The S&P was up 15.8% in the first 7 months (January-July) of 2024 and, as of August 11, is down 3.2% in August. The S&P has a history of going counter trend in August with early August weakness after a strong year tending to strengthen the case for a bullish finish. For example, since 1950, there have been 16 years in which a double digit, first seven months of the year (January-July) was followed by a negative first two weeks of August.
The following August 14-January time frame was 14-2 in this setup for an average 5 1/2 months gain of 9.34%. The 5% moves were 12-0 to the positive with the worst drawdown as measured from August 14 of the single digit variety.
The weakest period, on average, was September 23-October 2 which was 6-10 for an average loss of 0.90%. The strongest time frame was October 27-January 20 which was positive in all 16 of those setups for an average, 8 week, gain of 7.27%.
The following August 14-January time frame was 14-2 in this setup for an average 5 1/2 months gain of 9.34%. The 5% moves were 12-0 to the positive with the worst drawdown as measured from August 14 of the single digit variety.
The weakest period, on average, was September 23-October 2 which was 6-10 for an average loss of 0.90%. The strongest time frame was October 27-January 20 which was positive in all 16 of those setups for an average, 8 week, gain of 7.27%.
Quoted from:
Wayne Whaley (August 10, 2024) - When a negative 1st two weeks of August is preceded by a +10% January-July.
» After an early August selloff, the market has tended to spend the balance of August bouncing
Wayne Whaley (August 10, 2024) - When a negative 1st two weeks of August is preceded by a +10% January-July.
around on average with little meaningful progress. The tightening of the presidential election and
elevated geopolitical tensions are likely to keep a lid on markets through the rest of the “Worst Months“. «
