Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Turning Points for 2025-2026 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below represents a dual Hurst cycle analysis of troughs and peaks in the 4-hour chart for Ethereum (ETHUSD). The orange line is the cycles composite, based on current estimates of periods, phases, and amplitudes.

Ethereum (4-hour bars) and Cycle Composite (orange line).

 

■ Next 40-week cycle peak (expected) late August or early September 2025.
■ Next 40-week cycle trough late 2025 or early 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle peak in May 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle trough September or October 2026.
■ Ethereum's bullish outlook from 2025 to 2028 predicts significant gains relative to Bitcoin.

Do not correlate price with the amplitudes of the cycle composite. Instead, use peaks and troughs as estimates of price turning points. 

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (August 11, 2025)  - Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Key Turning Points for 2025-2026. (video)

Long-term Spectrum Cycle Composite for ETH.

 

Ethereum Detrended Seasonality, 2020-2025.

 

Ethereum's 2016–2024 returns show Q1–Q2 strength (+20% avg monthly, May +36.48%, 55.56% positive), summer dips (Jun -5.84%, Sep -7.24%, 44.44% positive), and Q4 gains (+7.4% avg, 55–77% positive). Volatility: abs avg 20–30%, medians 4–5%.

Expectations for Remainder 2025 (Sep–Dec) and Q1-Q2 2026: Sep likely dips (-7.24%, 44% positive); Oct–Dec rebounds (+6–8%, 55–77% positive), possibly amplified by year-end sentiment. 2025 YTD momentum (+43.57% May, +41.22% Jul, +24.11% Aug) may soften Sep, but volatility (13–19% abs avg) warrants caution. Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar) rally (+17% avg, 66–78% positive); Q2 (Apr–Jun) strength Apr–May (+29% avg, 56–67% positive) then Jun dip (-5.84%, 44% positive), with ~+20% monthly early-year upside but high vol (20–30% abs avg).

 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.
Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025)  - Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets.

"Satoshi Nakamoto" and the Origin of Bitcoin | Richard A. Werner

The chain of events that led central banks and major financial institutions to get involved with blockchain-based digital currencies really started with the introduction of Bitcoin on January 3, 2009. Even before Bitcoin’s white paper appeared on October 31, 2008, the NSA—a sister organization to the CIA—had already published various white papers on related topics.
 

» They like to drop hints. «

Richard A. Werner.

When Bitcoin emerged, some mainstream organizations surprisingly promoted it early on. Outlets like the Financial Times, Reuters, and Bloomberg—sources that provide financial quotes—were already including Bitcoin prices and running major articles about it, even when Bitcoin was still tiny, fringe, and virtually unknown. Over time, the coverage increased. Large banks such as JP Morgan began announcing partnerships with people involved in Bitcoin or similar electronic, distributed-ledger, blockchain-related currencies. Then central banks joined in, saying, “We have to get in on this.” Bitcoin ended up serving as an excuse for central banks to claim there was market demand for such technology. Christine Lagarde even said this is why we need to consider introducing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)—because “we have to offer something.”

» We have to get in on this. «

Richard A. Werner.

 

The origins of Bitcoin remain a black box—nobody really knows. They do give hints, though. Having lived in Japan for 12 years, I was curious about Bitcoin’s supposed founder—this legendary, possibly fictional figure—named Satoshi Nakamoto. People speculated about who it might be, but no one could confirm an actual person by that name. Still, it’s clearly a Japanese name. Let’s look at it as a Japanese name, where the family name comes first: Nakamoto Satoshi. 

 

■ Written in Japanese, Nakamoto is 中本. The first character, 中 (Naka), means “middle,” “center,” or “inside,” and is also part of the name for China, the “Central Kingdom.” The second character, 本 (Moto), means “origin,” “source,” or “root,” and is used in the Japanese name for Japan. Together, 中本 (Nakamoto) can be interpreted as “central origin” or “center source.”
■ The name Satoshi (さとし) can be written with various kanji, such as 智 or 悟司. The character 智 means “wisdom” or “intelligence” in both Chinese (pronounced zhì) and Japanese (satoshi). In Japanese, two kanji are sometimes combined to deepen a concept—for example, 聡智 (sōchi) means “cleverness and wisdom,” where 聡 means “intelligent” or “clear-hearing,” paired with 智 for “wisdom.” 

 

In the context of Nakamoto Satoshi, this combination could be interpreted as “very central” or “Central Intelligence.” If you understand Japanese writing, it’s not hard to see. I also think intelligence agencies sometimes like to drop hints—because even though they operate in secret, they still like to be talked about.

Quoted from:
Richard A. Werner (2023) - The Origin of Bitcoin. (video)

 

See also: 

Richard A. Werner (2003)  - Princes of the Yen: Japan's Central Bankers and the Transformation of the Economy.

 

了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies. 

Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets | Philip Hopf

After price had risen significantly in recent weeks, Ethereum reached new interim highs at USD 4,070 on August 8, but may now be approaching a medium-term correction. 

 

Ethereum (weekly bars): Major resistance zone around USD 4,107.

The stablecoin market volume stood at USD 250 billion on July 23 and is currently growing by roughly USD 5 billion per week. It has already reached approximately USD 280.8 billion. Over 50% of all stablecoins operate on the Ethereum blockchain – a factor seen as clearly positive for Ethereum. Capital flows show significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks. A notable divergence is visible between retail investors and large investors (institutions/whales):

ETH (black line) Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k (blue line) sharply rising:

The whales are eating Ethereum alive.

 

■ Retail investors have been steadily reducing their Ethereum holdings for months, even during recent price gains.

■ Large investors, on the other hand, have been accumulating heavily. 

■ Number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH – currently worth around USD 40 million each – has risen sharply.

 

This is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal: “smart money” is buying while “dumb money” is selling.

 

Short-term price may reach USD 4,200–4,300, followed by a quick pullback.

 

From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone around USD 4,107 that has repeatedly triggered sharp corrections in the past. In the short term, price could reach this area or slightly exceed it (up to about USD 4,200–4,300). A breakout above this level might attract momentum traders, potentially followed by a quick pullback.

The expected correction could, depending on the exact high, amount to USD 1,000–1,300, bringing the price down to the USD 3,000 range or lower. This phase is viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

A correction down to around USD 3,000 should be followed by a medium-term
rise to USD 5,500–6,500 and long-term targets of USD 12,000–14,000.

In the medium term, after the correction, another upward move is anticipated, with targets between USD 5,500 and 6,500. In the long term price regions of USD 12,000–14,000 are considered possible. Exact timing cannot be derived from Elliott Wave analysis, as price movements and patterns can vary greatly in duration.

Reference:

Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025) - Ethereum: The Whales are Eating the Market Alive! (video)

 

ETH's 3-year cycle rises late 2025–mid-2027 as BTC’s 4-year cycle declines until early 2027, 

favoring ETH’s outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Trump’s GENIUS Act Sets the Stage for US CBDC | Martin Armstrong

While the world was distracted by the Epstein debacle, legislators introduced the GENUIS Act that would permit the US government to regulate stablecoins. The GENUIS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act), primarily sponsored by Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tennessee), permits the government to oversee, regulate, and define the $250 billion stablecoin market.

Now, stablecoins differ from cryptocurrencies as they are pegged to a stable asset such as a fiat currency or commodity. Cryptocurrencies are allegedly allowed to freely operate on the market based on supply and demand. The GENIUS Act will peg stablecoins to the US dollar and require issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve ratio in short-term treasuries or cash.

» I just voted NO on the Rule for the GENIUS Act because it does not include a ban on Central Bank Digital Currency and because Speaker Johnson did not allow us to submit amendments to the GENIUS Act. Americans do not want a government-controlled

Central Bank Digital Currency. «
Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, July 15, 2024.

 

Issuers holding over $10 billion in outstanding stablecoins will be subject to federal regulation under a newly created oversight agency. These issuers will now be deemed financial institutions and required to meet the traditional banking regulations as well. Stablecoins can no longer pay interest or act as an alternative to bonds. Perhaps most notably, issuers must not meet anti-money-laundering (AML) regulations, which are set to provide the government with unlimited access to payments.
 

So essentially, the government is turning the stablecoin into a digital dollar of sorts. The concern here is that this could delve into digitizing all currency and creating a CBDC. The act specifically provides the government with the authority to “block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions.” “A permitted payment stablecoin issuer shall be treated as a financial institution [and]…shall be subject to all Federal laws applicable to a financial institution located in the United States including…policies and procedures to block, freeze, and reject specific or impermissible transactions that violate Federal or State laws, rules, or regulations…”

» In 1971, we left the gold standard. Today, the groundwork is being laid for a cashless society controlled by digital currency.

You won’t control your money. The government will. This would end freedom altogether. «
Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, July 17, 2024.

 

This provision is not intended to protect the world against drug smugglers and thieves. This provision is intended to grant government unlimited control over how people spend stablecoins. The government could have easily frozen the accounts of those who refused the COVID-19 vaccination, for example, and the Biden Administration admittedly weaponized existing financial institutions to spy on Conservative Americans through their payment histories.

 

“Stablecoins are the bait and switch for direct-issued government CBDCs,” Bitcoin Magazine editor Mark Goodwin said, “Stablecoins can be programmed. Exactly like how we fear CBDCs will be programmed. They’re exactly the same tokenized mechanism… They can be taken out of your wallet. Your wallet can be blacklisted. A lot of the things that we fear about CBDCs are totally available within the tool set of Stablecoins.”

 

The GENIUS Act has received bipartisan support. Although Republican Hagerty championed the bill, he had bipartisan co-sponsors, including Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), Tim Scott (R-SC), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).

 

I warned that governments would NEVER allow any cryptocurrency or stablecoin to compete with their own currency. I long warned that government was merely tolerating these alternative currencies in the past as they posed no real threat. But now the government needs the ability to tax everything to support its perpetual spending. Every digital transaction is traceable. Every digital currency is controllable—the ultimate power grab.

 

One of Donald Trump’s main campaign promises was the prevention of CBDC. The headlines are enraged over his failure to release the Epstein files, but the GENUIS Act is a far deeper betrayal of the American people that has the ability to usher in a new monetary system.

 

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (July 17, 2025)  - While the World Was Distracted by Epstein. 

 

See also: 

 Ellen Brown (July 30, 2025)  - The GENIUS Act and the National Bank Acts of 1863-64: Taking a Cue from Lincoln.

! Martin Armstrong (July 21, 2025)  - CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act and the CLARITY Act. !

Martin Armstrong (July 21, 2025)  - The GENIUS Act & Stable Coins – A Repeat of 1863? Debt Crisis?

 

了解你的敌人
Know your Enemies. 

Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 

 

Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week

cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.

 

A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 

 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

The relative performance of Ethereum versus Bitcoin will likely be better in the next few years.

 

Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.

 

ETH’s dominant 3-year cycle enters an up-phase from late 2025 to mid-2027, while BTC’s 4-year cycle remains in decline until early 2027. This out-of-phase alignment supports ETH outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025) - Bitcoin's Next Move (2025-2028): Cycle and Elliott Wave Analysis. (video) 

Branimir Vojcic (May 21, 2025)  - Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Which Crypto Will Dominate? (video) 

 

Altcoin Season Index: It is not Altcoin Season!
 

Bitcoin's Seasonal Trend.

 

 

Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.

 

Hurst Cycle Analysis for Bitcoin by David Hickson, July 14, 2025.

Who Owns Bitcoin

Bitcoin Bubble │ Re-Emerging Asian Fever

Source: CryptoCompare BTC/USD Index

Continuing its stellar rise, and adding more than 30% to its value in just a week, on May 25 (Thu) one Bitcoin was worth USD 2,768.32, way over twice as much as one ounce of gold. After crashing more than USD 500 from its intraday highs in less then 9 hours (-18.6%), Bitcoin has bounced back USD 300 off its intraday lows extending gains into what is likely to be another frenetic Asian session. While there are numerous drivers of the recent action, 'scaling' and 'asian fever' are the greatest factors with Japanese and Korean premia exploding.


Bitcoin has risen 170% over the last three months to reach a capitalisation of USD 40 billion according to the CryptoCompare BTC/USD Index, Ethereum too has seen its market capitalisation jump 330% in the past three months to reach USD 20bn according to the CryptoCompare BTC/ETH Index. It is Japan, Korea and Asian interest that is causing the price to rise and dragging up Western prices on the back of regulatory moves as well as scaling. This is the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies:  

Source: CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations

To date that has mostly meant Bitcoin, but over the last two months Bitcoin’s share of cryptocurrency capitalization has actually plummeted to less than 50%, thanks to the sharp rise of Ethereum and Ripple in particular: 

Source: CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations

This news is the latest bit of good news for the Bitcoin: 

• At the beginning of April, Japan announced Bitcoin had become a legal payment method in the country. 
• Additionally, Ulmart, Russia's largest online retailer, said it would begin accepting Bitcoin even though Russia had said it wouldn't explore the cryptocurrency until 2018. 
• The gains also seem to be boosted by speculation the US Securities and Exchange Commission could overturn its ruling on the Winklevoss twins' Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.  
• And most recently, Fidelity's CEO Abigail Johnson lending some credibility to the crypto-currency, explaning how her firm was mining Bitcoin, and accepting payments in the virtual currency. 
• And finally, as a reminder, it appears Bitcoin is one of the only (un-rigged) assets in the world that is reflective of global policy and geopolitical uncertainty.