months in Which SPY Closed higher Than It Opened From 2015 to 2024
 
 
See also:

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500 | David Hickson

The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.
 
The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled, 
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.
 
If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
 
 A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter 
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).

The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.

 

Monday, June 2, 2025

June 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled.  
 
 Typical June Pattern of the S&P 500 in a Post-Election Year:
Early Strength: Starts with a slight uptrend, weaker than NASDAQ (2.5%) or Russell 2000. 
Mid-Month Dip: Drops around days 10-15 due to profit-taking or uncertainty. 
Late-Month Recovery: Rallies late June to a neutral or positive close, less than small-cap/tech gains.
 
So far in June 2025, Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gained 3.8% and NASDAQ ($QQQ) 2.5%, setting the stage for a typical brisk mid-month drop followed by a month-end rally, often led by technology and small caps.

Friday, May 16, 2025

S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls | Ryan Detrick

On average, it is 18.7% higher a year later, 20 out of 20 times since 1976:
Performance of S&P 500 after more than 58% of components reach new 20-day highs.


 

Can we get a pullback? 24% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are overbought with an RSI above 70, a threshold indicating potential price corrections; historically, since 2020, this condition has led to a 1-week pullback 55% of the time, with an average decline of 0.71%.
 
 
 
It wasn't long ago people were talking about the Death Cross in the SPX. Back then we pointed out that the last time the death cross occurred (2022), markets reversed aggressively and managed to overshoot the 200 day by around 3.5%. A similar overshoot now would take us to around 6k.
 

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional
minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.
 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

 
Other Bullish Scenarios:
 
Rob
ert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.
 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).