Buffett Indicator Hits All-Time High with Market Cap-to-GDP Ratio at 212.1%

As of August 12, 2025, the Warren Buffett Indicator has surged past 212%, marking its highest level on record.

 US market cap twice US GDP.

 

 

US debt hits $37T — surpasses entire $31T US GDP, 

matches combined GDP of China, Germany, Japan, India & UK.

 

The Buffett Indicator, or Market Cap-to-GDP ratio, rose to prominence as a long-term stock valuation metric following Warren Buffett’s 2001 'Fortune' interview, where he called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." 

The 2000 dot-com bust and the 2007 crash may seem mild by comparison.

 

The ratio compares US public market cap to GDP using the Wilshire 5000 Index, covering nearly the entire stock market.

 

Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!

 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:

"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 

And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 

 

POTUS 45 | 47 

 

» The US is playing a zero-sum game. China is committed to opening ever wider to the world. « 

  

» May he continue to work hard for the ultimate mission entrusted to him by the Party. « 

 

 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,

and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

» There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «

 

  SubuTrade: Markets Report. Bear Markets & Trade Wars, April 05, 2025.

 

» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5

and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we had a 20w high late March and are now heading lower into the 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.

 

Philip Hopf (April 3, 2025) - Is Trump crashing the world economy now? (video)

 

See also:
TPR (April 4, 2025) - 10-Day Cycle Expected to Bottom on Tuesday, April 8, Around 8:30 a.m.