Price Performance vs. Zodiac Signs, Lunar Phase & Mercury Retrograde

S&P 500 (SPX) performance by color-shaded Zodiac Signs (2016–2026),

New Moon, Full Moon and rosa-shaded Mercury Retrograde periods. 

S&P 500 Strategy: Go long during bullish zodiac phases and short during bearish phases; hold through phase end with a 2% stop-loss (1% tighter stops improved results). Starting with $1,000, a 10 year walk-forward case study produced $5,410. The win rate exceeded RSI, Stochastic, and MFI, slightly outperforming Stochastic. Low-win-rate signs (e.g., Gemini at 39%) can be omitted. 

Augmented version: Enter long only when Stochastic (14,1,3) ≤20 during a bullish phase; enter short only when ≥80 during a bearish phase; hold through the full phase. Python backtest: $18,571.79 over two years with a 66.67% win rate. 

Using 10 years of S&P 500, Mercury retrograde periods frequently preceded major pivots, with post-retrograde directional flips.

Upcoming Events (dates and times for New York City):

Jul 29 (Wed), 2026 07:34 EDT — Full Moon (Buck Moon)

Aug 12 (Wed), 2026 12:11 EDT — New Moon

Aug 23 (Sun), 2026 00:19 EDT — enters Virgo (150 deg from 0 deg Aries = vernal equinox)

Aug 27 (Thu), 2026 19:18 EDT — Full Moon (Sturgeon Moon / Lunar Eclipse)

Sep 10 (Thu), 2026 21:12 EDT — New Moon

Sep 22 (Tue), 2026 16:05 EDT — enters Libra (180 deg) (Fall Equinox)

Sep 26 (Sat), 2026 05:49 EDT — Full Moon (Corn / Harvest Moon)
Oct 10 (Sat), 2026 08:51 EDT — New Moon

Oct 22 (Thu), 2026 23:00 EDT — enters Scorpio (210 deg)

Oct 24 (Sat), 2026 03:02 EDT — Mercury Retrograde Begins

Oct 25 (Sun), 2026 15:38 EDT — Full Moon (Hunter's Moon)
Nov 08 (Sun), 2026 23:02 EST — New Moon

Nov 13 (Fri), 2026 11:01 EST — Mercury Direct Resumes

Nov 21 (Sat), 2026 16:00 EST — enters Sagittarius (240 deg)

Nov 24 (Tue), 2026 00:53 EST — Full Moon (Beaver Moon)
Dec 08 (Tue), 2026 15:49 EST — New Moon

Dec 21 (Mon), 2026 10:50 EST — Capricorn (270 deg) (Winter Solstice)

Dec 23 (Wed), 2026 09:28 EST — Full Moon (Cold Moon)

 

Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX; 2016–2026) 

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD; 2016–2026) 

Gold (XAUUSD; 2016–2026) 

Silver (XAGUSD; 2016–2026)

 

WTI Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD; 2016–2026)

 

Dollar Index (DXY; 2016–2026)

 

Reference:

Astrology Toolkit [SS] TradingView Indicator coded by Steversteves. 

 

Forecast Based on "Moon Synodic + Sun in Virgo" Model | Sergey Tarassov

 

 

 [HERE]

 

See also:
TPR (2024) - 24 Chinese Solar Terms in 2025. Winter Begins Today (立冬 - Lì Dōng).
Tianbao Zhou et al. (2021) - Chinese Stock Indices, Gann Time Theory and Solar Terms.
W.D. Gann (1950s) - How to Divide the Yearly Time Period.

Gold Bull 2027-2032, Monetary Reset & EU Breakup | Martin Armstrong

Martin Armstrong correctly forecast the recent six-month correction in Gold and Silver, with Gold falling roughly 30% from $5,600 to $3,900 and Silver about 55% from $121 to $55. Both have since rebounded—Gold near $4,500 and Silver above $66—but Armstrong sees this as potentially only an oversold bounce. 

 

» Gold and Silver bull market from Q1 2027 into 2032. «

He argues that precious metals hedge primarily against government, not inflation: Gold fell for 19 years from 1980–1999 despite rising government debt. The current correction reflects growing market complacency over Iran and Ukraine, while smarter money recognizes that neither conflict is likely to resolve cleanly. Armstrong expects the decisive structural turn in Q1 2027, launching a sustained metals bull market into roughly 2032, followed by a monetary reset—marking the peak of the current public-debt cycle and a systemic shift away from pure fiat structures. Central banks lack effective tools against cost-push inflation from such shocks.

 

» This will lead to dramatic changes. «

 

The EU risks breakup by around 2029. Europe's trajectory increasingly resembles the systems Eastern Europeans fled. Governments act solely in their own interest; free-speech and media constraints (illustrated during COVID and through pressure on journalists) demonstrate the pattern. Energy attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure are already creating shortages that force Russia toward imports and are expected to drive energy prices higher.

August 2026 Eclipses: Financial Markets & Monetary Regimes | Margo Amala

The August 2026 eclipse season is a potentially significant period for markets, monetary systems, geopolitical developments, and political leadership. The August 12 (Wed) total solar eclipse at 20° Leo centers sovereignty, executive authority, leadership, and public power. It belongs to Saros 126, historically associated with recessions, financial dislocations, geopolitical shocks, and leadership transitions. The August 28 (Fri) Pisces lunar eclipse completes the current Pisces series, marking the culmination of a decades-long Pisces cycle and a transition away from themes of uncertainty, ambiguity, and systemic fluidity.

Leo-Pisces / Saros 126 Eclipses and Major Events, 1836 to 2026. 

The Leo–Pisces axis and Saros 126 repeatedly coincide with major political and financial turning points. In 1971, a Leo–Pisces eclipse sequence preceded the August 15 Nixon Shock, which ended dollar convertibility into gold and transformed the international monetary system. In 1980, the cycle coincided with Reagan's defeat of Carter and a major silver-market peak. In 1990, a Saros 126 eclipse occurred shortly before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. In 1998, the Leo–Pisces transition coincided with the final phase of the dot-com boom. In 2008, Saros 126 preceded the Lehman Brothers collapse by approximately 45 days. Earlier monetary precedents include the 1836 Specie Circular, the 1893 Silver Purchase Act, and the 1931 sterling crisis preceding Britain's abandonment of the gold standard.

Partial Solar Eclipse (August 12, 2026) and Partial Lunar Eclipse (August 28, 2026) over New York.

Saros 126 has a reported historical correlation of approximately 75% with recessions occurring within two months of the eclipse. Equity-market behavior tends to show a two-stage pattern: relatively positive short-term performance followed by slower deterioration over subsequent months, consistent with a rolling recession or delayed structural repricing rather than an immediate collapse. Individual equities can experience corresponding leadership and valuation inflection points; Tesla, for example, is currently associated with a breakdown around a 20-week cycle low.

Eclipse Paths of Saros 126 from 1179 to 2459.

Precious metals occupy a central position in the historical pattern because major Leo–Pisces and Saros 126 periods repeatedly coincide with monetary-system transitions. The 1971 Nixon Shock is the principal precedent: the eclipse sequence coincided with a fundamental redefinition of money, monetary convertibility, and control of the global monetary system. Comparable historical episodes include the 1836, 1893, and 1931 monetary disruptions. Gold and silver are currently approaching or experiencing a 20-week cycle low, creating a technical timing point within the broader monetary-cycle pattern. The key issue is therefore not merely metal-price volatility but a potential reassessment of currency, monetary authority, and the role of hard assets.

August 12, 2026 Solar Eclipse Map of Path on earth.

 

Historical backtesting of Saros Series 126 and the 19-year Metonic cycle reveals a sharp decoupling between equity markets and underlying macroeconomic conditions:

► Recession Risks: Dating back to 1828, 75% of total eclipses in Saros Series 126 (8 of 12) preceded an economic recession within two months. This aligns with the Lunar Nodes shifting into the Aquarius-Leo axis—a movement historically correlated with business cycle troughs.
► Equity Trajectory: Following Metonic cycle eclipses, short-term equity performance is overwhelmingly bullish, boasting positive market returns 87.5% of the time at 1 month and 75% at 3 months. However, returns decay steadily to 50% at 6 months and 37.5% at 12 months, signaling a gradual market roll-off rather than an immediate crash.

The geopolitical expression is concentrated around sovereignty, resources, territorial control, and strategic chokepoints. Astrocartographic emphasis includes Greenland, associated with resources and energy; Spain, associated with immigration and political leadership; and the Strait of Hormuz, associated with Saturnian restriction, strategic blockage, and constrained movement. Mars in Cancer reinforces protectionism, defensive nationalism, territorial concerns, and emotionally charged public reactions.

 

The central historical analogy is 1971, when a Leo–Pisces eclipse sequence coincided with a fundamental monetary-regime change and a structural transformation in precious metals. August 2026 combines the same eclipse-axis symbolism with a Saros 126 recession signal, a 20-week precious-metals cycle low, heightened geopolitical constraints, and visible questions surrounding political and monetary authority. 

The principal risk is therefore a synchronized transition across equities, precious metals, currencies, leadership structures, and geopolitical power rather than an isolated eclipse-driven market move.

Reference:

Margo Amala & K.M. Garland (August 11, 2026) - August Eclipse Season & Market Rotation. (video)

 

 

One of August's most concentrated astro-timing windows.

The August 12 eclipse hits Greenland and cuts directly through Reykjavík, Iceland. Look out for major moves in Arctic geopolitics, climate impact, rare earth mining.

Profits and losses in the DJIA during the four phases of the Moon.

 

See also:

Fred Espenak (2012) - Eclipses and the Saros.

TPR (2026) - The S&P 500 versus the Speed of the True Lunar Node. 

TPR (2026) - Louise McWhirter’s Forecasting Theory: The US Stock Market Through 2028.

TPR (2026) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast Based on Jack Gillen's Principles.

Silver Outlook 2026: 40-Week Cycle Low and $48–$49 Retest | Namzes

The August 2025 projection is pointing to a low forming around now, with the pink area representing the out-of-sample forecast. Concurrently, a 40-week cycle low is due now (see bottom panel), though it could result in a choppy bottom. Given the current dollar strength and its potential for a breakout, any upward move in precious metals might turn out to be a short-lived counter-rally. This setup could lead to new lows around October, where the next 20-week cycle low is scheduled to drop.

On the positive side, seasonality (middle panel) turns favorable next week, as July is historically a bullish month for the metals sector. 

 

Silver, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1973-2024).

 

Silver is currently in an intermediate downtrend, with a likely retest of the $48–$49 former all-time high serving as the final destination.

On the hourly chart, price is basing. I want to see acceptance above 59, which could allow it to retrace toward 63 at the 200-hour moving average, and then eventually up to around 70 near the 200-day moving average. Ultimately, the 73–77 zone remains the golden pocket.

The dollar (DXY) is currently driving the metals complex, meaning a pullback would be highly constructive for precious metals. My main thesis for 2026 is that the dollar should put in an 18-month cycle low in Q1 and start a sharp rally lasting into early fall (see bottom panel). That low formed right on time on January 27, and we are now in the peaking phase of the second 80-day cycle. Following the next 80-day cycle low, I expect a powerful upward move into the fall toward the 105 area.

 

From a structural standpoint, the Wyckoff accumulation pattern suggests a consolidation and retest of the 100 area is ahead, acting as a Last Point of Support (LPS) before the next leg higher. Because persistent dollar strength has been a major headwind for metals, if the USD weakens over the next few weeks, it should trigger a solid counter-rally across the metals sector.

 

Namzes, June 28, 2026.

Gold and Silver: Final Repricing Before Breakout | Dieter Lüscher

Dieter Lüscher of Premium Strategy Partners AG, one of Switzerland’s most recognized wealth managers, has issued a stark and timely warning on gold and silver. Known for managing ultra-high-net-worth portfolios and repeatedly ranked among the best in conservative risk strategies, Lüscher argues that the current price weakness is not what it appears. In his latest interview, he outlines a scenario that suggests the market may be approaching a turning point.

 

Silver’s multi-decade breakout above $50 is the linchpin. Holding this level confirms the long-term bullish thesis.

 

» In Gold the sell-off that started from 5,598 levels is correcting the last parabolic phase of the uptrend. Previous resistance at 4,550 levels becomes the new support. Long-term uptrend is intact. In the short-term we are seeing consolidation and a drop in volatility. A risk off environment in Global Markets can result in a correction in Gold given its liquidity and appreciation over the past couple of months. It can be used as a source of cash. « 

Aksel Kibar, March 21, 2026.

Lüscher’s core message is that the current weakness may be a structurally driven dislocation rather than a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals. If his assessment holds, the present environment could represent a transitional phase before stronger upward momentum resumes, potentially alongside a longer-term shift in global pricing influence.

  

The Quarter-End Dynamic

According to Lüscher, commercial banks and short-position holders continue to carry substantial exposure in the futures and options markets, with a significant expiry window just days away. The incentive structure is straightforward: downward pressure into expiry maximizes the likelihood that these options expire out of the money, allowing institutions to retain premium income. While this pattern has repeated for over a decade, Lüscher suggests the current setup may represent a late-stage iteration rather than a routine cycle.

 

The latest CFTC COT report details an increase of 3,779 gold short contracts by non-commercial traders (hedge funds), representing 377,900 ounces or approximately $1.55 billion in new downside exposure. This positioning coincided with a 72-hour gold price decline from $4,520 to $4,100. Total hedge fund short exposure currently stands at 56,092 contracts (5.61 million ounces), valued at $23 billion. Market structure remains heavily leveraged, with large speculators holding 215,961 long positions against 284,832 commercial short positions. This data suggests price volatility is driven by technical positioning and liquidity pressure rather than fundamental shifts.

A Potential Near-Term Bottom

Lüscher indicates that the market could be nearing a short-term bottom within days. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, he emphasizes that recent price action appears largely technical, driven more by derivatives positioning than by fundamental demand. Once the expiry window closes, he expects underlying demand dynamics to reassert themselves, potentially leading to a sharp reversal.

Shifting Pricing Power Toward Asia

Structural changes in global pricing mechanisms are also accelerating. India is moving toward pricing gold and silver ETFs based on domestic spot benchmarks rather than traditional London references, while China continues to promote yuan-denominated gold pricing in global markets. At the same time, inventory trends highlight divergence: Western exchange stocks have been declining, while Asian market dynamics are becoming increasingly influential.

»  Physical metal carries zero counterparty risk—exactly what investors and nations now demand. Wars
and exploding debt force massive new money printing that only gold and silver can truly absorb. «

 »  Expect a low in Gold at the end of April near $3,600-3,700. «

Bill Sarubbi, March 20, 2026. 

 

Focus on price action, patterns, and cycles. 

The Physical Market Tightens

On the supply side, Lüscher points to increasing fragmentation in silver distribution, with more output moving directly from mines to industrial users, bypassing traditional exchanges. This reflects a broader shift toward physical ownership, where counterparty risk is minimized—an increasingly important consideration amid rising geopolitical and financial uncertainty. Expanding fiscal deficits and monetary pressures further reinforce the role of precious metals as absorbers of excess liquidity.

 

Reference:

Dieter Lüscher (March 20, 2026) - This is why gold is at its bottom now. (DESHALB ist Gold JETZT am Tiefpunkt.) (video)

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil

Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom. 

 

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation. 

 

 Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical

downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.

 

Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas

Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold

Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.

 

Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; 

Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver

Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger

Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. 

 

 

Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits. 

 

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance. 

Cocoa

Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops. 

 

 

Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; 

short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.

 

Reference:
NinjaTrader Live (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Market Outlook with Larry Williams. (video)
 

See also:

Foundation for the Study of Cycles (February 17, 2026) - Larry Williams on Inflation and the Coming Bear Market. (video) 

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Namzes (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Crude Oil Projection.
Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price.

Silver Squeeze Blasts-Out Last Short Funds—Watch Grains | Oscar Carboni

I started in the silver pits as an 18-year-old kid back in 1982. For decades, Silver was stuck in a range between $7.50 and $21, even while other metals soared. While Gold moved from $265 to $4,000, and Copper and Palladium saw massive gains, Silver remained artificially suppressed.

» You must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. «

Silver (daily chart).

For 40 years, major funds and big banks have held Silver down by selling it short and selling calls against it to collect premiums. They did this successfully for four decades until Silver finally got noticed by the broader public. What you are witnessing today is a massive, forced short squeeze. The funds that held short positions for 40 years finally got caught and are being forced to exit.
 

Caution in the Metals Sector

While the rally is exciting, you must be careful not to "plow in" at these levels. If you missed the initial move, you missed it. At $117, the volatility is extreme. Every $1 move in Silver represents a $5,000 gain or loss on a single lot. This looks like capitulation—the final "blow-off" top where the last remaining shorts are blasted out.

Gold (daily chart).

 

 Platinum (daily chart).

 

Copper (daily chart). 

 

Looking at the broader sector, Gold continues to trend within its reliable channels, and Platinum and Palladium are also moving higher. Copper had a fantastic rally today as well, moving at $250 per point.

 

The Next Opportunity: Grains

With Indices, Currencies, and Metals already having gone to the moon, I am looking for what is left. The answer is the Grain Market. Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, and Oats haven't moved yet. As spring planting approaches and other commodities become too expensive, watch for fund managers to rotate their capital into the grain sector.

Reference:
Oscar Carboni (January 26, 2026) - The Silver Squeeze Has Blown-out the last Hold-out Short Funds Today. (video)

 

Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.

 

See also:

Namzes (January 26, 2026) - Silver: Local Top Intraday, not THE Top yet.

 Andrew Hoese (December 28, 2025) - Silver and Commodities: The Case for Long-Term Investment.