Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Don't Think That What's Now Happening Is Mostly About Tariffs | Ray Dalio

At this moment, a huge amount of attention is being justifiably paid to the announced tariffs and their very big impacts on markets and economies while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead. 
 
Don't get me wrong, while these tariff announcements are very important developments and we all know that President Trump caused them, most people are losing sight of the underlying circumstances that got him elected president and brought these tariffs about. They are also mostly overlooking the vastly more important forces that are driving just about everything, including the tariffs.  

 The 80 Year Big Debt Cycle.

The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place. More specifically:
 
1.  The monetary/economic order is breaking down because there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this unsustainably large debt. The debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a) debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on too much debt because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies. 
 
The Art of War vs The Art of the Deal.

There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. For example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can't trust that the other major players won't cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). This is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly led to the same sorts of problems we're seeing now. 
 
So, the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle class jobs in the US and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy. In an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances, which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink one way or another. 
 
  From Trade War to Financial War.
Chinese Embassy in the US, April 11, 2025.

Also, it should be obvious that the US government debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to is unsustainable. (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.)  Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at another time.  

2.  The domestic political order is breaking down due to huge gaps in people's education levels, opportunity levels, productivity levels, income and wealth levels, and values—and because of the ineffectiveness of the existing political order to fix things. These conditions are manifest in win-at-all-cost fights between populists of the right and populists of the left over which side will have the power and control to run things. This is leading to democracies breaking down because democracies require compromise and adherence to the rule of law, and history has shown that both break down at times like those we are now in. History also shows that strong autocratic leaders emerge as classic democracy and classic rule of law are removed as barriers to autocratic leadership. Obviously, the current unstable political situation will be affected by the other four forces I’m referring to here—e.g., problems in the stock market and economy will likely create political and geopolitical problems.  
 
 » Tariffs on US goods will rise to 125% — and this will be our final adjustment.
Regardless of future US actions, China will no longer respond. «
China's Customs Tariff Commission, April 11, 2025.

3. 
The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power (the US) that dictates the order that other countries follow is over. The multilateral, cooperative world order the US led is being replaced by a unilateral, power-rules approach. In this new order, the US is still largest power in the world and is shifting to a unilateral, "America first" approach. We are now seeing that manifest in the US led trade-war, geopolitical war, technology war, and, in some cases, military wars.  
 
4.  Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive, and
 
5.  Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life, including the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international order (by affecting interactions between countries economically and militarily), and the costs of acts of nature. 
 
 Shadowboxing in a hall of mirrors:
On April 12, Trump excluded smartphones and electronics
from his April 9, 125% tariff on China.

Changes in these forces and how they are affecting each other is what we should be focusing on. For that reason, I urge you to not to let news-grabbing dramatic changes like the tariffs draw your attention away from these five big forces and their interrelationships, which are the real drivers of Overall Big Cycles changes. 
 
[...] I also urge you to think about the interrelationships that are critically important. For example, think about how  Donald Trump's actions on tariffs will affect 1) the monetary/market, economy order (it will be disruptive to it), 2) the domestic political order (it will likely be disruptive to it as it will probably undermine his support), 3) the international geopolitical order (it will be disruptive to it in many obvious ways that are financial, economic, political, and geopolitical) 4) climate (it will somewhat undermine the world’s ability to deal with the climate change issue effectively), and 5) technology development (it will be disruptive in some positive ways to the US, like bringing more technology production into the US, and in some harmful ways, like being disruptive to the capital markets that are needed to support technology development and in too many other ways to innumerate here.)
 

Trump commenting on how much money his billionaire friends made when he paused
tariffs on Wednesday, April 9: "He made $2.5 billion today, and he made $900 million". 
Corruption, insider trading, or just good timing and coincidence? 
April 10, 2025.

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.


2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.


3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.


4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.


5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.


6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.


7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.


8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.


9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.


 

»
China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. «Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.
 

Monday, March 17, 2025

Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe | Martin Armstrong

Comment by EKL: Your computer model tracks capital flows, [...] capital is being withdrawn globally in preparation for war. We could not make decisions in our boardroom without consulting Socrates anymore. It is unbiased and that is the most valuable asset in times of such uncertainty. God bless.

Martin Armstrong's Socrates Daily Global Capital Flows Heat Map as of March 17, 2025.
 » From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Yes, you are correct. We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. It is even leaving Canada and Mexico. 

Friday, March 14, 2025

The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention | Jim Bianco

It might sound too extreme to even consider, but the idea that President Donald Trump could force some of the US's foreign creditors to swap their Treasuries for "zero-coupon" bonds—in other words, zero-interest bonds that do not mature for a century—in order to lighten the nation’s debt load is being taken seriously by some.

That’s exactly what Jim Bianco guided his clients to discuss after rumors of a so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord" began to spread. To be clear, Bianco doesn’t anticipate this happening soon, if ever. But in many ways, that’s beside the point. Trump, Bianco said, could very well disrupt the entire global financial system within the next four years, and Wall Street needs to be ready for that.


Bianco, a market veteran with over 30 years of experience and founder of Bianco Research, explained that restructuring America’s debt is part of the Trump administration’s broader plan to overhaul global trade through tariffs, weaken the dollar, and reduce borrowing costs—all with the goal of making US industries more competitive on the world stage. Other pieces of the plan include setting up a sovereign wealth fund (which Trump has already started) and pressuring US allies to contribute more to defense spending.

“You have to start thinking big and you have to start thinking bold about what is going on here. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is not actually a thing, it’s a concept. It is a plan to basically remake some of the financial system.”

 
The term “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is a play on the 1985 Plaza Accord and the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement—two major agreements that shaped the modern global economic system, each named after the locations where they were negotiated.

Many of the ideas behind this agenda stem from a November 2024 paper by Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers. In it, the former Treasury official proposed a strategy for reforming the global trading system and addressing economic imbalances caused by the “persistent dollar overvaluation.” The paper also highlighted that President Trump has long been focused on putting American industries on a fairer playing field globally.

»
Everything that President Trump’s administration is doing will be disinflationary. «
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, February 20, 2025.
 
Bianco noted that this vision doesn’t necessarily clash with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that “the US still has a strong dollar policy.” This is because, while the US may aim for a weaker trade-weighted dollar (which measures the dollar’s value against that of its trading partners) to narrow the trade deficit, financial indicators of the dollar, such as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, could still rise. 

“Stephen Miran and Scott Bessent seem to be kind of singing from the same hymn sheet. The whole idea hopefully is lower the value of the dollar, lower the value of interest rates, bring down the debt burden in the country. And that’s what they’re trying to do.”

» Scott Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. He is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0,
not Elon Musk. His role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable.
Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency,
and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius.
But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident,
often don’t hide their moves or intentions. «
 
Bianco, echoing Miran’s paper, also referenced former Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, who has long argued for a “Bretton Woods III” overhaul as part of his theory that the dollar will play a less dominant role in global finance in the coming decades. One of Pozsar’s central ideas is that other countries should pay more for the security and stability provided by the US. One potential way to do this is by swapping some of their Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradable zero-coupon bonds. If these nations needed immediate access to funds, the Federal Reserve could make it temporarily available to them via a lending facility.

Bianco emphasized that such a debt swap may never actually happen, and if it were pursued, it would require extensive international cooperation and could potentially destabilize the global financial system. However, bond markets have shown little concern so far, with Treasury trading remaining relatively calm in recent days. Still, Bianco’s point in discussing these ideas with his clients is to highlight the magnitude of the potential changes ahead.

“Take them seriously, don’t take it literally. If Trump is willing to blow up NATO, why wouldn’t he be willing to blow up the financial system?”

Reference:

Monday, March 3, 2025

Europe Will Go to War, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct | Martin Armstrong

It looks like every country in Europe is backing more war in Ukraine. And now, there is renewed talk of an EU army. Martin Armstrong says:

"Why? Because they all are facing the collapse of the European Union. The debt is just unbelievable. They never consolidated. Between Covid, Climate Change and sanctions on Russia, the German economy has shrunk 3% to 5%. The economic growth of the EU is appalling. Europe is falling, and this is why they need war. So, they are backing Zelensky.”

European NATO members desperately want World War 3 with Russia, and the US to help them.
Most, if not all, in this group photo would be ideal candidates to be hanged or shot 
 
In a new report on March 2nd, Armstrong lays out the case why war in Europe is coming and coming soon:

“In this report, I gathered a bunch of headlines:  London Financial Times, what’s the headline?  ‘America is Now the Enemy of the West.’ This is why Trump is saying ‘We are out.’  Zelensky has admitted that 58% of the $350 billion the US gave him is missing.  You cut the funding, and you are going to find out the truth. Trump should cut every single penny. Bring it all out. Zelensky is counting on Europe to replace the United States. This is why he’s so arrogant [...] Trump should get the hell out of NATO–as soon as possible.

 » Trump should get the US out of NATO asap. From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, gold is coming
to America, the US dollar is not collapsing anytime soon, the Euro will become extinct, Ukraine is going dead. That's it. « 
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

So, why are all these reports coming out in the last few months about gold coming to America from Europe? Armstrong says, “Last week, I was on the phone, and I can’t tell you how much, but when you are about to go into war, capital moves. [...] Right now, I am concerned from about May 15th on. [...] Our computer
“Socrates” says Europe is going into war, and I put it into this report, Europe will lose. [...] This is why the gold is coming to America.”


Armstrong also contends you can forget about predictions of the US dollar collapsing anytime soon - it won’t. Armstrong says, “The Euro will become extinct.” Armstrong also predicts, “I published what the computer “Socrates” put out on Ukraine. It’s a flatline, and I have never seen that on any other country. It’s a flatline. It’s going dead. That’s it.”

 
Martin Armstrong (March 4, 2025):
» We must get out of NATO. «
 

Sunday, February 9, 2025

China Already Won the Next Trade War with the US | Keyu Jin

Keyu Jin, a Harvard-educated professor from the London School of Economics, is one of the world’s leading insiders into the Chinese economy. She lays out the exact reasons why China is entering this next trade war with the US from a position of strength. China embraces strategic long-term planning, and when Donald Trump launched his first trade war against China back in 2018, the Chinese learned a valuable lesson: Never be too reliant on your main trading partner. China has long been preparing for reduced exposure to the US, diversifying in all aspects—not just in terms of trading partners and investment, but also in digital currencies and payment systems.  
 
 » Never be too reliant on your main trading partner. Diversify.
Don't be at the mercy of the dollar, nor the US financial system. «
 
Over the past seven years, China has strategically developed key industries that are set to dominate the future of our world: AI, quantum computing, blockchain, e-commerce, EVs, 5G networks, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, materials science and nanotechnology, advanced manufacturing, 3D printing, robotics, space exploration, high-speed rail, advanced transportation and urban technologies, green technologies, agri-tech, and geoengineering—mirroring the complete technocratic Fourth Industrial Revolution agenda of the World Economic Forum. At Davos, Professor Jin explains how this shift has transformed the global economy:
 
"If you look at industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels—what they call new productive forces—very little of it is actually going to the US. This shift has pushed China to embrace new opportunities, sign new trade deals, and establish new trading partners. Global trade has actually expanded, and China's position in the world as a share of global exports has risen, while the US's has declined. So, while the US is retreating, China is opening up as much as possible. This is why Premier Li Keqiang (2013-2023) has repeatedly said China will unilaterally open up, offering zero tariffs to the least developed countries. We should not underestimate the degree and pace of fragmentation that is happening—multipolarity and the rise of economic blocs. We are already seeing the data, whether it's investment or trade, regarding the interaction between non-aligned blocs and aligned blocs. If you go around the world, asking the likes of Brazil or Asian countries, what are they saying? The same thing: Diversify. Don't be at the mercy of the dollar, nor the US financial system."

China halted exports of several rare minerals, including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard
materials to the US, citing their dual military and civilian uses. In response to a 10 percent levy
on Chinese goods, China also imposed a 15 percent tariff on US imports of coal and LNG.
 
This cannot be overstated. All of these new industries in which China is leading—electric vehicles, solar panels, and high-speed rail—are mostly not going to the United States. In the US you won’t see a single Chinese EV on the road. But in places like Thailand, Australia, and Brazil, Chinese automakers are dominating the market. Look at the top 20 fastest-growing economies on earth: Every single one of them is in the Global South—in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, not a single American or European country is on that list. Many Western economies are stuck with zero to 3% growth, teetering on the edge of recession. And who is the number one trading partner for every single one of these rising economies? China. China hasn’t just dominated the fastest-growing regions; it has become the largest trading partner for the majority of the world. That’s why China can withstand this tariff war far better than the US.

»
D
eepSeek R1 is AI's Sputnik moment. «
Marc Andreessen, January 26, 2025.

Simply put: China has a plethora of options. But it doesn’t stop there. It’s not just about who is growing; it's also about who is declining. Western economies are not what they once were. The average American—and European, for that matter—simply doesn't have the same disposable income they did decades ago. And this trend is only worsening. This presents a massive problem for Trump, as his biggest leverage in this trade war is supposed to be the US consumer market. But what happens when that market isn't as powerful as it used to be? That only leaves the industrial sector, where the US is simply no match for China.

»
This is China’s, not AI's, “Sputnik moment”. «

At the same time, the United States currently has sanctions on more than a third of the global economy, including 60% of all poor countries. As a Global South country, looking at who to trade with, it’s a no-brainer: China is clearly the better partner. While China has been building bridges and securing trade deals, Trump has been doing the exact opposite—taxing his closest allies. Under his administration, every country or region that has a trade surplus with the United States is now a target. The message is clear: If your country sells more goods to the US than the US sells to yours, you have two options: either relocate your industries to the US or face trade tariffs. Even Canada—one of the United States' closest allies and neighbor—was hit with 25% tariffs before Trump saw the stock market crash and quickly announced a 30-day pause to give time for Canada to negotiate. What Trump will do with the rest of the world has yet to be seen, but one thing is for certain: other countries aren't waiting around to find out. Every major economy is scrambling to diversify and find alternatives to US trade dependence.

» 2025 is the year when the investment community realizes that China is surpassing the rest of the world. «
Deutsche Bank, February 05, 2025.
 
While the US falters and the EU looks for an economic lifeline, Asia has firmly established itself as the center of global economic growth, with China at the helm as the undisputed economic superpower. China now accounts for more than 30% of the world’s total manufacturing output. China has completely leapfrogged the rest of the world in producing sophisticated industrial goods at a scale and cost that no Western country can compete with. 
 
Looking west, the Persian Gulf nations—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others—have also begun prioritizing their relationships with China and India. Why? Energy. Asia now accounts for over 70% of total oil and gas exports from the Gulf. This energy trade, combined with the region's critical position along the New Silk Road connecting China to Europe, has turned the Middle East into one of the biggest beneficiaries of this new global economic order. 
 
»
 
I expect a sharp recovery in China’s economy in the latter half of 2025, boosting global performance. «
Simon Hunt, January 11, 2025.
 
The global landscape is quickly changing. One of the fastest-growing economic blocs is ASEAN—the Southeast Asian powerhouse economies of Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. These countries are crucial for China’s future success. The biggest changes in trade can be seen in Asia. Nearly 60% of Asia's trade happens within the region, and half of the world’s fastest-growing trade corridors are there. In 2023, China's exports to ASEAN nations bypassed those from the United States. And with a majority of these countries either already in BRICS or set to join, these trade relationships will only deepen.

 
 » The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. « 

 
 » Americans are not known to like Chinese, nor are they known to like Muslims.
But somehow they like Chinese Muslims a lot. «
Former Foreign Minister of Singapore, George Yeo, on the Xinjiang Uyghur issue, May 23, 2023.

See
also:

Saturday, February 1, 2025

Trump and Stockholm Syndrome: In a Captured State | Steve Brown

The current reverence for Donald Trump as potential savior of the Western world is like a twisted version of Stockholm Syndrome. The Biden regime was so vile and so corrupt, that the manifestation of Trump (since his election) seems like a life raft thrown to a drowning person. In other words, the US situation is so hopeless that any sort of hope from anywhere must look good to the average US American now.
 
Trump is, of course, beholden to his donor class. It is a donor class where unsavory ‘trillionaires’ like Zuckerberg, Bezos, and their Wall Street moguls (including the banks) have ‘switched sides’ to back the Trump regime. And well, that is the mantle of power. Trump’s backers preside over war, mayhem, and death all over the globe with glee – just as Biden’s did. The only question for elites now – whether Democrat or Republican – is  how affordable this ongoing destruction may be.
 
The great debacle for the former United States is that its political leadership has failed — meaning both parties — and the Wall Street model of leveraged graft, theft, corruption, and greed has eventually devolved into a Western financial system built on bullshit and fake industry — which Pepe Escobar calls ‘casino capitalism.’ That devolution has now become apparent to the entire world. Trump has drawn a veil over donor influence by promoting a populist message of ending the ‘forever wars’ that the US engages in. But ending forever wars is not a goal that the entrenched Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) can allow, even if that is the will of the American people.

 » MAGA in itself is an admission that the US has already failed. «

Thus, Trump has used the immigration issue as cover too, to obfuscate a deeper agenda. That agenda includes confrontation with China, assistance to the Greater Israel project, and accepting advice to leverage crypto as a means to support the lagging primacy of the US dollar. The foregoing agenda will be enforced later during his regime after the dust has settled.

The point is, Trump promised to “make America great again” — which in itself is an admission that the US has already failed and is playing catch-up. China’s success in AI with Deep Seek is just one example. Bottom line, where US America was once about its industry and the ingenuity of its people, due to the criminality of Wall Street and its banks, that dynamic is gone. Ironically, all that remains of US success (as a unipolar hegemon) is the primacy of the US dollar.
 
 And the swamp? Still thriving.

US financial markets, including debt instruments, are still the most secure and reliable stash for trillions of US-manufactured Federal Reserve Notes to go. Of course, when those dollar investment vehicles become ignored by the rest of the world, that becomes an issue, and that process is underway. Meanwhile, I stand by my article from 2019, "Trump’s Limited Hangout: Populism Derailed."

 

While the above may seem a bleak message for the West, the bottom line is that the United States has been on the wrong side of history since the end of the Second World War. Only the redeeming asset of the US dollar and Western financial markets have maintained US primacy over these decades.

The hopeful message is that, as the US dollar erodes and eventually US financial markets crash, the Neocons and satanic creatures who have led US foreign policy for eighty years now will finally erode away as well—or at least be marginalized—and that's via their own historic folly, personal excess, and greed.