Showing posts with label US Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Stocks. Show all posts

Monday, March 16, 2026

The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited | @Fiorente2

Multiple long-term cyclical frameworks suggest that US equity markets may be entering a period of heightened volatility and potential trend transition during 2026. The convergence of several key cycles—including the 60-year cycle, the 22-year cycle, and planetary timing structures involving Saturn, Venus–Uranus, and Jupiter–Saturn—points to a series of possible inflection points beginning in March 2026 and extending through mid-year. Measured from the April 2025 market low, these cycles begin to cluster between March and July 2026. While the February 2026 highs across several indices may represent an important crest, the possibility of cycle inversions or secondary tops remains open.
 
Long-Term Cycles
A central structural reference is the 60-year cycle measured from the April 2025 low. Historically, this cycle has corresponded with major turning points in US equity markets. Notably, the NYSE Composite reached a comparable high exactly 60 years earlier. However, the present market has not yet produced the decline typically associated with this cycle. Instead, market behavior may be following the 22-year cycle more closely, suggesting a gradual and phased decline that could extend into mid-August 2026.

Chart 1
NYSE Composite and Long-Term Cycles: Interaction between the 
60-year and 22-year cycles measured from the April 2025 market low.

An earlier trough may occur near the end of June, corresponding with approximately 15 degrees of heliocentric Saturn movement measured from the April 7, 2025 low. A late-June to early-July 2026 trough would also coincide with three Venus–Uranus heliocentric oppositions projected from the April 2025 bottom. Within this framework, a shorter-term inflection point appears around March 13, 2026, where a temporary rebound may occur.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
The DJIA exhibits several notable cyclical alignments. The index reached a peak in early February that squared out along a Saturn 1×2 timing line, aligning closely with the equivalent date 60 years earlier. In addition, the heliocentric synodic cycle of Venus and Uranus has tracked recent turning points with remarkable precision, with several inflection points occurring within only a few days of major price reversals.

Chart 2
DJIA Saturn Timing and Venus–Uranus Synodic Cycle: Alignment of Saturn timing
lines and Venus–Uranus heliocentric aspects with recent market turning points.
 
S&P 500
Applying Saturn timing lines derived from prior highs and lows to the S&P 500—combined with the Venus–Uranus synodic cycle—suggests the index may be declining toward a potential trough around mid-March 2026 during an initial corrective phase. This move could represent the first leg of a broader cyclical decline associated with either the 60-year or 22-year cycle. Historically, these cycles often move in similar directional phases for extended periods, reinforcing the prevailing market trend.

Chart 3
S&P 500 Cyclical Timing Structure: Saturn timing lines and the Venus–Uranus
synodic cycle suggest a possible corrective phase developing in early 2026.

Nasdaq Composite
Because the Nasdaq Composite did not exist 60 years ago, the analysis relies primarily on the 22-year cycle. A Saturn planetary fan projected from the January high provides a framework for estimating potential downside trajectories should the current downtrend continue. While the 60-year cycle likely influences the broader market environment, its historical behavior cannot be directly evaluated for the Nasdaq. The Venus–Uranus heliocentric synodic cycle projected from the April 2025 low nevertheless identifies several well-defined inflection points that align closely with recent price movements.

Chart 4
Nasdaq Composite with Saturn Planetary Fan: Potential trend pathways
using Saturn planetary fan geometry and Venus–Uranus timing.

Historical Analogue: 1966 vs. 2026
A striking historical comparison can be observed when examining the 1966 market cycle. In 1966, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a peak near 1,000 on February 9 and subsequently declined to approximately 500 by October 10. Overlaying the current 2026 decline from the February 9 peak onto the 1966 pattern reveals a broadly similar percentage trajectory thus far. While historical analogues should be treated cautiously, the comparison provides a useful framework for evaluating the potential magnitude of the present correction.

Chart 5
DJIA Historical Comparison: 1966 vs. 2026. Overlay analysis shows
similarities between the 1966 decline and the current market structure.

Planetary Time Clusters
Market volatility often increases when multiple planetary geometries and transit aspects occur within a narrow time window. The chart below aggregates cumulative hard aspects (0°, 90°, and 180°) of planetary transits together with major planetary geometries. These elements form Time Cycle Clusters, which historically correspond with periods of heightened volatility and increased market activity.

Chart 6 — DJIA and Planetary Time Cycle Clusters: Periods historically associated with elevated market volatility.


Jupiter–Saturn Structural Cycle
Another important framework is the long-term Jupiter–Saturn cycle. Projecting three Jupiter–Saturn cycles forward from the October 1966 market low produces an alignment in May 2026 corresponding with the original 1966 trough. This alignment could represent either a high or a low. However, because the second Jupiter–Saturn cycle corresponded with a market peak, the probability may favor a cyclical trough around May 2026.

Chart 7
DJIA Jupiter–Saturn Cycle Projection: The chart projects three full Jupiter–Saturn cycles
forward from the October 1966 market low, resulting in a precise alignment marked in May 2026 
that corresponds to the original 1966 trough.
 
The Jupiter–Saturn synodic cycle measured from the October 10, 1966 low—using 90-degree increments—aligned closely with the 2007 market peak, occurring just 13 days before the October 10, 2007 high. Extending the third segment of this cycle projects forward to May 20, 2026, which occurs 18 years and 7 months after the 2007 peak. This represents 1080 degrees of Jupiter–Saturn motion, or three full cycles measured from the October 1966 low.

Since 2018, several major market crests—including those in 2021, early 2022, and February 2026—have aligned with a Jupiter planetary line drawn through these peaks. If this pattern continues, the February 2026 high may represent an interim crest similar to the 2022 peak, with a potential trough forming between April and July 2026.
 The current decline may represent only the initial phase of a broader corrective structure similar to the 1966 market decline, although confirmation remains premature.
Macroeconomic conditions remain relatively resilient, and a rapid improvement in geopolitical conditions could quickly restore bullish sentiment. Such developments could produce a secondary market top within the April–June window. At present, the balance of cyclical evidence suggests that the February 2026 peak may represent an important market crest. However, as with all cyclical models, inversions remain possible and should be considered within the broader analytical framework.
Reference:
 

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Extreme Backwardation in VIX Futures | Tom McClellan

As of March 6, 2026, the VIX futures market is in extreme backwardation. The spot VIX has surpassed the highest futures contract by more than 10%, signaling acute near-term panic relative to expectations of future stability.

When the price of a near-month contract exceeds those of
further-dated contracts
, the mar
ket is in backwardation.

Oil futures for April 2026 delivery trading above $90, while the
contract 11 months out (March 2027) remains significantly lower at $66.50.
 
Blue annotations on the VIX chart above highlight similar negative spreads during key 2025–2026 events, such as tariff-induced sell-offs, employment revisions, geopolitical tensions, and the Bitcoin crash. These spikes often coincided with S&P 500 pullbacks that marked local bottoms before subsequent recoveries. While this pattern suggests current volatility may precede near-term stabilization, the broader market trajectory remains contingent on the resolution of underlying stressors like trade policy and global conflict.
 
 

See also:

Sunday, March 1, 2026

S&P 500 Forecast for March 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Following a brief correction through March 3 (Tue), the forecast projects a rally toward a peak around March 9 (Mon). This high is expected to be followed by a decline into March 16 (Mon), a rally leading into March 27 (Fri), and subsequent weakness heading into the end of the month.
 
March 3
 (Tue) Low, March 9 (Mon) High, 
March 16 (Mon) Low, March 27 (Fri) High.
 
This forecast focuses on directional timing and is not scaled for price.
 
Reference:
[check for updates] 
 
 

Sunday, February 22, 2026

S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low

The current 40-week cycle began at the November 21, 2025 trough. Its primary components are two 20-week cycles, which averaged 16.9 weeks (118 days = Delta cycle) over recent iterations. 
 
 SPY (daily candles), September 2025 to May 2026.

The low of the first 20-week cycle is expected to occur between March 17 and March 19 (Tue–Thu).
 

 10-day cycle (7.6 days) low = Feb 24 (Tue)
 20-day cycle (14.7 days) low = Mar 3 (Tue)
 40-day cycle (31 days) low = Mar 17 (Tue)
 80-day cycle (57 days) low = Mar 18 (Wed)
 20-week cycle (118 days) low = Mar 19 (Thu)
 
The 40-week cycle (and 18-month cycle) trough is projected into late July (±).
 
See also:

Thursday, February 19, 2026

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil
Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom. 
 

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation. 
 
 Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical
downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.
 
Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas
Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold
Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.
 
Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; 
Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.
 
Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver
Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger
Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. 
 
 
Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits. 
 

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance. 

Cocoa
Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops. 
 
 
Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; 
short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.
 
Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.
 
See also:

Sunday, February 15, 2026

3-Step Guide to Market Timing via Astro Cycles | Bradley F. Cowan

If you have ever been curious about how planetary cycles can be used to forecast market trends, but gave up after looking at the astrology books, you are not alone. All those strange symbols and terminology like orbs, houses, rulerships, and transits can be very intimidating. And most people do not want to spend years getting a PhD in Astrology to find a reliable indicator of trend duration.

Figure 1: DJIA Weekly Performance Relative to 30° Heliocentric Saturn-Uranus Movements.
Commencing from the June 13, 1949, major market low.

Like most traders using astro techniques, I started with the classical approach, but soon discovered that by applying a few simple rules you can forecast the timing of market turns quite accurately without needing to know all the details of astrology textbooks. Simply stated, all you need to do is follow a 3-step process:
 
1. Find a clearly identifiable top or bottom on a chart. 
2. Find locations of planets on that date. (Software does this for you.
3. Make time projections by adding multiples of 30 degrees to locations in (2). (Software does this for you.) 

Where this technique differs from classical Astrology is that I do not care what the angles between the planets are at the tops or bottoms, just the distance they travel between two turning points. Classical Astrology tells us to expect changes when two planets are at certain predefined angles of separation. Traditionally, these are 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, and 180 degrees. But it seemed a bit arrogant to me to be telling God that he should do something on our schedule. So I looked instead at what the market was telling us, at where the planets are at the tops and bottoms and use THAT angle as our starting point, regardless of its value.

It's really a simple process that I have successfully applied to my trading for more than 20 years. As an example, we will look at a compressed weekly chart of the DJIA from 1949 to 1975, shown in Figure 1. Applying the 3-step process:

Step 1: Find a major bottom or top. Anytime after 1950 the bottom in 1949 [June 13, 1949] would have been easy to identify as a major bottom, so that will be used as our starting point.
Step 2: Find the locations of the planets at the date in Step 1 [On June 13, 1949, Saturn was at 156.72° and Uranus at 90.62° heliocentric ecliptic longitude, placing them 66.10° apart.] A book called an ephemeris can be used to find the locations of the planets, or there are several software programs that will do the same much faster. All calculations, projections, and charts in this article were made using the software CycleTimer. Because this is a long-term weekly chart, the major cycles will correspond with the 3 slower moving outer planets Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. If we were working with a daily chart then the faster inner planets, Mars, Venus, Mercury would be used. Experience has taught that most markets have a strong cycle closely correlated with the heliocentric (viewed from the sun) movement of Saturn relative to Uranus. CycleTimer shows that at the bottom in 1949 the location of Saturn was 66 degrees from Uranus, so that is the cycle origin from which our future cycle dates are projected.
Step 3: Add 30, 60, 90, etc. degrees to the location in Step 2 (66 degrees). Adding 30-degree increments to 66 produces 96, 126, 156, etc. [see table below]. CycleTimer calculates and plots in Figure 1 the dates that Saturn and Uranus were separated by these angles. Six instances of this cycle are shown, or a full 180 degrees. You can see that this cycle closely corresponded with major bottoms at every instance.

Classical Astrological techniques do not identify this cycle because it does not coincide with their predefined angles of 60, 90, 120, and 150 degrees. To improve the probability that your cycles projected into the future are accurate, be sure that at least three instances have occurred in your historical data, not including the starting point. If you have less than three occurrences of the cycle move your starting point back in time until you have at least three. And more importantly, be sure that you have no more than one or two "false positives", that is, a cycle that arrives with no significant trend change. If you follow these rules you will have a high probability that your projected cycle dates will be correct and you can expect a reversal of trend very near that date.

 
Figure 2.A:  90-Degrees heliocentric movements of Mars relative to Uranus in DJIA (weekly bars).
 
Figure 2 shows an example of how I used this 3-step technique to make a real-time forecast in October 2001 for a trend reversal in February 8. Part A (above) is a copy of the chart I posted on the discussion group at HarmonicTiming.com in October 2001 and is available in their archives. Part B (below) shows how the forecast turned out. This cycle uses heliocentric 90-degree movements of Mars relative to Uranus. 
 
Figure 2.B: Daily chart shows the forecast based on Mars-Uranus cycle was accurate to the day.
  
Following the 3-step process and using a cycle start date at the low of November 1997, produces a cycle where all eight recurrences coincided with significant market turns. Therefore, there was a high probability that the next recurrence in the future would also mark a turn. Figure 2.B shows what happened. On February 8 the DJIA bottomed and began an advance of 1100 points, or 11%, in one month. This is another cycle that classical Astrologers would have missed because the angles between Mars and Uranus for this cycle are 7, 83, 173 degrees, which are not any of the classical predefined angles.

Nesting Cycles Amplify Their Net Effect
When you gain more experience using this technique you will be able to watch more than one cycle at a time, which makes sense because there are more than two planets in the Solar System. These multiple cycles can either interfere with each other if they arrive at different times, or reinforce each other if they arrive at the same time. If two or more cycles bottom closely together (nest) they reinforce each other and their net effect is amplified. This results in a sharp panicky sell off followed by a quick recovery producing a "V" or "trauma" bottom.
 
Figure 3: Two cycles arriving simultaneously allowed this forecast to be made one year in advance.
 
Figure 3 shows how I used the technique of nesting cycles to accurately forecast almost one year in advance the June-July 2002 sell off and bottom in stocks. This chart was also posted in the discussion group at HarmonicTiming.com in October 2001 and is available in their archives. To keep the technique simple the cycle start dates were taken out of the textbook Four-Dimensional Stock Market Structures And Cycles and extrapolated into the future using CycleTimer software. The entire projection process took less than one minute.

The Saturn-Uranus cycle we studied earlier during the 1949-1975 period is again used with the origin set at the major low of November 1994. The second cycle is another that has historically produced reliable results, the movement of Jupiter relative to Uranus, or the Jupiter-Uranus cycle. The crash low of October 1987 was used for the origin of the Jupiter-Uranus cycle because it has produced a cycle that has repeated dependably for the last 15 years. When CycleTimer projected these two cycles into the future it showed them nesting (arriving at the same time) in late June-July producing a warning that this was a very high-risk time. The position trader would liquidate any remaining long positions he had before this high-risk time arrived and wait out the storm [...].

Works For Daytrading Too
Daytraders can use the same 3-step technique on intraday data. The major difference between intraday timing and end-of-day is that intraday uses the rotation of the Earth instead of the orbits of the planets. This increases the complexity a little bit because you not only want to watch the smaller cycles but the larger ones as well. A few small cycles arriving intraday will not affect the market much if it is in a strong trend caused by a large cycle. So work with the larger cycles first before moving into intraday. Future articles will focus on intraday timing techniques [which were never published]. 
 
Quoted from:
 
30-Degrees heliocentric movements of Saturn relative to Uranus from June 13, 1949 through February 8, 2049.
 [Note: This calculation of the 30-degree heliocentric ecliptic longitude separations differs from the dates and values provided by Cowan.] 
 

See also:

Thursday, February 12, 2026

S&P 500: Hurst 10-Day Cycle Low Set to Hit Friday's CPI News Release

S&P 500 (3 hour candles): 10-Day cycle (currently ≈7.6 days) low due Friday, February 13 (CPI News Release).
 

50% DJIA Gain Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High | Jeff Hirsch

Historical data going back to 1914 shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has typically fallen about 20% from its peak in the year following a presidential election to its trough during the subsequent midterm year. Weakness has been most persistent in Q2 and Q3 of Midterm years. Regardless of the precise level reached, the advance that normally follows is a very attractive entry point for position traders (see tab and chart below).

% Change in DJIA between Midterm year Low and High of following year, 1914-2023.

Within the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, the most favorable phase begins late in the Midterm year: The strongest consecutive two quarters historically run from Q4 of the Midterm year into the Q1 of the Pre-Election year, delivering average gains of 46.3% for the Dow.
 
  S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

Q2 of the Pre-Election year is also notably strong—ranking as the third-best quarter of the 
Four-Year Presidential Cycle—effectively extending this high-performance window to three quarters, from Midterm Q4 2026 through Pre-Election Q2 2027. 
 
Reference:
 
Q4 2026: Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle.
Assuming the future will be but an averaged past (1973-2026).   

See also: