NATO Is Now A Zombie Alliance Without Legitimacy | Admiral Cem Gürdeniz

We are witnessing the second great breakdown of a global security order since World War II. The first came after 1990, when the Soviet Union voluntarily dissolved, and Washington rapidly expanded its influence across Eastern Europe. But today, 80 years after the end of that war, the US is beginning its own retreat – shifting its strategic center of gravity from Europe to the Asia-Pacific.

» Israel’s genocide in Gaza, supported openly by Washington, 

shattered any remaining legitimacy. «

[...] Its strategy is no longer about global control but about retrenchment and preparing for great power rivalry in the Pacific, particularly with China. This isn’t a tactical adjustment – it’s a systemic collapse. NATO’s defeat in Ukraine was not just a battlefield loss – it was the end of an illusion.

The post-1990 order was built on the illusion of unipolarity. The US declared liberal capitalist democracy as the universal model. In this system, the West controlled finance, China was tasked with manufacturing, and resource-rich states were expected to supply energy and raw materials. But this model encountered fatal contradictions. US military power failed in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. Instead of stability, it brought destruction. Russia reasserted itself militarily after 2008. China rose economically and technologically, challenging Western hegemony.

» Turkey’s Blue Homeland Doctrine, [...] is ultimately a testimony to the 

clout of anti-Western ultra-nationalism in the Turkish military and state. «

And together, they built a Eurasian counterbalance. Most crucially, the Global South saw through the facade. Israel’s genocide in Gaza, supported openly by Washington, shattered any remaining legitimacy. The Western system now lies exposed – economically overleveraged, diplomatically isolated, and militarily vulnerable.

Trump is not the architect of this collapse – he is the product of it. […] He knows NATO is a burden, not an asset. His challenge is not ideological – it’s existential. He wants to keep the American empire alive by cutting it down to a sustainable size. NATO is now a zombie alliance. It exists more as a myth than a functional military bloc. Its expansion has been reckless. Its operations – from the Balkans to Libya to Ukraine – have destabilized entire regions, and its credibility is collapsing.

» The way forward is to secure our geopolitical destiny in Eurasia – on our terms. «

[…] BRICS is growing. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is expanding. Trade is moving away from the dollar. Regional powers like Iran, India, Brazil, and Türkiye are asserting themselves. This is not a return to Cold War blocs. It’s a rebalancing – a world where no single center dominates.

[Türkiye] must abandon the illusion that foreign direct investment and EU integration will save us. That model has failed. It brought debt, privatization, and dependency. Our economy must be built on production, not speculation. This means reindustrialization, food and energy sovereignty, and regional trade in local currencies. We must protect strategic sectors from foreign ownership. Our Central Bank must be independent not just from the government, but from foreign influence. […] The way forward is not to chase illusions in Brussels. It is to return to Kemalist principles, integrate with the rising Asian century, and secure our geopolitical destiny in Eurasia – on our terms, not theirs.

Quoted from:
Ceyda Karan (April 11, 2025) - ‘Blue Homeland’ architect Admiral Cem Gürdeniz warns: 

NATO has failed, and the EU wants Türkiye on its knees.

See also:

Cem Gürdeniz (2020) - Turkey in the Century of the Sea and Asia.
Ray Dalio (April 7, 2025) - Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.
Ganesh Valiachi and Soundarya Murugan (March 29, 2025) - The End of the Dollar Era? China’s Digital Yuan Is Reshaping Global Trade And Causing Financial Power Shift.

Rare Earth Retaliation: China Chokes America’s War Machine | Gerry Nolan

China just halted exports of key rare earths to the US, slapping export controls on seven categories of critical metals and magnets used in everything from EVs and smartphones to fighter jets, missiles, and drones, delivering a surgical strike to the spinal cord of America’s supply chain. Welcome to the new trade war: geoeconomic strangulation, without firing a shot.

China halts export of key rare earth minerals and develops a ‘regulatory system’ 

to completely block certain minerals from reaching specific US companies.

 

[...] You want to slap 145% tariffs on our goods? Fine. But good luck assembling a single Javelin, F-35, or iPhone without our dysprosium, terbium, and neodymium. China controls over 90% of global rare earth production. Washington just remembered that the hard way. This isn’t just a tit-for-tat move. It’s strategic economic warfare, targeting the soft underbelly of US dominance: the illusion that it can wage hybrid war without being vulnerable itself.

» Dumber than a sack of bricks. «

And now? The US is scrambling: Talking about deep-sea mining, rushing to build stockpiles, and begging Australia and Canada to step up. Canada, eh? Too little, too late. You spent three decades offshoring everything, and now your empire can’t build a toaster, let alone a missile guidance system, without Beijing’s blessing. Ok, maybe you can build a toaster, to be fair. [...] Every chip, every drone, every smart weapon in the Pentagon’s closet runs on components China can choke off in 48 hours. Trump called it “Liberation Day.” 

 

Quoted from:

Gerry Nolan (April 13, 2025) - Rare Earth Retaliation: China Chokes America’s War Machine.

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025 | Yuriy Matso

 S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

 

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is [...] labeled "Panic. Dumping."

 

S&P 500 2025 vs 1969 = J.M. Funk’s 56-Year Cycle.

 Not always exactly to the day, but often close. Directions are more important than levels.

 

Note: Hurst cycles point to a mid-April low and a major mid-May low.

Reference:

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

» We are currently in a bearish 80-day cycle, with a downside target set at 4,660. «

Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!

 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:

"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 

And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 

 

POTUS 45 | 47 

 

» The US is playing a zero-sum game. China is committed to opening ever wider to the world. « 

  

» May he continue to work hard for the ultimate mission entrusted to him by the Party. « 

 

 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,

and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

» There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «

 

  SubuTrade: Markets Report. Bear Markets & Trade Wars, April 05, 2025.

 

» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5

and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we had a 20w high late March and are now heading lower into the 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.

 

Philip Hopf (April 3, 2025) - Is Trump crashing the world economy now? (video)

 

See also:
TPR (April 4, 2025) - 10-Day Cycle Expected to Bottom on Tuesday, April 8, Around 8:30 a.m.

We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.

 

Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 

accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.

The formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. 

 Brilliant minds at work: Tariffs = Trade Deficit/US Imports.

Deindustrialized Reality: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 

» Damn smart penguins. «

Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 

 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dollar’s Status at Risk: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 

 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Overreach and Collapse: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 

Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

Dimitri Simes Jr., April 3, 2025.  

 

  

  

» The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «

Martin Armstrong (April 2, 2025) - Trump, Tariffs, and Liberation Day.

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent breaks down Trump's Tariff
Plan and its impact on the middle class, April 4, 2025.

 

 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 

They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.

Medvedev Watching the River Flow

» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 

We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «

 

Dmitry Medvedev, April 3, 2025.

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.

 

From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.

 

Dmitry Medvedev, March 31, 2025.

 

See also:

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

Alex Krainer (March 18, 2025) - The Tragedy of Europe's Idiocracy.

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.

2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.

3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.

4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.

5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.

6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.

7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.

8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.

9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.

Reference:
New Rules Geopolitics (April 1, 2025) - Red Alert: US Economy Headed for Devastating Recession?

 

» China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. « — Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 1, 2025) - Down Q1 Can Lead to More Trouble.

Jim Bianco (February 13, 2025) - The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention.

Simon Hunt (January 11, 2025) - Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in 2025.

Martin Armstrong (December 21, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction.  

Lu QiYuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0. 

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle? | Alex Krainer

Market analysts tend to attribute great significance to the price of copper as an important leading economic indicator: if demand for copper is rising, the economy is growing (and vice versa). For that reason, they pay close attention to what "Dr. Copper" is saying. But last week, Gold also made new all time highs at around $3,050/oz. Silver rallied quite strongly as well, but it's still trading well below its ATH price, which was just shy of $50/tr.oz. in April of 2011. Here is what the whole COMEX metals complex looks like:

 

 COMEX Metals Complex (January 01, 2021 = 100)

 

There has been an overall rising trend in the metals, building gradually from late 2023. However, platinum barely moved thus far and palladium actually dropped by more than half in the last four years. The rise in Gold, Silver and Copper may be driven by inflation fears rather than economic growth. Those three metals are investors' preferred inflation hedges. Inflation hedging demand is likely what's behind the upward pressure on prices. 

 

Europe's great rearmament frenzy and the hundreds of billions of euros being allocated for it might end up adding more upward pressure to prices of industrial metals, as well as energy. In all, this will end up giving a strong boost to commodity price inflation in what could end up being a self-reinforcing cycle, triggering the next leg in the widely anticipated commodity supercycle.

US Commodity Price Index (1795 to Present)
with Major Inflation Peaks (Red Dots) & Major Inflation Troughs (Blue Dots).
Shown as 10 Year Rolling Compound Growth Rate with Polynomial Trend at Tops & Bottoms.

Long commodity cycles suggest that currency debasement and inflation may peak in the early 2040s. A commodity supercycle could reach its peak by 2045 (indicated by the last red dot), following a long cycle wave that spans approximately 55 years, with each cycle growing 5 years longer over the past 200 years. This pattern implies that the next peak will occur around 2045, 65 years after the peak in 1980.

None of this will happen overnight: the commodity supercycle is expected to span a period of 10 to 25 years, and it will be marked with many price rallies, followed by corrections and consolidations in that time. It should therefore be navigated with due caution and an iron discipline.

Quoted from:
Alex Krainer (March 26, 2025) - Are metals kicking off the next commodity supercycle?

 

"Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices." 

 

See also:

Simon Hunt (January 11, 2025) - Markets Amidst Trump 2.0: Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in 2025.

Dumb & Dumber: US Senate Hearing on National Security | Judge Napolitano

 Tulsi Gabbard, National Intelligence Director & John Ratcliffe, CIA Director.

 

"God of all life, we seek Your guidance in a world filled with challenges. Today, prepare the members of this body [the US Senate Hearing on National Security] for the difficult work of solving life's riddles. Grant them the wisdom to find common ground and accomplish Your will in our nation and the world. Teach them to give of themselves for the good of others. Lord, amen."

 Opening Prayer for the US Senate Hearing on National Security, March 25, 2025.

Full Clownshow click [HERE]

 

Once upon a time, a transactional real estate shyster known as The Rabbi, a hillbilly, a crusader, a tattletale, a muy pendejo, and an aloha princess—each very ambitious and cunning—embarked on a journey to change the world forever. One day, they ...

 

 The Signal 'Houthi Chat Group'.

 

» I often think about what has happened to the concept of truth in our society. People lie constantly, deceive endlessly, and spin narratives all the time. It has become so difficult to know what to believe anymore. This is a tragic situation. And by the way, this is most apparent when it comes to Israel. There, you are often not even allowed to discuss how Israel behaves, or how the Israeli issue relates to other issues. It’s simply dismissed, and as a result, people end up speaking about it in vague, indirect ways. The level of dishonesty in our society is truly staggering.

» The US is killing without purpose. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do it.
We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians. «

 

We have been, and continue to be, complicit in supporting a genocide in Gaza since late 2023. If you look at our actions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, the number of people—civilians, including women, children, and the elderly—who have died is staggering. And when you look at how Israel behaves in the Middle East today, it's clear they are launching attacks in countries all around the region. And we support it. No one protests. They decide to attack southern Lebanon, and they do. They decide to attack Syria, and they do. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do. We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians. This is the point we've reached. « — John J. Mearsheimer, March 27, 2025.

 

See also: 

Max Blumenthal (March 25, 2025) - Hegseth Reveals US War Plans. (video)

Max Blumenthal (March 25, 2025) - Why did Jeffrey Goldberg leave the ‘bomb Yemen’ Signal chat?

Macklemore (March 23, 2025) - Once You Learn the Truth About Palestine, You Can't Unlearn It.

Martin Armstrong (March 17, 2025) - Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe.

Gerry Nolan (March 18, 2025) - Yemen Is Where Empires Go to Die.

Helena Glass (March 16, 2025) - Back Door World War III - A Netanyahu-Trump Collaboration.