The "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression" is a long-wave economic theory proposed by American aviation engineer J.M. Funk around 1932. Funk considered this cycle so
significant that he delivered numerous lectures and published a
pamphlet, "The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity", to
promote his theory. Although his concept garnered
some attention during his lifetime, it was largely overlooked by
mainstream economists and academia.
J.M. Funk’s chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression" connects key years spaced 56 years apart using "long needles" or sequences, and also divides the cycle into sub-periods of 20-20-16 years (totaling 56 years), which mark major economic events—particularly panics.
The chart above incorporates additional sub-cycles of 9 and 36 years, both aligned with historical financial crises. Its structure suggests a long-wave economic cycle potentially linked to the lunar nodal cycle (approximately 18.6 years), as 18.6 × 3 ≈ 55.8 years—closely matching the 56-year framework. The sub-cycles (20-20-16 years), along with the shorter 9- and 36-year intervals (with 36 being roughly 2 × 18.6), indicate periodic economic turning points, often associated with panics or crises. The 9-year sub-cycles, possibly derived by halving the lunar nodal cycle (18.6 ÷ 2 ≈ 9.3 years), also align with historical episodes of financial distress.
The year 2025 falls within the series 2025–1969–1913–1857, while 2026 connects to 1970-1914-1858. The "Panic. Dumping" needle pointing to late 2025 is followed by "Low Prices. Buy." needles at the 2026–2027 cusp and the center of the chart, suggesting that 2025 marks the peak of a panic, with 2026 signaling the beginning of a recovery phase. Historically, the 56-year cycle from 1969 (preceding the 1970 recession) to 2025 aligns with a panic, while 1970 showed early signs of recovery. The 9-year sub-cycle from 2017 (a year without a major panic) to 2026 fits the broader pattern of a crisis followed by stabilization.
Accordingly, 2026 is likely to follow the chart’s transition from "Panic. Dumping." in late 2025 to "Absorbing Surplus Production." This suggests economic stabilization, with low prices encouraging buying, modest growth, and the onset of a recovery—though risks of stagnation or recession persist due to high debt levels, the accelerating collapse of the global USD-based monetary system, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty amid the ongoing World War III.
The year 2025 falls within the series 2025–1969–1913–1857, while 2026 connects to 1970-1914-1858. The "Panic. Dumping" needle pointing to late 2025 is followed by "Low Prices. Buy." needles at the 2026–2027 cusp and the center of the chart, suggesting that 2025 marks the peak of a panic, with 2026 signaling the beginning of a recovery phase. Historically, the 56-year cycle from 1969 (preceding the 1970 recession) to 2025 aligns with a panic, while 1970 showed early signs of recovery. The 9-year sub-cycle from 2017 (a year without a major panic) to 2026 fits the broader pattern of a crisis followed by stabilization.
Accordingly, 2026 is likely to follow the chart’s transition from "Panic. Dumping." in late 2025 to "Absorbing Surplus Production." This suggests economic stabilization, with low prices encouraging buying, modest growth, and the onset of a recovery—though risks of stagnation or recession persist due to high debt levels, the accelerating collapse of the global USD-based monetary system, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty amid the ongoing World War III.
