For this study, summer is defined as the three months from June to August. Historically, the S&P 500 index tends to show modest performance during the summer, with an average gain of 1.43% since 1950 over these three months. In 2024, however, the S&P 500 achieved an impressive 7.03% gain during the summer, with individual gains of 3.5% in June, 1.1% in July, and 2.3% in August.
The weakest
seasonal period of the year historically occurs in the second half of
September. However, strong summers often push much of the traditional
September weakness into October, specifically from October 18th to
October 28th. During this period in the years with a summer gain of over
5%, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 2.53%, with a performance
record of 4 gains and 19 losses.
This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.
This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.
4-Year Presidential Election Cycle 1949-2020 vs 2021-2024