Latin America Facing the Storm: Rallying the Global Majority | Alexander Dugin

Trump is threatening to invade Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico simultaneously under the pretext of fighting drug cartels. It looks like he is beginning his own “special military operation.” If he had chosen Canada and Greenland as his targets, that would deserve full support. That would be a blow against globalism. As it stands, it is pure imperialism, a direct intervention.

» We must all show what a global majority truly is. «

An attack on countries that clearly lean towards multipolarity is a blow against us—against greater humanity. Israel attacked Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and Syria. And the Islamic world stayed silent, allowing it to happen. 

 

» Adelante, tú solo: El mundo te va a quitar hasta la última luz. «

Go ahead, all by yourself: The world will beat the last daylight out of you.

Nicolás Maduro, President of Venezuela, December 2, 2025. 

» Invade Canada, not Venezuela. «

 

Now the United States is preparing to invade three countries of Latin American civilization at once. If they follow the principle of each for itself, this will strengthen Western hegemony for a while longer. The countries of Latin America must unite and present an ultimatum to the United States. Right now, we must all—every BRICS country—show what a global majority truly is.

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin (December 3, 2025) - Latin America Facing the Storm: Rallying the Global Majority.

 

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro yesterday,

dancing to changa-tronics in Caracas. 

» Suspend Sec. Hegseth and Admiral Bradley for their war crimes off the coast of Venezuela! «

 Col. Douglas Mcgregor, December 3, 2025.

 

See also:

Scott Ritter (December 3, 2025) - Pete Hegseth: The Self-Made War Criminal. (video) 

 Col. Douglas Mcgregor (December 3, 2025) - Calling for suspension of Sec. Hegseth and Admiral Bradley. (video)

The Lancet Global Health (August 15, 2025) - "Trump's 2017-2018 sanctions killed 40,000 Venezuelans."
Pepe Escobar (November 28, 2024) - Trump’s Coming War on BRICS and the Global South.

Is Ukraine Developing Nuclear Weapons with UK and France? | Gerry Nolan

If Kim Dotcom is right (his bating average is very high), and Ukraine really is developing nuclear weapons with UK and French help, then Europe isn’t just escalating. It’s playing Russian roulette with civilization. And the worst part? It’s plausible. Horrifyingly plausible.

» Ukraine is developing nuclear weapons with the help of the UK and France. This is why the peace process takes so long. 

The US knows and it is playing on time. Ukraine is a US client state. If Trump wanted peace he would have it immediately. 

Russia is being played. « — Kim Dotcom, December 1, 2025.

NATO’s top general has now crossed the line from deterrence into madness. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone has publicly floated the idea of "preventive action" against Russia—meaning pre-emptive strikes on targets "where drones could be ready to be launched." Europe isn’t defending itself; Europe is announcing that it is preparing for war and is ready to strike first. This is elite panic—the behavior of governments that fear their own people far more than they fear Moscow.

This adds up sadly... That Ukraine is developing a nuclear program with assistance from Britain and France, a charge that will be dismissed in Western capitals, but one that fits too neatly with Kiev's own public statements. This isn’t a wild accusation from the fringe. Ukraine’s leadership has repeatedly signaled nuclear ambitions: from Zelensky in Munich hinting at abandoning the Budapest Memorandum, to the ambassador, Andrey Melnyk, in Berlin threatening nuclear rearmament, to “we may need nukes if NATO won’t take us.” These aren’t slips. They are warnings and confessions disguised as hypotheticals.

Zelensky's potential replacement, Zaluzhny, suggests Ukraine could deploy nuclear weapons as a

security guarantee. According to the dismissed general, other options include NATO membership or

a "large military contingent" to confront Russia. They just crave a nuclear showdown.
 

And now? Europe is openly discussing preemptive strikes on Russia. NATO’s top general, Cavo Dragone, floated "preventive action" against Russian sites, code language for first-strike doctrine. Russia responded by calling it "an extraordinarily irresponsible step." They’re right. This is not deterrence but brinkmanship from a political class that has lost its mind, and knows it.

 

» I was actually in Monaco earlier this summer… and every other car there was an Italian supercar, like a Pagani or Bugatti, and

they all had UKRAINE plates. They’re STEALING that money, and it’s just one big corrupt scandal. « — Donald Trump Jr.

 

Why is the claim more than plausible? Because Kiev has the motive, is on record expressing the intent (to give cover for its patrons), the remnants of a Soviet scientific base, and the Western patrons capable of providing the expertise. And because a desperate state with collapsing front lines, a sacrificed population, and dwindling Western patience will consider anything, including the unthinkable, to secure leverage.

Rustem Umerov sticks to the script: "gratitude to the American people, the leadership, Trump’s peace initiative." 

"The US is hearing us, the US is supporting us, the US is walking beside us." Little substance, lots of pleasantries.

 

And Europe? Europe is no brake. Europe is the accelerant. London and Paris, terrified of their own political collapse, are escalating in every direction: naval-drone terror, hybrid and kinetic warfare, now nuclear ambiguity. They fear their own voters more than they fear Moscow. That’s why they push Zelensky to take risks no sane leadership would touch. Because if Ukraine falls, their governments fall with it.

Zelensky and "The Spirit of Ukraine," 2022 and 2025.

This is how great powers sleepwalk into catastrophe: a desperate puppet state, unhinged European elites, and nuclear ambiguity. And a military alliance openly debating first strikes on a nuclear superpower.

» It's over. NATO and the EU are finished. The Empire of Lies is crumbling. «  

Col.  Douglas Macgregor.

 

The world is standing at the abyss. Not because Russia wants war, but because Europe’s political class is trying to outrun the judgment waiting for them at home. And if they drag Ukraine into becoming a terror regime with nukes, or drag NATO into first-strike doctrine, the next miscalculation won’t be “hybrid warfare.” It will be irreversible. We are closer to the abyss today than at any point since 1962, and the people lighting the fuse are in Brussels, London, and Paris. Not Moscow.

Quoted from:
Gerry Nolan (December 1, 2025) - Is Ukraine Developing Nuclear Weapons with UK and France?

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Next Peaks and Troughs | Ahmed Farghaly

J.M. Hurst's Principle of Commonality suggests that major markets worldwide bottom at approximately the same time. Consequently, my phasing analysis for the S&P 500 is very similar not only to other US stock indices, but also to the CRB index, crude oil, and global equities.

Long-Term Phasing: The 2003 trough initiated a new 54-year Kondratieff cycle, whose first 18-year cycle (a 17.17-year Kuznets swing) concluded with the May 2020 low. This trough was a "straddle to the right," a timing deviation caused by the swift, exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.

S&P 500 (daily bars) from 1999 to November 2025.

 

The 18-year cycle subdivides into two 9-year cycles. Crucially, the major 2008-2009 decline is considered a "false break" that does not negate the 2003 low. Following 2020, the first 54-month (Kitchin) cycle completed in August 2024, and the S&P 500 is now progressing through the second.

Analog Selection and Projection: The market action preceding the 2008-2009 crisis must be negated as an analog because it was driven by an exogenous factor that broke the 2003 low, a condition entirely absent in the current cyclical environment.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from January 2023 to November 2025.

 The projection of the 40-week cycle has a 95% out-of-sample correlation.

 

Lacking the preferred 18-year analog (typically required for a correlation coefficient >0.8), we utilize the 9-year cycle position to project the current 18-month cycle. After synchronizing the 40-week cycle troughs, this model proved highly effective, demonstrating a 95% out-of-sample correlation. Instead of a direct price overlay, the optimal approach is to detrend this projection and apply it to the RSI. This detrended analog shows a high correlation, suggesting a three-swing pattern for the US equity market, which is currently in the anticipated downswing.

Short-Term Outlook: The short-term cyclical position projects an 80-day cycle trough around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon), followed by a rally into early December, before a final selloff into year's end.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from June 2024 to November 2025.

Decline into 80-day low around November 14-16 (Fri-Mon); rally to December 8 (Mon) high; 

final decline into an 18-month or 40-week cycle low around December 25 (Thu).

 

Conversely, the more dominant 9-year cycle analog suggests a period of sideways consolidation near current levels. Under this model, new highs are unlikely to be significant, and the market will largely trend sideways until the 18-month cycle trough is established.

 

Reference:

Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - SPX Time Cycle Analysis via Economic Waves. (video)

 Ahmed Farghaly (November 2, 2025) - Beyond the Headlines: Navigating US Markets with Long-Term & Short-Term Cycles.

 

FLD Cascade Pattern on XAUUSD chart indicates $3,000/oz target by Q1 2026.

 

Decoding the Next Global Conflict: Commodity Prices Signal Kuznets War-Phase.

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle | Ray Dalio

The big cycle is the period from one era of great change and turbulence, in which various systems or orders are transformed, typically through fighting, to the next. Then, through that evolutionary process, we arrive at yet another period of breakdown. The last big cycle began in 1945 at the end of World War II.

 

» This will lead to dramatic changes. «

 

Within that world order, there are shorter-term cycles, like the economic and political cycles. The economic cycles have lasted for about six years from one recession to the next, and they unfold in a way where the economy is weak.  

 

 » In considering which spending to cut, when one looks at the possibilities, one quickly notices that about 70% of the non-

interest spending is considered “mandatory”—i.e., it is either contractually required or politically nearly impossible to cut. «

 

Central banks put a lot of money and credit into it. That causes markets to go up. There's a lot of spending; it gets too hot; inflation rises. They tighten monetary policy, and that causes the economy to go down into recession. Since 1945, there have been twelve and a half of those.

 

» It appears clear that, as the gaps in people’s productivity, wealth, and values grow along with

levels of dissatisfaction about how their democracies are working, it leads to more populist conflict 

and more policies that are like those in the 1905-14 and the 1933-38 periods. «

Average global levels of political polarization since 1900.

 

We sometimes don't pay as much attention to the big cycle when it reaches excesses, such as debt excesses. This is because debts rise relative to incomes. If you look at a chart of most countries, their debts keep rising relative to their incomes, but the incomes are needed to pay the debts. So, when you get to a point where the debts are high relative to the incomes, and debt service is very expensive and starts to crowd out other spending, and investors do not want to hold the debt as much because the debt does not provide them good returns and they start to sell that debt, you begin to have a change in that big debt cycle.

 

 » For the United States, the big cycles look mostly unfavorable. «

 Ray Dalio's “Power Index” for great powers and empires over time.

 

That big debt cycle typically corresponds with the big domestic political and social cycle because wealth and well-being matter to people. When there's disruption to people's wealth and well-being, then you have political disruption, such as what we are experiencing now. Consequently, there's more fighting over wealth and power, and so on. These things come together, which then creates the new conflicts, the new big conflicts: the changes and breaking down of the old orders, the old monetary orders, the old domestic political order, the geopolitical order, and such things to cause seismic shifts. These are periods of great risk for the markets and great risk for society. It's very important that they're understood.

Quoted from: 
Ray Dalio (May 28, 2025) - The Big Cycle Explained in 3 Minutes. (video)

Countries are allowing their reserves or assets to decline while acquiring gold. Central banks bought more gold 

in 2025 than in any year in history. They are not telling the public why, but their actions speak volumes.

See also:

Ray Dalio (2025) - How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle (Principles). 

Ray Dalio (October 30, 2025) - Gold is the Safest Money. 

Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs. 

Ray Dalio (March 26, 2017) - The Developed World Populism Index.

Martin Armstrong  (October 24, 2025) - "The United States Is Due for Another Massive Civil War". 

"The United States Is Due for Another Massive Civil War" | Martin Armstrong

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies determined that the definition of a civil war is a conflict in which at least 1,000 people are killed. The institution likened the definition to the 1791 Whiskey Rebellion that broke out due to excessive taxation, and believes the US is on the brink of another civil war.

 

 » The division cannot be repaired. The cycle can never be controlled or altered. «

 Whiskey Rebellion (1791-1794).

The first wave of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) following the 1776 revolution bottomed in 1784, the postwar adjustment phase, when the economy stabilized after independence. From there, the cycle advanced toward the 1792 peak, marking the first wave of rising confidence in the new system. That peak corresponded with Alexander Hamilton’s fiscal consolidation, the creation of the Bank of the United States, and of course, the excise tax on whiskey. By 1794, as the ECM turned down into the 1798.6 low, we witnessed the collapse in localized confidence manifest as rebellion. Washington ordered federal troops to restore order, which many are juxtaposing to the current administration’s use of the National Guard in cities across America.

 

The assassination of MAGA activist Charlie Kirk prompted many to demand an end to political violence and the rhetoric that led to it. But President Donald Trump blamed the “radical left,” for the majority of political violence: “[Kirk] did not hate his opponents, he wanted the best for them. That’s where I disagreed with Charlie. I hate my opponents, and I don’t want the best for them, I’m sorry.”

The current private wave began in 1985.65, and confidence in the system has continually decreased since then. The last public wave in 1934.4 began in the throes of World War II recovery, with the nation believing in a better tomorrow after securing victory over the Axis powers. By the end of that wave, we saw the rise of the welfare state, Bretton Woods, and the failure of Keynesian policy.

The current private wave will last until 2037.25, but will peak in 2032.95. Capital has fled into private assets such as real estate, equities, and crypto. No one is buying government debt. There are macro and micro problems looming. Within the states, there is an extreme division between two polar opposites points of view. We are currently amid the second-longest government shutdown in US history because neither side can agree on how to spend federal funds. One side envisions a Marxist utopia, while the other extreme sees technocratic control over consumerism.

The division cannot be repaired. The cycle can never be controlled or altered, although countless men have tried and failed over the course of history. The United States is due for another massive civil war, but this time, it will be far larger than a mere revolution over taxes. Governments across the world will experience an uprising that causes their demise post-2032, and a new system will emerge. This is not my opinion – it’s just time.

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (October 24, 2025) - Europe Fears a US Civil War – Whiskey Rebellion to Now.

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (October 24, 2025) - Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest. 

Martin Armstrong (August 30, 2024) - The US Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession. 

Martin Armstrong (June 6, 2024) - The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle.

Mnar Adley (September 17, 2025) - Kirk Assassination Reveals Israel’s Control Over US.

L. David Linsky (October 24, 2023) - War and Regime Change soon in the US.

 Serge Bernard (2016) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.

Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb (1978) - The Age of Decadence.

On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks | Martin Armstrong

The Gold price is driven by geopolitical uncertainty, not peace expectations, with central banks acquiring it for its neutral status against collapsing European sovereign debt. European investors buying gold while leaders escalate Russia tensions create a self-reinforcing fear cycle. This risk has prompted major European institutions to relocate gold reserves to New York and Singapore, anticipating the historical certainty of European capital controls during crises.

Gold's powerful rally is terminal, completing Wave (3) past $4,380 just as Market Vane's Bullish 

Consensus hits a historic extreme of 95, signaling an imminent, major corrective Wave (4).

Evidence of control includes the new mandatory bank account declarations—the initial phase of preventing capital flight. Further anticipated steps include regulating cryptocurrencies and implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) by January 2026, likely justified by a false flag event. Existing withdrawal limits (e.g., in Spain) confirm the focus on financial control, a practice rooted in historical currency cancellations and asset restrictions during past European crises.

 Dow-Gold Ratio from 1792 to 2025:

Dow valuation relative to gold now below mid-1960s.

The Socrates model forecasts a panic cycle in 2026 with intensified conflict and Euro stress, marked by a dangerous, unprecedented convergence of the international conflict and civil unrest cycles. This systemic risk is compounded by the destabilizing effect of Europe's large, unsupported migrant population. Economically, interest rates will rise, particularly in Europe, as geopolitical risk increases debt service costs. The unsustainable US debt trajectory confirms the sovereign debt crisis will lead to government failure when debt cannot be rolled over.

Investors are now in a "private wave," prioritizing private assets over government solvency. The primary stock market bubble risk lies in AI stocks, not blue-chip indices used by institutions for large-scale capital parking. Consequently, "smart money" is relocating capital to the United States (equities and real estate). This strategic move anticipates the CBDC's ultimate function: an impenetrable barrier to capital outflows, reflective of Europe's controlling political philosophy.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (October 20, 2025) - Insider Sources Preparing For BIG Events (video)

Charts: Robert Prechter (October 21, 2025) - History and Outlook for Gold. (video)

 

Larry Williams' outlook for gold in Q4 of 2025.

The EU planned to launch the digital euro in October 2025. Now it’s delayed to 2029, officially for “technical reasons,” 

but actually after Trump banned the Fed from issuing digital legal tender, effectively sidelining the ECB too.

See also:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold. 

 Martin Armstrong (August 28, 2025) - Europe's Debt Ponzi Scheme 2.0—Default or Forced Loan.

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable. 

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025)  - Europe Will Go to War, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct. 

Nikolai Kondratieff (1926) - Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It.

High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer" | Ahmed Farghaly

Many people are wondering what has been happening to the prices of gold and silver recently. We were expecting developments similar to those that occurred after the 2020 bottom of the Kuznets wave [aka the 18-Year Cycle] in global markets. The first chart below presents our cyclical analysis of the Commodity Price Index.

 

 » We are in the “summer of summer.” «

 Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars, log scale) from 1750 to 2025: 162-Year, 54-Year, 18-Year, and 9-Year cycles. 

[Note, there is ongoing debate regarding the precise starting points of the 162-year and 54-year cycles.
It can be argued that both should be anchored to the Great Depression low of 1932, rather than to 1949-50.]

It is evident that the 54-Year Kondratieff wave, first identified by Nikolai Kondratieff, is clearly reflected in this historical chart. Even more intriguing is the apparent presence of a 162-Year larger-degree Kondratieff wave that maintains the same 3:1 harmonic relationship to the Kondratieff wave as the Kondratieff wave does to its smaller counterpart, the 18-Year Kuznets wave. In our cyclical model, the cycle spanning three Kondratieff Waves is called the Hegemony wave.
 

972-Year Methuselah Wave = three 324-Year Enoch Waves

Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 

Hegemony Wave (156.88 y) = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Wave (52.72 y) = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves

Kuznets Wave 17.52 y) = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 

Juglar Wave (8.76 y) = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 

Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month cycles = six 40-Week cycles

Many economists have described the “seasons” of the Kondratieff wave—spring (stable growth), summer (high inflation), autumn (low inflation and asset bubbles), and winter (deflationary recession). Typically, spring coincides with the first Kuznets cycle, summer with the second, and autumn and winter with the third. The highest inflation rates within a Kondratieff wave occur during the summer phase, corresponding to the second Kuznets cycle, which began in 2020.

 

» To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven. «
Ecclesiastes 3:1.

We are currently in the second Kuznets cycle (2020 to late 2030ies) of the second Kondratieff cycle (2000 to 2050) within the ongoing Hegemony wave (1950 to 2100)—a phase that can be described as the “summer of summer.” This phase suggests that we are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War (1861–1865).

» We are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War. «

US Inflation: Annual Percentage Change from 1774 to 2007, with Outlook Extending to 2106.

  

Our next chart above illustrates annual inflation in the United States since 1777. A distinct 162-Year Hegemony wave pattern emerges, with an inflation peak in 1813 marking the summer of the first Kondratieff cycle, a higher peak in 1865 corresponding to the summer of the second Kondratieff cycle, and a lower peak during World War I representing the summer of the third Kondratieff cycle. A comparable peak reappeared in 1980. According to our cyclical outlook, inflation in the current Kondratieff cycle is expected to surpass the levels of the 1970s, as this phase represents the second Kondratieff cycle within the broader Hegemony wave—the “summer season.”

The most advantageous assets to hold at this stage of the cycle—both from the standpoint of the Hegemony wave and the Kondratieff summer—are precious metals, real estate, and equities that tend to benefit from periods of high inflation.

Quoted from:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

 

 The Ultimate Summer:

972-Year, 324-Year, and 162-Year cycles.

» We are in the Sixth Wave that peaks
on Sunday, December 12, 2032. «

 

» Yet, what experience and history teach us is this: that nations and governments have never
learned anything from history, nor acted in accordance with the lessons to be derived from it. «
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Introduction to Lectures on the Philosophy of History, Berlin, 1822.

 

See also:

Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.

Early Global Commodity Supercycle: Top Investment Picks | Andrew Hoese

Commodity Supercycles are long-term, decade-spanning periods of sustained above-average price surges, driven by major demand shocks—such as industrialization, energy transition, and urbanization—alongside supply constraints and geopolitical shifts. Notable past cycles include 1896–1920 (US industrialization), the 1970s (oil crises), and 2000–2014 (China’s rise). 

 

Gold-S&P 500 Ratio (monthly closes, 1925 to October 2025).

» There is an early breakout in Gold versus the S&P 500, a double bottom breaking higher. This signals a shift into a world unlike the past 40 years — a transition from an era of declining interest rates to one of rising rates. That creates different money flows. Money is no longer flowing mainly into bond and stock markets; instead, it is increasingly moving into precious metals, mining companies, and commodities. This marks the beginning of an outperformance of commodities and precious metals over traditional financial assets. «

Today, advancements in AI, digitization, electric vehicles, robotics, the emergence of thousands of new data centers, other technologies, and the relentless rise of BRICS+ are set to fuel an unprecedented surge in energy demand, including coal, oil, gas, hydrogen, nuclear, geothermal, solar, and more. Urgent grid overhauls and expansions will drive a massive increase in demand for key metals such as lithium, nickel, silver, and copper.
 

The current Commodity Supercycle (2022-2045) is driven by several financial key factors, with interest rates playing a central role. From 1980 to 2021, declining rates favored Bonds and Stocks, creating cup-and-handle patterns in Gold and Silver. Now, the shift to an increasing interest rate environment is disrupting this dynamic, as evidenced by a shoulder-head-shoulder topping pattern in bonds. 

 

When rates hit 4.5-5% on the 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield, stocks are likely to decouple, with rates rising while stocks stagnate or decline. The Dollar (DXY), currently in an uptrend channel, could accelerate commodity gains if it breaks downward. Inflation cycles further shape this landscape: disinflation boosts safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while accelerating inflation drives broader commodity markets. Money printing, such as the significant stimulus in April 2025 (Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act), fuels gold and silver in real-time, with other commodities responding as money flows through the system.

 

 

 Investment Potential Rankings: Commodities and Financial Instruments (October 2025):

Top: Lithium, Coal, Iron Ore. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ: tracks large/mid-cap Brazilian equities for emerging market exposure), VanEck Steel ETF (SLX: tracks global steel sector companies (production, mining, fabrication). Highest potential due to recent bottoms, high historical leverage (50-150x for coal/iron ore, 20x for EWZ), strong breakout patterns, and inflation-sensitive demand (EV/BESS for Lithium, Steel +1.1%). Under-the-radar status maximizes asymmetry.

Mid: Copper, Nickel, Natural Gas, Silver, Platinum, Palladium: Strong performers with breakouts or bottoming patterns; Silver/Platinum have top performer potential but face consolidation or supply risks; Copper near highs but neutral Q4 2025; nickel oversupply concerns.

Low: Oil bearish short-term ($60/bbl YE2025); Gold strong but nearing consolidation, and less leverage than Silver.

Lowest: S&P 500, NASDAQ, Bonds. Financial assets face headwinds from rising rates (4.5-5% disconnect); bonds least attractive due to downtrend and rotation to commodities.

The ongoing and escalating worldwide commodity boom is unfolding in a clear sequence: It began in 2022 with a disinflation phase, where gold and silver led as safe-haven assets, potentially pushing silver prices toward $60-90. Over the next six to twelve months, a transition is expected where gold and silver may consolidate or experience choppy trading (point 7. in the historic long-term fractal).

 

 Platinum-Palladium Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

 Platinum-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

 Platinum-Silver Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

 Copper-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

  Oil-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1984 to October 2025). 

 

Uranium (monthly bars, 2011 to October 2025): Bullish.

 

During this period, other commodities like Crude Oil and Base Metals, which bottomed in April-May 2025, will begin to gain traction. As the cycle shifts to accelerating inflation, oil and base metals are poised to surge, driven by money rotating out of bonds and stocks into hard assets. 

This mirrors historical patterns, such as the 2018-2020 period when gold rose during a slowdown, followed by oil's sharp rally in August 2020 after gold consolidated. The current cycle aligns with the 2001-2008 commodity bull market, characterized by a declining dollar and strong commodity outperformance against financial assets, as signaled by gold's breakout against the S&P 500.

 

In 2025, Precious Metals are surging, with gold and silver both up over 60% year-to-date and mining stocks nearly doubling in value. Technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. Notably, spot silver has climbed above $50, showing backwardation against futures prices around $48.70, indicating strong physical demand and potential discrepancies between paper and physical markets.

 

Certain commodities are poised to lead in performance. Gold is a key leader but not the top performer; Silver and Platinum are expected to outshine it, with silver potentially reaching $300 based on historical fractals from the 1940s to 1980s. 

 

Platinum, currently at a 0.4 ratio to gold, could revert to its historical mean of 1.2-2x gold’s price, with potential to hit 5.5-6x as seen in the early 1900s. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper (nearing all-time highs), Steel (breaking out), Iron Ore, Nickel, and Lithium (up 100-300% from bottoms) are also strong contenders. 

 

Platinum-Gold Ratio currently 0.41 (gold/platinum 2.44) as of October 2025, with platinum at $975/oz, gold $3975/oz. Historical: Platinum premium (up to 6.63:1 in 1968) until late 1990s due to industrial demand (catalysts, auto); low 0.05 in 1885. Fluctuations from supply disruptions (South Africa/Russia mines), financial crises, geopolitical tensions, inflation fears; gold safe-haven spikes ratio in downturns (e.g., 2.3x in 2020, 3.1x Feb 2025).

Coal and Iron Ore offer high leverage, with potential for 50-150x gains as seen in the 2000s bull market, making them prime investment targets. Emerging markets like Brazil, through ETFs like EWZ, present 20x potential driven by currency exchange rate unwinds, particularly as the dollar weakens.

Historical parallels provide further context. In the 1930s, gold’s revaluation with flat input costs led to massive mining gains. The inflationary 1970s and 2000s resemble today’s environment, while the 1940s-80s increasing rate cycle mirrors current conditions, with silver moving from consolidation to a boom. 

 

This is not solely a precious metals bull market but part of a broader commodity and hard assets cycle. To maximize returns in the current commodity cycle, one should have invested in under-the-radar commodities like oil, natural gas, iron ore, nickel, and copper between April and May 2025, when they formed quiet bottoms—evident in patterns like inverted head-and-shoulders and double bottoms—before gaining mainstream attention. 

 

These assets, now moving higher, offered significant asymmetry as smart money positioned early, capitalizing on low public interest. For those yet to invest, opportunities remain in inflation-sensitive commodities like steel, coal, and lithium, which are breaking out or showing early uptrends, particularly as the dollar weakens and money flows from bonds and stocks. 

 

Reference:
Andrew Hoese (October 11, 2025) - Early Commodity Cycle: Top Investment Picks. (video) 

 

Commodity Supercycles from 1805 to 2045.

A rotation from Gold back to the Dow might be most prudent if/when inflation-adjusted DJI retreats

back to its 2000 level, which could take many years.  For now, we are right at the upper rail.

The Great Rotation out of Paper Assets into Hard Assets: 
The biggest Bull Market of our Lifetimes is underway.

Gold entering the parabolic phase of the Debt/Fiat collapse.
Moves that took years to unfold now happen in Months/Weeks.

 

Copper: The new oil for this century.

Palladium: Now joining the party. Target $3,430.

 

Platinum: Bullish. First target above $3k. 

 

Silver: A chart pattern that has taken five decades to form.

A generational set-up unfolding. Go long and stay long. 

 

An epic Silver fractal is playing out. 

  

162-Year, 54-Year, and 18-Year cycles in Silver from 1802 to 2025 (quarterly closes, log scale). 

 

The global financial shift isn’t coming—it’s already here. Gold. Silver. BRICS. De-dollarization. Geopolitics and geoeconomics now underpin the unfolding of the next great global commodity supercycle: escalating US–China rivalries, supply-chain fractures, and rising WW3 risks accelerate the decline of the United States’ 250-year empire-life cycle while cementing China’s ascent. 

 

Collapsing US stock indices–to–gold ratios reveal deep monetary stress, aligning with inflationary, interest-rate, and commodity-cycle dynamics that signal dollar devaluation and the breakdown of the post–World War II global financial system. The Great Rotation out of paper assets—equities and bonds—into hard, tangible assets is igniting what the charts suggest will become the greatest commodity bull market of our lifetimes.

 

Wealth preservation now hinges on tangible inflation hedges—metals such as lithium, copper, and nickel; precious metals including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium; and energy assets spanning coal, oil, gas, hydrogen, nuclear, geothermal, and solar. Avoid rate-sensitive exposure in US stock indices, and bonds; instead, accumulate undervalued, cash-flow-rich commodity producers and physical holdings to capture asymmetric, real-asset returns into around 2040.

 

See also:

TPR (October 9, 2025) - The Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) Collapses: Get Ready for Tangible Assets.

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.