2026 High in the Benner Cycle | "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds"

"Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" was authored by Samuel T. Benner and first published in 1875. Benner was an Ohio farmer who, after suffering heavy losses during the Panic of 1873, became intensely interested in the recurring patterns of economic booms and busts. 

 

 » Periods When to Make Money. «  Original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co., 1872.

Through his studies, he identified repeating 8-9-10, 16-18-20, and 27-year cycles that he believed aligned with both lunar cycles, solar activity, and major economic turning points. According to analyses of historical events, his forecasts achieved roughly 90% accuracy (more background HERE). For 2025, Benner’s cycle predicted the US stock market driving higher. For 2026, Benner's chart forecasts a major stock market top: "High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds" into 2032 ["Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a Good Time to Buy Stocks"].   

 » "B." [2026] Years of Good Times. High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds. «  

  

Benner Cycle Forecast for the Period 2015–2035.

In Benner's projection 2026 is marked as a "B" phase year — a peak of high prices and euphoria, often the culmination of a bull market before a shift to downturns. Historical "B" peaks have aligned (often within 1-2 years) with major tops like: 1929 (Great Depression peak), 2000 (dot-com bubble), 2007 (pre-2008 crisis), and others. 2026 is the final peak year, and should be followed by underperformance or bearish conditions into 2032.

 

 

Martin Armstrong contends that Benner’s cycle is more a historical curiosity than a reliable predictive tool, noting that it has been both right and wrong many times: 

 

The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart [above] that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the Wall Street Journal in 1933.

 

Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.

Martin Armstrong, August 30, 2025.

 

See also: 

TPR (2022) - "Periods When to Make Money" | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low. 

Early Global Commodity Supercycle: Top Investment Picks | Andrew Hoese

Commodity Supercycles are long-term, decade-spanning periods of sustained above-average price surges, driven by major demand shocks—such as industrialization, energy transition, and urbanization—alongside supply constraints and geopolitical shifts. Notable past cycles include 1896–1920 (US industrialization), the 1970s (oil crises), and 2000–2014 (China’s rise). 

 

Gold-S&P 500 Ratio (monthly closes, 1925 to October 2025).

» There is an early breakout in Gold versus the S&P 500, a double bottom breaking higher. This signals a shift into a world unlike the past 40 years — a transition from an era of declining interest rates to one of rising rates. That creates different money flows. Money is no longer flowing mainly into bond and stock markets; instead, it is increasingly moving into precious metals, mining companies, and commodities. This marks the beginning of an outperformance of commodities and precious metals over traditional financial assets. «

Today, advancements in AI, digitization, electric vehicles, robotics, the emergence of thousands of new data centers, other technologies, and the relentless rise of BRICS+ are set to fuel an unprecedented surge in energy demand, including coal, oil, gas, hydrogen, nuclear, geothermal, solar, and more. Urgent grid overhauls and expansions will drive a massive increase in demand for key metals such as lithium, nickel, silver, and copper.
 

The current Commodity Supercycle (2022-2045) is driven by several financial key factors, with interest rates playing a central role. From 1980 to 2021, declining rates favored Bonds and Stocks, creating cup-and-handle patterns in Gold and Silver. Now, the shift to an increasing interest rate environment is disrupting this dynamic, as evidenced by a shoulder-head-shoulder topping pattern in bonds. 

 

When rates hit 4.5-5% on the 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield, stocks are likely to decouple, with rates rising while stocks stagnate or decline. The Dollar (DXY), currently in an uptrend channel, could accelerate commodity gains if it breaks downward. Inflation cycles further shape this landscape: disinflation boosts safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while accelerating inflation drives broader commodity markets. Money printing, such as the significant stimulus in April 2025 (Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act), fuels gold and silver in real-time, with other commodities responding as money flows through the system.

 

 

 Investment Potential Rankings: Commodities and Financial Instruments (October 2025):

Top: Lithium, Coal, Iron Ore. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ: tracks large/mid-cap Brazilian equities for emerging market exposure), VanEck Steel ETF (SLX: tracks global steel sector companies (production, mining, fabrication). Highest potential due to recent bottoms, high historical leverage (50-150x for coal/iron ore, 20x for EWZ), strong breakout patterns, and inflation-sensitive demand (EV/BESS for Lithium, Steel +1.1%). Under-the-radar status maximizes asymmetry.

Mid: Copper, Nickel, Natural Gas, Silver, Platinum, Palladium: Strong performers with breakouts or bottoming patterns; Silver/Platinum have top performer potential but face consolidation or supply risks; Copper near highs but neutral Q4 2025; nickel oversupply concerns.

Low: Oil bearish short-term ($60/bbl YE2025); Gold strong but nearing consolidation, and less leverage than Silver.

Lowest: S&P 500, NASDAQ, Bonds. Financial assets face headwinds from rising rates (4.5-5% disconnect); bonds least attractive due to downtrend and rotation to commodities.

The ongoing and escalating worldwide commodity boom is unfolding in a clear sequence: It began in 2022 with a disinflation phase, where gold and silver led as safe-haven assets, potentially pushing silver prices toward $60-90. Over the next six to twelve months, a transition is expected where gold and silver may consolidate or experience choppy trading (point 7. in the historic long-term fractal).

 

 Platinum-Palladium Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

 Platinum-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

 Platinum-Silver Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

 Copper-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1986 to October 2025).

 

  Oil-Gold Ratio (monthly bars, 1984 to October 2025). 

 

Uranium (monthly bars, 2011 to October 2025): Bullish.

 

During this period, other commodities like Crude Oil and Base Metals, which bottomed in April-May 2025, will begin to gain traction. As the cycle shifts to accelerating inflation, oil and base metals are poised to surge, driven by money rotating out of bonds and stocks into hard assets. 

This mirrors historical patterns, such as the 2018-2020 period when gold rose during a slowdown, followed by oil's sharp rally in August 2020 after gold consolidated. The current cycle aligns with the 2001-2008 commodity bull market, characterized by a declining dollar and strong commodity outperformance against financial assets, as signaled by gold's breakout against the S&P 500.

 

In 2025, Precious Metals are surging, with gold and silver both up over 60% year-to-date and mining stocks nearly doubling in value. Technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. Notably, spot silver has climbed above $50, showing backwardation against futures prices around $48.70, indicating strong physical demand and potential discrepancies between paper and physical markets.

 

Certain commodities are poised to lead in performance. Gold is a key leader but not the top performer; Silver and Platinum are expected to outshine it, with silver potentially reaching $300 based on historical fractals from the 1940s to 1980s. 

 

Platinum, currently at a 0.4 ratio to gold, could revert to its historical mean of 1.2-2x gold’s price, with potential to hit 5.5-6x as seen in the early 1900s. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper (nearing all-time highs), Steel (breaking out), Iron Ore, Nickel, and Lithium (up 100-300% from bottoms) are also strong contenders. 

 

Platinum-Gold Ratio currently 0.41 (gold/platinum 2.44) as of October 2025, with platinum at $975/oz, gold $3975/oz. Historical: Platinum premium (up to 6.63:1 in 1968) until late 1990s due to industrial demand (catalysts, auto); low 0.05 in 1885. Fluctuations from supply disruptions (South Africa/Russia mines), financial crises, geopolitical tensions, inflation fears; gold safe-haven spikes ratio in downturns (e.g., 2.3x in 2020, 3.1x Feb 2025).

Coal and Iron Ore offer high leverage, with potential for 50-150x gains as seen in the 2000s bull market, making them prime investment targets. Emerging markets like Brazil, through ETFs like EWZ, present 20x potential driven by currency exchange rate unwinds, particularly as the dollar weakens.

Historical parallels provide further context. In the 1930s, gold’s revaluation with flat input costs led to massive mining gains. The inflationary 1970s and 2000s resemble today’s environment, while the 1940s-80s increasing rate cycle mirrors current conditions, with silver moving from consolidation to a boom. 

 

This is not solely a precious metals bull market but part of a broader commodity and hard assets cycle. To maximize returns in the current commodity cycle, one should have invested in under-the-radar commodities like oil, natural gas, iron ore, nickel, and copper between April and May 2025, when they formed quiet bottoms—evident in patterns like inverted head-and-shoulders and double bottoms—before gaining mainstream attention. 

 

These assets, now moving higher, offered significant asymmetry as smart money positioned early, capitalizing on low public interest. For those yet to invest, opportunities remain in inflation-sensitive commodities like steel, coal, and lithium, which are breaking out or showing early uptrends, particularly as the dollar weakens and money flows from bonds and stocks. 

 

Reference:
Andrew Hoese (October 11, 2025) - Early Commodity Cycle: Top Investment Picks. (video) 

 

Commodity Supercycles from 1805 to 2045.

A rotation from Gold back to the Dow might be most prudent if/when inflation-adjusted DJI retreats

back to its 2000 level, which could take many years.  For now, we are right at the upper rail.

The Great Rotation out of Paper Assets into Hard Assets: 
The biggest Bull Market of our Lifetimes is underway.

Gold entering the parabolic phase of the Debt/Fiat collapse.
Moves that took years to unfold now happen in Months/Weeks.

 

Copper: The new oil for this century.

Palladium: Now joining the party. Target $3,430.

 

Platinum: Bullish. First target above $3k. 

 

Silver: A chart pattern that has taken five decades to form.

A generational set-up unfolding. Go long and stay long. 

 

An epic Silver fractal is playing out. 

  

162-Year, 54-Year, and 18-Year cycles in Silver from 1802 to 2025 (quarterly closes, log scale). 

 

The global financial shift isn’t coming—it’s already here. Gold. Silver. BRICS. De-dollarization. Geopolitics and geoeconomics now underpin the unfolding of the next great global commodity supercycle: escalating US–China rivalries, supply-chain fractures, and rising WW3 risks accelerate the decline of the United States’ 250-year empire-life cycle while cementing China’s ascent. 

 

Collapsing US stock indices–to–gold ratios reveal deep monetary stress, aligning with inflationary, interest-rate, and commodity-cycle dynamics that signal dollar devaluation and the breakdown of the post–World War II global financial system. The Great Rotation out of paper assets—equities and bonds—into hard, tangible assets is igniting what the charts suggest will become the greatest commodity bull market of our lifetimes.

 

Wealth preservation now hinges on tangible inflation hedges—metals such as lithium, copper, and nickel; precious metals including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium; and energy assets spanning coal, oil, gas, hydrogen, nuclear, geothermal, and solar. Avoid rate-sensitive exposure in US stock indices, and bonds; instead, accumulate undervalued, cash-flow-rich commodity producers and physical holdings to capture asymmetric, real-asset returns into around 2040.

 

See also:

TPR (October 9, 2025) - The Dow-to-Gold Ratio (DJI/XAU) Collapses: Get Ready for Tangible Assets.

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

The 18 Year Economic Cycle │Akhil Patel

Akhil Patel was the special guest presenter at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles' June 3 'Masters Working Group' interactive session. Author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage', Patel discusses how the 18 year cycle affects the markets and how it can transform investing strategies. Patel is one of the world’s leading experts in economic, financial, and property cycles. He has been working for over a decade to produce unique research that combines an in- depth understanding of business, real estate, and stock market cycles. 

 

Reference:
Akhil Patel (June 4, 2024) - Significance of the 18-Year Cycle. (video)

 

See also:
The 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle.  

2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table.

"Periods When to Make Money" | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low

Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set out to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy.

 

» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains 

between 1872 and 1939 would have been 50 times your losses! «

 Edward R. Dewey, 1967.

Samuel Benner Cycle Forecast 2015–2035.

In 1875 he published a book called "Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:

A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).

 

Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).

 

 » Periods When to Make Money «  - The original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co. 

The diagram was apparently compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but Samuel Benner did not attribute it to him in 1875.

 

The "Periods When to Make Money" chart, attributed to George Tritch’s Hardware Co. in 1872, is a fascinating artifact in the history of financial cycle analysis. This chart, often referred to as the Benner Cycle due to Samuel Benner’s 1875 publication "Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices," attempts to predict market cycles by identifying periods of panic, prosperity, and low prices. The controversy over its origin—whether it was truly Tritch’s creation in 1872 or popularized by Benner in 1875—highlights an interesting debate about attribution and influence in early financial forecasting.

Tritch’s business card, reportedly compiled in 1872, predates Benner’s book, suggesting he may have been the original architect of the cycle model. The chart categorizes market phases into three types: panic years (A), good times for selling (B), and hard times for buying (C), with cycles of 16/18/20 years for panics, 8/9/10 years for peaks, and shorter cycles for bottoms. Its simplicity and alleged predictive power, reportedly aligning with events like the Great Depression, the Dot-com Bubble, and the 2008 Financial Crisis, have kept it relevant among some investors, despite skepticism about its scientific basis.

 

However, Benner’s 1875 publication, which expanded on these ideas and tied them to commodity price cycles (e.g., 11-year cycles for corn and pigs, 27-year cycles for pig iron), gained more prominence, possibly overshadowing Tritch’s earlier work. Benner’s focus on solar cycles and planetary influences, as noted in some analyses, adds a layer of financial astrology that critics argue lacks empirical rigor. This has led to mixed views: some praise the chart’s historical accuracy, claiming a 7,939% return from 1872 to 2020, while others, like David McMinn, note its declining reliability post-1870s, with false predictions in 1965 and 1999.

 

The lack of attribution by Benner to Tritch raises questions about intellectual credit, possibly due to the chart’s informal distribution on a business card rather than a formal publication. This oversight, intentional or not, underscores the chaotic nature of early financial theory development, where ideas often spread through informal channels. The chart’s enduring appeal lies in its simplicity and cyclical view of markets, resonating with those seeking patterns in economic chaos, but its reliance on outdated assumptions (e.g., planetary influences) and inconsistent accuracy suggest it’s more a historical curiosity than a reliable tool. Modern investors are better served by combining such models with robust data-driven strategies, as the chart’s performance significantly trails a simple buy-and-hold approach ($5,432 vs. $62,414 from 1904 to 2023).

  

Reference:

 George Tritch (1872) - "Periods When to Make Money" - Business Card of George Tritch Hardware Co.

Samuel Benner (1884) - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices (3rd. Ed.; original 1875)

 W.D. Gann (1909) - Financial Time Table 1784 - 2102

Edward R. Dewey (1967) - The Case for Cycles 

Elwynn Taylor (2004) - Crop Weather Cycles: Myth or Reality?

Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028

Charles Capriole (2020) - George Tritch Strategy from 1872 has a 90% hit rate
David McMinn (2022) - Benner Cycles & the 9/56 year grid

David Hickson (Oct 3, 2022) - The Next 20 Weeks - S&P 500 - Hurst Cycles Market Update
Lars von  Thienen (Oct 9, 2022) - Market Cycles Report - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models.

TPR (2015) - Future Ups and Downs into 2065. Samuel Benner’s Prophecies.

 

 The Tritch/Benner Strategy generated a return of 7,939% from 1872 to 2020.

SPX vs 4.5 Degree Steps of Lunar Node to Lunar Apogee | 80th Harmonic

Upcoming aspects in this 18 Year Cycle:
Feb 04 (Sat) = 85.5 degrees, Mar 14 (Tue) =  90 degrees, Apr 13 (Thu), May 07 (Sun), May 26 (Fri),
Jun 19 (Mon), Jul 16 (Sun), Aug 22 (Tue), Sep 25 (Mon), Oct 21 (Sat), Nov 12 (Sun), Dec 02 (Sat),
Dec 26 (Tue), 2018 Jan 29 (Mon) = 144 degrees. See also HERE

SPX vs 15 Degree Steps of Lunar Node to Lunar Apogee | 24th Harmonic

Upcoming aspects in this 18 Year Cycle:
Jan 12 (Thu) = 165 degrees, Mar 14 (Tue) = 180 degrees, Apr 28 (Fri), Jun 04 (Sun), Jul 16 (Sun),
Sep 17 (Sun), Oct 28 (Sat), Dec 02 (Sat), Jan 15, 2018 (Mon).

David McMinn (2016): 9/56 Year Cycle: Lunar North Node - Apogee Angles [5 p.]

DJIA vs 18 Year Cycle | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 16, 2016) - The peak of the 18 year cycle should be
expected sometimes in late January early February 2017 (see also HERE)

Share Prices from 1509 to 2016 | Tide in the Affairs of Men

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

William Shakespeare | Julius Caesar: Act 4, Scene 3, 218 – 224.

High Resolution *.pdf HERE | Source: HERE

The Pattern of US Bankruptcies | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 22, 2016) - I found an interesting pattern in the Gold Miner's index. I realized that at the beginning of the previous two Kondratieff waves the US had defaulted on their obligations. This is the reason why a human brain is superior to spectral analysis, we tend to spot patterns earlier. In 1933 the US Treasury was official declared bankrupt after the emergency banking act was voted into law by congress. "The Emergency Banking Act succeeded in abrogating America’s gold standard and hypothecated all property found within the United States to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank." This bankruptcy occurred after world war one as visible on the picture above. The Vietnam war was the culprit of the second American bankruptcy with the closing of the Gold window in 1971 by president Nixon. So much money was printed to fund the war that there was no way the US could redeem holders of US dollar with Gold at the pegged rate of $35 an ounce. We once again have the same pattern recurring at the time of writing. We had the Iraq/Afghanistan war the debt of which has become to big of a burden to service and history will once again repeat with yet another bankruptcy in a few short years. This will obviously have a devastating impact on the entire world since US Treasuries are the largest single asset that people own world wide. I wonder how China will react to such a bankruptcy but I guess only time will tell. I am so certain that this is going to occur not only because of the pattern that we see on the Gold Miner's index but that of Donald Trump's upcoming presidency. 

I analyzed all the similar cyclical circumstances and under all of them the president of the United States was a republican. Those cyclical circumstances include 1861, 1881, 1971 and 2001. This gives us reason to believe that without question the next president of the United States will be Donald J. Trump. We can also look at Hillary Clinton's history to discern if she is likely to make it to the White House. First, We know that the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 54 month wave saw Hillary Clinton lose in the primaries against Obama. We also know that she lost against Obama once again in the similar cyclical position in terms of the 9 year cycle. We also know that she left the White House in the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 18 year cycle. Now that we are certain that Donald J Trump will win the election we can combine that with what we have discerned from the Gold Miner's index with his history of Bankruptcies. Donald Trump filed for bankruptcy a total of 6 times the last of which was in 2009. W.D. Gann said that the highest correlations occur with the most recent similar cyclical circumstance. The 2009 low is expected to reoccur in 2017 and hence we can expect a bankrupt United States government before the end of next year or the year after at the latest.

Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office (HERE)

Financial Crisis and Market Panics | From 1500 to the Present

Source: @Stock_Trend_Chg

German DAX: Gloom, Boom and Doom | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 02, 2016) - There is no question in most commentator's minds that the growth in Germany has certainly slowed relative to what this great country has enjoyed in the 20th century […] The reason for my post about Germany is because the first domino to fall in the upcoming financial calamity seems to be Deutsche Bank […] The upcoming calamity is not going to be like 2008 which was merely a correction of the 18 year cycle. The decline is likely […] of the 324 year cycle and will make 2008 seem like a tiny little hick up within the unraveling of a much larger cycle correction.

[…] The German DAX is likely to not only decline but have an outright collapse of a magnitude not witnessed in our lives. The S&P/DAX ratio is in favor of the S&P which suggests that we are likely to see a larger decline in Germany. 

German Stocks In Trend Limbo
Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr.

Dubai Financial Market Index: 70% Decline Expected | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 01, 2016) - As visible the immediate projection for the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) is a similar catastrophe as 2008! This would mean that the money to be spent on the new projects and on the infrastructure for the Expo 2020 is certainly not enough to keep the economy going. Our conservative projection is a 70% decline from current levels despite all the money being spent. The world expo in Dubai will occur at a time when the global economy will be at distress and hence revenues will likely not make up for the costs of hosting the event and will most likely lead to another Dubai debt crisis. 

 

In April 2006 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presented the above close-up of two "Skyscraper" tip-offs [Malaysia's Petronas Towers and Taiwan's Taipei 101] and wrote: "Everything points to a similar fate in Dubai", and that Burj Dubai would "open its doors in the aftermath of the bull market that gave rise to its creation".

New Insights in Commodities | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Jul 1, 2016) - The first chart is a synthetic chart of commodities. The way it was constructed was by isolating the second 18 year cycle of three 54 year cycle. The reason why I extracted the second 18 year cycle is because this is the cycle we are in right now in terms of commodities hence it should be correlated more with its counterpart in past 54 year cycles. I have also altered the length of the cycles to match the current average length of the 18 year cycle which is approximately 14.4 years. I then combined those cycles together in order to get a continuous series so I can isolate the cycle via spectral analysis and run neural network models on this particular position of the Kondratieff wave. The indicator that you see above is a neural network model with an 14.4 year cycle used as an input and the detrended zigzag as the output. This indicator's turning point should mimic those in the future provided that no significant changes occur to the length of the nominal 18 year wave. The second chart depicts the dates more clearly.

It is worth mentioning that the 14.4 year cycle with 4 harmonics was used as the input rather than just one harmonic, the reason for this was to aid us in depicted the peaks and troughs of the cycles smaller than the 14.4 year wave. As is visible on the chart above, we seem to have a clear path in the CRB index until late 2017. The projection also suggests that 2018 is likely to be a bad year for commodities. This correction should then be followed by a move into 4th quarter of 2020 followed by a correction to 2022 and so on (third chart).

In the neural network model below the price chart is an up percentage move indicator (fourth chart). It is calculated by having the cycle as an input and measuring the position of moves of over 7% a month and projecting something similar for the future of the current cycle. The likelihood of large percentage months on a closing basis is greatest from here going into mid 2019. Hence capital is best allocated in the commodity market now rather than chase the move after most of the large percentage gains have already been realized (fourth chart).

This indicator (fourth chart) is a forecast of the volatility index indicator using the same input as the charts above. It seems evident that the likelihood of high volatility is greatest from now going into 2020. This would mean that the purchase of call options are likely to be a better play than their sale in the upcoming environment. Trading in expectation of low volatility will probabalisticly lead to a loss going into 2020.