Margin Debt Hits Record Then Drops: Classic Late-Cycle Sign | Branimir Vojcic

Latest FINRA data published in mid-August show that US margin debt fell to $1.42T in July 2026 after reaching a record $1.50T in June, marking the first decline following a sustained period of increases.

The chart tracks US margin debt versus the S&P 500 from 1997–2026, highlighting historical peaks in leverage that preceded S&P 500 tops by 0–4 months (median around 3 months). That places September–October toward the later end of the historical window for a S&P 500 decline.

Gold Has Bottomed? What the Cycles Say | Branimir Vojcic

Shorter-term cycles indicate that Gold has formed an interim bottom. 

 

 

The composite line of the five dominant short- and medium-to-longer-term cycles (32, 79, 118, 194 and 1,181 trading days or 46.4, 114.5, 171 and 281 calendar days) projects an upcoming medium-term peak on September 11 (Fri), followed by the next trough on November 16 (Mon). 

However, the composite line of the two dominant long-term cycles (1,181 trading days or 4.687 years and 1,832 trading days or 7.27 years) suggests that Gold's correction will continue through late October 2028, followed by a rally extending into the end of November 2030.  

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (August 11, 2026) - Has Gold Bottomed? (video)

 

The average of the three most similar historical Gold spikes suggests that this rally is

nearing a local top, followed by an undercut/retest of the previous lows in the fall.

S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 cycle composite of the dominant 339, 185, 124, and 79-day cycles forecasts a reversal by late March. This move is expected to manifest as a "dead cat bounce," peaking near 6,500 in late May before a projected decline into October.

 

 

Bill Sarubbi notes that post-OPEX weeks in March are traditionally bearish, projecting a low for the S&P 500 and US stocks between March 26 (Thu) and April 7 (Tue).

 

Sarubbi's S&P 500 cycle composite forecast for 2026 started at a January peak, followed by a choppy decline through June, punctuated by a brief April recovery. After a late-summer bounce, the market hits its annual low in late September/early October. The year concludes with a sharp rally through December, carrying bullish momentum into 2027. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Cycles Update.

Bill Sarubbi (March 20, 2026) - Post-OPEX weeks in March.

 

The best timed trade of 2026.

Crude Oil Long-Term Cycles Signal 2026 and 2028 Peaks Near $225–235

Branimir Vojcic identifies four dominant weekly cycles (103, 144, 181, and 289 weeks) in crude oil futures (CL), projecting major peaks in October 2026 and June 2028, and troughs in July 2027 and October 2029 aligning with Martin Armstrong’s warning of prices surging into 2028 due to geopolitical risks. 

 

The dominant 174 day cycle on the daily CL chart shows a cycle trough at the end of June.

 

 Four dominant weekly cycles indicate CL peaks in October 2026

and June 2028, with troughs expected in July 2027 and October 2029.

 

 

Yearly timing arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

Martin Armstrong’s cycle-based forecast for NY crude oil futures shows multiple volatility and panic cycle convergences in 2028 that could drive prices to $200–240 per barrel from current levels around $90. Drawing from his Socrates AI and Economic Confidence Model, which identify 8.6-year global turning points, Armstrong's timing array chart above overlays empirical, long-term, and direction-change cycles to pinpoint heightened risk periods for oil disruptions. 

 

» Wars rarely end on political will alone, and this conflict is constrained by a dense web
of strategic, economic and security pressures that neither side can easily escape. «

Socrates Update: Oil $225 to $235 into 2028.

 

Amid the ongoing US–Israeli war with Iran, which has already reduced regional output by over 6 million barrels per day and spiked prices by 9%, Armstrong’s prediction aligns with analysts’ upward revisions for sustained supply risks.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - Crude Oil (CL) Long-Term Cycles.
Martin Armstrong (March 22, 2026) - Yearly Timing Arrays for NY Crude Oil Futures.

VIX Cycles: Forecasting Volatility Peaks Through 2032 | Branimir Vojcic

Seasonality within the Standard & Poor’s 500 Volatility Index (VIX) indicates that volatility typically rises toward the spring, declines during the summer months, and ascends once more into October (see chart below). 

 

Vix Seasonality.

This cyclical behavior usually runs inverse to the stock market. Crucially, this 6-month cycle aligns almost perfectly with the classic VIX seasonal pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of the next move. Chart 1 illustrates the six-month cycle that dominates the daily timeframe, aligning closely with established VIX seasonality patterns.

Chart 1: VIX - 6-Month Cycle.

Shifting our focus to longer-duration significant cycles, we examine the two-year and 3.5-year cycles (Chart 2). The latter is formally recognized as the Kitchin cycle and is observable across numerous financial markets. Although these two powerful cycles are frequently out of phase, they generally succeed in capturing significant spikes within the VIX. By combining them (Chart 3), we yield a composite cycle signal; we observe that these two cycles capture the majority of the VIX's historical movements, notwithstanding a notable failure in 2005.

 

Chart 2: VIX - 2-Year and 3.5-Year Cycles.

 

Chart 3: VIX - Composite of 2-Year and 3.5-Year Cycles.

Naturally, various other cycles—both of shorter and longer durations—simultaneously influence price action. On the monthly VIX chart, the six-year and ten-year cycles are the dominant forces, beautifully capturing multi-year fluctuations (Chart 4). It is important to note that both of these cycles reached troughs in 2005, which explains why the shorter-term cycles were unable to produce a volatility spike during that period. 

 Chart 4: VIX - 6-Year and 10-Year Cycles.

 

The integration of these two cycles further underscores their critical importance for long-term VIX trajectories. Currently, the composite cycle signal forecasts a multi-year cyclical peak in 2032, a period which may correspond to a significant low in the stock market. Finally, by incorporating the two-year and 3.5-year cycles, we add essential granularity to the composite of these very long-term cycles (Chart 5).
 

Chart 5: VIX - Composite of 6-Year and 10-Year Cycles.

 

The next significant cycle peak and trough are estimated to occur in November of 2026 and throughout 2027, respectively. Following that inflection point, the VIX will generally maintain an upside bias toward 2032. Given that stock market movements are typically inversely correlated with those of the VIX, does this imply that the equity market will decline through October 2026, rally in 2027, and subsequently enter a secular bear market until the early 2030s?

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (February 16, 2026) - What Message is Volatility (VIX) Sending? Part 1 & Part 2. (videos)

 

See also:

Dylan O'Neill (March 1, 2026) - VIX: Wall Street's Exact Formula to Measure Fear In the Markets. (video)

November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 30, 2025) - November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500.

 

Post-Election Year most bullish in 4-Year Presidential Cycle since 1985.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 

 

S&P 500: We are now in the final phase of this rally. 

 

SPX ES-minis: Down (= 80D peak?).

  

 Gold: 80-day cycle trough zone. Up Reversal?

 

Bitcoin: Heading towards the next 80-day cycle trough. Down.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles | Branimir Vojcic

Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver. They have had stellar moves, but which one is really set to shine next? 

Gold is about to take the lead over Silver in the coming 3 months, based on the powerful 36-week cycle. But here’s the catch: focusing on just one cycle can sometimes leave you blindsided. Multiple cycles sometimes tell a different story.

Gold may be forming a blow-off top, but it still holds some near-term potential. Long-term Hurst cycle analysis predicts a multi-year cycle trough around 2030.

Silver — often referred to as "poor man's gold" — has been on the rise, but long-term Hurst cycles suggest a multi-year trough in late 2029, give or take.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Everyone’s talking about Gold and Silver.

Branimir Vojcic (September 24, 2025) - Gold and Silver Cycles: Exploring Near-Term Potential and Long-Term Troughs. (video)

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below shows 20-week and 40-week cycle price projections for  S&P 500. Getting to the 7,200 area +/- may satisfy both targets. The black trendline resistance will get into the 40-week cycle target range late this year.

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 (daily bars) 7,200 +/-.

 

Cycle price projections are fully satisfied about 70% of the time. The probability of approaching them without fully satisfying them is considerably higher. However, this is not the time to be complacent as the stock market is most overvalued in more than 100 years.

Nasdaq-100 Index (weekly bars) - Long-Term Elliott Wave Count, and Blow-Off Top Targets.

 

The green rectangles depict blowoff top targets for Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) for 20-week and 40-week cycles. The black count is preferred in which Primary wave 5, circle-5, will take the form of an ending diagonal, ideally into the green targets. The blue count is an alternative ending diagonal. In this count, NDX is now completing wave B of (4) with C expected in 2026 and (5) in late 2027 or early 2028.

The completion of circle-5 this year or in 2027/28 will mark the top of cycle degree wave V and super-cycle degree (III). Super-cycle (IV) can take about 15-20 years. Cycle a is expected in the early 2030s, then a bounce in cycle b, and then cycle c of (IV) in about mid-2040s. A typical retracement for (IV) is in the range of IV, i.e., the fourth wave of one lesser degree. That’s the long-term picture. The focus in the next twelve months will be on nailing the pending top and a cycle trough expected in mid-2026, +/-, which should be black circle-A or blue (4).

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (September 14, 2025) - Bravocycles Newsletter: Market Made New Highs – Will Bitcoin Follow?

 

XLF (2007-2041) is the ticker symbol for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-

traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the financial sector within the S&P 500.

 

Upside bias likely holds into FOMC Meeting on September 17 (Wed).

Rally still has room toward 6,700 (log 61.8%), even 6,800 (100% W1) in blow-off top scenario.

40-week cycle peak in late September to early October will mark a long-term market top.

TPR, August 25, 2025.

See also:

Krasi (September 13, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Update and Long-Term View. 

Trigger Trades (September 13, 2025) - Blow-Off Top = Final Wave Before Correction. 

 Jeff Hirsch (September 9, 2025) - September Seasonality of US Stock Indices.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

Branimir Vojcic (August 5, 2025) - S&P 500 20-Week Hurst Cycle Support Around 6,000. 

Branimir Vojcic (2025) - Price Projections Using J.M. Hurst's FLD.
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

TPR (2025) - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle.

Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Turning Points for 2025-2026 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below represents a dual Hurst cycle analysis of troughs and peaks in the 4-hour chart for Ethereum (ETHUSD). The orange line is the cycles composite, based on current estimates of periods, phases, and amplitudes.

Ethereum (4-hour bars) and Cycle Composite (orange line).

 

■ Next 40-week cycle peak (expected) late August or early September 2025.
■ Next 40-week cycle trough late 2025 or early 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle peak in May 2026.
■ Next 18-month cycle trough September or October 2026.
■ Ethereum's bullish outlook from 2025 to 2028 predicts significant gains relative to Bitcoin.

Do not correlate price with the amplitudes of the cycle composite. Instead, use peaks and troughs as estimates of price turning points. 

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (August 11, 2025)  - Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Key Turning Points for 2025-2026. (video)

Long-term Spectrum Cycle Composite for ETH.

 

Ethereum Detrended Seasonality, 2020-2025.

 

Ethereum's 2016–2024 returns show Q1–Q2 strength (+20% avg monthly, May +36.48%, 55.56% positive), summer dips (Jun -5.84%, Sep -7.24%, 44.44% positive), and Q4 gains (+7.4% avg, 55–77% positive). Volatility: abs avg 20–30%, medians 4–5%.

Expectations for Remainder 2025 (Sep–Dec) and Q1-Q2 2026: Sep likely dips (-7.24%, 44% positive); Oct–Dec rebounds (+6–8%, 55–77% positive), possibly amplified by year-end sentiment. 2025 YTD momentum (+43.57% May, +41.22% Jul, +24.11% Aug) may soften Sep, but volatility (13–19% abs avg) warrants caution. Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar) rally (+17% avg, 66–78% positive); Q2 (Apr–Jun) strength Apr–May (+29% avg, 56–67% positive) then Jun dip (-5.84%, 44% positive), with ~+20% monthly early-year upside but high vol (20–30% abs avg).

 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (July 14, 2025)  - Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+.
Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025)  - Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets.

Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets | Philip Hopf

After price had risen significantly in recent weeks, Ethereum reached new interim highs at USD 4,070 on August 8, but may now be approaching a medium-term correction. 

 

Ethereum (weekly bars): Major resistance zone around USD 4,107.

The stablecoin market volume stood at USD 250 billion on July 23 and is currently growing by roughly USD 5 billion per week. It has already reached approximately USD 280.8 billion. Over 50% of all stablecoins operate on the Ethereum blockchain – a factor seen as clearly positive for Ethereum. Capital flows show significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks. A notable divergence is visible between retail investors and large investors (institutions/whales):

ETH (black line) Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k (blue line) sharply rising:

The whales are eating Ethereum alive.

 

■ Retail investors have been steadily reducing their Ethereum holdings for months, even during recent price gains.

■ Large investors, on the other hand, have been accumulating heavily. 

■ Number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH – currently worth around USD 40 million each – has risen sharply.

 

This is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal: “smart money” is buying while “dumb money” is selling.

 

Short-term price may reach USD 4,200–4,300, followed by a quick pullback.

 

From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone around USD 4,107 that has repeatedly triggered sharp corrections in the past. In the short term, price could reach this area or slightly exceed it (up to about USD 4,200–4,300). A breakout above this level might attract momentum traders, potentially followed by a quick pullback.

The expected correction could, depending on the exact high, amount to USD 1,000–1,300, bringing the price down to the USD 3,000 range or lower. This phase is viewed as a buying opportunity.

 

A correction down to around USD 3,000 should be followed by a medium-term
rise to USD 5,500–6,500 and long-term targets of USD 12,000–14,000.

In the medium term, after the correction, another upward move is anticipated, with targets between USD 5,500 and 6,500. In the long term price regions of USD 12,000–14,000 are considered possible. Exact timing cannot be derived from Elliott Wave analysis, as price movements and patterns can vary greatly in duration.

Reference:

Philip Hopf (August 8, 2025) - Ethereum: The Whales are Eating the Market Alive! (video)

 

ETH's 3-year cycle rises late 2025–mid-2027 as BTC’s 4-year cycle declines until early 2027, 

favoring ETH’s outperformance vs. BTC through ~2028.

S&P 500 20-Week Hurst Cycle Support Around 6,000 | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500, having bounced off support, is projected by Hurst Cycle Analysis to reverse near its current level and decline into a 20-week cycle low around the third week of August, likely finding support around 6,000 (+/- 50) at the 20-week Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). 

April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 40-week cycle (= 9-month cycle) troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.

The Hurst Cycle Composite line for the Nasdaq 100 4-hour chart (orange) predicts a mid-August trough, a peak around late September 2025, and a subsequent decline.

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (August 4, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycle Analysis: 20-week cycle low in the third week of August.

 

See also:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week.
David Hickson (July 28, 2025) - S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak. 

Price Projections Using J.M. Hurst's FLD | Branimir Vojcic

Using Bitcoin as an example, I will explain the cycle-based price projection method described by J.M. Hurst. In cycle literature, this method is referred to as price projections using the Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). [The FLD is essentially a displaced moving average, acting as a leading indicator of price interaction with the cycle’s midpoint and as a dynamic support or resistance level.]

 

 

Definitions:
Cycle period = time interval between cycle troughs 

FLD = Forward Line of Demarcation = price shifted by half the cycle period
Cyan line = median of the price bar
TD = trading day
CD = calendar day

 

In the Bitcoin example, the FLD band is constructed by offsetting the median price (High Price + Low Price / 2) by TD = 7 and TD = 8, which correspond to CD = 9 and CD = 10 for the nominal 20-day cycle, presumed to vary between 19 and 20 CDs.

  

■ H1 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the left FLD band boundary and the intersection point.

■ H2 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the right FLD band boundary and the intersection point.

■ The lower level of the target range is determined by adding H1 to the left FLD boundary intersection point. The upper level of the target range is determined by adding H2 to the right FLD boundary intersection point.

The price targets derived from this method are met with an average probability of 0.7 (i.e., 70% of the time), though they may vary by a few percentage points depending on the cycle length and the financial instrument involved. If one allows for the price to approach—rather than fully reach—the target range, the probability of success increases significantly.

In uptrends, upward targets are reached with a higher probability, while downward targets are less likely to be met. Conversely, in downtrends, downward targets are more probable, and upward targets less so. If a target is not reached, it may indicate a pending price reversal due to one or more longer cycles exerting pressure in the opposite direction.

For cycle periods, one may use Hurst’s nominal cycle periods (see table above) or estimated actual cycle periods, if appropriate software is available. In either case, some tolerance (+/-) around the estimated cycle lengths should be considered.

This remarkably powerful method is difficult to surpass by any other I have encountered. It produces projection targets similar to those obtained using converged Centered Moving Averages (CMA) and focal point-based projections—a logical outcome, since all are based on cycles and their inherent properties.

I hope this explanation demystifies price targets. A combination of price and time targets for turning points is a powerful tool—it helps one stay in the trend as long as possible while anticipating both the price and timing of reversals.

Reference:
Branimir Vojcic (2024)  - Price Projections Using FLDs – How to Read Charts.

 

See also:

Christopher Grafton (2022)  - Using FLDs to Forecast Market Turning Points and Trends.

Christopher Grafton (2011)  - Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis. 

TPR (2025)  - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.