Showing posts with label US Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Stocks. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices | Jack Gillen

According to Jack Gillen in "AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange" (2002), the transit of the Sun through 13°–22° Cancer is one of only two Sun-related market statistics that reached his highest reliability category, defined as the 70–100% accuracy group: 
"There are only two statistics related to the Sun falling into the group of the 70–100 percent accuracy. They were both activated in the United States chart on July 4, 1776, and the natal Sun is at 13-degrees of Cancer. On July 5th of every year the Sun transits 13-degrees of Cancer. This cycle has an orb of 13–22 degrees of Cancer, and the transit dates would be from July 7–15 each year. The price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher on the 15th than on the 7th..." 
Gillen associated this pattern with the natal chart of the United States, dated July 4, 1776, in which the Sun is positioned at 13° Cancer. Based on his research, the period from July 7 to July 15 each year—when the transiting Sun moves through 13°–22° Cancer—has historically shown a bullish tendency in the stock market. 
 
His rule states that the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on July 15 is expected to be higher than its closing value on July 7. Gillen reported an overall historical accuracy rate of 72.8% across the full sample he analyzed, while the period from 1987 to 2001 produced an even stronger accuracy rate of 86.6%. As a result, he regarded this as one of the most significant Sun-based market indicators in his work, interpreting it as a recurring mid-July bullish pattern linked to the activation of the US Sun degree. About other sensitive degrees of the Sun, he writes (1979):
"The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. 

Jun 29 (Mon) 17:44 = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees = positive = should reach a low and turn up
Jul 04 (Sat) 23:37 = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees = negative = should reach a high and turn down
Jul 08 (Wed) 03:08 = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees = positive
Jul 10 (Fri) 05:28 = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees = negative
Jul 24 (Fri) 21:30 = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees = negative
Jul 29 (Wed) 01:59 = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees = positive
Aug 09 (Sun) 13:46 = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees = negative
[more HERE]
The market will always be influenced by the Sun pattern, and it will happen year after year. You will find from January to the last two weeks in July the market prices will be upwards, and in the latter part of the year, after the influence of Leo, the market will be down in price. This is the average trend that will always occur. This affects volume as well as price itself."

The solar cycle is a highly reliable annual cycle based on the Sun's direct, unvarying motion, allowing market turning points and seasonal patterns to be tracked to the exact day year after year. Acting as a market almanac of observed price behaviors, this cycle maps market responses to the Sun's passage through the zodiac signs, providing investors with a predictable annual road map. 

 
Key Turning Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA, 1885-2015.
(Pesavento & Smoleny, 2015) 
 
Because the United States was founded on July 4, 1776, under the cardinal sign of Cancer, American financial markets are also exceptionally sensitive to planets transiting cardinal points or forming key harmonic angles to them. Consequently, the market consistently establishes major lows as the Sun enters the four cardinal signs: Aries, Cancer, Libra, and Capricorn (blue thick verticals in the chart above: March 20–21, June 20–21, September 22–23, December 21–22). Chronologically, the annual cycle of the Sun versus the DJIA unfolds through these cardinal alignments and their corresponding market seasonals:
■  January / Capricorn (Opposition): The Sun’s opposition in Capricorn marks an extreme bottom point, which immediately triggers a strong January Effect (bullish December 20 to January 7) rally.
■  March / Aries (Square): The Sun enters Aries, creating the first challenging square to the US natal sign, often coinciding with the volatile Ides of March (bearish February 2 to March 28).
■  April: As the Sun advances, market momentum shifts into the April Earnings Rally (bullish March 28 to April 16).
■  May: This upward momentum stalls, prompting the classic "Sell in May and Go Away" (bearish April 16 to June 26) defensive strategy.
■  June/July / Cancer (Conjunction): The Sun’s conjunction in Cancer creates a distinct market bottom that directly sets the stage for the subsequent Summer Rally (bullish June 26 to September 4).
■  October/November / Libra (Square): The Sun enters Libra, forming a second, highly disruptive square to the US sign; these combined October–November squares present the market’s greatest systemic challenges, historically triggering the Fall Crash Cycle (bearish September 4 to October 27) and major market meltdowns.
■  December: Following the autumn lows, the cycle concludes as the market recovers into the year-end Santa Claus Rally (bullish October 27 to December 8), resetting the annual pattern.

 Seasonal Dates of the Solar Cycle vs. the DJIA.
 

Moon from Virgo to Pisces = Go Long | Moon from Pisces to Virgo = Go Short
His lunar statistics were detailed primarily in "AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange" (2002), with related discussion in the revised "The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange" (2009). He analyzed historical NYSE/DJIA data against Moon transits, assigning reliability percentages. Individual Moon signs rarely reach his high-confidence threshold (70–100% accuracy), but specific patterns and directional cycles do. 
"There is a Moon statistic that falls into the 70–100 percent group but is closer to the 70 percent group, and that’s the Moon’s transit from Virgo to Pisces. Therefore, if you are looking to go long with a stock it’s best to start during this period. [...] If you have a stock you want to short, your best chance would be from the sign of Pisces to Virgo." 
On average, the Moon spends 2.46 days transiting through each zodiac sign.
Times and Dates for New York (ET).
 
 Reference:
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Tuesday, June 2, 2026

S&P 500 Forecast for June 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Primary forecast pattern for June.
 
The forecast focuses on market direction and timing rather than magnitude of price change. 
 
Inverse pattern for June, which is currently not favored.  
 
How the May 2026 forecast played out. 
 
Reference:
 
[check for updates]  
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Tuesday, May 26, 2026

NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting | Larry Williams

Let's start with the three core market tools—often misunderstood and rarely used together effectively: 
 
■ Fundamentals determine value: Markets ultimately move for fundamental reasons, and value is rewarded over
    time—not necessarily today, this month, or even this year. A value-driven framework is indispensable. 
■ Technicals define the present: They reveal current market conditions—trend, momentum, overbought or
    oversold states.  
■ Cycles provide the edge: They project direction and timing, identifying when opportunities are most likely to
    emerge.

The process is straightforward: What has value? Where are we now? Where are we going? You need all three—none is sufficient on its own. We begin with cycles, specifically the NASDAQ, which has exhibited structural strength since 2009.

Bullish NASDAQ Cycle Analysis
Market cycles consist of recurring lows, rallies, and declines, but not all waves carry equal weight. Some phases are structurally stronger—and we are currently in one.
 
NASDAQ: In a dominant bullish cycle wave with typical June strength → August pause → higher continuation;
bias remains up, buy pullbacks.
 
A comparable wave (3.5-Year, 41-Month, or Kitchin Cycle) in 2016 produced a sustained rally. The current configuration is similar. Since 2023, the NASDAQ has been in a pronounced bullish cycle. While my primary focus is typically the NASDAQ, recent instability in the Dow has increased its relative importance this year. Current cycle positioning suggests the early stages of another strong upward phase—historically associated with meaningful advances.

NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time.
 
Why the NASDAQ Could Rally Again: Historically, this cycle turns higher in June roughly 90% of the time, experiences a modest pullback in August, and then continues upward. That pattern implies a constructive setup.

Markets do not require declines to rally. They often consolidate sideways before advancing—a behavior repeatedly observed. While many investors wait for pullbacks, the absence of weakness does not negate bullish conditions. My 2026 forecast anticipated higher prices and emphasized buying pullbacks—not waiting for a breakdown that may never materialize.

Dow Jones "Explosive Wave" Pattern 
The Dow is forming a recurring "explosive wave" structure: consolidation followed by a sharp advance. This sequence—sideways movement transitioning into a rapid rally—has repeated multiple times. 
 
DJIA: Sideways consolidation within "explosive wave" structure likely resolving into sharp upside move late June–August.
 
The current phase is a consolidation with a bullish bias. Historically, such setups resolve into strong moves, often beginning between late June and August. This pattern is relevant for longer-term positioning.
The expected mid-June low should be understood as a cycle low in the NASDAQ and DJIA—a tactical buying opportunity, not necessarily the absolute price bottom. The broader outlook remains intact: 2026 is a bull market year.

Inflation, as anticipated, has moved higher and remains closely linked to bond market dynamics. The longer-term trajectory still points toward declining interest rates into the early 2030s. This brings us to bonds.

Bond Market Setup & Seasonality
Bond seasonality is currently in a bullish phase, historically associated with rallies. Cycle analysis aligns with this timing, reinforcing the setup. The Money Flow Index indicates institutional accumulation—an early and important signal.
 
Bonds: Seasonal + cycle low with rising institutional accumulation signals an emerging rally; 
near-term dip is a tactical buy entry.

Institutional Positioning in Bonds: Professional money is rotating into bonds. Commitment of Traders data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. Historically, markets tend to advance when large, informed participants accumulate. 
 
COT data shows commercial participants holding their largest long position since 2023. 
 
Combined with a seasonal low, a cycle low, and improving money flow, the evidence points to a high-probability buying zone.
 
Wait for short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend.
 
Bond Market Strategy: On the daily timeframe, bonds are near a seasonal low with capital beginning to flow in. The tactical approach: wait for a short-term pullback, then enter in alignment with the broader cycle and seasonal trend. While the market has already begun to move higher, a near-term retracement would provide a more favorable entry.
Stay the course. There is no bear market. Despite persistent skepticism, the primary trend remains upward. The strategy is unchanged: buy pullbacks, not fear them. We are in a bull market.
Reference:
 
See also: 
 
Kevin Warsh is now Fed Chair, reviving fears that markets "test" new leadership—citing Bernanke (2007–09 crisis), Greenspan (1987 crash), and Volcker (late-1970s inflation). Yet history does not show leadership changes reliably trigger downturns. Context: since 1930, the S&P 500’s average annual drawdown is 16.1% (bearish extreme), its average best rally is 25.9% (bullish extreme), and mean annual return is 8.0%.

Post–Fed leadership changes, S&P 500 performance is generally not bearish: except at the 3-month horizon, advance rates exceed a 60% bullish threshold and average returns are positive. If Eugene Meyer (Great Depression) and Greenspan (1987) are excluded as likely timing outliers, results improve further: all intervals show higher average returns and win rates; at 1 year, the S&P 500 averages +12.7% and is higher 90% of the time.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes

Memorial Day weekend (May 23-25, 2026) has become the unofficial start of summer for many Americans, marking a notable transition in financial markets. In recent years, trading activity typically begins a gradual decline shortly afterward—barring major external events—toward a later summer low. 
 
Over the past 20 years, the Thursday before Memorial Day has delivered the strongest average gains across major indices (DJIA +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.18%, NASDAQ +0.34%, Russell 2000 +0.32%). Friday shows a solid percentage of up days—particularly for the NASDAQ (66.7%, +0.38% average)—but with more mixed overall performance. Wednesday is the weakest, with negative average returns. The dataset includes 2025; both median returns and win rates also tend to favor Thursday in several cases.
Market participants refer to this summertime slowdown as the summer doldrums, characterized by anemic volume and often uninspired, range-bound trading on Wall Street. Seasonal volume patterns since the 1960s for the NYSE and 1970s for the NASDAQ show this typical lull, with daily trading volumes frequently dropping 20-40% from winter peaks, reaching troughs particularly in late July and August as vacations reduce institutional participation.

In the lead-up to the holiday, historical performance presents mixed yet distinctive results. Thursday before Memorial Day has consistently delivered the strongest average gains across the DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 in 21-year analyses. Friday, the last trading day before the long weekend, records a higher proportion of advancing sessions for most major indexes, with the NASDAQ standing out at a 66.7% win rate, an average gain of 0.38%, and nine up closes in the last ten years. That said, this Friday session also tends to feature lackluster, light-volume trading. For the DJIA, results have been essentially neutral over extended periods, with an even split of up and down closes and a modest average decline of approximately 0.05%.
 
 May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years:
Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Following the holiday, market behavior often turns more muted and, in recent decades, weaker. The Tuesday after Memorial Day has shown notable softness, with the DJIA and S&P 500 declining in seven of the last nine observed years, alongside more frequent losses in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Broader post-holiday windows, including the full trading week after Memorial Day, performed robustly from the early 1970s through the mid-1990s but have since weakened considerably, with reduced frequency of positive returns and smaller average gains, especially since the late 1990s and after 2010. An event study of returns spanning three days before to three days after the holiday generally aligns with long-term daily averages, showing no pronounced anomaly.

Beyond the immediate sessions, the broader period from Memorial Day to Labor Day (September 7, 2026) has historically produced net positive, albeit modest, results for the S&P 500. The index has advanced in roughly 70% of periods since the early 1970s, with average gains typically ranging from 1.6% to 2.8%. This summer window fits within the broader “Sell in May and Go Away” tendency, during which overall returns tend to be softer than in the November-to-April period, even as the Memorial Day-to-Labor Day segment itself often contributes positively amid the lighter volumes of the doldrums.
 
 
In midterm-election years such as 2026, these summer patterns can intersect with the broader presidential cycle, which historically features heightened volatility and often subdued returns. Midterm years frequently see notable market lows forming between late July and mid-August, aligning with the depth of the summer doldrums, reduced liquidity, and pre-election political uncertainty. Such periods have at times served as bottoming phases, setting the stage for stronger recoveries later in the year or into the following pre-election period, though outcomes vary with prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions.
 
 
 
 
See also: 
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Thursday, May 7, 2026

Record Systematic Shorts: Profit-Taking Pullback Ahead | Seth Golden

Goldman Sachs' chart, which tracks the rolling one-month change in positioning among systematic traders—primarily rule-based funds, including commodity trading advisors (CTAs), that rely on predefined models and algorithmic signals—points to a potential near-term pullback in US stock indices.
 
Record short positioning of systematic traders in Q1 2026—profit-taking pullback likely.

This segment of systematic traders has emerged as one of the most influential forces in equity markets in recent months. Having established aggressive short positions in spring 2025 and again in 2026, the group reached its longest and most extreme short exposure on record. Such outsized positioning suggests that systematic traders are now poised to take profits, thereby increasing the likelihood of a near-term correction in major US stock indices.
 
By early May 2026, a broad consensus had emerged among Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America that the prevailing buying impulse in US equities had largely exhausted itself. Goldman Sachs specifically highlights that systematic traders (CTAs) remain positioned at sizable long levels—approximately $32–44 billion net in the S&P 500—but are poised to shift toward neutral or modest selling in flat or declining markets. Should key downside thresholds be breached, this could trigger substantial selling pressure exceeding $50 billion. 
 
Nobody wants puts on the Nasdaq: The put/call ratio has collapsed to its lowest
level since 2023. Near-term mean reversion and price consolidation next?

Taken together, these flows indicate that the momentum-driven buying that fueled the recent rebound has become stretched, pointing to a material decline in marginal demand. For individual retail investors, this setup implies an elevated risk of near-term exhaustion or pullback in major indices and technology stocks once systematic support diminishes. While continuation remains possible in a strong uptrend supported by further modest CTA buying, any meaningful stall or breakdown could rapidly amplify selling pressure.
 
Reference: 
 
US equity market breadth is at one of its lowest levels since the 1980s, reaching near-record lows on a long-term chart from 1985–2025. The latest reading sits far below average and one standard deviation below the mean, signaling extreme narrowness despite repeated new highs in major indices. This is driven by heavy capital concentration in a small number of AI, semiconductor, optics, and memory stocks, which are powering index gains while the vast majority of equities significantly lag. 
The S&P 500 just saw the largest call-buying day in history: $2.6T in call volume. Massive call buying forces market makers to hedge by buying stocks, pushing prices higher, triggering more hedging, and fueling a gamma squeeze. It’s powerful on the way up—and vicious on the way down when flows unwind or calls expire. This isn’t fundamentals driving markets anymore. It’s options flow moving the world’s largest index. The question isn’t if it unwinds — it’s when.   

ES (daily candles): Expect a pullback or sideways consolidation toward at least the neutral mean (solid black rising line)—the equilibrium point between the premium (overextended upper red) and discount (overextended lower green) zones. 
NQ (daily candles).
 Today, May 7 (Thu) is the scheduled ideal ITD #5 peak (± 4 CD) in US stocks.
 
Major banks show broad agreement on resilient 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth driven by AI and the economy, but diverge on the index target due to differing views on valuation multiples. Here is a combined comparison table of their latest 2026 forecasts (as of late April 2026): Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are constructive, viewing the price-EPS divergence as a buying opportunity with prices likely to catch up to upward earnings revisions. Bank of America is the most cautious, anticipating further P/E compression despite solid EPS growth.   
See also: 
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Monday, May 4, 2026

Hedge Funds Dump Tech, While Retail Piles Into QQQ | Jason Goepfert

Hedge funds sold US tech stocks at the second-most aggressive pace in a decade (largest net selling since 2021), according to Goldman Sachs Prime Book data.

Everybody back in the pool: 21-day sum of daily fund flows in QQQ.
 
This institutional selling coincides with strong retail buying, as rolling 21-day QQQ fund flows hit the third-largest inflow in recent years—even as Nasdaq 100 prices rise. A classic smart money versus retail divergence. May 7 (Thu) is the scheduled ITD #5 peak (± 4 CD) in US stocks.
 

Goldman Sachs Prime Book, as of April 30: Go with the flow.
The GS Prime Book reflects aggregated activity from Goldman's prime brokerage clients (a large but not complete slice of the hedge fund universe), so it's directional but not exhaustive. Similar insights sometimes come from JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley prime services reports. Goepfert specializes in sentiment indicators, including fund flows, options activity, positioning (e.g., hedge funds via prime broker data like Goldman Sachs), and retail vs. institutional behavior (e.g. Dump Money Confidence vs. Smart Money Confidence). Access requires a subscription, but he often shares highlights on X.

 
As of May 1, Dumb Money Confidence was very optimistic,
while Smart Money Confidence was neutral. 

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Saturday, May 2, 2026

S&P 500 Forecast for May 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

The primary forecast pattern for May.
 
The forecast focuses on market direction and timing rather than magnitude of price change. Key challenges in advanced cycle spectrum analysis (as implemented in Timing Solution) include Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT)-based spectral decomposition of price data into dominant cycles, which typically requires at least 3 years of daily observations for 30-day forecasting, with more than 5 years being optimal; pattern recognition; construction of composite cycle projection lines; and identification of initial directional biases for the upcoming month. There is also the inverse pattern, which is currently not favored by Nicholas Savino.  
 
The inverse forecast pattern for May.
 
How the April 2026 forecast played out. 
 
Reference:
 
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Monday, April 27, 2026

S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism | Alex Krainer

S&P 500 Dump Money Confidence (red line) has risen above 70%, signaling extreme optimism historically linked to consolidations or pullbacks. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), and Smart Money Confidence (blue line) stays perfectly neutral at 50% ahead of this week's major news, rates, and earnings.

 
This is not a bearish crash call but a contrarian warning. Dumb Money Confidence above 70% often marks trend exhaustion—leading to sideways trading, 5–10% pullbacks, or simply pauses before quarterly earnings. These sentiment indicators are statistically reliable over decades but can't time exact market tops. 
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