Astro Cycles and Speculative Markets | Luther James Jensen (1935 + 1978)

Luther James Jensen was born in 1900 and raised in Saint Paul, Minnesota, where he graduated in 1922. He entered the financial sector in New York, and worked for George E. Liggett and Associates until around 1930. Jensen then moved to Kansas, where he opened the Kansas City Bureau of Economic Research in 1931 which was his business for over 25 years. For the Roosevelt-administration he authored economic forecasts (e.g. Major Trends in American Economics from 1492 to 1950: An Analysis and a Forecast), but also wrote on war and peace cycles, radio communication technology or migratory locusts (The Locust Years After 1940). During the same period one of his major private clients became W.D. Gann. Though apparently Jensen himself was never an active trader, already in 1935 he published a booklet called Astro-economic Interpretation: A Mundane Astrology Notebook; Fundamentals of Economic Forecasting which primarily relied upon transiting aspects and horoscopes of companies. Today this very dense book is considered one of the bona fide classics and finest "How-To" guidelines on financial astrology ever written. Throughout the 1940s Jensen wrote the astro-financial column Market Perspective, which was published in the American Astrology magazine.

Soon after W.D. Gann died in 1955, Jensen closed down his Kansas City Bureau of Economic Research to work for B.C. Christopher and Co. in New York from 1957 until his retirement in 1971. Then, in 1978 at the age of 77, Jensen summarized his life's work in a new, updated and expanded edition of Astro Cycles and Speculative Markets. Over 50 years of study, research, and actual application of his concepts in the stock and commodity markets have proven Jensen to be one of the great astro-economic analysts of all time. Jensen took an approach that used standard aspect qualities (trines favourable, squares negative, etc.) and standard planet qualities such as Jupiter increasing prices, Saturn depressing prices. One of the problems with much of this early work is that it gives astrological indicators but provides little verification. In 1981 L.J. Jensen passed away in Shawnee, Kansas. Hard- and e-copies of his Astro Cycles and Speculative Markets are still available today, and his methods applied by some of the most successful private traders and large companies around the globe. The following is Jensen's introduction to financial astrology:

Equities Expensive and Commodities Cheap?

Incrementum AG (Jun 1, 2017) - In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. 

The chart outlines the valuation of the GSCI relative to the S&P500. The GSCI comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. In absolute terms, the scene seems set for a new bull market for commodities. According to Ned Davis Research, commodities gained 217% on average over the period of a bull market. 

Crude Oil and the 34 Year Commodity Cycle | Tony Caldaro

Tony Caldaro (Aug 23, 2016) - Over the years we have written many times about the 34-year commodity cycle. Generally commodities rise as a group in a 13-year bull market, which is followed by a 21-year bear market. Each specific commodity has its own particular cycle which generally fits within the broader 34-year commodity cycle.

A bullish phase of this cycle started about two decades ago in 1998, and ended in 2011. A bear market, lasting about 21-years, has been underway since then. Sorry gold bugs! During the bull market phase some commodities rise in five waves. During the bear market phase all commodities decline in three larger waves. Naturally, just like there are corrections in bull markets, there are rallies in bear markets. Commodities, in general, are currently in one of those bear market rallies.

When one looks at a Crude chart covering nearly 50-years, one can clearly see two periods of rising prices and two periods of declining to sideways prices. While these rising and declining periods may look sporadic, they are actually quite regular when one knows what to look for. As we will explain in the following chart. 

Tony Caldaro: "Expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade."

The two rising periods were actually five wave 10-year bull markets, i.e. 1970-1980 and 1998-2008. These two bull markets were separated by an 18-year bear market, i.e. 1980-1998. The rise during the bull markets were quite spectacular. Well over 1000% in such a short period of time. Price rises like these always lead to excess-capacity events. And these events are normally followed by nearly as spectacular declines. Which eventually cuts capacity until supply/demand reaches an equilibrium. We are in one of those equilibrium periods now.

With Crude 8-years into its bear market, and at least a decade away from starting a new bull market, we can already see a pattern unfolding which is relative to its previous bear market. To see this pattern one needs to review the larger waves first. During the last bear market Crude declined from 1980-1986, rallied to 1990, then declined from 1990-1998. A 6-year decline, then a 4-year rally, followed by an 8-year decline.

Since the current bear market just had an 8-year decline, 2008-2016, we should look into the last 8-year decline. Then the 8-year decline unfolded in three waves [1990]: 1994-1997-1998. Now the 8-year decline has also unfolded in three waves [2008]: 2009-2011-2016. Notice 1990: 4dn-3up-1dn, and 2008: 1dn-2up-5dn, nearly the exact reverse or mirror image. If we consider this a completed pattern, and we do, the next thing that should occur is a choppy 4-year bear market rally, i.e. 1986-1990 or 2016-2020. Therefore the $26 low should be the low for at least the next four years.

How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.

See also Paweł Wiśniewski on Long-Term Commodity Cycles HERE