Reply by Martin Armstrong: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened Socrates so the entire world can see it. [...] Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion. [...] It’s Just Time.
Sunday, April 6, 2025
DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2 | Martin Armstrong
Reply by Martin Armstrong: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened Socrates so the entire world can see it. [...] Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion. [...] It’s Just Time.
Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!
» There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
February 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 1, 2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Patterns.
2025 02 23 (Sun) = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees = negative
2025 02 24 (Mon) = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees = negative
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE, Jack Gillen, 1979.
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy │ Namzes
In 2025, the S&P 500 is expected to head toward a multi-year major market top. The overall structure of the S&P 500 is forecasted to rise until mid-January, followed by a correction of more than 10% into late February or mid-to-late March, and then a melt-up into a major top in mid-July or late-August. This will be followed by an approximately 17% drop into late October that will trigger a bear market.
The major top is anticipated around July 17, with the possibility of a lower high or a double top/divergent high by August 22, with a minimum target of 6,500 and an upside target of approximately 7,000. After this, the market is expected to drop into a low around October 27, aligning with seasonal and nested cycle lows, followed by a bounce that ultimately fails. The S&P 500 is expected to end the year in the red, setting up for a challenging 2026, with a year-end target of 5,650.
6.) The 5-Year Liquidity Cycle, proxied by the M2 year-over-year (YoY) change, is expected to peak in the second half of 2025 and then decline until late 2028 or early 2029. The Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) is nearly drained, and while the Treasury General Account (TGA) could provide a temporary boost if it’s spent down, the Fed will soon halt Quantitative Tightening (QT). However, other central banks can't ease much due to the strong U.S. dollar. Maintaining historically overvalued equities will require a significant liquidity injection.
The ideal bottom of the 5.3-year inflation cycle falls around the end of 2025. It largely depends on oil, which should begin its multi-quarter run sometime in 2025:
■ Bitcoin will experience a deep retest into a March 2025 low, followed by one more run at the 2024 highs in early summer, after which crypto will enter a multi-year bear market. In my opinion, there is a high probability that the next 4-year cycle (2026+) will be left-translated, with Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR) being liquidated and the Tether-fraud (USDT) likely exposed. Meanwhile, almost all altcoins will lose 99-100%. It is currently unclear whether Bitcoin will act more as a NASDAQ proxy or a monetary hedge in the years ahead. Many altcoins may have already peaked for the cycle, but some, like Ethereum (ETH), still have more upside.
■ The Yen is expected to begin a multi-year uptrend, leading to trillions in capital flowing back to Japan in the years ahead.
■ Given that 2022 was the 8-year cycle low in Gold, we now have a bullish intermediate and long-term bias. There is a potential low in the spring around the 2,400 support, followed by a push higher towards 2,800–3,000+ into 2026. Central banks won’t stop buying as the war cycle and geopolitical tensions intensify, while governments debase currencies.
■ All energy should be in an uptrend over the next 6-8 quarters, with Natural Gas likely leading (reaching a new all-time high in 2026).
at the end of January to early February 2025, with a confluence of
the 100-day cycle low and the seasonal low. The above is composite
cycle chart from December 3, 2024 for reference.
My Crude Oil leading indicators and cycles suggest a big move in the next 2 years, but the exact timing of the expansion is hard to pinpoint, potentially around the end of 2025 into 2026. [see also HERE]. Uranium is likely to return to 100+ in 2025, and Coal should also see gains.
Tuesday, December 24, 2024
2025 US Stock Market Outlook │ Larry Williams
- On the positive side, there are no immediate signs of a US recession, with strong employment figures and a labor market expected to improve in early 2025. Business conditions remain stable, and historically, stock markets tend to perform well in the first year of a presidential term.
- However, there are risks, including potential profit-taking after a strong 2024 market, the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariffs, and the unpredictable actions of the Fed, Congress, and business leaders like Elon Musk.
- On the negative side, market valuations, such as high price-to-earnings and Shiller CAPE ratios, suggest that the market is overvalued, which increases the risk of a correction. Additionally, industrial production is underperforming, which could hinder economic growth, and inflationary pressures from the excessive money supply expansion since the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to market volatility.
Given the current very high valuation ratios, the 2025 forecast indicates slower growth and market underperformance compared to historical averages. Therefore I don’t foresee a runaway bull market in US stock indices in 2025, and volatility is likely to be a key characteristic, with short-term rallies and corrections. Very long-term market cycles suggest we are at the beginning of a prolonged period of sideways movement, with the next major bull market not expected to begin until around 2038.
Regarding a major crash that some are constantly talking about, I don't see it occurring in 2025 either. While the market will be challenging, the overall bias will lean toward the upside.
Larry Williams ( December 20, 2024) - 2025 Market Outlook: The Good, Bad, and Ugly. (video)
Saturday, August 31, 2024
S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October | Wayne Whaley
This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
S&P 500 Strength into May 1st & Weakness through Mid May | Larry Williams
That weakness could be followed by a relief rally into early June, then another leg down in July. “I am heavily short here,” he says. He expects a strong end of the year as a rally gets under way in early September.
MarketWatch (April 23, 2024) - Ralph Acampora, Larry Williams and Vance Howard see market weakness ahead.