The market continues to follow the trends of our seasonal and 4-year cycle patterns [...] In our July Outlook, we maintained our bullish outlook for 2024, but cautioned that the market was possibly due for some mean reversion (a pullback) once NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally ended in mid-July. NASDAQ did top out on July 10 while DJIA and S&P 500 topped about one week later.
The market has
recovered in line with Historical Election Year strength in August, but
the correction is not likely over. With President Biden stepping aside
our Open Field Election Year is back in play. This does not mean we are
heading into the red for the year, but it does suggest the market may
continue to struggle over the next few months during the seasonal weak
period and leading up to this now more uncertain election. [...] Any potential September/October market
weakness could set up a solid Q4, End-of-Year Rally, most likely
beginning after Election Day [Tuesday, November 5, 2024].
Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (August 19, 2024) - Seasonality Works! Trade the Cycles & Profit from History.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (August 19, 2024) - Seasonality Works! Trade the Cycles & Profit from History.
SPX 4-Year Cycle Update: Remarkable how well actual price action has tracked the projected composite.
See also: