Energy War over Syria │ The Geopolitics of Oil and Gas Pipelines

Major Planned Pipelines - Enlarge

The war on Syria is only unclear at first sight. On closer inspection, it becomes clear that fighting between mercenaries and government forces takes place only where important pipelines are running or planned. 

Russia, the Western powers and the Gulf States are fighting for the best starting position for gas and oil supplies for the European market. France, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and the United States, in particular, are interfering in the distribution struggle without any reference to international law, while Russia's support to the legal Syrian government is fully in line with international law.  

Two of the most important oil markets are located in the Syrian cities of Manbij and al-Bab, both of which are located in the Aleppo province. These two cities are also the most important pipeline, the oil from Iraq - from Mosul and al-Qaim - transported to Syria as far as the province of Idlib. 

Territorial Control - Enlarge

The same Pipeline runs through the city of Aleppo to the oil market in Idlib. Whoever controls Manbid, has a great influence on the oil transport in Syria. The same applies to Aleppo, Idlib and al-Bab in the west of the country. In the east of the country the same oil transport line runs through Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. The oil that flows through this transport line comes from Mosul, via Sinjar to Deir Ezzor and a second strand from al-Qaim to Deir Ezzor. So far, Turkey has had no influence on the oil transport lines in the Syrian conflict. Through the capture of Manbidz, Turkey could assert its influence on the transport system in Syria. The current battle for Aleppo is called only from a basic decision-making battle: Aleppo is the last big city through which flows the country's most important transport line. Anyone who controls Aleppo controls the "key" of the pipeline. It is striking that the conflicts between the conflict parties take place, in particular, on the most important points of the transport lines: Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, Aleppo, Idlib, Manbidsch, Hasaka, al-Bukamal, Ain Issa and al-Bab. In Homs and Hama also violent battles take place. Previously, Palmyra was fiercely fought. These, in turn, are the areas through which the Qatar-Turkey pipeline is planned. The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline supported and planned by the Russians should also be run by Homs. That is why Homs from the Russian point of view cannot be controlled by the Islamic mercenaries. 

The fog of war and the realm of uncertainty:
Russian and US Airstrikes - Enlarge

From the map of the air strikes, it is clear that the US airspace mainly focuses on the East and the Russian air strikes, especially on the west of Syria. While the control of West Syria is important to the Russians to prevent pro-Western pipelines, it is important from the US point of view that the prospect of pro-Russian pipelines - like the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline - to prevent.

Another planned pipeline was originally to go from the Israeli Golan Heights via Damascus to Turkey. This pipeline would allow Israel to emerge as a gas supplier, provided the government is overthrown in Damascus. But Russia does not want any competitors in the gas market.

In connection with the pipeline routes, the planned "Kurdish corridor" is also critical. The Caucasus Strategic Research Center (KAFKASSAM) in Ankara reports: "The real objective of this corridor is to transport the Kurdish oil and gas from the Northern Iraq over Northern Syria to the Mediterranean by pipeline there. In addition, the US had planned to build another pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Northern Iraq and from there via Northern Syria. Thus, both Iraq and Turkey should be brought to the West and especially to Europe on the energy market through both Turkey and Northern Syria. But the plan to found a Kurdish corridor fell into the water because the Russians intervened in Syria. Russia is opposed to this corridor because Europe is to be maintained as a customer of Russian energy carriers. Russia will under no circumstances give up its position on the European market." See also HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE

War as the continuation of politics and economic interest by other means.

The Qatar - Turkey Pipeline Conspiracy | Hillary Clinton's Axis of Evil

Is the fight over a gas pipeline fuelling
the world’s bloodiest conflict? HERE + HERE

Emerging Markets Business Cycle | Approaching Gradual Recovery

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Research (Jul 21, 2016) - There are five phases of the emerging markets cycle:

1. Productive growth, a stage of moderate to high productivity-driven growth;
2. Misallocation, in which there is moderate growth driven by bad macro policies;
3. Adjustment;
4. Restoring Macro Stability, and finally
5. Gradual Recovery.

A large number of emerging markets have moved into the “restoring macro stability” recently — which means that growth is still weak, but the economy is stabilizing. Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Thailand are in this category Global GDP growth might get a boost next year, as some economies approach the end of the “emerging markets business cycle” and begin a gradual recovery.

These economies are not necessarily strong yet, but do show signs of increasing stable growth — except for Turkey, whose economy could be negatively impacted after the failed coup attempt. Thailand, for example, still has weak domestic demand and exports, but its economy is growing, partly due to robust growth in tourism, and Russian oil has managed to prosper even with today’s low prices. Brazil is still dealing with an economic crisis, which is exacerbated by its political one — but financial markets reacted favorably to news of the possibility of the president’s impeachment, and a Brazilian economist said that “the expected changes in the government and its economic policies could represent the beginning of a gradual return of investor confidence in Brazil,” and that the economy should return to growth by 2017.

If these countries move into the recovery stage in the next year, it would drive an acceleration in emerging market growth for the first time in four years. Morgan Stanley expects the GDP growth of emerging markets, excluding China, to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.8% in 2017. Those markets together make up 37% of global GDP. Countries that are already in this “recovery” phase include Mexico, which has the 11th-high GDP in the world but is still considered a developing country, and India, which has been called the “biggest turnaround story” in emerging markets because of its slow, gradual growth over the past few years. Meanwhile, China is still in the “misallocation” stage — the one with moderate growth but bad macroeconomic policies. Also in this category is Korea, whose low growth has been largely caused by declining trade with China.

NATO Opens Another Front Against Russia in Crimea

SouthFront.org (Nov 26, 2015) - [NATO, Turkey and Ukraine] have made a strike at another front. As result of a terrorism act near the border with Russia, the four main transmission lines between Ukraine and Crimea were blown up. About 1,7 million people in Crimea are cut from the power supplies. Some experts believe that the terrorism act was conducted by Turkish intelligence services in concurrence with the US. Formally, the terrorism act was made by Crimea Tatar extremists and the “Right Sector” terrorist group. The Crimea’s blackout could be described as a clear war provocation against Russia. At the moment, we could observe an escalation in a diplomatic sphere and military build up of the all sides involved in the Syrian crisis. If the US and its allies continue their provocative and shallow policy, there is a serious threat of an open military escalation in the region (see also HERE).

NATO's Loose Cannon Erdoğan Attacks Russia

Turkish F-16s Shoot Down Russian Sukhoi Su-24 Warplane (HERE)
The Russian jet crashed in the mountainous Jabal Turkmen area of
Latakia, where air strikes and fighting between rebel terrorists and
Syrian government forces were reported earlier on Tuesday. The Kremlin
recommended not jumping to conclusions. NATO is to hold an urgent meeting
to discuss the downing.

The ES futures dipped 1%.

European, Turkish and Russian markets plunged after confirmation that Turkey had shot down a Russian jet near its border with Syria and Moscow warning Ankara of "serious consequences".
 
Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 was down almost four percent after Russian President Vladimir Putin called Ankara's action a “stab in the back made by accomplices of the terrorists.” He also warned Turkey of “very serious consequences” for relations.

The Russian stock market also fell on the news from Syria. As of 6:00pm MSK, the ruble-traded MICEX index was down 3.30 percent, while the dollar-denominated RTS index fell 3.56 percent. On Monday, the MICEX skyrocketed to 1,865 points, its highest level in seven years.

The crisis also affected European stock markets. London's FTSE was down 1.19 percent as of 3:00pm GMT. The markets in France and Germany were losing 1.90 and 1.42 percent, respectively.

The Turkish lira is the worst performer among the currencies. As of 3:00pm GMT the lira was down 0.87 percent against the US dollar.

The downing of a Russian jet fighter over Syria’s airspace was undertaken by Turkey in consultation with Washington and Brussels. Turkey did not take this decision without getting the greenlight from the Pentagon. Is this an act of revenge against Russia for bombing the US-sponsored Islamic State in Syria? The unspoken truth is that Russia is undermining US-NATO’s ground operations inside Syria. The latter are made up of various Al Qaeda affiliated formations which de facto constitute the foot-soldiers of the Western alliance. These ISIS and Al Nusrah rebel forces are in turn led by intelligence operatives and Western special forces, many of whom are deployed by private mercenary companies on contract to US-NATO (see also HERE + HERE).

The Strangeloves, the Crazies and the Butchers

While President Obama was in Ethiopia addressing the African Union on the problem posed by ISIS, the clique of warmongers around General John R. Allen and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, began its deceptive bombing attacks against the Kurds of northern Syria, weakening the most effective opponents of ISIS. The front page of The Washington Post declared the air campaign will be expanded into a “safe-zone” along the Turkish-Syrian border that “could become a haven for civilians” — meaning ISIS and Nusra butchers disguised as the “Free Syrian Army”. Pushing ISIS away from the Turkish border, regardless of the semantic argument over whether it will be a buffer zone/safe zone/no-fly zone or “civilian haven” are all methods for achieving the same end: Any place along the Turkish-Syrian border put under the control of the NATO-Turkey-Saudi-Qatar Axis represented by General Allen would act as a smuggling route transporting ISIS fighters, money and equipment into Syria and oil or other resources out of there. Thierry Meyssan of the Voltaire Network is providing new revelations about the role of Turkish President Erdoğan as one of the top terrorist controllers running ISIS and parallel groups like al Qaeda:

War Cycles on the rise (HERE)

“[...] in order to care for the wounded ISIS jihadis, Erdoğan has created a secret hospital, outside of the combat zones, in the Turkish town of Şanlıurfa, not far north of the Turkish-Syrian border. This town was already the site of a secret Al Qaeda training camp. The wounded ISIS fighters are taken to this hospital in Turkish military vehicles by the MIT (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati or national intelligence organization). This hospital is under the personal supervision of Sümeyye Erdoğan, the daughter of President Erdoğan. She is also the director of international relations for the Erdoğan-Davutoğlu AKP Islamist party. In addition, according to Gürsel Tekin, the spokesman of the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican People’s Party), the crude oil stolen by ISIS is now being exported by BMZ Ltd., the shipping company controlled by Bilal Erdoğan, the son of President Erdoğan, in flagrant violation of Resolution 2170 of the United Nations Security Council.“ (HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE).