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Friday, July 25, 2025

August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes | Jeff Hirsch

August was the best DJIA month from 1901–1951, driven by agriculture and farming. Since 1988, however, it has become the worst month for DJIA and Russell 2000, and the second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000, with average returns from +0.1% (NASDAQ) to –0.8% (DJIA). In August 2022, all major indexes fell over 4%; in 2023, losses exceeded 1.8%.

Down from August 4 (Mon) into August 19 (Tue), mid- to late-month sideways to down, up into month end.

Since 1950, in post-election years (dashed lines in chart above), August typically starts strong with average gains in the first two trading days, then declines until shortly after mid-month. A rebound of varying size and length usually follows, before major indexes end the month in choppy or sideways trading.

S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023:

The S&P 500 rises steadily through July (blue STA Aggregate Cycle),
peaks in early August, and pulls back into late August.

In post-election years, August has been even weaker: it’s the worst month for DJIA and Russell 1000, second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Average losses range from –0.5% (Russell 2000) to –1.5% (DJIA), with more down Augusts than up across all indexes.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 28, 2025) - Typical August Trading – Better Open in Post-Election Years but Still Historically Weak.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2025) - August has been even weaker in post-election years.

Bank of America (BoA) analyst Paul Ciana highlights a historical S&P 500 trend since 1928, where the average trend tended to be frontloaded in July, peaking by the end of August and correcting lower in September. However, since 2015 a similar pattern with a mid-August peak developed while the median trend sees a late September peak.

The summer doldrums (late June to early September) typically see 20-40% lower trading volumes and variable volatility due to reduced market participation. Equities, bonds, commodities, and forex show subdued activity, with occasional volatility spikes due to low liquidity, and, in August 2025, possibly from more US tariffs craze and geopolitical events.

Namzes, July 26, 2025.

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (see above) reveals extreme positioning in VIX futures, with dealers (= banks, broker-dealers, intermediaries managing risk from client trades, not speculating) holding substantial long positions and CTAs (= hedge funds, who are on the other side of the trade, typically as speculators) showing their largest short exposure since November–December 2021—a pattern that has frequently preceded spikes in the VIX. This unusual market setup suggests potential volatility in early August 2025 and aligns with Namze's forecast of an 80-day cycle low in the VIX during that period. However, the resolution may be delayed due to the scale of the positioning.

Namzes' 2025 S&P 500 Roadmap, December 27, 2024.

According to BofA Global Research, the average US Presidential Cycle Year 1

(1928-2024) peaks in July and falls around 8% by year-end.

A seasonal cycle analysis by Ned Davis Research on the 2025 S&P 500 composite—blending the standard seasonal, 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles—projects a current peak, choppy action through October, a late-year drawdown,

and a strong Q4 rally. August and September appear as potential weak spots.

Bitcoin Seasonal Pattern 2018-2024 vs 2025.

TPR (February 4, 2025) - The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

Robert Miner (January 8, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Party.

Namzes (April 16, 2025) - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

Gold's price action has been challenging to analyze due to its recent flat trend, forming a wedge pattern. Gold is rising into an 80-day cycle peak, with potential for a higher price and a major 54-month cycle peak ahead.

Gold is currently rising into an 80-day cycle peak, and a higher price is expected in the near term.

Peak-Based Analysis (price peaks are synchronized): The current 54-month cycle peak is not sharply isolated, reducing confidence in its placement. A larger, sharper peak is expected, potentially displaced to the right, possibly reaching higher prices within the ongoing 80-day cycle peak.
Trough-Based Analysis (cycles align at troughs, which is mathematically incompatible with peak synchronization): The composite model (combining both analyses) shows divergence from the actual price, particularly recently, despite aligning at the 80-day cycle trough. This discrepancy suggests the major cycle peak is mispositioned, reinforcing the likelihood of a significant peak forming soon.

Close monitoring is needed due to the analysis discrepancy and non-ideal peak characteristics.

Reference:
David Hickson (14 July 2025) - Hurst Cycles Analysis for Gold. (video)

TPR (2018) - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

Gold (CMX) 40 Year Seasonality (1980-2019).

Gold likely remains in a broader bullish Elliott Wave structure, still supporting the expectation of a new all-time high. The preferred view is that wave four ended at $3,123 and wave five has begun, or that gold is forming an ending diagonal, having completed wave one and now correcting in wave two. This would lead to a five-wave diagonal, typically marked by overlaps, ultimately reaching new highs in a less aggressive fashion. The alternate view is that gold remains in an extended wave four correction. However, this is seen as less likely due to the disproportionate time it would take compared to previous subwaves, making it structurally inconsistent with typical Elliott Wave proportions.

Elliott Wave structure favors another all-time high around $3,600 depending on

how Wave 5 unfolds [see the above mentioned major 54-month Hurst cycle peak].

Support at $3,123 and especially $2,970 remains critical. Staying above these levels keeps the bullish case intact. A decisive break below $2,970 with increased downside momentum would raise the likelihood that gold has topped. The structure still favors another all-time high, with a potential target around $3,600. Unless $2,970 breaks with conviction, the market bias remains upward, with summer consolidation expected to resolve higher into the fall and year-end.

Following the completion of Wave 5, gold is expected to undergo a longer-term, multi-year retracement—either to around $2,541, or more significantly, by 61.8% to 78.6%, potentially reaching levels near $1,379.50 or even $884.20.

Reference:
HKCM Global (June 27, 2025) - Gold Bull Market Losing Steam – Time to Reposition? (video)

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.

The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 11, 2025) - July Monthly Options Expiration Week – NASDAQ Down 7 Straight.

Positive Seasonality for Nasdaq (1990-2024) ends this week. SPX is similar.

Detrended Seasonality for S&P 500 (1990-2024).

Namzes (July 12, 2025) - S&P 500 Forecast Update.

Namzes (July 12, 2025) - S&P 500 2025 - 1965 Analogue Update.

Nominal 20-Day Hurst Cycle in the S&P 500.

Branimir Vojcic (July 5, 2025) - The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500.
David Hickson (June 30, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500.

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025) - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.

Thursday, April 17, 2025

The S&P 500 Has Just Triggered a Death Cross | Guilherme Tavares

On April 14th, the S&P 500 triggered a 'death cross.' This occurs when its 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, historically signaling potential declines, as seen in March 2022, though not always predictive of major downturns.

» That's it folks. Place your bets. «

Guilherme Tavares, April 17, 2025.

However, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio (P/E Ratio CAPE), exceeding two standard deviations above its long-term trend, suggests overvaluation, aligning with past market peaks in November 1929, October 2000, and March 2022. Previous instances of this combined signal preceded significant longer term market corrections.

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, is calculated by dividing

the current price of the S&P 500 by the 10-year moving average of its inflation-adjusted earnings.

The March 2022 and the April 2025 death crosses in the S&P 500 (daily bars).

S&P 500 Forward Returns when there is a 'Death Cross' (1953-2022).

» Should we care? Yes, we should. The forward-looking data isn't the best going out 6 months (red box). «

Grant Hawkridge, April 7, 2025.

The above table lists death cross events in the S&P 500 from 1953 to 2022, and provides forward returns over various time horizons (6 days, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) after each event:

Short-term returns (6 days) are volatile, with 11 of 18 instances showing negative returns. The average loss is small, suggesting the immediate impact of a death cross is inconsistent. For example, the +8.63% gain in 1962 contrasts with the -11.51% loss in 1978, indicating no clear directional bias in the very short term.
One-month returns lean bearish, with 13 of 18 instances negative. The worst case (-12.75% in 1929) aligns with the Great Depression’s onset, while the best case (+8.66% in 1978) shows occasional rebounds. The negative average suggests a death cross often precedes short-term weakness, though not always severe.
Three-month returns are more consistently negative, with 14 of 18 instances showing losses. The -22.13% drop in 1929 reflects extreme market stress, while the +14.91% gain in 1962 is an outlier. The stronger negative average (-3.16%) indicates that death crosses often signal broader market declines over a few months.
The six-month period shows the most pronounced bearish tendency, with 14 of 18 instances negative. The -35.97% loss in 1929 is the worst, tied to the Great Crash, while the +28.21% gain in 2020 reflects the rapid recovery post-COVID crash. The -4.81% average loss, emphasized in the table, suggests a death cross is a stronger bearish signal over this horizon, though exceptions exist.
One-year returns are mixed, with 10 of 18 instances positive. The +64.41% gain in 2020 is the highest, driven by post-COVID stimulus, while the -44.95% loss in 1929 is the lowest. The positive average (+1.97%) suggests that, over a year, the market often recovers or stabilizes after a death cross, reducing its long-term predictive power.

NDX's powerful 3.5-year cycle suggests the bigger trend should

be down into mid 2026. Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

3 dominant cycles on NDX daily chart say up into late May.

Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

Composite of the S&P 1965, 1998, and 2018 analogues (pink line), Namzes, April 18, 2025.

S&P 1998 vs 2025 Analogue (correlation = 96.6%; Lag = 9,695 days = 26.54 years),

Namzes, April 18, 2025.

Namzes (April 16, 2025) - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Moore Research (April 10, 2025) - DJIA 1926 vs 2025 Analogue = 97% Correlation.

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025) - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

Subu Trade (April 18, 2025) - Markets Report: is the worst over for stocks? We're in Phase 3 of the bottoming process.

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation | Namzes

S&P 500 (daily chart, 89.6% correlation as of April 13, 2025. Lag = 21,832 days = 59.77 years).

Namzes, April 16, 2025.

S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 [July 8, 1965 vs April 16, 2025 (Wed) = 21,832 days = 59.77 years].

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025) - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

David Hickson (April 7, 2025) - Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ.
Martin Armstrong (April 7, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time.

On April 16, 2025, the DeMark 9-13 Sequential count is at 9-12, hinting at a

potential trend exhaustion in S&P 500 futures and a reversal on April 17.

Chris Ciovacco, April 16, 2025.

The VIX cycle from > 50 to < 30 is on track to trigger today. A bear killer.

Jason Goepfert, April 15, 2025.

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March,

followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026,

below the October 2023 low.

The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline.

Reference:

Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.