S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September | Wayne Whaley

Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 gained 10% or more in the first three quarters and September was positive, the fourth quarter has historically been positive 80% of the time (16 out of 20 years). The average gain for the fourth quarter during these years is 4.42%. The best performance observed was +11.36%, while the worst was a loss of -1.26%.

Looking at 2025, as of September 27, with only two trading days left in the month, the first three quarters of the year have seen a total gain of 12.96%, with 2.84% of that gain coming from September alone.

 

October: The market has been negative in October 55% of the time (9 years up, 11 down) with an average loss of -0.44%. The best performance was +4.46%, while the worst was -6.86%.

October 20–27: During this specific period, the market has been down 80% of the time (4 years up, 16 down), with an average decline of -1.29%. The best performance was +1.22%, and the worst was -8.23%.

November: In contrast, November has been positive 80% of the time (16 years up, 4 down), with an average gain of +3.41%. The best was a gain of +10.24%, while the worst was a decline of -1.89%.

December: December has been positive 75% of the time (15 years up, 5 down), with an average gain of +1.47%. The best performance was +5.25%, and the worst was -3.39%.

Combining November and December, the performance has been positive 90% of the time (18 years up, 2 down), with an average gain of 4.81%. The best combined performance was +13.57%, while the worst was a modest -0.45%.

The average absolute drawdown in the fourth quarter was -2.66%. The worst was -8.64%, though the period also saw potential upside gains of up to +12.00%.

  

Reference:

Wayne Whaley, September 27, 2025.

 

 

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years.
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.  

17-0 Turn-of-Year S&P 500 Setup with 7.1% Average Gain | Wayne Whaley

After the 20% pullback in the S&P 500 that occurred from February 19 to April 8, May, June, and July each posted positive returns of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 2.1%, respectively. In the 75 years following 1950, there have only been 17 instances in which the traditional "Sell in May and Go Away" period was marked by three consecutive positive months (May, June, and July): 

 From October 12 to October 27, the performance was 2 wins to 15 losses, with an average loss of 3.0%.

From October 27 to January 18, the record was 17-0, with an average gain of 7.1%.

 

Looking at the following 12 months, from August through July, the outcome was favorable, with a record of 14 wins and 3 losses in this setup. The average gain over this period was 12.6%, compared to a more typical yearly gain of 9.5%.

Interestingly, the only negative month during the following year was October. Specifically, from October 12 to October 27, the performance was 2 wins to 15 losses, with an average loss of 3.0%. However, from October 27 to January 18, the trend reversed dramatically, posting a perfect 17-0 record with an average gain of 7.1% over 11.7 weeks.

Wayne Whaley,
August 2, 2025.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (May 17, 2025)  - "Three Day Whaley" Predicting 20% Average Annual Return.

S&P 500 Rally Returns to Midpoint of Long-Term Channel | Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 has rallied about 25% in 3 months to hit record highs, which seems impressive. But it is only 2% above the February peak; i.e., over the last 5 months, it is up 5% at an annualized rate. And year-to-date, it is up 6.5%, or 12.5% at an annualized rate. In historical context, these numbers do not stand out.

The S&P 500 has just caught back up to the middle of its post Global Financial Crisis channel, 

and price gain so far this year is in line with the long-run median outside of recessions.
 

The median annual gain for the S&P 500 over the last 100 years is about 11.5%. And if one were to look only at years without recessions, it is 13%; for those with positive returns, the median is a whopping 19.5%. Indeed, the S&P 500 trends upward over time with occasional selloffs, and over the last 15 years—i.e., since the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)—it has been in a strong but wide channel rising at an annual rate of 12.5%. The rally has just taken it back to the middle of this channel, where it was at the February peak. 

 

Deutsche Bank, July 13, 2025.

 

  » Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. «

 

Since 1980 the median annual drawdown of the S&P 500 is 11% for all years,

and it's the same for election years (red boxes). 

 

» US stock market is among the three most overvalued in 100 years. « 

 

 Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle 2024-2027, Ned Davis Research, 2024.

The Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle, 1900–2024.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (July 6, 2025)  - The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? 

The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? | Wayne Whaley

The S&P finished the 4th of July week at 6,279.35 and is now up 6.76% for 2025 and 13.4% over the last 12 rolling months (July 4 - July 4), currently residing at an All Time High for at least the three day weekend. 

 

You may recall that the S&P experienced an 18.9% selloff from the February 19th Close of 6,144.15 to the April 8th Close of 4,982.77, exceeding 20% if measured vs the April 8th intraday Low of 4,910.42. From that 4,982.77 Closing Low on April 8th, the S&P has now advanced 26.0%, doing so in less than a Quarter, 86 calendar days (April 8 - July 3) to be precise.  

The S&P surged 26% in just 86 days, reaching another all-time high, and has now risen 6.76% in 2025. 

Historical data shows similar rallies led to gains of 19.2%+ over the next year.

 

Looking back through post 1950 history, I can only find five prior occasions in which the S&P has advanced 25% in less than a Quarter and none of those five occasions were anywhere near an impending top. 

Certainly, one would prefer to have more than five data points from which to draw conclusions upon which to base one's market exposure but the magnitude and uniformity of the advances across the following 12 months in those five cases appears worthy of our respect. All five cases were positive over the following 1 to 12 months, up at least 19.2% one year later, 31.7% on average. None of the five cases experienced a 4% drawdown as measured from the signal Date.
 

Wayne Whaley 

July 5, 2025

 

 

See also:

Branimir Vojcic (July 5, 2025)  - The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500.
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.  

"Three Day Whaley" Predicting 20% Average Annual Return | Wayne Whaley

When the S&P 500 experiences a one-day upside move of three standard deviations or more, there is often a tendency for the index to undergo some level of profit-taking (consolidation) over the next couple of days. However, if the index defies this tendency and follows the initial surge with two consecutive positive days, it signals strength. This pattern, known as the "Three Day Whaley," is a notable market move deserving of attention.

 The "Three Day Whaley" signal has a perfect 30-0 record since 1950

for predicting positive annual returns averaging 20.2%.

Volatility has increased over the past 75 years. The setup for this pattern requires the S&P to post a move on Day 1 that reflects the volatility during that specific period, followed by two consecutive positive days. The threshold for that initial move has evolved from around 2.25% in 1950 to 3.25% in 2025.

On May 12-14, the S&P met the criteria for this setup with a three-day sequence of 3.25%, 0.76%, and 0.10%—its first occurrence since March 26, 2020, which was followed by a 50.55% annual gain.

Since 1950, the S&P has gone 30-0 in the year following this setup, with an average annual gain of 20.2%. All 30 instances have seen at least a 7.5% gain, and only four of the 30 cases experienced a double-digit drawdown. The first-day threshold requirement can be found in column 3 (DAY1 THHLD) in the table above.

Reference:
Wayne Whaley (May 17, 2025)  - A 30-0 Three Day Whaley.

See also:

Paul Ciana (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years.

Ryan Detrick (May 16, 2025) - S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls.

The Toy2mt Barometer Signals Neutrality for 2025 │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P's performance from November 19 to January 19 has an interesting history of accurately predicting the direction of the S&P over the subsequent 12 months. I refer to this time frame as Toy2mt (Turn of the Year - Two months).  See November 23rd Post. 

 Neutral Toy2mt Signal Performance since 1950 = Average 9.3% Annual Gain.

 

• When Toy2mt is greater than 3%, the following year is 36-2 for an average gain of 16.7%.
• When Toy2mt is negative, the following year is 7-11 for an average loss of 2.6%.
• The 2025 Toy2mt came in at 1.35%.  The above table shows the post-1950 performance, in which Toy2mt came in at 0-3%, which is considered the neutral signal range.

Neutral Toy signal performance is in line with historic norms, as 73.7% of post-1950 Toy years have been positive for an average gain of 9.3%. I have other Toy Barometers with similar forecasting acumen that are still works in progress, which I defer to when Toy2mt is inconclusive.

Wayne Whaley, January 18, 2025.

 

MAG 7 January 2025 Seasonality Charts. 

 

 See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 17, 2025) - Market Bounce After December Low Breach Encouraging. 

The Status of the TOY Barometer at the End of November | Wayne Whaley

The way equity markets move from one year to the next often provides insight into what to expect in the following year. One of my favorite Turn of the Year (TOY) barometers is Toy2mt, which tracks the S&P 500's performance over the two months from November 19 to January 19. Historically, when the S&P shows a gain of 3% or more during this period, it has performed very well over the following 12 months (36-2 record, with an average return of 16.6%). I have found that the November component of Toy2mt (November 19-30) serves as an early indicator of what may lie ahead for Toy2mt and the year to come.

As of November 30, six of the first seven Toy2mt days were positive, and the November segment of Toy2mt stands at +1.98%, with bulls targeting a +3% Toy2mt return. Below is the performance for the following 12 months (December-November) since 1950, based on three different levels of the November 19-30 segment of Toy2mt.

 

» If I could make only one trade per year based on one indicator, it would be Toy2mt. «

[HERE], and [HERE]

When the November 19-30 period registers +1.5% or higher, it has typically been a positive signal for the following 12 months (December-November). In 2024, the November 19-30 period came in at +1.98%. It’s still early, and we will learn much more over the next seven weeks.

Wayne Whaley, November 30, 2024.

20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart

Insider selling is often early.

The highest bars in the chart above (ratio of sellers to buyers) seem to come before the final major price tops in the S&P 500. The ratio of insider selling to buying is now at a 20+ year high:

 

1. Stocks are at an all-time high.
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,

     leaving everyone else to be the patsy when the rug pull arrives.

Adam Taggart, November 27, 2024. 

Scott Rubner: 4% year-end rally to 6,200 in the S&P 500, and 7,000 not long after.
Bloomberg, November 25, 2024.

 

Over the past 50 years, the Nasdaq has only experienced one instance (2011) where it was negative both on the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving. Out of the 9 negative Wednesdays recorded during this period, the Nasdaq posted a positive return on 8 Fridays after Thanksgiving, with an average Friday gain of 1.39% and a median gain of 0.83%.

Wayne Whaley, November 27, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 28, 2024.

S&P Performance After Back-to-Back Double-Digit Years │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P was up 24.23% in 2023 and, as of October 19th, is up 22.95% in 2024. Barring a 10% correction in the last two months of this year, the S&P is positioned to post back-to-back double-digit years for the 25th time since 1930, which is the starting point of my S&P database.

 

Since 1930, the S&P has had 65 winning years out of 95 (68.4%), with an average annual gain of 7.9%. After back-to-back double-digit years, it has recorded 13 wins and 11 losses, with an average annual gain of 2.9%. Notably, since 1950, January results have been 7-12, with the last four being negative. The nine prior cases highlighted in yellow represent post-election years, where the S&P was 4-5, with an average gain of 1.5%.

There have been three occasions of at least four consecutive double-digit years: 1942-1945, 1949-1952, and five consecutive years during the early phase of the technology revolution from 1995-1999. This does not include the eight consecutive positive years in the 1980s, of which six were double-digit gains. Therefore, there is precedent for the rally to continue, especially if one believes we are in the second chapter of the technology revolution, driven by advances in AI.

Wayne Whaley — October 19, 2024.  

October 27: Key Date for the Year-End Rally | Wayne Whaley

We examined the S&P's performance during the first nine months of 2024. The index finished September with an impressive 20.8% increase, having only faced one losing month in April, which saw a decline of 4.2%. Notably, all seven rolling quarters during this period were positive, comprising the months from January to March, February to April, and so on. This remarkable performance places 2024 among only 15 years since 1930 that experienced both a gain of over 10% in the first nine months and no negative rolling quarter within that same timeframe. It's significant to note that all instances occurred after 1950.

A closer look at the historical data from the previous 14 cases reveals a pattern: while there tends to be some weakness in the second week of October, this is often followed by an "End of Year" rally starting around October 27. In fact, 13 out of the 14 instances recorded were positive from that date through the end of the year, with only a minor fractional loss occurring in 1964. Worth noting, four of the last five years have also seen positive performances during the period from October 7 to 15.

Wayne Whaley — October 6, 2024.

When the SPX is up through 3Q in an election year, 4Q is up 89% of the time 

w/avg return of 4.98% (4.26% median), which equates to SPX 6,000 into yearend.

See also:

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 1, 2024) - October Volatility After Big Gain First Three Quarters.

S&P 500 seasonal pattern for October of the election year 2024 in line with the decennial cycle — September 29, 2024.

Stephen Suttmeier (July 1, 2024) - S&P 500 seasonality: first ten sessions and last ten sessions of the month since 1928.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Influence & Trend for the Year.

The S&P 500 After the Current Six-Month Pattern | Wayne Whaley

If the S&P doesn’t lose 1.6% on Monday, it will mark the fifth consecutive positive month, following the 4.2% loss in April.

Since 1950, this six-month pattern of one decline followed by five consecutive increases (Down-Up-Up-Up-Up-Up) has occurred 29 times. In 27 of those instances, the S&P was higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 12.8%.

Wayne Whaley — September 29, 2024

Ryan Detrick — September, 2024.

 Ned Davis — September 30, 2024.

Hurst Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ: An 80-day cycle low is expected to form in mid-October 

— David Hickson, September 30, 2024.

S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September | Wayne Whaley

On Thursday, September 19, the S&P 500 closed at a new twelve-month high as well as an all-time high. Since 1950, there have been twenty-nine years in which a twelve-month high was set in September.

In those twenty-nine prior cases, the fourth quarter was twenty-four wins and five losses, resulting in an average quarterly gain of 4.17 percent. The weakest period in the fourth quarter, on average, was from October 20 to 27, during which that week experienced twelve one-percent losses and only two gains of over one percent.

 

The sweet spot was from October 27 to December 5, which recorded twenty-five wins and four losses, with three percent moves being fifteen wins and zero losses. The last twenty instances, dating back to 1967, have followed this pattern.

 

Reference:

Wayne Whaley (September 21, 2024) - A New Twelve-Month High in September.

 

 

 

 

William J. O’Neil's Cup & Handle continuation pattern.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 14, 2024) - September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year.   

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 17, 2024) - September Quarterly Options Expiration Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year | Wayne Whaley

The weekly performance measure used for comparison is an average of the weeks of interest over the last 50 years, which,

1. Underweights outliers that can distort averages and overweights the observations congregating more toward

     the median and,
2. Weights the most recent years 2 to 1 vs those 50 years prior. 

 

 Wayne Whaley @ X — September 14, 2024.

 

See also:

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October.  

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October | Wayne Whaley

For this study, summer is defined as the three months from June to August. Historically, the S&P 500 index tends to show modest performance during the summer, with an average gain of 1.43% since 1950 over these three months. In 2024, however, the S&P 500 achieved an impressive 7.03% gain during the summer, with individual gains of 3.5% in June, 1.1% in July, and 2.3% in August.

 

The weakest seasonal period of the year historically occurs in the second half of September. However, strong summers often push much of the traditional September weakness into October, specifically from October 18th to October 28th. During this period in the years with a summer gain of over 5%, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 2.53%, with a performance record of 4 gains and 19 losses.

This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.

Reference:
Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - Five Percent Summers. 

 

4-Year Presidential Election Cycle 1949-2020 vs 2021-2024

— Jeff Hirsch, August 19, 2024

After +10% January-July and a Negative First Half of August | Wayne Whaley

The S&P was up 15.8% in the first 7 months (January-July) of 2024 and, as of August 11, is down 3.2% in August. The S&P has a history of going counter trend in August with early August weakness after a strong year tending to strengthen the case for a bullish finish. For example, since 1950, there have been 16 years in which a double digit, first seven months of the year (January-July) was followed by a negative first two weeks of August.

The following August 14-January time frame was 14-2 in this setup for an average 5 1/2 months gain of 9.34%. The 5% moves were 12-0 to the positive with the worst drawdown as measured from August 14 of the single digit variety.

The weakest period, on average, was September 23-October 2 which was 6-10 for an average loss of 0.90%. The strongest time frame was October 27-January 20 which was positive in all 16 of those setups for an average, 8 week, gain of 7.27%.

Quoted from:
Wayne Whaley (August 10, 2024) - When a negative 1st two weeks of August is preceded by a +10% January-July.

» After an early August selloff, the market has tended to spend the balance of August bouncing 

around on average with little meaningful progress. The tightening of the presidential election and 

elevated geopolitical tensions are likely to keep a lid on markets through the rest of the “Worst Months“. «

 

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter/X - Feb 28, 2024

Next weekly directional change during week of August 26.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (August 07, 2024) - No Escaping Historically Miserable August.
TPR (July 25, 2024) - Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2024.
Martin Armstrong (July 14, 2024) - Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

Sergey Tarassov (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 & 42 Month Cycles.