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Tuesday, July 15, 2025

S&P 500 Rally Returns to Midpoint of Long-Term Channel | Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 has rallied about 25% in 3 months to hit record highs, which seems impressive. But it is only 2% above the February peak; i.e., over the last 5 months, it is up 5% at an annualized rate. And year-to-date, it is up 6.5%, or 12.5% at an annualized rate. In historical context, these numbers do not stand out.

The S&P 500 has just caught back up to the middle of its post Global Financial Crisis channel,

and price gain so far this year is in line with the long-run median outside of recessions.

The median annual gain for the S&P 500 over the last 100 years is about 11.5%. And if one were to look only at years without recessions, it is 13%; for those with positive returns, the median is a whopping 19.5%. Indeed, the S&P 500 trends upward over time with occasional selloffs, and over the last 15 years—i.e., since the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)—it has been in a strong but wide channel rising at an annual rate of 12.5%. The rally has just taken it back to the middle of this channel, where it was at the February peak.

Deutsche Bank, July 13, 2025.

» Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. «

Since 1980 the median annual drawdown of the S&P 500 is 11% for all years,

and it's the same for election years (red boxes).

» US stock market is among the three most overvalued in 100 years. «

Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle 2024-2027, Ned Davis Research, 2024.

The Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle, 1900–2024.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (July 6, 2025) - The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next?

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern │ Jeff Hirsch

2024 is an Election Year and the sitting President is running for office again.

In this constellation the S&P 500 typically tends to (1.) trend higher from early January into mid February;

(2.) decline into late March; (3.) rise up for the rest of the year, especially after elections.

Also take note of Larry Williams' re-election pattern.

The S&P 500's average annual return during Election Years is 11.6%. Since 1833 the fourth year in the Decennial Pattern has been up 13 vs 6 times down with an average annual return of 5.22%. Over the past 30 years, January gains have occurred 17 times (57%), while losses numbered 13 (43%), barely better than the flip of a coin. In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.

In 1967 Yale Hirsch published the first Stock Trader’s Almanac and presented the Four Year Presidential Election Cycle as an significant and predictive indicator of stock market performance. The outcomes are relatively steady, regardless of the president’s political leanings in office at the time, and the year after each presidential election marks the start of a new four-year stock market cycle. Considering annual returns of each year in the four year cycle, the Pre-Election Year (2023) is considered best, and the Election Year second. The most predictive period of the year is November 19th to January 19th. Wayne Whaley coined it a 'Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer'. If the return of this 2-month period is greater than 3%, a bullish signal is given, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. If the return is 0-3%, the signal is considered neutral; and if the return is negative, the signal is bearish, and returns very poor. Currently the S&P 500 still trades some 6% above the November 19 level.

The 250 year US empire live cycle concluded in 2023. Demise by folly overstretch. Uni-polar global supremacy is over, and Russia, China and Iran stronger than ever. A multi-polar world of worlds now knows how to deal with a paper-tiger gone mad. All star-spangled striped monsters check-mated, defeated and unveiled 24/7 along the many battle fronts on the globe. Project Ukraine lost. Now supervising genocide in Palestine. Yemen's Ansar Allah controls the Bab al-Mandab and launches full front attacks against the hegemon. An emerging Muslim alliance will liberate the Holy Land. Iran may shut down the Gibraltar strait any moment. The Taliban will enter Jerusalem and flatten Tel Aviv. Zionist Saudis and emirs doomed. Revolutionary Shia will root them out. The fever pitch increases. As some discard all this as hysteria and Islamist war propaganda, the dollar hegemony is rapidly melting away under the world island's rising sun. 2024 will be a remarkable 'election year'. W.D. Gann projected 'major panic, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment' into the US of 2024. And US astrologer L. David Linsky sees the home-front ready for more mayhem, upheaval, war and regime change. Plenty of opportunities along the lines and times in the above seasonal roadmap for 2024.

The Kitchin Cycle and the Benner Cycle are bullish for all of 2024 and 2025 (historically the fifth year outperforming all other years in the decennial pattern). In the current decennial cycle Larry Williams identified June 2024 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy stocks until December 2025.