Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 

 

Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week

cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.

 

A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 

 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

The relative performance of Ethereum versus Bitcoin will likely be better in the next few years.

 

Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.

 

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025) - Bitcoin's Next Move (2025-2028): Cycle and Elliott Wave Analysis. (video) 

Branimir Vojcic (May 21, 2025)  - Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Which Crypto Will Dominate? (video) 

 

 

Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.

Hurst Cycle Analysis for Bitcoin by David Hickson, July 14, 2025.

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.

 

The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 11, 2025)  - July Monthly Options Expiration Week – NASDAQ Down 7 Straight.  

 

Positive Seasonality for Nasdaq (1990-2024) ends this week. SPX is similar.

 

Detrended Seasonality for S&P 500 (1990-2024). 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Forecast Update. 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 2025  - 1965 Analogue Update.

 

 Nominal 20-Day Hurst Cycle in the S&P 500.

 

See also:

Krasi (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

Branimir Vojcic (July 5, 2025)  - The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500.
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.

The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index is at about a level which in the past resulted in corrections.

 

 BraVoCycles Newsletter, Juli 5, 2025.

 

The NAAIM Exposure Index, compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, measures the average equity exposure of its member firms, reflecting their sentiment toward US equity markets. It ranges from -200% (fully leveraged short) to +200% (fully leveraged long), with 0% indicating a neutral stance (cash or hedged). As a contrarian indicator for swing trading, it’s often used to gauge market sentiment extremes, with the assumption that overly bullish or bearish positioning by active managers signals potential market reversals. 

 

However, its limitations—such as limited predictive power, small sample size, manager variability, and volatility—mean it’s not a standalone solution. While it can enhance market analysis, traders should approach it cautiously, recognizing that other indicators like the VIX may offer stronger contrarian signals for profitable swing trading.
 

Fear & Greed Index closed at 78 = Extreme Greed on July 3, 2025.
 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.48 on July 3, 2025.

 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio vs S&P 500, July 3, 2025.

 

Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.38 on July 3, 2025. 

 

See also:

SubuTrade (July 07, 2025)  - All-time highs and Golden Crosses  - Pullback followed by a golden summer?
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.  

The S&P 500 Has Just Triggered a Death Cross | Guilherme Tavares

On April 14th, the S&P 500 triggered a 'death cross.' This occurs when its 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, historically signaling potential declines, as seen in March 2022, though not always predictive of major downturns.

» That's it folks. Place your bets. «

Guilherme Tavares, April 17, 2025.

However, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio (P/E Ratio CAPE), exceeding two standard deviations above its long-term trend, suggests overvaluation, aligning with past market peaks in November 1929, October 2000, and March 2022. Previous instances of this combined signal preceded significant longer term market corrections.

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, is calculated by dividing 

the current price of the S&P 500 by the 10-year moving average of its inflation-adjusted earnings.

The March 2022 and the April 2025 death crosses in the S&P 500 (daily bars).

S&P 500 Forward Returns when there is a 'Death Cross' (1953-2022).

» Should we care? Yes, we should. The forward-looking data isn't the best going out 6 months (red box). «

Grant Hawkridge, April 7, 2025.

The above table lists death cross events in the S&P 500 from 1953 to 2022, and provides forward returns over various time horizons (6 days, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) after each event:

• Short-term returns (6 days) are volatile, with 11 of 18 instances showing negative returns. The average loss is small, suggesting the immediate impact of a death cross is inconsistent. For example, the +8.63% gain in 1962 contrasts with the -11.51% loss in 1978, indicating no clear directional bias in the very short term.
• One-month returns lean bearish, with 13 of 18 instances negative. The worst case (-12.75% in 1929) aligns with the Great Depression’s onset, while the best case (+8.66% in 1978) shows occasional rebounds. The negative average suggests a death cross often precedes short-term weakness, though not always severe.
• Three-month returns are more consistently negative, with 14 of 18 instances showing losses. The -22.13% drop in 1929 reflects extreme market stress, while the +14.91% gain in 1962 is an outlier. The stronger negative average (-3.16%) indicates that death crosses often signal broader market declines over a few months.
• The six-month period shows the most pronounced bearish tendency, with 14 of 18 instances negative. The -35.97% loss in 1929 is the worst, tied to the Great Crash, while the +28.21% gain in 2020 reflects the rapid recovery post-COVID crash. The -4.81% average loss, emphasized in the table, suggests a death cross is a stronger bearish signal over this horizon, though exceptions exist.
• One-year returns are mixed, with 10 of 18 instances positive. The +64.41% gain in 2020 is the highest, driven by post-COVID stimulus, while the -44.95% loss in 1929 is the lowest. The positive average (+1.97%) suggests that, over a year, the market often recovers or stabilizes after a death cross, reducing its long-term predictive power.

NDX's powerful 3.5-year cycle suggests the bigger trend should

be down into mid 2026. Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

3 dominant cycles on NDX daily chart say up into late May. 

Branimir Vojcic, April 17, 2025.

Composite of the S&P 1965, 1998, and 2018 analogues (pink line), Namzes, April 18, 2025.

S&P 1998 vs 2025 Analogue (correlation = 96.6%; Lag = 9,695 days = 26.54 years),

Namzes, April 18, 2025.

See also:

Guilherme Tavares (April 14, 2025) - What Follows a 9%+ S&P 500 Day Below the 200-DMA.

Namzes (April 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation.

Moore Research (April 10, 2025) - DJIA 1926 vs 2025 Analogue = 97% Correlation.

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025)  - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

Subu Trade (April 18, 2025)  - Markets Report: is the worst over for stocks? We're in Phase 3 of the bottoming process.

Possible 2025-1981 Analogue for the S&P | Tom McClellan & Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in the presidential election. Wall Street celebrated Reagan's victory, expecting him to be a transformative leader capable of resolving the nation’s problems. However, despite Reagan's eventual success, the first two years of his presidency were challenging for stock investors.

 Upper chart: S&P 500 vs shifted 1978-81 pattern.
Lower chart: S&P 500 vs daily spectrum cycle analysis composite.

Do not compare shapes; only focus on market turning points, which occur on very similar dates.

 

Whether 2025 will follow a pattern similar to 1981 remains a topic of ongoing analysis. For now, attention is focused on the sharp market dip triggered by the December 18, 2024 FOMC meeting. The Fed announced a 0.25% rate cut, as expected, but tempered expectations for additional rate cuts in 2025, leading to a wave of sell-offs. This recent dip mirrors a similar decline that bottomed on December 11, 1980.

The difficulties of a transformative presidency are evident, as Reagan faced challenges in implementing his policies. Similar obstacles may arise for Trump, and even if his efforts succeed, there is a risk that investors could be overestimating their potential impact—much like the overoptimism seen in 1980.

Reference:
Tom McClellan (December 20, 2024) - The December Dip That Was A Week Late.

 Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.
Tom McClellan (November 14, 2024) - Post-Election Celebrations We Have Seen Before.

Branimir Vojcic on X - December 20, 2024.

Branimir Vojcic (December 20, 2024) - Did the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Top?