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Thursday, February 19, 2026

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil

Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom.

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation.

Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical

downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.

Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas

Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold

Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.

Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles;

Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.

Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver

Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger

Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale.

Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits.

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance.

Cocoa

Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops.

Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation;

short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.

Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.

Reference:
NinjaTrader Live (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Market Outlook with Larry Williams. (video)

Thursday, January 29, 2026

2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin | Bill Sarubbi

US Stock Market Outlook and Q1 Correction

The equity markets appear to be nearing a significant peak, with a forecasted correction for the S&P 500 expected to intensify during the first week of February. Despite this initial volatility, the year-end target for the S&P remains 10% to 12% higher than current levels around 6,950.

In November, the 15-month midterm election cycle will be the primary rally driver.

Sarubbi's market summary indicates a Q1 correction in the S&P, with the S&P expected to rise by 10%-12% in 2026. This will be followed by a trading range in Q2 and Q3, and a rally in Q4. November marks the beginning of the 15-month mid-term election year cycle. Oil is anticipated to rally, and foreign markets are projected to extend their outperformance.

Regarding the US stock market, there is a short-term cycle that runs into the last week of January, which expires just as a weak short-term cycle begins in the first week of February. February and March are likely to be weak. There will be a Q1 correction, likely starting in February, with Q2 and Q3 forming a trading range. Q4 in any year has been bullish, and the 15 months beginning with the mid-term elections have been one of the most bullish time intervals.

On the topic of bubbles, Sarubbi notes that they usually do not occur in years ending in a 6. Most crises have occurred in the autumn of years ending in 7 or 8. For instance, on August 15, 1971, Nixon closed the gold window. On March 31, 1980, Carter signed the Monetary Control Act, which enabled the Fed to monetize any paper. With few limits on what can be monetized, the Fed could theoretically inflate the currency to infinity. Consequently, there is no limit to price increases.

Bill Sarubbi expects the S&P 500 in 2026 to unfold in three phases: a weak first quarter, a sideways trading range through the spring and summer, and a powerful rally in the fourth quarter driven by the historically potent 15-month midterm election cycle.

2026 Composite Cycle for the S&P 500.

Sarubbi's "Composite Cycle for the S&P 500 in 2026" begins at a relatively high point in January 2026, followed by a general downward trend with minor oscillations through February and March. It experiences a slight dip in April, a modest recovery in May, and further undulations downward through June and July. A more pronounced decline occurs in August and September, reaching a notable low point around October or early November. From this trough, the US stock market ascends sharply through November and December 2026, continuing its upward trajectory into January 2027.

Above is the DJIA's expected return of all years ending in 6 that have also been 2 years past an election since 1885. Keep in mind that the 15-month period that follows the mid-term elections has been one of the most bullish time intervals. It appears logical to expect a Q1 correction followed by a trading range in the first 3 quarters of 2026.

Long-Term Cycles and Inflationary Pressures

Current economic conditions mirror the 54-year cycle last seen in 1972, characterized by persistent price inflation, social unrest, and rising interest rates. This environment of "excess liquidity" is evidenced by record-breaking prices for collectibles and comic books. Furthermore, the removal of the gold window in 1971 and subsequent monetary acts have removed traditional limits on currency monetization, explaining gold’s ascent toward the $5,000 mark.

Sector Rotation and Technology Moderation

A primary theme for 2026 is the transition of leadership away from the "Magnificent Seven" and toward undervalued sectors. While technology will remain relevant, leadership is shifting to names like Intel and Micron rather than the overextended market leaders.

Capital is expected to flow into healthcare, base materials, and emerging markets, the latter of which are breaking a 15-year relative downtrend against US equities.

Bullish Outlook for Energy and Oil

Oil presents a compelling "witches' brew" of bullish indicators: strong technical support between $50 and $55, extreme bearish sentiment, and favorable seasonal cycles.

Monthly Crude Oil Cycle.

A rally is anticipated through June, with stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB) showing classic technical breakout patterns. This sector stands to benefit most from the rotation of funds out of high-priced mega-cap tech.

Fixed Income, Gold, and Bitcoin

Fixed income remains unattractive, with the 10-year note facing strong seasonal headwinds in March.

10-Year Notes monthly histogram.

US Notes are at the start of one of the most bearish weeks in any year. Over the last 43 years, price has fallen 81% of the time from the 19th through the 25th. See the daily histogram of expected return for December above.

Gold.

Gold has exceeded recent objectives but is entering a seasonally weak period through March, with a projected short-term top near February 20. The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low.

The gold cycle has peaked and the gold price has given an unmistakable signal. First, the rate of change became unsustainable. Then, in only 2 days, price has retraced 50% of its move from the October low. It must fall to $4050 to retrace 38.2% of its entire 2025 move. The peak occurs on a day when a new Fed chairman has been announced. The new Fed chief has indicated that he will not continue to inflate the currency. The monthly cycle does not show a meaningful low until July.

Bitcoin.

Conversely, Bitcoin continues to adhere closely to its cyclical data, suggesting a potential rally toward the $110,000 to $115,000 range by April.

Reference:
Bill Sarubbi (January 23, 2026) - Market Forecast 2026. (video)

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Germany’s Final Descent into Deindustrialization | Gerry Nolan

They blew it up. Literally. As if watching the Nord Stream pipelines get surgically terrorized by US led NATO operatives wasn’t humiliation enough, Berlin just greenlit the demolition of its own functioning coal-fired power plant in Ibbenbüren, Westphalia, in the middle of an energy crisis. No enemy army invaded. No external power sabotaged it. The German government did it to itself.

This isn’t an 'energy transition'. This is energy seppuku.

The very plant they blew up could’ve kept homes warm and industry humming. But instead, Germany’s ruling class, wagging their tail for Ursula von der Leyen’s green fantasies and Washington’s LNG extortion racket, chose deindustrialization. They’ve become the first major economy to voluntarily plunge into managed decline, while gas prices soar and steel furnaces go cold.

Demolition of the Ibbenbüren Power Plant on April 6, 2025. The fully operational 838-megawatt coal

power plant was shut down in 2021 as part of Germany’s 'green' Energiewende (energy transition).

Let’s be clear: this is not about the environment. If it were, they wouldn’t be buying dirty coal and gas from abroad while gutting their own infrastructure. This is political obedience disguised as climate policy. The message? Fall in line with Atlanticist diktats, or watch your economy get dismantled, one pipeline, one smokestack at a time.

When ruthlessness, vassalage, and madness have a joyful rendezvous: Germany's final descent into deindustrialization and

US energy colony status is rejoiced by the CIA-directed German government's propaganda broadcaster Deutschlandfunk:

"Former Coal Power Plant: Demolition in Ibbenbüren a Success."

The demolition of Ibbenbüren is more than symbolic. It’s the self-immolation of a once-proud industrial giant, now reduced to an energy vassal state begging for overpriced American LNG, locked into permanent austerity to subsidize a war they cannot win in Ukraine.

There is no love for Germans in this arrangement. Only contempt. And still, not a whisper about the real sabotage, the Nord Stream bombing, the economic war, the slow squeeze of sovereignty. Instead, Berlin celebrates its own collapse with photo ops and press releases. If this is “progress,” it’s the kind that ends in darkness, ration cards, and a long winter of regret.

Quoted from:
Gerry Nolan (April 6, 2025) - Germany’s Final Descent: From Industrial Powerhouse to Energy Colony.

In a conversation with Tucker Carlson on April 4, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He recalled how US President Donald Trump had called the Europeans 'insane' for already sourcing most of their energy from Russia. 'Do they want to double that?' Bessent quoted Trump. 'And they did. And look what happened,' Bessent said. Carlson interjected, 'We blew it up.' Laughter erupted, and Bessent quipped, 'Somebody did. Probably Putin. Some Norwegian fisherman bumped into it, is what I read.'

» Washington’s LNG extortion racket. «

Trump declared that the European Union must purchase $350 billion in US energy, primarily LNG and oil, to secure relief from his proposed tariffs. [...] Meeting Trump’s $350 billion goal would demand a fivefold increase, straining production, shipping, and EU willingness to pivot from suppliers like Norway and Qatar.

Monday, February 19, 2024

Western Europe Could Become the New Ukraine | Timofey Bordachev

The real causes of major armed conflicts such as world wars are always linked to socio-economic factors. For the naturally cautious German nation to become a bunch of cannibals, it first had to sink into the economic misery and moral oppression of the 1920s. Before that, demographic growth and the unresolved social problems of industrialization created the necessary mass of people willing to kill and die on the fields of the First World War.

» Both the Minister for Economic Affairs and the Minister of Finance have come to the conclusion

that Germany is no longer sufficiently competitive. It is inconceivable that this will not lead to political changes. «
Christian Lindner, German Minister of Finance, Feb 12, 2024.

In any case, any great aggression against neighbors has required a very large number of poor and morally degenerate people. This is roughly what happened to Ukraine during the 30 years of its failed statehood. In other words, the ability of the Western Europeans to unleash armed aggression against us depends on how their own affairs are going.

This is why, from the Russian point of view, it is now of the utmost importance to observe what is happening in the Western European economies. The irrational policy of sanctions against Russia and the partial breakdown of trade and economic relations between us have already led to serious losses for their business sectors. Added to this are the accumulated domestic problems, competition from American and Chinese companies, and the general recession in the global economy.

» Ukraine must win this war. If Putin had his way, this would only be the beginning. «

Boris Pistorius, German Defence Minister, Feb 18, 2023.

For example, one of the Western news agencies recently published a story about how large manufacturing companies, industry leaders, are leaving Germany in search of more favorable locations and investment conditions. Other major Western European states are going through their own worrying processes. If these economic difficulties begin to erode the established model, the mood of the citizenry may change.

We do not know exactly how Western Europeans will react to the deterioration of their material situation and how long it will take. It is quite likely that the world will not see the practical consequences of this economic decline for another 20-30 years. What is more, we cannot say with certainty that the behavioral algorithms of its inhabitants will be exactly the same as in the first half of the 20th century. History does not repeat itself, which makes thinking about events by analogy a rather dead-end way of understanding what is happening.

Quoted from:
Timofey Bordachev (Feb 15, 2024) - Could Europe become the new Ukraine?

Friday, September 1, 2023

Crush Europe and Strengthen the US | RAND Corporation

January 25, 2022.

Confidential.

Distribution:

WHCS, ANSA, Dept. of State, CIA, NSA, DNC

Executive Summary

[...] The current German economic model is based on two pillars. These are unlimited access to cheap Russian energy resources and to cheap French electric power, thanks to the operation of nuclear power plants. The importance of the first factor is considerably higher. Halting Russian supplies can well create a systemic crisis that would be devastating for the German economy and, indirectly, for the entire European Union. The French energy sector could also soon begin to experience heavy problems. The predictable stop of Russian-controlled nuclear fuel supplies, combined with the unstable situation in the Sahel region, would make French energy sector critically dependent on Australian and Canadian fuel.

"A reduction in Russian energy supplies - ideally, a complete halt of such supplies -
would lead to disastrous outcomes for German industry." - RAND Corporation, Jan 25, 2022.

[...] The only feasible way to guarantee Germany's rejection of Russian energy supplies is to involve both sides in the military conflict in Ukraine. Our further actions in this country will inevitably lead to a military response from Russia. Russians will obviously not be able to leave unanswered the massive Ukrainian army pressure on the unrecognized Donbas republics. That would make possible to declare Russia an aggressor and apply to it the entire package of sanctions prepared beforehand. Putin may in turn decide to impose limited counter-sanctions - primarily on Russian energy supplies to Europe. Thus, the damage to the EU countries will be quite comparable to the one to the Russians, and in some countries - primarily in Germany - it will be higher.

The prerequisite for Germany to fall into this trap is the leading role of green parties and ideology in Europe. The German Greens are a strongly dogmatic, if not zealous, movement, which makes it quite easy to make them ignore economic arguments. In this respect, the German Greens somewhat exceed their counterparts in the rest of Europe. Personal features and the lack of professionalism of their leaders - primarily Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck - permit to presume that it is next to impossible for them to admit their own mistakes in a timely manner.

Thus, it will be enough to quickly form the media image of Putin’s aggressive war to turn the Greens into ardent and hardline supporters of sanctions, a ‘party of war’. It will enable the sanctions regime to be introduced without any obstacles. The lack of professionalism of the current leaders will not allow a setback in the future, even when the negative impact of the chosen policy becomes obvious enough [...] This will ensure a sufficiently long gap in cooperation between Germany and Russia, which will make large German economic operators uncompetitive.

"The prerequisite for Germany to fall into this trap is the leading role of the German Greens."

[...] A reduction in Russian energy supplies - ideally, a complete halt of such supplies - would lead to disastrous outcomes for German industry. The need to divert significant amounts of Russian gas for winter heating of residential and public facilities will further exacerbate the shortages [...] A complete standstill at the largest in the chemical, metallurgical, and machine-building, plants is likely, while they have virtually no spare capacity to reduce energy consumption. It could lead to the shutting down of continuous-cycle enterprises, which would mean their destruction.

The cumulative losses of the German economy can be estimated only approximately. Even if the restriction of Russian supplies is limited to 2022, its consequences will last for several years, and the total losses could reach 200-300 billion euros. Not only will it deliver a devastating blow to the German economy, but the entire EU economy will inevitably collapse. We are talking not about a decline in economy growth pace, but about a sustained recession and a decline in GDP only in material production by 3-4% per year for the next 5-6 years. Such a fall will inevitably cause panic in the financial markets and may bring them to a collapse.

The euro will inevitably, and most likely irreversibly, fall below the dollar. A sharp fall of the euro will consequently cause its global sale. It will become a toxic currency, and all countries in the world will rapidly reduce its share in their forex reserves. This gap will be primarily filled with dollar and yuan.

"NATO's purpose is "keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down",
as Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, NATO's first Secretary General, put it.

Another inevitable consequence of a prolonged economic recession will be a sharp drop in living standards and rising unemployment (up to 200,000-400,000 in Germany alone), which will entail the exodus of skilled labour and well-educated young people. There are literally no other destinations for such migration other than the United States today. A somewhat smaller, but also quite significant flow of migrants can be expected from other EU countries.

Since 1871 the prime U.S. geopolitical foreign policy doctrine for Europe is:
"Keep Germany and Russia separate and in conflict."
Or as Victoria Nuland put it in 2014: "Fuck the EU!"

The scenario under consideration will thus serve to strengthen the national financial condition both indirectly and most directly. In the short term, it will reverse the trend of the looming, economic recession and, in addition, consolidate American society by distracting it from immediate economic concerns. This, in turn, will reduce electoral risks.

In the medium term (4-5 years), the cumulative benefits of capital flight, re-oriented logistical flows and reduced competition in major industries may amount to USD 7-9 trillion. Unfortunately, China is also expected to benefit over the medium term from this emerging scenario. At the same time, Europe's deep political dependence on the U.S. allows us to effectively neutralise possible attempts by individual European states to draw closer to China [...]

Quoted from:
RAND Corporation (Jan 25, 2022) - Executive Summary: Weakening Germany, Strengthening the U.S.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Greater Eurasia | Russia’s New Energy Gamble

Bruno Maçães (Apr 2018) - In October 2017, Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin took the unusual step of presenting a geopolitical report on the “Ideals of Eurasian integration” to an audience in Verona, Italy. One of the maps projected on the screen during the presentation (HERE) showed the supercontinent—what Russian circles call “Greater Eurasia”—as divided between three main regions. For Sechin, the crucial division is not between Europe and Asia, but between regions of energy consumption and regions of energy production. The former are organized on the western and eastern edges of the supercontinent: Europe, including Turkey, and the Asia Pacific, including India.

Between them we find three regions of energy production: Russia and the Arctic, the Caspian, and the Middle East. Interestingly, the map does not break these three regions apart, preferring to draw a delimitation line around all three. They are contiguous, thus forming a single bloc, at least from a purely geographic perspective.

Sechin’s map has a number of other interesting elements. As noted already, Turkey is left on the European side of the line delimiting the energy production core in the west. The same is true for Ukraine, which although unavoidable in this context is still an unusual inclusion in a map sanctioned by the highest echelons of Russian state power. If one looks at the world through the prism of energy geopolitics, then Ukraine is a European country—a consumer, not a producer.

[...] The map illustrates an important point about Russia’s new self-image. From the point of view of energy geopolitics, Europe and the Asia Pacific are perfectly equivalent, providing alternative sources of demand for energy resources. Russia has been struggling to abandon its traditional orientation toward Europe, hoping to benefit from the flexibility of being able to look both east and west to promote its interests. It seems that Sechin and Rosneft can place themselves in that position much more effortlessly.

Sechin’s map subtly makes one final—and decisive—point. As you consider the three areas it delimits, it becomes apparent that two of them are already led and organized by a leading actor: Germany in the case of Europe and China for the Asia Pacific. Production chains within these highly industrial regions are increasingly managed by German or Chinese companies, which tend to reserve the higher value segments for themselves. Their spheres of influence extend to all important inputs, with one glaring exception: energy. In order to address this vulnerability, the two regions of energy consumption will be attracted to the core region, where they need to ensure ready and secure access to energy resources. And their efforts may well be made easier by the fact that the core region of energy production lacks a hegemon capable of ensuring its survival as an autonomous unit in the Eurasian system.

The very same day he delivered his speech on Eurasian geopolitics, Sechin announced that Rosneft would take control of Iraqi Kurdistan’s main oil pipeline, boosting its investment in the autonomous region to $3.5 billion, despite Baghdad’s military action sparked by a Kurdish vote for independence. The move helped shield Kurdistan from increasing pressure from Baghdad. Two weeks later, Sechin went on to sign a preliminary pact with the National Iranian Oil Company, the first step before a binding deal to participate in Iran’s oil and gas projects over the next few years, with investments totaling up to $30 billion and a production plateau of 55 million tons of oil per year.

Four Russian oil companies have even begun negotiating for opportunities in Syria, a venture driven as much by politics as by commercial interest. The aim is not to explore and extract Syria’s modest petroleum reserves, of course. By actively participating in rebuilding and operating Syrian oil and gas infrastructure, Russian energy companies will be in control of a critical transit route for Iranian and Qatari oil and gas heading to Europe, bringing two rival producers closer to its orbit and tightening its stranglehold on the European gas supply. In 2009, Qatar proposed to run a natural gas pipeline through Syria and Turkey to Europe. Instead, Al-Assad forged a pact with Iran to build a pipeline from the Persian Gulf and then through Iraq and Syria and under the Mediterranean. This project had to be postponed because of the war. When it is resumed, Russia will be in control.

It is in the very nature of the Eurasian system described by Sechin that the core energy production region—provided it is sufficiently united and organized—will benefit from its central position, being able to pick and choose between east and west in order to obtain the most favorable terms. Russia and the Middle East are now part of the same geopolitical unit. It took the Russian military intervention in Syria for the world to start to come to terms with this reality.

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