2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'

In J.M. Funk's chart of the "56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression," the year 2025 belongs to the sequence of 1801-1857-1913-1969. This sequence is connected by a long clock hand or needle to the center of the chart, labeled "Panic. Dumping." 

 

2025 in the 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.

(J.M. Funk's original chart of 1932, redrawn by David Williams, 1982)

 

» A knowledge of the present and history is therefore a key to the future. Until Government Standards are based upon the recognition of exterior forces (which govern human conduct) history will repeat itself. THE CHART WILL PREDICT THE FUTURE because the human make-up includes, aspiration, greed, intemperance, fickleness, etc., which traits are governed by endurance; 

endurance is governed by exterior forces which fluctuate in rhythm and tempo 

as constantly as the Sun in its journey through the heavens. «  

James Morris Funk, 1932.

 

• The Panic of 1801 marked the end of the first phase of the Napoleonic Wars and brought an abrupt halt to the prosperity the US had been experiencing from the carrying trade. Stock prices on the NYSE fell by about 25%.
• The Panic of 1857 was caused by bank failures, railroad overextension, and falling commodity prices, leading to a financial collapse. The stock market lost about 30%, and numerous businesses and banks failed. The crisis resulted in a severe recession, which lasted until 1859.
• The Panic of 1913-14 was triggered by the Balkan Wars (1912-13), which foreshadowed war among Europe's major powers. This resulted in a gradual liquidation of US securities by European investors, culminating in a 40% loss by August 1914, when the NYSE closed for four months.

 

 DJIA (daily closes) 1912-1915.

• Throughout 1969, the S&P 500 continued to decline from its November 29, 1968 peak, falling by 37% to its low on May 25, 1970 (18 months)—marking the worst bear market since 1937-38.  

 

  DJIA (daily bars) 1965-1973.

 Through the 9-year subcycle, 2025 is also related to 2016, 2007, 1998, etc. 

 

There are two other long needles extending from the center of Funk's chart, pointing to the sequences 1817-1873-1929-1985 and 1837-1893-1949-2005: According to Funk, in each 56-year period three major panic periods occur at 20-20-16 year intervals.  

 

So, was there a panic or significant decline in 1985? No. The DJIA closed the year up by 28%. But then in fact, 2005 was the first "fifth year" of any decade in the history of the DJIA to close in the negative, with a shocking decline of 0.6%. Since the 1880s, the fifth year in each Decennial Cycle has been, on average, the most profitable year of the entire cycle, and this pattern may well repeat itself in 2025 as well. The best argument against a positive outlook for 2025 is the fact that the US stock markets have already surpassed the crest of the 42-month cycle, which is expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2026.

 

 Dow Jones industrial Average 1985 and 2005 (weekly bars).

Then there is this needle from the outer white ring, pointing to 2024, with the label "High Prices. Sell Save" (which corresponds to the major high of November 29, 1968 and, as expected, a major high in December 2024), and another needle from the inner white ring, pointing to around the cusp of 2026-2027 is labeled "Low Prices. Buy" (which corresponds to the January and May 1970 major lows in the S&P 500 – for more details, see the monthly chart below).

 

Since the 1760s, all major financial crises in the US and Western Europe have consistently clustered around Funk's 56-Year Cycle and its subcycles, which all appear to be closely connected to Moon-Sun tidal harmonics. David Williams concluded: "The results show conclusively that regardless of wars, rebellions, population changes, industrialization, technological, and monetary changes, American business has been dominated by a 56-year rhythm." 

 

The 56-Year Pattern of American Business Activity since 1761 vs. Planetary Cycles & Table with the

Accuracy of Major Planetary Aspects of the Jupiter-Uranus Cycle and the Jupiter Saturn Cycle at 

Business Cycle Turning Points 1929-1982 (Williams, 1982).

  

However, also note that the projections of the Four Year Presidential Cycle (see also HERE), the Decennial Cycle (see also HERE), and the Benner Cycle present distinctly different scenarios and outcomes for 2025 and the coming years. And, by the way, BlackRock just canceled the Business Cycle.

 

Reference:

J.M. Funk (1932) - The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published. Ottawa. IL.

LCdr. David Williams (1947) - Rhythmic Cycles in American Business. 

LCdr. David Williams (1959) - Astro-Economics.
LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology. 

 David McMinn (1997) - The Sun, the Moon, and the Number 56.

David McMinn (1999) - Astrology and the 9/56 Year Cycle. 

David McMinn (2018) - 9/56-Year Cycle and Financial Panics. 

David McMinn (2019) - J.M. Funk and the 9/56 Year Cycle.

Lars von Thienen (2022) - Cycles of Financial Crisis: Using Long Term Static Cycle Models. (video)

 

 S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.
December 11, 1968 to December 11, 2024 = (365.2422 * 56) = 20,454 days apart.

Blue line = S&P 500 daily closes shifted forward 20,454 days = Funk Cycle.

  S&P 500 Index (monthly bars) 1966 - 1972.

» Throughout 1969, the NYSE continued to decline from its December 1968 peak 

[= December 2024], falling by 37% to its low in May 1970 [= May 2027]. «

See also: 

TPR (2015) - 2015 in J.M. Funk’s 56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression.

Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

TPR (2022) - Periods When to Make Money: Samuel Benner's Cycle Projection into 2026 High.
TPR (2012) - 2025 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table (1784 - 2121).

 

Google Search Result: "Funk Cycle"

2015 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'

In 1932, J.M. Funk (1892-1941), an American aviation engineer, introduced his concept of a Cycle of Prosperity and Depression, proposing a 56-year cycle in US economic activity. Although this concept garnered some attention during his lifetime, it was largely overlooked by mainstream economists and academia. Funk considered the cycle so significant that he delivered numerous lectures and published a pamphlet, The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity, to promote his theory. While the cycle might have faded into obscurity, it was revived through the writings of financial astrologer LCdr. David Williams (1947, 1959, 1982), who extensively discussed Funk's work, helping to bring the theory to a broader audience. Funk was one of the few individuals to predict both the economic upheavals of the early 1930s and the subsequent recoveries in 1933 and 1935. David Williams recounts: 

"During the mid-1930’s, a Middle Western cable manufacturer came into the author’s office in New York and presented him with a pamphlet on Philocracy, written in 1932 by J. M. Funk of Ottowa, Illinois in which the latter propounded a theory of Economic Cycles, which he stated are, “a series of events (produced by ‘cause and effect’) which recur in the same order.” [...] Funk stated: “A knowledge of the present and history is therefore a key to the future. Until Government Standards are based upon the recognition of exterior forces (which govern human conduct) history will repeat itself. THE CHART WILL PREDICT THE FUTURE because the human make-up includes, aspiration, greed, intemperance, fickleness, etc., which traits are governed by endurance; endurance is governed by exterior forces which fluctuate in rhythm and tempo as constantly as the Sun in its journey through the heavens.” The author redrew Funk's chart [...], which was used to illustrate a lecture delivered April 16, 1947 at the Henry George School of Social Science, New York. The results show conclusively that regardless of wars, rebellions, population changes, industrialization, technological, and monetary changes, American business has been dominated by a 56-year rhythm. In each 56-year period three major panic periods occur at 20-20-16 year intervals. While other panic periods intervene, no discernible pattern is evidenced."

 Reference:
J.M. Funk (1932) - The 56-Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published. Ottawa. IL.

LCdr. David Williams (1947) - Rhythmic Cycles in American Business. 

LCdr. David Williams (1959) - Astro-Economics.
LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology.

 

 » [J.M. Funk] claims that February 6, 1933, will be the date for a definite improvement

in business and general economic conditions in the United States. «

  

 La Salle Post Tribune

Monday, January 9, 1933
 

Depression Ends February 6 Says Ottawa Man Here

'Philocracy' is the title of an address that will be made before the Illinois Valley Manufacturers' Club and Chamber of Commerce membership Tuesday noon by J.M. Funk of Ottawa, statistician, inventor, and manufacturer, who has reduced the cycles of prosperity and depression to a mathematical basis and claims that February 6, 1933, will be the date for a definite improvement in business and general economic conditions in the United States. 

 

 The stock market actually reached what is today considered the low point of the 

Great Depression in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday, February 8, 1933.

Manufacturers' Club Hears Unusual Economic Analysis Given by J.M. Funk

It is not a mystic or fortune-telling device but a practical aid to business, with a dramatic appeal that carries with it a message of courage and optimism. In adopting the title of 'Philocracy,' the inventor explains that the new thought being advanced by the "technocrats" and "economists" leaves the average citizen and businessman in a state of confusion, while 'Philocracy' is based on facts and strives for sound and reasonable conclusions. The cyclical regularity of prosperity and depression is demonstrated as occurring every fifty-six years, regardless of every obstacle and in spite of them. Reports from Ottawa men who have heard this address explain 'Philocracy' as one of the most interesting and fascinating propositions they have studied. It is said to be entirely different from all other forms of thought on business. Mr. Funk especially invites the interest of men and women who are students of government, business, philosophy, and higher mathematics to check his conclusions against the historical records of this nation over the past one hundred and fifty years. He encourages them to observe the sequence of parallels that apply to business, just as they do to bridge building, steam engines, airplanes, or any other type of engineering.

 

 James Morris Funk, 1933.

The nation's depression will officially end on February 8, with a minor reaction, followed by a major reaction on March 19, J.M. Funk, Ottawa disciple of 'Philocracy,' told members of the Manufacturers' Club and the La Salle Chamber of Commerce at a joint luncheon meeting today. Basing his statement on a formula he had prepared using every possible figure in the economic structure of the nation, Funk declared that periods of depression follow in regular intervals of 56 years. With that information in hand, Funk predicted that 1949 would be a panic year, due to the fact that bonds, debentures, war costs, and other payments were coming due that year.

 

Proved by Charts, Claims Funk

“The chart,” Funk declared, “proves beyond question that humanity does and will not profit by experience; that everything in economics is governed by cause and effect, action and reaction. The chart further proves that panic and depression are the result of production setting a pace that consumption cannot follow. It will be noted that after 56 years each economic event is repeated. Bound up in this lapse of time are indicated the governing forces of human endurance, both mental and physical, which are then manifested by new living standards, customs, and manners. A study of the year-to-year accumulation of surplus production will demonstrate that these cycles repeat, proving that economic patterns are consistent over time. The economic cycle is a chain of unbroken cause and effect events, which, when transposed into common expressions, occur in the order: Depression produces thrift; thrift produces confidence; confidence produces investment; investment produces activity, and activity is prosperity; continued prosperity produces easy credit, easy credit produces over-production; over-production produces fictitious sales and such fictitious sales produce fictitious collateral; fictitious collateral produces an economic structure of fictitious paper value. When the structure is so recognized, it is abandoned. Panic prevails and depression is produced. The depth of depression depends upon the magnitude to which the fictitious condition expanded. Until a financing basis is inaugurated to govern each endeavor, the scientific diversification is workable. The demand for referendums is heeded and facilitated. So long as the organized minorities control legislation, the political payrolls are in excess of services required or efficiency rendered, labor, organized or otherwise, is unscientifically compensated. So long as there be dabbles in countries of different general standards, so long as bonds and debentures are destined to mature regardless of coincidence with other maturities, so long as the government competes with business, then, just that long will memory repeat itself."

 

Covered 118 Years

Funk took his figures over a period of 115 years. First, he noted when the first panic was noted. The panics of 1873 and 1920 followed at 56-year intervals. He said that a depression was due in 1913 but was forestalled by the war and the consequent expenditure of moneys by foreign countries for war munitions. "Depressions," Funk said, "are periods of industrial stagnation when surplus productions are used. We may expect the peak of our market prices in October, 1936, the same as the peak was reached in 1897 before the 1903 crash. In 1817, when canal construction was being financed, leaders described the expenditure of money as wild orgies of speculation; again in 1873, when much money was spent in financing the construction of transcontinental railroads, the same expression was used, and in 1929, William Randolph Hearst expressed himself similarly." Funk was accompanied to the meeting by L. C. Carroll, secretary of the Ottawa Chamber of Commerce, who introduced the speaker. His statements produced an unusual effect on the gathering, who came to attend in a doubting frame of mind, but left with entirely different feelings.