Showing posts with label Great Power Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Great Power Politics. Show all posts

Monday, September 1, 2025

Hybrid Warfare & Strategic Stalemate in China–US Competition | Jin Canrong

Structurally speaking, China–US relations are certainly not good. The logic is quite simple: the world is changing significantly, and China is the variable, while the US is the leader of the original order. Naturally, the US is not pleased. [...] Whether it's Biden or Trump, both consider China their only opponent. This is very critical. America’s power is still greater than ours.

Jin Canrong (金灿荣), leading scholar of China-US relations, American politics, and foreign policy;
CCP strategist; Professor and Associate Dean, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China.

[...] China–US relations entered full competition in late 2017, when the US began to wage a hybrid war against China. It is called a hybrid war because multiple tactics are employed: trade war; industrial war (denying chips and pushing Chinese companies to relocate industries); financial war (aggressive interest rate hikes to extract Chinese capital); legal battles; media campaigns (such as accusations of genocide in Xinjiang); and biological warfare allegations, including SARS and COVID-19 claims.

» Siding with the EU to split the West. «
The China-US Competition, Jin Canrong, August 19, 2025.

[...] There are also sovereignty issues concerning Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the East and South China Seas, as well as opposition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through new alliances, like AUKUS (US, UK, Australia) and the Quad (US, India, Australia, Japan).

[...] The first phase involved US offensives and China’s strategic defense; now, we have entered a strategic stalemate. The key to strategic alignment is domestic management. The US faces high debt, declining manufacturing, and internal challenges, while China confronts economic performance issues, social conflicts, and a rapidly falling birth rate. Addressing domestic challenges strengthens both nations’ positions abroad.

[...] The US strategy toward China involves territorial ambitions (Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal), aligning Russia, reorganizing allies (Europe, Japan, Canada), and increasing defense spending to ensure allies can act independently. China, meanwhile, has abandoned its low-profile policy, focusing on active defense and strategic deterrence.

[...] Since last year, China’s defense policy has changed. China has moved from passive strategy to assertive action. Strategic stalemate depends on addressing domestic issues first, then external threats. For external alignment, China should coordinate with the EU to balance the West, manage neighboring relations, and continue Belt and Road and BRICS initiatives. This roughly represents the current positions of both parties.
 

Friday, August 29, 2025

Who Invented BRICS | Yuliana Titaeva

Many people believe that the idea of this strategic alliance was proposed in 2001 by Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O’Neill. In fact, he only came up with a successful name—BRIC (“brick”), formed from the first letters of the countries. The point was that these four economies would be the engines of global growth in the 21st century.
 
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit from August 31 to September 1 in Tianjin.
 
But in reality, the idea of an alliance between Russia, India, and China was first voiced by… Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. In 1920, Lenin wrote a “Letter to the Indian Revolutionary Association in which he directly addressed the Indian people, called for liberation from British colonialism, and emphasized that India’s struggle was part of the world revolution. For Lenin, Russia had to be the natural ally of India and China in this struggle.

» The spiral of history. «  
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, 1920. 
 
Of course, Lenin thought in terms of revolutions and class struggle, not trade blocs. But still, this was the first articulation of the "Russia–India–China" connection as a historical and political project. He was the first to see in these three civilizational giants natural allies against Western hegemony.

SCO Unites to Crush NATO’s Pressure, Pepe Escobar, August 29, 2025.
 
Seventy-eight years later, in 1998, the foreign minister of the new Russia, Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov, formalized the idea of the strategic triangle RIC (Russia–India–China) as a foreign policy concept. In 2006, the tropical giant Brazil joined the "triangle," and the four countries turned the abbreviation into a real international club. Today, before our very eyes, BRICS is beginning to perceive itself as an alliance against Western hegemony. The spiral of history.

 
 
See also:

Friday, April 4, 2025

We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.
 
Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 
accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.



The formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. 
 Brilliant minds at work: Tariffs = Trade Deficit/US Imports.

Dei
ndustrialized Reality
: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 
Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 
 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dol
lar’s Status at Risk
: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 
 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Ove
rreach and Collapse
: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 
Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

 
  


  
»
The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «
 
 
 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 
They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Medvedev Watching the River Flow


» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 
We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «
 

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.
 
From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.
 
 

Saturday, March 15, 2025

The US Will Now Cannibalize Its Own Allies & Vassals to Survive | Lu QiYuan

President Trump said something very honest: “If China and the US work together, we can solve all the problems in the world.” However, the establishment elites in the United States face an ideological challenge. They are fundamentally anti-China, and the Chinese ruling elites do not accept the concept of liberal democracy. The Chinese elite, myself included, are profoundly nationalistic and patriotic. To us, social harmony and unity are more important than life itself. The love the Chinese people have for our country, especially our youth, is something Americans cannot comprehend. So the idea of China and the US running the world together—the G2 concept—was rejected by Americans from the beginning. Now, even if the Americans want to pursue that path, it is too late. The train has already left the station.

» China will form an alternative economic and political system outside of the Western world,
and the only way the US can survive is by cannibalizing its own allies and vassals. 
We are witnessing the collapse of the entire Western world. « 
 Lu QiYuan, Geopolitical Economist.

The US provoked the Ukraine war in an attempt to regime-change Russia, turn it into a US proxy, and surround and contain China. China foresaw this, which is why Xi Jinping and Putin met just a few weeks before the Ukraine war and signed a “no-limits partnership” against NATO expansion. From the perspective of Chinese elites, NATO is merely an imperial tool for US power projection. The strategic rivalry between China and the US is no longer just a competition between two countries, but between two ego systems. It is no longer China trying to bargain with its unipolar master under the United States’ global hegemonic roof. Instead, it is a competition between two separate, independent powers. The competition is now between the US-dominated Western power ego system and the China-led new ego system.

Within this Western-led ego system, when the biggest player—the United States of America—can no longer absorb nutrition from its Global South economic vassels and satellites, when it can no longer consume the energy it requires to survive from the East (i.e., China), the only way it can survive is to consume energy and nutrition from its own allies and vassals. And the first set of allies and vassals to fall victim to US cannibalism will be Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. 
 
 
» The first set of allies and vassals to fall victim to US cannibalism 
will be Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. «

This trajectory has been in motion since 2012, when China partially detached its currency from the US dollar, when the Obama administration began to aggressively suppress China’s growth, and when China started its tax reform in 2014. Over the last decade, China has slowly been recreating an alternative network with the rest of the world, as the US has been pushing us out of the original structure. From now on, China will form an alternative economic and political system with the rest of the world, particularly with East Asia, outside of the Western world. By the Western world, I mean the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan—the roughly "Golden Billion" who once oppressed the Global South. Now, through China’s rise, they are forming their own ego system, separate from the original Western-centric structure.
 
The competition and rivalry between these two ego systems mark a dangerous era for the world, because we are talking about the transfer of energy from one system to another. If this is mishandled, it could lead to the destruction of both systems. The creation of this new world system is incomplete because the financial and monetary system is incomplete. And finally, we are witnessing the integration, not the disintegration, of the Western world. Not the collapse of the United States, but the collapse of the entire Western world. 
Perhaps we should credit the new president of the United States, Donald Trump, for accelerating this process. The drama in the Oval Office between Trump and Zelensky delivered the fatal blow to Western unity. Following Trump’s tariff on Europe, we will witness the collapse of the economic and political systems of the Western-led world order. What we are familiar with is the collapse of the Soviet Union. This time, it is the collapse of the West.
 
This is the principle of capitalism, like the law of physics. The United States does not love or hate Ukraine. The goal has always been to drain Europe’s resources. This is why so many so-called intellectuals and political experts in Europe, Canada, and Taiwan are shocked by the current events, like naive kindergarten children, saying things like, "Our Papa, the United States, is abandoning us." But let me tell you this: do not be shocked, because this is only the beginning. Soon, they will be horrified by what is to come: "Our Papa is going to devour us."

 
» Now, the most important thing: What to do with the West? «
Civilization States and the Multipolar World Order.
Alexander Dugin, 2023.
 
See also:

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Trump Managing the Collapse of the American Empire | Thierry Meyssan

On January 21 and 22, Donald Trump had gathered the central bankers and finance ministers of the G7 in his Mar-a-Lago residence. He is said to have welcomed them by telling: "No one will leave this room until we have found an agreement on the dollar." The agreement in question would therefore have been approved by the allies. The main idea would be for the US Treasury to issue government bonds that do not pay interest (what are called "zero coupons") and that would not mature for a century (that is, could not be exchanged for cash for 100 years). Washington would therefore have to force its allies to convert their debts into "zero coupons". 
 
 » No one will leave this room until we have found an agreement on the dollar. «
 
[...] The US public debt has now reached the astronomical sum of 34,000 billion dollars, of which only a third is held by foreign investors, according to Forbes. If some of the US creditors, mainly China and Saudi Arabia, were to ask for repayment, a gigantic economic crisis would occur as in 1929. Many economists regularly warn of this prospect. According to Jon Hartley of the Hoover Institution, central banks have not reduced the share of the dollar in their foreign exchange reserves since the war in Ukraine. However, on February 20, a videoconference by analyst Jim Bianco, taken up by the Bloomberg agency, rekindled concerns. According to this analyst, the Trump administration is following a plan, the "Mar-a-Lago Accord". It intends to radically restructure the US debt burden by reorganizing world trade through tariffs, devaluing the dollar and, ultimately, reducing the cost of borrowing, all with the aim of putting US industry on an equal footing with its competitors in the rest of the world. [...] De-dollarization, that is, using the dollar only at the national level of the United States and no longer in international trade, is the sea serpent of finance.

[...] If we accept this analysis, we must reinterpret various actions of President Trump, in terms of customs duties or the creation of a sovereign wealth fund. They no longer seem as erratic as the international press describes them, but on the contrary very logical. We must therefore consider that Donald Trump is trying to manage the possible economic collapse of Joe Biden’s "American empire" as Yuri Andropov, Konstantin Chernenko and Mikhail Gorbachev tried to manage that of Leonid Brezhnev’s "Soviet empire". I am all the more attentive to this hypothesis because, in my opinion, the coup of September 11, 2001 had no other goal than to postpone the foreseeable collapse of the “American empire”. The last two decades have been only a reprieve that, far from solving the problem, have only made it much more complex. 
 
[...] This time, cautiously, President Trump is lulling his public opinion to sleep by evoking the annexation of the entire North American continental shelf, from Greenland to the Panama Canal, while liquidating the war in Ukraine and the European Union. If my hypothesis is correct, we must not believe a word of the threats of annexation of new territories, such as Canada, and not imagine that the United States is withdrawing militarily from Europe to confront China, but admit that it is militarily abandoning its European allies. We see that it is abandoning Germany and relying on Poland to organize Central Europe, even if it means letting Warsaw annex Eastern Galicia (currently Ukrainian). Similarly, we must prepare to see the United States abandon its Middle Eastern allies, with the exception of Israel. Indeed, it has just resumed arms deliveries to Tel Aviv and begun secret talks with Iran via Moscow. They let Saudi Arabia and Turkey divide up the Arab world.

 » Russia needs the United States to avoid finding itself face to face with China. «

The competition between Paris and London to take the lead in European defense should therefore not be understood as opposition to peace in Ukraine. Neither the French nor the British armies have the possibility of replacing Washington’s military support. It is rather a question of determining the role that the two capitals will subsequently play on the continent. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, hopes to develop his defense concept around the French strike force, while Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, intends to take advantage of the situation. The former is aware that the European Union, around Germany, is disintegrating and that President Trump prefers the "Three Seas Initiative", around Poland. He could therefore reawaken the Weimar Triangle (Germany/France/Poland) to maintain some room for maneuver. While, from the same analysis and taking into account the disappearance of NATO, the second will ensure that Germany is kept as far away from Russia as possible, thus continuing his country’s foreign policy for a century and a half. 
 
»
Fuhrer Ursula is mobilizing everybody to re-militarize Europe. «
 
Note that if the European allies, the Chinese and the Saudis should consider it a scam to exchange their debts for “zero coupons”, Russia should on the contrary support the United States in this maneuver. Indeed, during the dismantling of the Soviet Union, Russia went through a decade of recession and unrest, but today it needs the United States to avoid finding itself face to face with China.

 
ooooOO0OOoooo
 
Trump’s Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, is making his way to Moscow this week to “urge” Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, or else, the White House announced today. It remains unclear whether President Vladimir Putin will even meet with him. Putin has already made Russia’s position clear: No “temporary” ceasefires. A whole new multipolar security order. Yalta 2.0. Long-term peace or nothing.

 » I hope it's not going to be necessary. «
GOAT One-Trick ZioCon MIGA-MAGA Don, March 12, 2025.

After the complete trainwreck in Saudi Arabia, where Washington bent over backwards to appease Ukraine’s fascist regime, agreeing to rearm the Nazi terrorists and give them a 30-day breather, it’s hard to see what’s even on the table. Russia doesn’t do ceasefires for Western rearmament. Russia dictates battlefield reality, not White House wishful thinking. Putin won’t waste more time on US theatrics unless there’s something real to discuss.

 Efforts to reasonably deal with the Trump administration failed, and on March 12,
Putin appears in military uniform for the first time since the start of the war.
 
If the US wants a real negotiation, it should finally realize where to start: First, stop this hollow and ridiculous propaganda charade of 'Trump aiming to broker a ceasefire and peace deal between Russia and Ukraine,' and acknowledge that Russia has defeated the US and all of NATO in Ukraine. The US has lost, is exhausted, humiliated, and bankrupt, and Russia has offered the new US administration a chance to at least save face and improve relations, instead of escalating into nuclear Armageddon. Second, stop financing and rearming the Zelensky regime, and cut its access to Starlink.

 
The GOAT fiscal MIGA-MAGA Ponzi scheme beyond repair.

If it's just about another silly PR stunt to please BlackRock and the 
deluded MIGA-MAGA gaga-crowds, you’d better DOGE the airfare, Witkoff.

Friday, March 7, 2025

Globalism is Dead, What Comes Next | Alexander Dugin

The order of great powers is something harsher than multipolarity. It is essentially a form of multipolarity, since it is neither unipolar nor bipolar, but something greater. However, in this case, only the state civilizations that currently exist are considered, not those that might emerge in the future based on deep-rooted identities. 
 

We are living in a new age of great power politics, and Europe is the big loser. The order of great powers, outlined by Trump's bold reforms, represents a redistribution of the spheres of influence in the world among the tetrarchy of the US, Russia, China and India. 
 
 » Trump's bold reforms, represents a redistribution of the spheres of influence. «

Everything else falls into the realm of the periphery. In theory, Europe could have joined, but not under the liberal lunatics who are currently in power. Europe is desperately clinging to the unipolar world, from which, however, the structural foundation, the US, has been removed. The EU now hardly has any chance of surviving. So, for now, it's the tetrarchy and the prospects of Yalta 2.0.

 

Monday, January 27, 2025

Russia Must Help Overthrow Europe's Dangerous Elites │ Sergey Karaganov

Any outcome of the Ukraine conflict framed as a ‘compromise’ would be celebrated in the West as a victory and perceived as a failure by Russia. This must be avoided at all costs.

» Western Europe must be sidelined from global decision-making. It has become the primary threat to itself and the world. 
True peace will only come when Western Europe’s backbone is broken once more, as it was after Russia’s victories over 
Napoleon and Hitler. The current elites must be replaced by a new generation capable of engaging in constructive dialogue. «
Sergey Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy
dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, and adviser to Vladimir Putin.

First, Russia must openly confront Western Europe’s historical culpability. It’s not the ‘garden’ its elites imagine but a field of fat weeds thriving on the blood of hundreds of millions it has enslaved, murdered, and robbed. Calling Western Europe out for its crimes – from colonialism to warmongering – legitimizes our potential use of nuclear deterrence as a justified response to aggression.

Second, Russia must emphasize the inevitability of nuclear escalation in any conflict between NATO and Russia. This message is essential not only to limit an arms race but also to underscore the futility of stockpiling conventional weapons that will be rendered irrelevant in a nuclear confrontation. NATO’s leaders must understand that they cannot avoid the consequences of their actions.

Third, we must continue advancing on the battlefield, destroying the enemy’s forces with relentless precision. However, it is equally critical to declare that Russia’s patience is finite. For every Russian soldier killed, we must make clear that a thousand Western Europeans will pay the price if their governments persist in waging war against us. The public over there must understand that their elites are preparing to sacrifice them, and nuclear weapons will not discriminate between soldiers and civilians. Western European capitals will be among the first targets of our retaliation.

Fourth, Russia must communicate to the Americans that their continued escalation of the Ukraine conflict will lead to catastrophic consequences. Should they persist, we will cross the nuclear Rubicon, targeting their allies and bases worldwide. Any non-nuclear response will provoke a nuclear strike on American soil. This clarity will force Washington to reconsider its reckless policies.


Fif
th
, we must strengthen our military capabilities while continuing to adjust our nuclear doctrine. If diplomacy fails, we must escalate decisively, demonstrating our readiness to use advanced weapons to defend Russia’s sovereignty and interests. While new technologies such as the Oreshnik missile system enhance our capabilities, they are no substitute for nuclear weapons, which remain the ultimate guarantor of our security.

Finally, Russia must offer the United States a dignified exit from its self-inflicted Ukrainian disaster. We have no desire to humiliate America but are prepared to help it extricate itself from this quagmire, provided it abandons its destructive policies. At the same time, Western Europe must be sidelined from global decision-making. It has become the primary threat to itself and the world.

If America withdraws, Ukraine’s defeat will follow swiftly. Russia will reclaim its rightful territories in the east and south, while a neutral, demilitarized state is established in central and western Ukraine. Those unwilling to live under Russian law will be free to relocate. Peace can only be achieved by removing Western Europe as a destabilizing force and addressing humanity’s broader challenges alongside the global majority.

True peace will only come when Western Europe’s backbone is broken once more, as it was after Russia’s victories over Napoleon and Hitler. The current elites must be replaced by a new generation capable of engaging in constructive dialogue. Only then can Europe rejoin the world as a responsible partner, not a source of perpetual conflict. 
 
The stakes are clear: This is not just a battle for Russia’s future, but for the survival of human civilization as we know it.

 
[ RT’s version of Karaganov's January 21st Profile essay is essentially completely rewritten 
including its title, although RT merely says it "was translated and edited by the RT team." ]