History of US Unemployment Rate

Source: Joseph Lavorgna, Deutsche Bank.

Top 0.1% Of American Households Hold Same Wealth As Bottom 90%

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The US has a serious inequality problem according to a huge study by Credit Suisse: The top 0.1% of households now hold about the same amount of wealth as the bottom 90%. The Gini coefficient is a measurement of the income distribution within a country that aims to show the gap between the rich and the poor. The number ranges from zero to one, with zero representing perfect equality (everyone has the same income) and one representing perfect inequality (one person earns the entire country’s income and everyone else has nothing). A higher Gini coefficient means greater inequality. Developed-market economies such as those in Germany, France, and Sweden tend to have a higher GDP per capita and lower Gini coefficients. On the flip side, emerging-market economies in countries like Russia, Brazil, and South Africa tend to have a lower GDP per capita but a higher Gini coefficient.

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The US, however, is a big outlier. Its GDP per capita is on par with developed European countries like Switzerland and Norway, but its Gini coefficient is in the same tier as Russia’s and China’s. On a global scale just 0.7% of the world's adult population owns almost half of the world's wealth, while the bottom 73% have less than $10,000 each. The 3.5 billion adults with wealth below $10,000 account for 2.4% of global wealth. In contrast, the 33 million millionaires comprise less than 1% of the adult population, but own 46% of household wealth. The past year saw a slight increase in the number of US dollar millionaires and high net worth individuals, with Japan the main beneficiary due to appreciation of the yen. 

The top tiers of the wealth pyramid – covering individuals with net worth above $100,000 – comprised 5% of all adults at the turn of the century. The proportion rose rapidly until the financial crisis, but has remained quite stable since that time. It currently comprises 8.2% of the global total, exactly the same as in mid-2015. The US, home to 41% of the world's millionaires, dominates the wealth league tables, while the UK had a terrible year in dollar terms. Britain lost by far the greatest number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals – those with more than $50 million – down 700 to 4,700. The UK also lost the most amount of millionaires, down by 422,000 to 2,225,000 people. Because the data is denominated in dollars, the pound's 18% collapse after the vote to leave the European Union will have driven a lot of the change. 

German DAX: Gloom, Boom and Doom | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 02, 2016) - There is no question in most commentator's minds that the growth in Germany has certainly slowed relative to what this great country has enjoyed in the 20th century […] The reason for my post about Germany is because the first domino to fall in the upcoming financial calamity seems to be Deutsche Bank […] The upcoming calamity is not going to be like 2008 which was merely a correction of the 18 year cycle. The decline is likely […] of the 324 year cycle and will make 2008 seem like a tiny little hick up within the unraveling of a much larger cycle correction.

[…] The German DAX is likely to not only decline but have an outright collapse of a magnitude not witnessed in our lives. The S&P/DAX ratio is in favor of the S&P which suggests that we are likely to see a larger decline in Germany. 

German Stocks In Trend Limbo
Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr.

Deutsche Bank Derivative Exposure = 5 x Eurozone GDP

ZeroHedge (Feb 3, 2016) - Time to panic about Deutsche Bank?

The exposure of Deutsche Bank to its derivatives portfolio is a stunning EUR 64 Trillion, which is 16 times the GDP of Germany and roughly 5 times the GDP of the entire Eurozone! And to put things in perspective, the TOTAL government debt of the US government is 1/3rd of Deutsche Bank’s exposure - impossible for any government to bail out Deutsche Bank should things go terribly wrong.

Most Commodities Historically Cheap

Many of the commodities seem to have had a consistently decreasing real price prior to the last 100 years. Commodities that look particularly cheap are generally agricultural ones while the more industrial based commodities seem to be at the more expensive end of history, in part fueled by significant demand from China over the past decade. This is particularly true when looking at data over the past 100 years. Precious metals also look expensive from a historical stand-point, which probably reflects the post-1971 fiat currency regime we currently operate in. One of the problems with this analysis is that the importance of these commodities changes over time as does the cost of mining them. Source: Deutsche Bank (2015)  - Long-Term Asset Return Study.

The Rise and Fall of Modern Empires

America’s global economic dominance has been declining since 1998, well before the Global Financial Crisis. A large part of this decline has actually had little to do with the actions of the US but rather with the unraveling of a century’s long economic anomaly. China has begun to return to the position in the global economy it occupied for millenia before the industrial revolution.

In 1950 China’s share of the world’s population was 29%, its share of world economic output (on a PPP basis) was about 5%. By contrast the US was almost the reverse, with 8% of the world’s population the US commanded 28% of its economic output. By 2008, China’s huge, centuries-long economic underperformance was well down the path of being overcome. Based on current trends China’s economy will overtake America’s in purchasing power terms within the next few years. The US is now no longer the world’s sole economic superpower and indeed its share of world output (on a PPP basis) has slipped below the 20% level which we have seen was a useful sign historically of a single dominant economic superpower. In economic terms we already live in a bipolar world. Between them the US and China today control over a third of world output (on a PPP basis). Source: Deutsche Bank (2015)  - Long-Term Asset Return Study.

Peak Everything: Bonds - Equity - Real Estate

Credits: Deutsche Bank

Looking at three of the most important assets (bonds, equities and housing) across 15 DM countries, with data often stretching back two centuries, we are currently close to peak valuation levels relative to history. Indeed when aggregated, current levels are higher on average across the three asset classes than they were back in 2007/08 and certainly higher than in 2000. At the equity market peak back in the summer months of 2015 we were pretty much at the peak. Source: Deutsche Bank (2015)  - Long-Term Asset Return Study.

China bigger Risk than Lehman, Greece, US Fiscal Problems?

Source: Torsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank Securities - found @ Barry Ritholtz

Hitting the Fan | Deutsche Bank in Pre-Infarct State of Imminent Bankruptcy

On June 7, immediately following Greece’s missed payment to the IMF,
Deutsche Bank’s two CEOs announce their surprise departure from the
company (HERE)

Deutsche Bank is the 12th biggest bank worldwide and harbours USD 75 trillion in derivatives bets — an amount twenty times greater than the German GDP (USD 3.64 trillion in 2014). Deutsche Bank is the world’s largest  holder of derivatives exposure and dwarfs J.P. Morgan’s exposure by USD 5 trillion (HERE). Deutsche Bank - along other global banks - was engaged in a slew of corrupt practices from manipulation of interest rates (for which the firm was fined USD 2.5 billion in April 2015), to tax evasion and money laundering to “mis-selling” of derivatives. 

If Greece defaults at the end of June, Deutsche Bank will lose 50 to 100 billion Euros in Greek bonds and be caught off-side in its derivatives positions. And there is no government nor institution on earth to bail it out. 
More HERE