Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts

Saturday, August 8, 2026

COT: More Downside Ahead for DXY | Tom McClellan

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week following coordinated US–Japan intervention in the yen. The drop pushed DXY back below the 100.50 support/resistance level, marking the move above that level as a failed breakout. 


Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (per COT report data) by increasing their collective net short position. Looking back at other price tops on this chart, you may notice that when commercials do this—adding shorts after a downturn—there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.
 
Reference:
 
And every other 8-year top tends to be more significant (fatter arrows). 

Monday, July 13, 2026

S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->80D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Up (->20D peak). Copper Up (-> 80D peak). USDJPY Small Down (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (-> 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 80D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (20D trough).
  
S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) heading towards the next nominal 80-day cycle peak around late-July. Up.
 
US Dollar (DXY) close to an 80-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 
DXY is closing in on the next 80-day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20-day VTL, which likely marks the last 20-day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40-day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin looking for the next 20-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 
In Bitcoin, the new 20-week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20-day cycle trough. 

Thursday, February 19, 2026

"Prepare for US War on Iran within 72–96 Hours" | US Col. Douglas Macgregor

The US is on the verge of launching an air and missile war against Iran. It appears likely to begin within the next 72 to 96 hours. The goal of this operation is to inflict such horrific destruction on Iranian infrastructure and society that the leadership is forced to submit. A key factor in this timing is the Ford Carrier Strike Group. Having recently passed through the Strait of Gibraltar, it is expected to reach its position in the Eastern Mediterranean by Sunday. This group provides essential reinforcement for air and missile defense in Israel. Once this defensive shield is in place, the trigger could be pulled as early as Monday, February 23.
 
Surpassing post-Iraq benchmarks, a massive US mobilization—anchored by 50 stealth fighters,
150 transports, 35 warships, and 50,000 personnel—converges with peak IDF combat and rescue
readiness to signal a 90% strike certainty within a Trump-projected weekend window.

The political objective is not necessarily regime change, but rather forcing Iran to comply with a specific list of demands originally outlined by Prime Minister Netanyahu and adopted by the Trump administration (total nuclear cessation, ballistic missile dismantlement, abandonment of the Axis of Resistance including Hezbollah and various Shiite populations in the Emirates, Yemen, and the Gulf).

It is unlikely that Iran will submit. Unlike the 12-day conflict seen last June, this would be a "fight to the finish." Iran has built immense redundancy into its command-and-control structures. If the leadership is neutralized, local commanders have standing orders to continue missile launches automatically. With an arsenal of thousands of missiles, Iran could potentially sustain launches 24 hours a day for weeks. Furthermore, their air defenses—potentially bolstered by untested but advanced Chinese technology—could prove far more capable than anticipated. They claim the ability to identify targets at ranges of 700 kilometers, reaching deep into Iraq, Syria, and the Caucasus.

Tehran’s blockade of the Hormuz choke point—the artery for 20% of global petroleum
—leveraged alongside Sino-Russian naval maneuvers, would catalyze a systemic global
meltdown of vertical oil prices and runaway inflation.
 
This conflict will not be a "cakewalk." We must anticipate significant casualties—potentially hundreds, if not a thousand, if things go poorly. Beyond the immediate battlefield, the geopolitical consequences are vast. We should expect Iran to activate proxies throughout the region and perhaps even in the Western Hemisphere via cooperation with drug cartels. Turkey is increasingly hostile toward Israel and the US meddling in what they consider their "backyard." A war would create a massive refugee crisis that Turkey desperately wants to avoid, potentially pushing them to provide direct or indirect support to Tehran. Russia and China have invested billions in Iran. While they may not intervene directly, they will likely provide the Iranians with every possible resource to ensure they survive the onslaught.

This war is tied to a larger struggle over the future of the global financial system. We are seeing the rise of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others), which represents an alternative to Western institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. If the US appears militarily weak or unable to achieve its objectives in Iran, it could accelerate the collapse of the US bond market. Experts have long warned that if the 10-year Treasury yield hits the 5% mark, it could signal "game over" for the current global financial order.

Wars are easy to start but notoriously difficult to end. If we maintain the position that we will not negotiate—labeling every opponent as a "Stalin" or "Hitler"—we leave ourselves no path to peace other than unconditional surrender, which is rarely achieved through airpower alone. We risk entering a conflict that we cannot stop, resulting in a strategic defeat similar to Vietnam.

 
 
Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2026.
 
See also:

Sunday, January 4, 2026

US Decapitation Operation "Absolute Resolve" in Venezuela | Ron Aledo

The operation in Venezuela is a multi-agency effort aimed at regime change, intended to install a pro-US, easily controlled government and eventually take indirect control of the country's oil. This is designed to maintain the US dollar's status as the world standard for global oil transactions. 
 
 
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro kidnapped in US military strike,
Caracas, January 3, 2026, 4:30 AM local time.
 
In recent years, China, Russia, and other BRICS nations have attempted—with some success—to shift global oil transactions away from the US dollar toward the Chinese Yuan. Trump views this as a threat to the strength of the dollar and US global hegemony. This operation against Venezuela makes such a move away from the dollar more difficult.

 
Operation "Absolute Resolve" was a multi-agency effort involving US intelligence agencies, the military, law enforcement, and the Department of Justice. The steps of the operation were likely as follows:
 
1. CIA and DIA Intelligence Covert Actions: The intelligence agencies recruited dozens of Venezuelan military personnel, primarily Generals and Colonels in charge of Nicolás Maduro’s security and the air defenses of Caracas. Additionally, the CIA, DIA, and NSA provided real-time intelligence for the military operation, including the locations of air defenses, military leaders loyal to Maduro, and the movement of bodyguards and security systems. 
 
The US war machine struck Venezuela just hours after President Maduro met
Chinese envoy Qiu Xiaoqi on January 2 to renew 600 bilateral trade deals.
 
2. Military Action: The US military destroyed multiple targets, likely air defense systems and command-and-control centers manned by military and political elements loyal to Maduro. This was a massive attack that neutralized all air defenses in the area and disabled military units that could have protected Maduro. US Delta Force arrived via helicopter at Maduro's location; facing neither bodyguards nor defenses, Maduro and his wife surrendered. They were then transported via helicopter to the USS Iwo Jima, a US Navy amphibious assault ship. As of 17:30 ET, Maduro arrived in New York escorted by civilian officers from the Department of Justice (DEA, US Marshals, and FBI). This is significant for Trump, as it depicts the mission as a "police/law enforcement" and "counternarcotics" operation.
 
» For Venezuela, we are prepared to give even our own blood! «
 
3. Transfer to the Department of JusticeThe US military transferred custody of Nicolás Maduro to law enforcement officers to maintain the appearance of a legal operation against an indicted narcotics trafficker. This provides legal authority to the mission and protects the Trump administration from future court challenges or potential impeachment attempts by a Democratic-controlled Congress following the November 2026 elections. This phase mirrors the actions taken against the former ruler of Panama, General Noriega.
 
» We are going to run the country. «
 
4. Transition Inside VenezuelaThe Trump administration will likely negotiate with the Vice President—now President—Delcy Rodríguez to complete a transition to a new pro-US government. While María Corina Machado is a potential candidate for the presidency, Trump may appoint someone more widely accepted by the Venezuelan military to reduce the risk of a counter-coup in the immediate future.
 
 
other areas, including the center of the capital Caracas.
 
As the Maduro government remains in charge—at least in appearance—via Delcy Rodríguez, the possibility of escalation remains high. If Trump negotiates a peaceful transition with Rodríguez, the crisis may be resolved without violence. However, if Rodríguez resists due to pressure from pro-Maduro military elements or Cuban intelligence officers in Caracas, violence is likely. Trump may then push for a military coup against Rodríguez using CIA-recruited officers, supported by US airstrikes on the command posts of pro-Maduro generals.

» An attack of this nature undoubtedly has a Zionist tinge. «
 
Alternatively, Trump may leave Rodríguez as the nominal President if she agrees to follow all directives from the administration. However, the potential for unrest and armed resistance from segments of the population remains possible under all options.
 
» Trump's Plan A is the less bloody one. The people change 
hats very easily. The king is dead, long live the king. «
Ron Aledo on US Plans A and B for Venezuela, January 4, 2026.
 
Real Reason for the Operation: The primary motivation is likely an attempt to slow the efforts by Russia and China to replace the US dollar as the universal currency for oil transactions. Global oil trade is conducted in US dollars, which bolsters the dollar's strength and US global trade dominance. Recently, Russia, China, India, and other BRICS nations have challenged this by moving toward the Chinese Yuan. Trump views this as a threat to US dominance. By executing regime change, the US aims to install a friendly, manageable government in Venezuela and secure indirect control over its massive oil reserves, thereby reinforcing the dollar's position.
 
the most significant geopolitical realignments of the 21st century. «

» Vassalize Mexico, to complete a North American internal
economic circulation, replacing China in its supply chain. «

Secondary Objectives: A secondary goal is the defeat of the Cuban regime. By cutting the flow of Venezuelan oil and funding to Cuba, the regime will likely collapse within a year, potentially leading to a negotiated transition and a new pro-US government on the island.

 
It is important to note that Tulsi Gabbard and Vice President J.D. Vance were likely not active participants in this operation. The primary driver was Marco Rubio, who has long promised the fall of the Venezuelan and Cuban governments. Rubio views this as a "victory card" for a 2028 vice-presidential or presidential bid, potentially replacing J.D. Vance on the ticket.
 

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Silver and Commodities: The Case for Long-Term Investment | Andrew Hoese

Silver's recent surge marks the early stage of a major bull market, driven by long-term structural forces rather than short-term speculation. I challenge analysts who date macro bull cycles from 2000 due to recency bias, arguing instead that the true departure from sound money began with the Federal Reserve's establishment or the post-1933 era of gold confiscation and the Great Depression. 

Silver/S&P 500 ratio (XAGUSD/SPX, monthly closes, log scale), 1909-2025.
 
The Silver/S&P 500 ratio shows a double bottom breaking higher in 2020 after decades of decline, confirming a long-term uptrend. This aligns with a medium-term squeeze and short-term breakout, creating ideal conditions for significant gains. Short-term pullbacks, though possible after the recent advance, are immaterial against these broader supports. Trading the short term without long-term alignment poses the primary risk.
 
Broader macro dynamics reinforce this outlook. A weakening US dollar is prompting rotation into precious metals (Silver, Gold, Platinum), emerging markets (e.g., Africa and Latin America ETFs), and commodities. Declining US shale oil production—the first year-over-year drop in history—signals supply constraints that could drive substantial inflation, necessitating further money printing, higher rates, and accelerated dollar depreciation in a self-reinforcing cycle favoring hard assets.
 
Silver/Gold ratio (XAGUSD/XAUUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1931-2025. 
 
S&P 500/Silver (SPX/XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1890-2025.
 
S&P 500/Gold (SPX/XAUUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1884-2025.
 
 
Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.
 
Supporting evidence appears in parallel breakouts: gold miners versus the S&P 500, Silver versus Gold (a massive base signaling outperformance), and currencies like the Swiss franc against the dollar—all linked primarily to dollar weakness rather than isolated fundamentals. I advise against complexity via frequent trading, premature profit-taking, or asset class rotations. Instead, acquire undervalued assets and hold through the cycle. This commodity upswing is nascent; base metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Zinc, Lead), energy, and agriculture should join precious metals higher in 2026.
 
Successful investing requires aligning three timeframes: short-term (highly volatile and news-driven), medium-term (a few years, moderately stable), and long-term (a decade or more, frequently ignored). The greatest opportunities emerge when all are bullish. While short-term timing is notoriously difficult—explaining widespread losses among day traders—favorable long- and medium-term trends allow investors to endure temporary setbacks through patient holding of undervalued positions. 
 
On a logarithmic scale, Silver's advance remains in its infancy, poised for a sustained structural repricing distinct from prior cycles. Investors should resist selling early, as the ultimate magnitude may surpass expectations.

 
 
» An epic Silver fractal is playing out. « 
  
»
 A case can be made for $147. Big question is from where we get a correction. « 
Peter Brandt, December 26, 2025.
 
See also: 

Saturday, December 27, 2025

The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: New Price Reality | Rowan Hogg

As of December 22, 2025, Silver traded around $69 per ounce, marking a substantial surge from approximately $30 at the start of 2025—validating earlier predictions of a breakout beginning in September 2025. Silver is forecasted to experience significant upward momentum throughout 2026, entering a "new reality" of higher valuations. Despite intermittent corrections, I anticipate Silver ending the year 2026 substantially higher, supported by ongoing industrial demand and safe-haven flows. 
 
 » To analyze Silver astrologically, we use a chart dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. This marks the
first trade of Silver futures contracts in the United States on the National Metal Exchange, a precursor to the modern COMEX. 
Although Silver has been traded for centuries, this date represents the formalization of modern Silver futures trading. «

This prediction combines tropical Western astrology with Vedic sidereal techniques, using a foundational chart for Silver futures dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. Key signatures include Jupiter's interactions with natal Pluto and Jupiter (wealth expansion), Uranus influencing natal Venus (technological and revolutionary boosts), and lunar/Cancer emphases (silver's traditional rulership by the Moon).
 
Monthly Key Transits and Expectations for 2026
:


January: Upward momentum; Jupiter stations direct over natal Pluto (wealth expansion); Sun trines natal Venus.
February: Rise continues; Venus in eighth house aids investments; Mercury retrograde may expose manipulations.
March: Bullish with FOMO. Venus conjuncts North Node and Uranus, echoing prior surges.
April: Mainstream visibility increases. Venus transits the tenth house; potent conjunctions over natal Venus.
May: Multi-year potential boost. Venus over natal Moon; Uranus compresses natal Venus; Jupiter hits natal Pluto again.
June: Correction; Uranus squares natal Mars/Neptune (volatility, confusion); potential macro signals.
July: Rise amid banking stress; Sun over natal Pluto/Jupiter; possible Eastern market shift.
August: Slight gain despite health scare risks. Jupiter conjunct ascendant.
September: High volatility, possibly downward. Chiron and Ketu influences suggest overexpansion concerns.
October: Volatility in mining sector. Debilitated Sun and Saturn dampen speculation.
November: Renewed boom. Ketu with Jupiter; potential emergency monetary policies propel prices.
December: Volatile but overall higher close. Uranus stresses continue, yet speculative energy persists.

2026 is viewed as a transformative year for Silver, with commodities outperforming amid anticipated global challenges (e.g., political instability, financial strains).

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer" | Ahmed Farghaly

Many people are wondering what has been happening to the prices of gold and silver recently. We were expecting developments similar to those that occurred after the 2020 bottom of the Kuznets wave [aka the 18-Year Cycle] in global markets. The first chart below presents our cyclical analysis of the Commodity Price Index.
 
» We are in the “summer of summer.” «  Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars, log scale) from 1750 to 2025: 162-Year, 54-Year, 18-Year, and 9-Year cycles.       [Note, there is ongoing debate regarding the precise starting points of the 162-year and 54-year cycles.     It can be argued that both should be anchored to the Great Depression low of 1932, rather than to 1949-50.]
 » We are in the “summer of summer.” «
 Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars, log scale) from 1750 to 2025162-Year, 54-Year, 18-Year, and 9-Year cycles. 
[Note, there is ongoing debate regarding the precise starting points of the 162-year and 54-year cycles.
It can be argued that both should be anchored to the Great Depression low of 1932, rather than to 1949-50.]
It is evident that the 54-Year Kondratieff wave, first identified by Nikolai Kondratieff, is clearly reflected in this historical chart. Even more intriguing is the apparent presence of a 162-Year larger-degree Kondratieff wave that maintains the same 3:1 harmonic relationship to the Kondratieff wave as the Kondratieff wave does to its smaller counterpart, the 18-Year Kuznets wave. In our cyclical model, the cycle spanning three Kondratieff Waves is called the Hegemony wave.
 
972-Year Methuselah Wave = three 324-Year Enoch Waves
Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 
Hegemony Wave (156.88 y) = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves
Kondratieff Wave (52.72 y) = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves
Kuznets Wave 17.52 y) = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 
Juglar Wave (8.76 y) = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 
Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month cycles = six 40-Week cycles

Many economists have described the “seasons” of the Kondratieff wave—spring (stable growth), summer (high inflation), autumn (low inflation and asset bubbles), and winter (deflationary recession). Typically, spring coincides with the first Kuznets cycle, summer with the second, and autumn and winter with the third. The highest inflation rates within a Kondratieff wave occur during the summer phase, corresponding to the second Kuznets cycle, which began in 2020.
 
» To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven. « Ecclesiastes 3:1.
» To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven. «
Ecclesiastes 3:1.

We are currently in the second Kuznets cycle (2020 to late 2030ies) of the second Kondratieff cycle (2000 to 2050) within the ongoing Hegemony wave (1950 to 2100)—a phase that can be described as the “summer of summer.” This phase suggests that we are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War (1861–1865).

» We are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War. « US Inflation: Annual Percentage Change from 1774 to 2007, with Outlook Extending to 2106.
» We are likely to experience the highest inflation levels since the American Civil War. «
US Inflation: Annual Percentage Change from 1774 to 2007, with Outlook Extending to 2106.
  
Our next chart above illustrates annual inflation in the United States since 1777. A distinct 162-Year Hegemony wave pattern emerges, with an inflation peak in 1813 marking the summer of the first Kondratieff cycle, a higher peak in 1865 corresponding to the summer of the second Kondratieff cycle, and a lower peak during World War I representing the summer of the third Kondratieff cycle. A comparable peak reappeared in 1980. According to our cyclical outlook, inflation in the current Kondratieff cycle is expected to surpass the levels of the 1970s, as this phase represents the second Kondratieff cycle within the broader Hegemony wave—the “summer season.”

The most advantageous assets to hold at this stage of the cycle—both from the standpoint of the Hegemony wave and the Kondratieff summer—are precious metals, real estate, and equities that tend to benefit from periods of high inflation.

 
 
» Yet, what experience and history teach us is this: that nations and governments have never learned anything from history, nor acted in accordance with the lessons to be derived from it. « Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Introduction to Lectures on the Philosophy of History, Berlin, 1822.
» Yet, what experience and history teach us is this: that nations and governments have never
learned anything from history, nor acted in accordance with the lessons to be derived from it. «
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Introduction to Lectures on the Philosophy of History, Berlin, 1822.
 
See also: