Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USA. Show all posts

Friday, February 14, 2025

Vance, The Hammer | Constantin von Hoffmeister

JD Vance enters Munich like a Viking berserker in the heart of the Carolingian Empire, a man from the land of strip malls and cornfields, standing before the decaying architecture of European self-delusion. He does not ask for an audience with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, because why negotiate with a ghost? A specter, soon to be forgotten, entombed within his own failed Zeitenwende, the epochal shift that never shifted. The Americans, brash and uncaring, march forward; they see no need for polite fictions. “We don’t need to see him; he won’t be chancellor long.” The brutality of truth, spoken without the diplomatic perfume that once masked the rotting corpse of Western liberalism.

 » America is no longer the enforcer of European delusions. «

[...] The Americans are no longer selling security blankets and fairy tales; they are demanding a reckoning. Europe, that withered lion that still imagines herself the arbiter of moral order, will be told: halt the migration tide, recognize the uprising, and admit that the people — the real people, the Volk — are not to be feared but heeded. 
 
[...] This is not a conference. This is not a debate. This is the moment when the mask slips and the battle lines are drawn. Vance, The Hammer of the new era, makes it clear: America is no longer the enforcer of European delusions. The order of the past is crumbling, and in its place, something harder, something truer, something real is emerging. The Munich Security Conference will not be the same again. The age of illusions is over. The great confrontation has begun.



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Trump, Putin, and Yalta 2.0: Redrawing the World Map | Alexander Dugin

On February 4th, 1945, the Yalta Conference of the Allied Powers began, a meeting that shaped the world order following the defeat of Nazi Germany. This defeat was already inevitable, and the leaders of the victorious camps—the Soviet bloc and the western liberal capitalist world—laid the foundations for the post-war, post-Nazi global arrangement. 
 
» For now, we are still in the midst of conflict and perhaps even on the brink of a larger-scale war. «
 
This order was characterized by the existence of only two camps, two blocs with opposing ideologies, which divided the world and assigned spheres of influence. This model largely persisted until the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and, ultimately, the collapse of the Soviet Union itself. With that collapse, the Yalta system effectively ended, giving way to a unipolar world. Thus, it is no surprise that the US Agency for International Development (USAID), in essence a covert and subversive organization, played a significant role in shaping post-Soviet Russian statehood. It influenced the Yeltsin-era constitution, the new tax and land codes, and other structural changes.
 
们必须无情地与世间一虚无主义倾向、态、废和腐败作斗争。亚历山大‧杜金
» Let us build a great Russia, establish our power, and revive all the glory and strength of the empire. We must ruthlessly fight against all tendencies of nihilism, perversion, decay, and corruption in the world. « — Alexander Dugin, February 10, 2025.

This marked the triumph of the unipolar world order, as Yalta was fully dismantled. Now, we see the prospect of a meeting between Putin and Trump. Indeed, these are two great political figures, two leaders representing two civilizational states, but their meeting, as it stands, will not yet be the new Yalta, defining the parameters of the next world order, which can only be multipolar.

 » Putin and Trump alone are insufficient. At a minimum, China and India must be involved. «

For us to arrive at genuine negotiations regarding the fate of humanity, two key conditions must be met. First, Putin and Trump alone are insufficient. Second, for Russia to fully participate in reshaping the global architecture, it must achieve a crucial milestone: victory over globalism in Ukraine. Just as Stalin had victory over Hitler in the Great Patriotic War, Putin must secure victory in Ukraine.

Yes, we are moving towards this goal, and it will be achieved. But only after victory in Ukraine will truly significant negotiations between Russia and Western civilization take place. However, even these negotiations will not finalize the global architecture, as a multipolar world requires the participation of other civilizational states. At a minimum, China and India must be involved, leading to at least four-party negotiations. Moreover, Europe is increasingly distancing itself from the United States, forming a distinct geopolitical model. Thus, Europe becomes another potential participant. We must also consider the Islamic world, with its billion adherents, as well as Africa and Latin America. These represent three additional civilizational actors, whose perspectives cannot be ignored in the new global architecture. However, the New World Order is already being shaped amidst the ongoing civil war in the US, between Trump's supporters and the deep state—the fanatical globalist elite within America itself.

 »
With his character and persistence, Trump will bring order to Europe quite quickly. And soon, all of  
Europe's elites will stand at the master's feet, and gently wag their tails. Everything will fall into place. «
Vladimir Putin, February 3, 2025.
 
It is telling that the Democrats' organic demonstrations in support of USAID, which had been shut down by Trump and Musk, recognize that the agency holds documents that could potentially incriminate much of the Democratic Party's leadership and parts of the Republican Party as well. This is why America is currently engulfed in a civil conflict. Trump must win this conflict and begin constructing his American model.

» It is entirely conceivable that Canada will become the 51st state of the US — we have no objections. Or that Greenland will become American — we have no objections. And even if Western Europe becomes American, we probably won’t object too much either. But Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics, and part of Eastern Europe definitively belong to us in the new map of global redistribution. There are no questions about this. Ukraine is ours — a part of Russia, period. Belarus is our ally, period. Iran is our union state, period.  «  Alexander Dugin, February 13, 2025.
 
Similarly, Russia must achieve victory in its war in Ukraine, defeating the globalists and their puppets on the battlefield. China, India, Africa, and Latin America will also need to prove themselves in the face of new challenges. The Islamic world, for its part, is currently being tested by the challenge of the Greater Israel Project. Therefore, to reiterate, we are not yet in the situation of a new Yalta world, where two camps have already essentially triumphed over a third and are preparing to define the next cycle of world history.
 
For now, we are still in the midst of conflict and perhaps even on the brink of a larger-scale war. Only when these wars come to an end and the victors and the defeated are known will it be possible to speak of truly fateful meetings between the great leaders of great powers to establish the structure of a new world order.

 
»
The old world is dying and the new world struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters. « 

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Long-Range Solar Activity Forecast & 2025 US Drought | Theodor Landscheidt

Drought is the most serious physical hazard to agriculture. In the US, the 'Dust Bowl' droughts of the 1930s and 1950s are the most severe examples of the devastating effects of extended periods of dryness. In the 1930s, drought virtually covered the entire Plains for almost a decade. Many crops were damaged by deficient rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, insect infestations, and dust storms.

» A drought peak is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years. « 
Theodor Landscheidt, 2004.
 
The resulting agricultural depression contributed to the Great Depression's bank closures, business losses, and increased unemployment. These hardships sent economic and social ripples throughout the country. Millions of people migrated from the drought areas in search of work, resulting in conflicts between the newcomers and the long-established residents, as well as overburdened relief and health agencies.
 
»
The sun's varying activity provides a means to predict US droughts many years before.«

[...] It is a notable step forward that the sun's varying activity provides a means to predict US droughts many years before the respective event. I have shown that ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), extremes in global temperature anomalies, drought in Africa, and European floods are linked to cycles in the sun's orbital motion around the center of mass of the solar system. Figure 1 demonstrates that such a relationship also exists between US droughts and solar cycles.

 Figure 1 shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the US from 1900 to 2001. Green (GPTC, Greatest Perturbation in Torque Cycle) and blue (LPTC, Least Perturbation in Torque Cycle) triangles mark solar cycle phases. Before 1934, GPTC was linked to droughts, and LPTC to wet periods. After 1934, this reversed, with LPTC linked to droughts and GPTC to wet periods. Figure 2 presents smoothed data from Figure 1, emphasizing the phase reversal after 1934. The pattern has been stable since then, suggesting it will continue for decades.

The brown curve represents the raw monthly values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2001. This index was devised by Palmer (1965) to indicate the severity of dry and wet spells over the contiguous US. It uses monthly temperature and precipitation data and the Available Water Content (AWC) of the soil, also called soil-water holding capacity. It is based on the supply-and-demand concept of the water balance equation, taking into account more than just the precipitation deficit at specific locations. It is standardized to local climate, so that it can be applied to any part of the country to demonstrate relative drought and rainfall conditions. The US Department of Agriculture uses it to determine when to grant emergency drought assistance.
 
US Drought Monitor, February 11, 2025.

 
Palmer values lag emerging droughts by several months, but respond reliably to weather conditions that have been abnormally dry or wet. The vertical scale in Figure 1 indicates the percentage of the US area affected by moderate to extreme drought. In 1934 the PDSI reached a maximum value of 63 percent. The green and blue triangles in Figure 1 mark special phases in solar motion cycles that can be computed. 
 
[...] By now, these forecasts have turned out correct without exception. Strangely, this has not sent any ripples throughout official science though it is a proclaimed aim of scientific endeavour to make human life easier by dependable forecasts. The rate of change of the sun’s orbital angular momentum L, the rotary force dL/dt driving the sun’s orbital motion (torque), forms a torque cycle with a mean length of 16 years. Perturbations in the sinusoidal course of this cycle recur at quasi-periodical intervals and mark zero phases of a perturbation cycle (PC) with a mean length of 35.8 years. As to details, I refer to Figure 2 in my on-line paper "Solar Eruptions Linked to North Atlantic Oscillation". In Figure 1 presented here, zero phases of the PC are marked by green triangles and the label GPTC (Greatest perturbation in the torque cycle). Blue triangles labelled LPTC (Least perturbation in the torque cycle) mark phases of minimal perturbation.

» 2025 starts a climate instability not seen since the early 1600s. « Simon Hunt, 2025.

I have shown that these phases indicate the peaks of warm PDO regimes and the coolest phases of cold PDO regimes. In 
Figure 1 they are closely linked to extended dry and wet spells. Obviously, there is a phase reversal in the connection just after the PDSI had reached an exceptionally high value of 63 percent in 1934. The instability inherent in these conditions seems to have contributed to the phase reversal, a phenomenon often observed in solar-terrestrial cycles. Before the phase reversal, GPTC (green triangle) coincided with drought conditions and LPTC (blue triangle) with wet conditions. In the latter case, this is easier to see in Figure 2 with data subjected to 4-year moving window Gaussian kernel smoothing.

After the drought peak in 1934 the relationship is reversed. Now LPTCs (blue triangles) consistently go along with drought peaks and GPTCs (green triangles) with wet periods. This pattern has been stable since 1934 and should continue to be stable for many decades as it is modulated by a cycle of 179 years. So the next extended wet period should begin around 2007 and last about 7 to 8 years, as can be derived from 
Figure 1. A drought peak, indicated by LPTC (blue triangle) is to be expected from 2025 on, and should last about five years.

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Sunday, February 9, 2025

China Already Won the Next Trade War with the US | Keyu Jin

Keyu Jin, a Harvard-educated professor from the London School of Economics, is one of the world’s leading insiders into the Chinese economy. She lays out the exact reasons why China is entering this next trade war with the US from a position of strength. China embraces strategic long-term planning, and when Donald Trump launched his first trade war against China back in 2018, the Chinese learned a valuable lesson: Never be too reliant on your main trading partner. China has long been preparing for reduced exposure to the US, diversifying in all aspects—not just in terms of trading partners and investment, but also in digital currencies and payment systems.  
 
 » Never be too reliant on your main trading partner. Diversify.
Don't be at the mercy of the dollar, nor the US financial system. «
 
Over the past seven years, China has strategically developed key industries that are set to dominate the future of our world: AI, quantum computing, blockchain, e-commerce, EVs, 5G networks, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, materials science and nanotechnology, advanced manufacturing, 3D printing, robotics, space exploration, high-speed rail, advanced transportation and urban technologies, green technologies, agri-tech, and geoengineering—mirroring the complete technocratic Fourth Industrial Revolution agenda of the World Economic Forum. At Davos, Professor Jin explains how this shift has transformed the global economy:
 
"If you look at industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels—what they call new productive forces—very little of it is actually going to the US. This shift has pushed China to embrace new opportunities, sign new trade deals, and establish new trading partners. Global trade has actually expanded, and China's position in the world as a share of global exports has risen, while the US's has declined. So, while the US is retreating, China is opening up as much as possible. This is why Premier Li Keqiang (2013-2023) has repeatedly said China will unilaterally open up, offering zero tariffs to the least developed countries. We should not underestimate the degree and pace of fragmentation that is happening—multipolarity and the rise of economic blocs. We are already seeing the data, whether it's investment or trade, regarding the interaction between non-aligned blocs and aligned blocs. If you go around the world, asking the likes of Brazil or Asian countries, what are they saying? The same thing: Diversify. Don't be at the mercy of the dollar, nor the US financial system."

China halted exports of several rare minerals, including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard
materials to the US, citing their dual military and civilian uses. In response to a 10 percent levy
on Chinese goods, China also imposed a 15 percent tariff on US imports of coal and LNG.
 
This cannot be overstated. All of these new industries in which China is leading—electric vehicles, solar panels, and high-speed rail—are mostly not going to the United States. In the US you won’t see a single Chinese EV on the road. But in places like Thailand, Australia, and Brazil, Chinese automakers are dominating the market. Look at the top 20 fastest-growing economies on earth: Every single one of them is in the Global South—in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, not a single American or European country is on that list. Many Western economies are stuck with zero to 3% growth, teetering on the edge of recession. And who is the number one trading partner for every single one of these rising economies? China. China hasn’t just dominated the fastest-growing regions; it has become the largest trading partner for the majority of the world. That’s why China can withstand this tariff war far better than the US.

»
D
eepSeek R1 is AI's Sputnik moment. «
Marc Andreessen, January 26, 2025.

Simply put: China has a plethora of options. But it doesn’t stop there. It’s not just about who is growing; it's also about who is declining. Western economies are not what they once were. The average American—and European, for that matter—simply doesn't have the same disposable income they did decades ago. And this trend is only worsening. This presents a massive problem for Trump, as his biggest leverage in this trade war is supposed to be the US consumer market. But what happens when that market isn't as powerful as it used to be? That only leaves the industrial sector, where the US is simply no match for China.

»
This is China’s, not AI's, “Sputnik moment”. «

At the same time, the United States currently has sanctions on more than a third of the global economy, including 60% of all poor countries. As a Global South country, looking at who to trade with, it’s a no-brainer: China is clearly the better partner. While China has been building bridges and securing trade deals, Trump has been doing the exact opposite—taxing his closest allies. Under his administration, every country or region that has a trade surplus with the United States is now a target. The message is clear: If your country sells more goods to the US than the US sells to yours, you have two options: either relocate your industries to the US or face trade tariffs. Even Canada—one of the United States' closest allies and neighbor—was hit with 25% tariffs before Trump saw the stock market crash and quickly announced a 30-day pause to give time for Canada to negotiate. What Trump will do with the rest of the world has yet to be seen, but one thing is for certain: other countries aren't waiting around to find out. Every major economy is scrambling to diversify and find alternatives to US trade dependence.

» 2025 is the year when the investment community realizes that China is surpassing the rest of the world. «
Deutsche Bank, February 05, 2025.
 
While the US falters and the EU looks for an economic lifeline, Asia has firmly established itself as the center of global economic growth, with China at the helm as the undisputed economic superpower. China now accounts for more than 30% of the world’s total manufacturing output. China has completely leapfrogged the rest of the world in producing sophisticated industrial goods at a scale and cost that no Western country can compete with. 
 
Looking west, the Persian Gulf nations—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others—have also begun prioritizing their relationships with China and India. Why? Energy. Asia now accounts for over 70% of total oil and gas exports from the Gulf. This energy trade, combined with the region's critical position along the New Silk Road connecting China to Europe, has turned the Middle East into one of the biggest beneficiaries of this new global economic order. 
 
»
 
I expect a sharp recovery in China’s economy in the latter half of 2025, boosting global performance. «
Simon Hunt, January 11, 2025.
 
The global landscape is quickly changing. One of the fastest-growing economic blocs is ASEAN—the Southeast Asian powerhouse economies of Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. These countries are crucial for China’s future success. The biggest changes in trade can be seen in Asia. Nearly 60% of Asia's trade happens within the region, and half of the world’s fastest-growing trade corridors are there. In 2023, China's exports to ASEAN nations bypassed those from the United States. And with a majority of these countries either already in BRICS or set to join, these trade relationships will only deepen.

 
 » The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. « 

 
 » Americans are not known to like Chinese, nor are they known to like Muslims.
But somehow they like Chinese Muslims a lot. «
Former Foreign Minister of Singapore, George Yeo, on the Xinjiang Uyghur issue, May 23, 2023.

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Saturday, February 1, 2025

Trump and Stockholm Syndrome: In a Captured State | Steve Brown

The current reverence for Donald Trump as potential savior of the Western world is like a twisted version of Stockholm Syndrome. The Biden regime was so vile and so corrupt, that the manifestation of Trump (since his election) seems like a life raft thrown to a drowning person. In other words, the US situation is so hopeless that any sort of hope from anywhere must look good to the average US American now.
 
Trump is, of course, beholden to his donor class. It is a donor class where unsavory ‘trillionaires’ like Zuckerberg, Bezos, and their Wall Street moguls (including the banks) have ‘switched sides’ to back the Trump regime. And well, that is the mantle of power. Trump’s backers preside over war, mayhem, and death all over the globe with glee – just as Biden’s did. The only question for elites now – whether Democrat or Republican – is  how affordable this ongoing destruction may be.
 
The great debacle for the former United States is that its political leadership has failed — meaning both parties — and the Wall Street model of leveraged graft, theft, corruption, and greed has eventually devolved into a Western financial system built on bullshit and fake industry — which Pepe Escobar calls ‘casino capitalism.’ That devolution has now become apparent to the entire world. Trump has drawn a veil over donor influence by promoting a populist message of ending the ‘forever wars’ that the US engages in. But ending forever wars is not a goal that the entrenched Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) can allow, even if that is the will of the American people.

 » MAGA in itself is an admission that the US has already failed. «

Thus, Trump has used the immigration issue as cover too, to obfuscate a deeper agenda. That agenda includes confrontation with China, assistance to the Greater Israel project, and accepting advice to leverage crypto as a means to support the lagging primacy of the US dollar. The foregoing agenda will be enforced later during his regime after the dust has settled.

The point is, Trump promised to “make America great again” — which in itself is an admission that the US has already failed and is playing catch-up. China’s success in AI with Deep Seek is just one example. Bottom line, where US America was once about its industry and the ingenuity of its people, due to the criminality of Wall Street and its banks, that dynamic is gone. Ironically, all that remains of US success (as a unipolar hegemon) is the primacy of the US dollar.
 
 And the swamp? Still thriving.

US financial markets, including debt instruments, are still the most secure and reliable stash for trillions of US-manufactured Federal Reserve Notes to go. Of course, when those dollar investment vehicles become ignored by the rest of the world, that becomes an issue, and that process is underway. Meanwhile, I stand by my article from 2019, "Trump’s Limited Hangout: Populism Derailed."

 

While the above may seem a bleak message for the West, the bottom line is that the United States has been on the wrong side of history since the end of the Second World War. Only the redeeming asset of the US dollar and Western financial markets have maintained US primacy over these decades.

The hopeful message is that, as the US dollar erodes and eventually US financial markets crash, the Neocons and satanic creatures who have led US foreign policy for eighty years now will finally erode away as well—or at least be marginalized—and that's via their own historic folly, personal excess, and greed.

 
 

In 2025 Cuba May Just Collapse Like Syria │ Mikhail Zvinchuk

Since the 1959 revolution, Cuba has relied on foreign aid. Right now, people appreciate help from other countries, but they don’t want to work. They are unwilling to take action. We are talking about a new Cuba—one that is lazy and has no interest in developing itself.

 » It looks like Gaza. «

To illustrate, Cuba now imports almost everything, even sugar. In the last century, Cuba was a major exporter of sugar, but now it depends on imports.
The country is unable to maintain or rebuild its electricity system on its own. In 2021, they began a foolish economic reform that failed. Economic conditions are dire. Russia and other countries provide some aid, but the main problem is Cuba itself. The situation there reminds me of Syria right before the fall of Bashar al-Assad
 
It is clear that communism in Cuba is not working. When you go to a shop, the shelves are empty. You can find things on the black market for dollars, but in regular shops, there is nothing. While Cuba may have a relatively low crime rate and some degree of safety, it is a poor country, struggling with unreliable electricity and lacking opportunities for social mobility. As a result, many Cubans are still fleeing to Florida. In fact, the flow of migrants to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past decade. If the situation continues, Cuba will eventually end up like Puerto Rico.
 
» Nothing but disgust for the offspring of the Guevara and Castro families. «

If you stand on a high building and look across Havana or any of the major cities, you’ll see decaying, dilapidated buildings falling apart. It’s an insane sight. It looks like Gaza. People often blame the US blockade for this, but at some point, leadership has to come into question. How much of this is due to the blockade, and how much is a result of failed leadership? The problem is poor leadership—they lack the education and skills to properly govern the country.

The country is falling deeper into crisis, and no one seems to know how to fix it. I’ve spoken with many Russian diplomats, and Russia provides humanitarian aid, including oil and gas. However, even our diplomats can’t fill their tanks because the Cuban people expect everything to be handed to them without any effort in return. 
 
» The economic situation will likely cause Cuba to collapse on its own. «
 
If the country were to open its borders and allow for a more open market, there might be hope for improvement. Currently, only the hotel and tourism sectors are allowed some access. But if the country lifted restrictions on the private sector and started working with other countries, there could be a chance to improve the situation. Right now, however, it's a failed social state. The country is clearly collapsing. 
 
Yet, the ruling party elite still posts meme tweets about Trump being a fascist and display LGBT flags at their hotels in Havana. The priorities are completely misaligned. You know who is the main LGBT activist in Cuba? It’s Mariela Castro Espín, the daughter of Raúl Castro. When I spoke to average Cubans, they expressed nothing but disgust and disdain for the offspring of the Guevara and Castro families. They had nothing good to say about them.

Latter-day mission: babble on about feminism, LGBTQ+ rights, trans identities, and—of course—revolution. Priorities.
 
Cuba may fall in 2025. If the US wanted to take Cuba—liberate it from the communist regime, as they might call it—they could do it easily, and quickly. The Cuban people are not like their ancestors from the 1950s—they have changed a lot. It would take significant effort to rebuild the nation.
 
Russian Navy about to lose the haven of another friendly power.
 
Cuba was the last American colony, and now it could become a new American colony. However, Trump is currently focusing on Greenland and Panama, and hasn’t given Cuba much attention. The economic situation, though, will likely cause Cuba to collapse on its own, regardless of Trump’s decisions. Once the humanitarian crisis deepens, the US might intervene as a savior.
 
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