Why a US War with Venezuela Would Benefit Russia | Dmitry Seleznyov

As cynical and crude as it may sound, a US war with Venezuela would benefit Russia. Venezuela could become America's "Ukraine," diverting US attention and resources away from our own conflict in Ukraine. The United States risks getting bogged down in a war it starts—especially if it launches a ground operation. In that case, Venezuela could turn into a second Vietnam for the US. Either way, South American countries would likely rally in solidarity to support it, uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." 

 

 » Uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." «

It won't be possible to tear the country apart with impunity; there won't be an easy walkover, and the US could face unacceptable losses. On the international stage, Russia and China would provide support—both politically and through hybrid means. On one hand, we'd be whispering sweet nothings to those Witkoffs or whoever's in charge in that administration, while on the other, quietly fueling Maduro's fire. Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? Of course, we'd offer help with the constraint that we're still tied down in Ukraine, but we'd do what we can.  

 

» Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? «

 

If things in Venezuela escalate to a hot phase and body bags start flowing back to Trump's "Great America," the MAGA electorate won't like it. Trump was elected to do the opposite. Fighting a war in Venezuela isn't just getting involved for Israel's sake or bombing Iran on the other side of the world—this one's right in America's backyard, with short supply lines. Not to mention that Trump would permanently lose his carefully cultivated image as a "peacemaker," the one he wants to be remembered for in history. A war in Venezuela would brand him forever as the man who tied a bloody ribbon of a second Vietnam around America's neck. Does Trump want that? Doubtful.

 

But Trump is pushing hard—he always plays the bluff game. Recently, Mr. Twitter declared a no-fly zone, and just the other day, he went even further with a full blockade. In effect, that's already a declaration of war. Will Maduro escalate? Sure, a direct conflict could end in different ways, but if Trump has already sentenced the Venezuelan president, what does he have to lose? Escalation often leads to de-escalation. Remember how young Kim Jong-un told Trump to get lost on surrendering nuclear weapons—and nothing happened; he ended up as a "good guy."
 

But for now, our friend Maduro is acting unconvincingly. Chanting "peace, peace, peace" won't stop an inevitable war. "You're only guilty of making me hungry," as the fable goes—red-haired Donnie's intentions are clear. So why wait? Look at the "barefoot" Houthis—they drove off American ships from clustering near their coast. And they're still standing strong. 

Or what—surrender?

Quoted from:
Dmitry Seleznyov (December 18, 2025) - Why a US War with Venezuela Would Benefit Russia.

(Чем выгодна России война США с Венесуэлой.) 

 

» The Pathetic Empire. «

Caracas, December 18, 2025: Venezuelan naval forces have begun escorting non-sanctioned oil tankers carrying petroleum derivatives, reportedly destined for China, in direct response to US President Donald Trump's December 16 announcement of a "total and complete blockade" targeting sanctioned vessels entering or leaving Venezuela. The escalation follows the US seizure on December 10 of the tanker Skipper, carrying approximately 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, which Trump indicated the US would retain. 

 

Venezuela has condemned these actions as aggression, requesting an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting to address perceived violations of international law. Domestically, PDVSA workers staged protests across multiple states in defense of national sovereignty, while Vice President Delcy Rodríguez reaffirmed the uninterrupted operation of the hydrocarbons sector. Amid the tensions, President Nicolás Maduro reported that Venezuela achieved 9 percent GDP growth in 2025 despite sanctions, with projections of at least 7 percent for 2026.

The Psychology of Revolution | Gustave Le Bon

In his 1913 analysis of The Psychology of Revolution, French physician and polymath Gustave Le Bon (1841-1931) argues that "political revolutions" are abrupt upheavals driven primarily by "affective and mystic elements" rather than "rational discourse," which he attributes to the "erosion of established traditions" and the "contagious spread of discontent."

 

"A revolution is effected from above, that is, by the leaders of the old regime; but when it is victorious it is rapidly vulgarised, because the people interferes and applies the only means in its power—violence. To destroy is within its scope; to reconstruct is beyond it. [...] The instinctive soul of the people is above all remarkable for its extreme mobility. Deceived by its own chimeras, it enthusiastically applauds its idols of a day, to overthrow them the next day in favour of others. No gods ever long survived its favour. This mobility renders the people credulous and ignorant at the same time. 

 

» An individual in a crowd is a grain of sand, which the wind stirs up at will. « 

Gustave Le Bon, The Crowd, 1896.

 

Le Bon argues that during political revolutions, individuals are driven more by inherent character traits than by intellect, with certain mentalities rising to prominence amid chaos:

  

[...] We have seen in all times apostles arise who have had an irresistible influence over the popular mind by cultivating its instincts and speaking its language. The people always follows them with enthusiasm, whether they be ignorant fanatics, hard and upright logicians, ferocious maniacs, or eloquent speakers. Whatever their aims, the leaders of the people are obliged to enter into reciprocity with it, to recognise its psychology, even if they do not share its sentiments. They must be in communion with it, or they will not act upon it. 

 

» The people loves equality, but it respects titles and prestige. «

 

[...] When a political party triumphs, all the forces of interest, ambition, and hatred which parties contain become enlisted in its service, so that the triumph of a political revolution is always accompanied by a complete overthrow of all the institutions of a country. The chief result of a revolution is to sweep away the forces which held together the edifice of government, which was perhaps already tottering, and to substitute for them nothing but the will of the victors, which is for that reason all-powerful. 

 

» Irresistible influence over the popular mind. «

  

[....] A revolution cannot change the soul of a people. This soul commands, and all must obey. It is for this reason that after a revolution the laws and institutions of a people are so often in contradiction with the interests of the new rulers, and also with the prescriptions of pure reason. But presently the laws are modified or abrogated, until they are more or less adapted to necessities. When the dogma which serves as the base of a revolution is victorious, the dissociated social elements which have resulted from the destruction of the old institutions become agglomerated under the action of new ideas."

Le Bon dissects the role of "the people" in such revolutions, distinguishing between the "conservative majority" and a "subversive minority" prone to violence. He argues that the masses are often manipulated and contribute mainly through destructive acts rather than constructive change:

 

"1. The Meaning of the Word 'People:' The term 'people' represents merely the superior portion of a nation. It comprises an elite: the nobility, clergy, magistrates, etc. By extension it was applied to the whole nation, and finally it has come to mean the most inferior elements of the population, the lower populace. We shall examine it in this last sense, and shall show what part the people plays in revolutions. From the political point of view the people may be considered in two aspects—as an army and as a crowd. As an organised army it plays the part of follower. As a crowd it is often revolutionary. 

 

» To become the master of the people one must know how to dazzle it. « 

 

2. How the People regards Revolutions: The revolutions are sometimes regarded with favour by the people, because they represent the triumph of its claims. But the people quickly becomes indifferent, and seeks only tranquility. It is always the people that suffers in revolutions, for it pays the cost in blood and poverty. It is for this reason that it often acclaims the return of a master. 

 

» To destroy is within its scope; to reconstruct is beyond it. «

  

3. The Psychology of Revolutionary Crowds: The revolutionary crowd is formed of transitory elements, recruited from all classes, but chiefly from the instinctive and criminal categories. It is the crowd that acclaims or murders kings, and whose violence has always been the principal factor of revolutions. The psychology of revolutionary crowds shows us that they possess the ordinary mental characteristics of all crowds: contagion, unconsciousness, exaggerated sentiments, intolerance, etc. They are above all remarkable for their credulity and their docility towards their leaders. 

4. The Part of the Leaders in Popular Movements: Although the people in rebellion generally begins by destroying everything, it soon grows weary of anarchy, and instinctively seeks a leader. It loves equality, but it respects titles and prestige. It was thus that all the great popular movements—those of the Reformation, the Revolution, etc.—were effected under the guidance of leaders. 

  

 » The people always follows apostles with enthusiasm. «

[...] From the preceding considerations we may draw the following conclusions: (1) The people, by reason of its instinctive soul, accepts without discussion the ideas presented to it. (2) By reason of its sentimental soul it incarnates these ideas in leaders, to whom it often delegates the direction of its destinies. (3) By reason of its mobile soul it personifies all its sentiments in a fetich. To become the master of the people one must know how to dazzle it, be able to make it hope, and if necessary know how to deceive it. (4) Finally, the leader must possess prestige, speak in images, incessantly repeat the same ideas in different terms, and know how to act by persuasion and never by reasoning." 

 

Le Bon further elaborates on the role of leaders and contagion in precipitating political revolutions, noting that discontent alone is insufficient without amplification through suggestion: 

 

"The role of the leader in all revolutions is very considerable. He does not create the beliefs which provoke them, but he directs them. Without him they would often remain latent and ineffectual. Although the revolution which overthrew the Bourbon dynasty was ripe, we know from the memoirs of contemporaries that without the prestige of Lafayette it would probably have remained nothing but a local riot. Whenever a revolution breaks out in one point of a territory, we see similar revolutions breaking out in succession in all the countries which surround it, even when communication is difficult. It was thus that in 1848 all Europe was inflamed by the revolutionary conflagration, and was shaken by it in spite of the slowness and difficulty of communication."

 

Le Bon finally examines the outcomes of political revolutions as often involving the establishment of new power structures, persecutions, and limited social transformations:

 

"Contrary to what occurred in religious revolutions, political revolutions show us merely peoples adapting themselves to new conditions of existence. We have already seen that this adaptation is effected by means of slow successive evolutions, which render violent revolutions useless. [...] The results of political revolutions being merely displacements of wealth and the triumph of certain classes, we may conclude, contrary to the general opinion, that they have been without psychological significance. They strike the imagination because they are accompanied by much violence, and blood flows in streams.

 

» Contagion, unconsciousness, exaggerated sentiments, intolerance, etc. «

 

But when we look a little closer we soon find that the economic or social changes which result from them are very slight. The importance of political revolutions must not, however, be exaggerated. They sometimes cost a country very dear, although they change nothing in respect of its natural conditions. It is especially when they involve disastrous wars that their results are most pernicious." 

 

Reference:

Gustave Le Bon (1913) - The Psychology of Revolution. 

 

See also:

Gustave Le Bon (1913) - The Psychology of Revolution. (complete audiobook) 

Gaetano Mosca (1896) - The Rulers and the Ruled (Elementi di scienza política).

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1924) - The Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

Neema Parvini (2018) - The "Iron Law of Oligarchy" and the Delusion of Democracy.

Alexander L. Chizhevsky (December 14, 2025) - Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030).

Mass Excitability during Solar Cycle 25 (2019–2030) | Alexander L. Chizhevsky

Solar Cycle 25, which spans from December 2019 to approximately late 2030, exemplifies Alexander L. Chizhevsky's (1897–1964) historiometric  framework. This model, laid out in his 1924 article "The Physical Factors of the Historical Process," links human psychological "excitability" to solar activity over the average 11-year solar cycle: 

"In each century, the universal cycle of historical events is repeated exactly 9 times. Throughout the world history of Mankind, beginning with 500 B.C. and until the present time, in each century I have discovered 9 clearly outlined concentrations of the initial moments of historical events. Thus, it can be considered that each cycle of the general historical, military or social activity of humanity is equal, on average, to 11 years." 

 

 Чижевский Александр Леонидович (1924) - Физические факторы исторического процессa.

 

  NOAA's latest Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot Number Progression Update, December 12, 2025.

 

 

"Figure 1: Percentage ratio of occurrences of historical events to years and periods

of the [11-year solar] cycle. Average output for 500 years (15th –20th centuries)."

Through analysis of over 2,000 major historical events from 500 BCE to 1922 CE across numerous countries, he determined that approximately 80% of significant upheavals—such as wars, revolutions, riots, migrations, and social unrest—occurred during periods of elevated solar activity, particularly the ascending phase and maximum of the sunspot cycle. In contrast, solar minima were associated with relative societal calm and passivity. According to Chizhevsky, each solar cycle divides into four phases: 

 

(I) Minimum Excitability (~3 years, 5% of "historical events" per Figure 1), 

(II) Growth Excitability (~2.5 years, 20% of events), 

(III) Maximum Excitability (~3 years, 60% of events), and 

(IV) Decline Excitability (~2.5 years, 15% of events). 

 

These are harmonized with NOAA's phases of the solar cycle (Minimum ~3 years, Rising ~4 years, Maximum ~3 years, Declining ~7 years) to fit the observed progression, with the smoothed peak at 160.9 sunspot numbers in October 2024. As of December 2025, the cycle is in the "Maximum Excitability" phase amid sustained high activity.

Phase I: Minimum Excitability (December 2019-November 2022): This phase aligns with NOAA's Solar Minimum in December 2019, featuring minimal sunspots and stable magnetic poles, comprising ~5% of "historical events" per Chizhevsky's Figure 1 (see above). It represents societal disunity and cultural focus:

 

"The characteristic features of this period are the following: disunity of human masses, indifference of the human masses to political and military issues, peace-loving mood of the human masses, compliance, tolerance, etc. The appearance of these psychological signs in the historically active human masses in the 1st period of the cycle is usually accompanied by the absence of any desire for any struggle for an idea or right, and therefore entails easy capitulation, surrender, throwing down of arms, flight from the battlefield, etc. 

 

» Absence of any desire for any struggle. «

[...] In the memoirs of contemporaries and in historical studies, this period is noted for its general peace-loving mood, unwillingness to enter into any disputes, the end of most military actions and the triumph of the principle of non-intervention in international and national military-political life. 

 

[...] Here the spiritual activity of Man begins, cultural values are created, pure art and science are placed in the corner of social life, replacing the stormy turmoil of recent days and devaluing with their achievements everything created hastily and precariously. In the period of minimum, humanity strives for calm, rests from the worries of previous years and gathers physical strength for the inevitably approaching new era of [social] unrest."

Phase II: Increasing Excitability (December 2022 – mid-2025): Corresponding to NOAA's Growth/Rising Phase, with escalating sunspots and initial pole shifts, this phase spans ~20% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It signals emerging ideologies and unity:

"Already the beginning of this period in historical studies is characterized by a significantly greater rise in the excitement of human masses than in the preceding period. There is still no unity of the masses of people; only little by little do the parties and groups that had fallen apart during the period of minimal excitability begin to reorganize, leaders are outlined, programs are defined. The power of suggestion manifests itself among the human masses: statesmen, military leaders, orators, the press are regaining their importance. 

 

» Impatience and nervousness of the masses. «

 

Questions, political and military, begin to appear from behind the horizon of public life and gradually become more acute. The tendency to perseverate homogeneous thoughts is noticeable everywhere, filling the mental activity of the human masses. In spite of the will of individuals, the concentration on the same military or political themes, in the presence of, of course, favorable factors, gradually increases; ideas circulating among the human masses begin to dominate. 

 

[...] At the end of the 2nd period, which can gradually assume a stormy character and reveal the impatience and nervousness of the masses of people, we notice one of the most important phenomena of the military-political life of communities, namely: the desire to unite the various nationalities that make up a given community for the purpose of defense or attack, and the merging of various political groups to counter other political groups. 

 

The significance of this period is that it lays the foundation for the further development of historical events during a given cycle in a given human community and, in part, even predetermines their course during the period of maximum excitability."

In October 2023 NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center released a revised prediction for solar activity during Solar

Cycle 25, and concluded that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than previously predicted.

  

Phase III: Maximum Excitability in Solar Cycle 25 (mid-2025 – mid-2028): As of December 2025, Solar Cycle 25 is firmly entrenched in Phase III, the period of Maximum Excitability, which spans mid-2025 to mid-2028. Encompassing NOAA's Solar Maximum, with peak sunspots, flares, and ejections, this phase accounts for ~60% of "historical events" per Figure 1. It drives transformative mass actions. This phase, as delineated by Chizhevsky, represents the apex of solar activity's influence on human behavior, characterized by heightened psychological tension and collective mobilization:

"This is the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron. 

 

 » The entire vast area of human madness. «

 

[...] Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses. 

 

[...] The period of maximum excitability may just be called the period of the emergence of the face of human masses and the sounding of the voice of the people. [...] The masses of people thirst for movement, the troops are restrained with difficulty, the soldiers are inclined to mutiny, and the people — to anarchy. In a word, the excitement increases unusually and the human organism seems to demand a discharge.

 

» The shedding of blood and the clanking of iron. « 

 

[...] The basis of the above is the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues. [...] This brings with it various phenomena characteristic of any struggle, and mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion. 

 

[...] Thus, the ground is prepared for the solution of questions of a world-historical nature — the ground on which systems of human communities are erected."

 

Chizhevsky describes Phase III as "the main stage of development of each cycle, resolving the world-historical problems of humanity and founding new historical epochs. It incites humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefactions: it embodies ideas in life by means of the shedding of blood and the clanking of iron." 

 

He emphasizes that during Phase III, "the mass activity of humanity all over the surface of the Earth, given the presence in human societies of economical, political or military exciting factors, reaches the maximum tension, manifesting itself in psycomotoric pandemics: revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states and new historical epochs in the life of humanity."
 

» Solution of questions of a world-historical nature. «

Plasma Tornado Erupts on the Sun. 

Russian Academy of Sciences Footage, December 11-12, 2025.

 

Central to Phase III is the amplification of leadership influence and mass unanimity. Chizhevsky notes, "Never does the influence of leaders, military leaders, orators, the press, etc., reach such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum intensity of the sunspot-forming activity of the Sun. During this period, sometimes one well-timed word or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses." 

 

Πόλεμος πάντων μὲν πατήρ ἐστι, πάντων δὲ βασιλεύς, καὶ τοὺς μὲν θεοὺς 

ἔδειξε τοὺς δὲ ἀνθρώπους, τοὺς μὲν δούλους ἐποίησε τοὺς δὲ ἐλευθέρους.

» War is both father and king of all; some he has shown forth as gods 

and others as men, some he has made slaves and others free. «
Heraclitus, also known as "The Dark One" (ὁ Σκοτεινός); 

Fragment DK22B53, ca. 500 BCE.

This fosters "the unanimity of the masses of people, which is especially clearly outlined in this period when resolving any military or political issues," leading to rapid dissemination of movements: "the astonishing speed of the spread of popular uprisings and mass [social] movements in general." However, this surge can devolve into extremes, as "mass movements of people usually undergo abnormal deviations. Sometimes the height of the struggle reveals the entire vast area of human madness, instability and passion. Elemental violence, bitterness, frenzy, thirst for revenge, epidemics of murder, panic, pogroms, devastating raids, desperate battles, mass exterminations, bloodbaths, as well as uprisings, mutinies, coupled with the manifestation of fanaticism and heroism — reach their apogee."

 

Major revolutions align with Solar Maximums, e.g.: 1775–1783 American War of Independence (Cycle 2), 1789 French Revolution (Cycle 3), 1910 Mexican Revolution (Cycle 14), 1906 and 1917 Russian Revolutions (Cycles 14–15), 1959 Cuban Revolution (Cycle 19), 1979 Revolution in Iran and Nicaragua (Cycle 21), Soviet collapse in 1989–91 (Cycle 22), 1998-2001 Revolution in Venezuela (Cycle 23), Arab Spring 2011 (Cycle 24), 2024 MIGA-MAGA Revolution (Cycle 25).

Contemporary events in 2025, amid elevated sunspot activity, resonate with these dynamics. Geopolitically, persistent conflicts such as the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine, the wars in and around Palestine and Sudan exhibit intensified diplomatic pressures for ceasefires, reflecting Chizhevsky's notion of resolving "world-historical problems." The fall of Assad's regime in Syria has spurred migrations and regional realignments, akin to the "migrations etc., creating new formations in the existence of separate states." Escalations in nuclear proliferation, space security, and hybrid warfare underscore the phase's potential for "devastating raids" and "mass exterminations." 

 

Phase IV: Decreasing excitability (mid-2028 – December 2030): This phase matches NOAA's Declining/Falling Phase, with waning sunspots and field preparation for reversal, representing ~15% of events per Figure 1. It fosters resolution and fatigue:

"The period of decline in excitability is, as it were, an echo of the stormy period of struggle and unrest that preceded it, the highest degree of tension of which has already passed, and a general need for calm and peace is felt. If there is a war, its heat gradually dies down, sluggishness is observed in military actions, their tempo slows down. 

 

» The depressive state of the masses. «

 

[...] Leaders, commanders, orators lose those forces that in the preceding period fettered the masses and forced them to obedience. The masses are already subject to suggestion with difficulty. [...] This lack of unanimity in the 4th period of the historiometric cycle can be called a stumbling block on which any newly-begun uprising, any mass activity risks being wrecked, since concentrated action, due to the reduction and relaxation of the connecting forces, becomes impossible. 

 

[...] Finally, the general decline in excitability is replaced by a psycho-physical state that can be called enervation. Popular assemblies and representations are dispersed without protest, uprisings are easily suppressed, wars do not flare up, and also peace negotiations are mechanically caused by the depressive state of the masses of people, which is often facilitated by physical exhaustion and fatigue."

 

Regarding the economic and financial realm during the remainder of Solar Cycle 25 into around 2030, Helioeconomist Aleksander Valkov recently put forth the following forecast: Given that Solar Cycle 25 reached a stronger-than-expected maximum around 2024–2025, his HELI index indicates that the current global economic expansion has already peaked or is in its final stage. The model forecasts an accelerating contraction phase leading into a major multicycle trough centered on the early 2030s—precisely the period when the next solar minimum is expected. Leonty Miroshnichenko's findings support Valkov's correlation:  "On average, the difference between the peaks and troughs of solar activity and economic cycles does not exceed six months." Furthermore, historical analysis shows that 88% of recessions since the 1800s and 100% of major financial crises occurred during the downturn of sunspot cycles.

 

 Reference:

 Alexander L. Chizhevsky (1924) - The Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

(Чижевский Александр Леонидович (1924) - Физические факторы исторического процессa.)

Aleksander Valkov (2025) - Helioeconomics: Solar Cycles as the Hidden Pacemaker of Global Economic Fluctuations. 

Leonty Miroshnichenko (2023) - Kondratiev Waves Aligned with Solar Cycles.  

Suitbert Ertel (1996) - Space Weather and Revolutions - Chizhevsky's Heliobiological Claim Scrutinized.  

Gustave Le Bon (1913) - The Psychology of Revolution. 

Kemalhan Gerçeker et al. (November 26, 2025) - Simplex Projection Predictions of the Remainder of Solar Cycle 25. 

 NOAA (2025) - Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression.