S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 Analogue = 89% Correlation | Namzes

S&P 500 (daily chart, 89.6% correlation as of April 13, 2025. Lag = 21,832 days = 59.77 years).

Namzes, April 16, 2025.

S&P 500 1965 vs 2025 [July 8, 1965 vs April 16, 2025 (Wed)  = 21,832 days = 59.77 years].

See also:

Moore Research (April 10, 2025) - Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 1926 vs 2025 = 97% Correlation.

Yuriy Matso (April 8, 2025) - S&P 500 1969 vs 2025.

 David Hickson (April 7, 2025) - Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ.
Martin Armstrong (April 7, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

On April 16, 2025, the DeMark 9-13 Sequential count is at 9-12, hinting at a 

potential trend exhaustion in S&P 500 futures and a reversal on April 17.

Chris Ciovacco, April 16, 2025.

The VIX cycle from > 50 to < 30 is on track to trigger today. A bear killer.

Jason Goepfert, April 15, 2025.

DJIA 1926 vs 2025 Analogue = 97% Correlation | Moore Research

Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily charts, April 1924-June 1926 vs Current)
Correlation: 97% as of April 8, 2025.

Reference:
Moore Research, April 9, 2025.

 

See also:

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'. 

 David Hickson (April 7, 2025) - Hurst Time-Price Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 & NASDAQ.
Martin Armstrong (April 7, 2025) - DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

Jeff Hirsch (April 1, 2025) - April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.

Possible 2025-1981 Analogue for the S&P | Tom McClellan & Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in the presidential election. Wall Street celebrated Reagan's victory, expecting him to be a transformative leader capable of resolving the nation’s problems. However, despite Reagan's eventual success, the first two years of his presidency were challenging for stock investors.

 Upper chart: S&P 500 vs shifted 1978-81 pattern.
Lower chart: S&P 500 vs daily spectrum cycle analysis composite.

Do not compare shapes; only focus on market turning points, which occur on very similar dates.

 

Whether 2025 will follow a pattern similar to 1981 remains a topic of ongoing analysis. For now, attention is focused on the sharp market dip triggered by the December 18, 2024 FOMC meeting. The Fed announced a 0.25% rate cut, as expected, but tempered expectations for additional rate cuts in 2025, leading to a wave of sell-offs. This recent dip mirrors a similar decline that bottomed on December 11, 1980.

The difficulties of a transformative presidency are evident, as Reagan faced challenges in implementing his policies. Similar obstacles may arise for Trump, and even if his efforts succeed, there is a risk that investors could be overestimating their potential impact—much like the overoptimism seen in 1980.

Reference:
Tom McClellan (December 20, 2024) - The December Dip That Was A Week Late.

 Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.
Tom McClellan (November 14, 2024) - Post-Election Celebrations We Have Seen Before.

Branimir Vojcic on X - December 20, 2024.

Branimir Vojcic (December 20, 2024) - Did the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Top?

1986-2024 S&P 500 Index Analogue Projection into Early December

On a day to day basis the analog between S&P 500 closing prices of 1986 and 2024 had a 95% positive correlation over the past 180 trading days, which is the period since the beginning of 2024. Of course, only time will tell whether this correlation continues. With that in mind, the analog projects the upcoming swing highs and lows for the month of October to be more or less in line with Jeff Hirsch's average seasonal chart for October in election years: From the latest all-time high of September 26, the next swing low is projected to occur on October 9 (Wed), followed by a high on October 18 (Fri), and a potentially lower low around October 23-25 (Wed-Fri). Then a rally is expected to occur into November 29 (Fri). Note that in this context, direction is more important than price levels. The average S&P 500 return during October was slightly positive between 1950 and 2023, with 45 up years and 29 down years, and an average return of 0.75%.

Seth Golden is extremely optimistic about 2025: "From September 2023 to September 2024, the S&P 500 has been up greater than 30%. Historically, when the S&P 500 >25% over the trailing 12 months or more into a rate cut, stocks have NEVER been lower a year later and up close to +20% on average. There is no soft landing if there is no landing at all in 2025, and by all accounts the setup is clear!"  

 

A potential fly in the ointment for all of the above bullish outlook is Sergey Tarassov's long-term cycle analysis. He suggested that the 41-month Kitchin Cycle in US stocks would peak between June and October 2024, and be followed by a decline into December 2025-January 2026.  

 

That said, from a narrower medium-term Hurst cycle perspective, August 5 marked the low of a 40-week cycle. The market is now trending upward toward the next 40 week cycle's peak, and the last quarter of 2024 may very well conclude with new all-time highs.