Showing posts with label WW3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WW3. Show all posts

Thursday, April 17, 2025

China is Ready for Any Type of Conflict and Economic Decoupling | Victor Gao

China will fight to the end, as the government has declared, and it has now imposed a retaliatory tariff of up to 125 percent on all US exports to China. If things are not handled properly, this could mean a complete halt to China-US trade—both ways. No goods will be exported from the United States to China, and everything made in China will cease to be sent to the United States. This is decoupling. 

»
 In essence, China is now declaring that it is prepared to fight to the end
—whether in a trade war, tariff war, technology war, or even a real war. «

If the United States truly welcomes this, China will reciprocate, leading to the breakup of China-US relations. Whether this situation evolves from peace to war remains to be seen, but we must all be prepared. In essence, China is now declaring that it is prepared to fight to the end—whether in a trade war, tariff war, technology war, or even a real war. So, the ball is in Trump's court. He decides, and China will reciprocate. China will never succumb to US pressure.


This is the moment of truth. China wants to defend free trade; the United States wants to destroy it. The rest of the world is watching, and a choice will be made by the end of the day. However, China will not accept being held at gunpoint, forced to swallow impossible demands. China is a country that values dignity and decency above economic gains or losses. So, if you want to hold a gun to China’s head, China will hold a gun to yours. If you want to strike China on the cheek, China will strike back. That is the decision and determination of the Chinese nation.

Ref
erence:

» Americans, you don't need a tariff. You need a revolution. «

They rob you blind, and you thank them for it. That's a tragedy. That's a scam. That's why I'm saying this right now: Americans, you don't need a tariff. You need a revolution. For decades, your government and oligarchs shipped your jobs to China—not for diplomacy, not for peace, but to exploit cheap labor. And in the process, they hollowed out your middle class, crushed your working class, and told you to be proud while they sold your future for profit. 

Yes, China made money. But we used it to build roads and lift millions out of poverty. From healthcare to raising living standards, we reinvested in our people. My family benefited from it too. What did your oligarchs do? They bought yachts, private jets, and mansions with golf course driveways. They manipulated markets, dodged taxes, and poured billions into endless wars. And you? You got stagnant wages, crippling healthcare costs, cheap dopamine, debt, and poverty wrapped in a flag—made in China—while they picked your pocket. 

As part of the growing 'Trade War' TikTok trend, a Chinese factory has gone viral after 
revealing that the true cost of producing a $38,000 Hermès Birkin bag is just $1,400 
— and now, high tariffs are ringing the death knell for Western luxury brands.

For 40 years, both China and the United States benefited from trade and manufacturing, but only one of us used that wealth to build. This isn’t China’s fault. This is yours. You let this happen. You let the oligarchs feed you lies—while they made you fat, poor, and addicted. Now they blame China for the mess they created. You don’t need another tariff. You need to wake up. You need to take your country back. I think you need a revolution.

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

NATO Is Now A Zombie Alliance Without Legitimacy | Admiral Cem Gürdeniz

We are witnessing the second great breakdown of a global security order since World War II. The first came after 1990, when the Soviet Union voluntarily dissolved, and Washington rapidly expanded its influence across Eastern Europe. But today, 80 years after the end of that war, the US is beginning its own retreat – shifting its strategic center of gravity from Europe to the Asia-Pacific.

» Israel’s genocide in Gaza, supported openly by Washington, 
shattered any remaining legitimacy. «

[...] Its strategy is no longer about global control but about retrenchment and preparing for great power rivalry in the Pacific, particularly with China. This isn’t a tactical adjustment – it’s a systemic collapse. NATO’s defeat in Ukraine was not just a battlefield loss – it was the end of an illusion.

The post-1990 order was built on the illusion of unipolarity. The US declared liberal capitalist democracy as the universal model. In this system, the West controlled finance, China was tasked with manufacturing, and resource-rich states were expected to supply energy and raw materials. But this model encountered fatal contradictions. US military power failed in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. Instead of stability, it brought destruction. Russia reasserted itself militarily after 2008. China rose economically and technologically, challenging Western hegemony.


And together, they built a Eurasian counterbalance. Most crucially, the Global South saw through the facade. Israel’s genocide in Gaza, supported openly by Washington, shattered any remaining legitimacy. The Western system now lies exposed – economically overleveraged, diplomatically isolated, and militarily vulnerable.

Trump is not the architect of this collapse – he is the product of it. […] He knows NATO is a burden, not an asset. His challenge is not ideological – it’s existential. He wants to keep the American empire alive by cutting it down to a sustainable size. NATO is now a zombie alliance. It exists more as a myth than a functional military bloc. Its expansion has been reckless. Its operations – from the Balkans to Libya to Ukraine – have destabilized entire regions, and its credibility is collapsing.

» 
The way forward is to secure our geopolitical destiny in Eurasia – on our terms«

[…] BRICS is growing. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is expanding. Trade is moving away from the dollar. Regional powers like Iran, India, Brazil, and Türkiye are asserting themselves. This is not a return to Cold War blocs. It’s a rebalancing – a world where no single center dominates.

[...][Türkiye] must abandon the illusion that foreign direct investment and EU integration will save us. That model has failed. It brought debt, privatization, and dependency. Our economy must be built on production, not speculation. This means reindustrialization, food and energy sovereignty, and regional trade in local currencies. We must protect strategic sectors from foreign ownership. Our Central Bank must be independent not just from the government, but from foreign influence. […] The way forward is not to chase illusions in Brussels. It is to return to Kemalist principles, integrate with the rising Asian century, and secure our geopolitical destiny in Eurasia – on our terms, not theirs.

Monday, April 14, 2025

Rare Earth Retaliation: China Chokes America’s War Machine | Gerry Nolan

China just halted exports of key rare earths to the US, slapping export controls on seven categories of critical metals and magnets used in everything from EVs and smartphones to fighter jets, missiles, and drones, delivering a surgical strike to the spinal cord of America’s supply chain. Welcome to the new trade war: geoeconomic strangulation, without firing a shot.

China halts export of key rare earth minerals and develops a ‘regulatory system’ 
to completely block certain minerals from reaching specific US companies.
 
[...] You want to slap 145% tariffs on our goods? Fine. But good luck assembling a single Javelin, F-35, or iPhone without our dysprosium, terbium, and neodymium. China controls over 90% of global rare earth production. Washington just remembered that the hard way. This isn’t just a tit-for-tat move. It’s strategic economic warfare, targeting the soft underbelly of US dominance: the illusion that it can wage hybrid war without being vulnerable itself.

» Dumber than a sack of bricks. «

And now? The US is scrambling: Talking about deep-sea mining, rushing to build stockpiles, and begging Australia and Canada to step up. Canada, eh? Too little, too late. You spent three decades offshoring everything, and now your empire can’t build a toaster, let alone a missile guidance system, without Beijing’s blessing. Ok, maybe you can build a toaster, to be fair. [...] Every chip, every drone, every smart weapon in the Pentagon’s closet runs on components China can choke off in 48 hours. Trump called it “Liberation Day.” 
 
Quoted from:

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025 | Yuriy Matso

 S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.
 
In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is [...] labeled "Panic. Dumping."
 
S&P 500 2025 vs 1969 = J.M. Funk’s 56-Year Cycle.
 Not always exactly to the day, but often close. Directions are more important than levels.
 

Reference:
20
25 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!


 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:
"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 
And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 
 
POTUS 45 | 47 

  
 
 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,
and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

»
There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «
 
 
» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5
and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we had a 20w high late March and are now heading lower into the 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.
 

Friday, April 4, 2025

We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.
 
Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 
accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.



The formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. 
 Brilliant minds at work: Tariffs = Trade Deficit/US Imports.

Dei
ndustrialized Reality
: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 
Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 
 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dol
lar’s Status at Risk
: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 
 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Ove
rreach and Collapse
: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 
Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

 
  


  
»
The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «
 
 
 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 
They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Medvedev Watching the River Flow


» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 
We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «
 

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.
 
From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.
 
 

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.


2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.


3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.


4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.


5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.


6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.


7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.


8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.


9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.


 

»
China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. «Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.