2024 S&P 500 Election Year Seasonal Pattern │ Jeff Hirsch

 2024 is an Election Year and the sitting President is running for office again. 

In this constellation the S&P 500 typically tends to (1.) trend higher from early January into mid February;  

(2.) decline into late March; (3.) rise up for the rest of the year, especially after elections.

Also take note of Larry Williams' re-election pattern.

 

The S&P 500's average annual return during Election Years is 11.6%. Since 1833 the fourth year in the Decennial Pattern has been up 13 vs 6 times down with an average annual return of 5.22%. Over the past 30 years, January gains have occurred 17 times (57%), while losses numbered 13 (43%), barely better than the flip of a coin. In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are tops. In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. More often than not, stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, fall from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.

 

In 1967 Yale Hirsch published the first Stock Trader’s Almanac and presented the Four Year Presidential Election Cycle as an significant and predictive indicator of stock market performance. The outcomes are relatively steady, regardless of the president’s political leanings in office at the time, and the year after each presidential election marks the start of a new four-year stock market cycle. Considering annual returns of each year in the four year cycle, the Pre-Election Year (2023) is considered best, and  the Election Year second. The most predictive period of the year is November 19th to January 19th. Wayne Whaley coined it a 'Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer'. If the return of this 2-month period is greater than 3%, a bullish signal is given, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. If the return is 0-3%, the signal is considered neutral; and if the return is negative, the signal is bearish, and returns very poor. Currently the S&P 500 still trades some 6% above the November 19 level.

 

The 250 year US empire live cycle concluded in 2023. Demise by folly overstretch. Uni-polar global supremacy is over, and Russia, China and Iran stronger than ever. A multi-polar world of worlds now knows how to deal with a paper-tiger gone mad. All star-spangled striped monsters check-mated, defeated and unveiled 24/7 along the many battle fronts on the globe. Project Ukraine lost. Now supervising genocide in Palestine. Yemen's Ansar Allah controls the Bab al-Mandab and launches full front attacks against the hegemon. An emerging Muslim alliance will liberate the Holy Land. Iran may shut down the Gibraltar strait any moment. The Taliban will enter Jerusalem and flatten Tel Aviv. Zionist Saudis and emirs doomed. Revolutionary Shia will root them out. The fever pitch increases. As some discard all this as hysteria and Islamist war propaganda, the dollar hegemony is rapidly melting away under the world island's rising sun. 2024 will be a remarkable 'election year'. W.D. Gann projected 'major panic, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment' into the US of 2024. And US astrologer L. David Linsky sees the home-front ready for more mayhem, upheaval, war and regime change. Plenty of opportunities along the lines and times in the above seasonal roadmap for 2024.

 

 

The Kitchin Cycle and the Benner Cycle are bullish for all of 2024 and 2025 (historically the fifth year outperforming all other years in the decennial pattern). In the current decennial cycle Larry Williams identified June 2024 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy stocks until December 2025.

 

 

 

 

 

In January 2024 the Sensitive Degrees of the Sun are:

Jan 02 (Tue) = Earth at perihelion = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high

The Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer are (+/-1 CD):

Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High

The SoLunar Rhythm during January 2024: 

 

Additional References:
Seth Golden (Dec 26, 2023) @ X

Dimensional (2023) - Market Returns During Election Years.

IsabelNet (Dec 12, 2023) - S&P 500 Day of Month Seasonality Returns 1928 to present.

 

 Last time the S&P 500 was up 9 consecutive weeks was in 2004 and before that two 9-week win streaks in 1989 and in 1994,

before that a 12-week win streak in 1985. The next years' returns were:
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%

2005 = 3%

 

 

Forecasting the NYSE with the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle | L.H. Weston

[...] Diagram A is designed to show the curve of influence produced on stock market prices by the varying angular distances of Jupiter from conjunction or opposition with Saturn. It will be seen that at 0 years and 0°, which is supposed to represent the time of geocentric conjunction and opposition of the planets, the dotted curve, which is our composite price of stock in the 10-year cycle, starts a little below the mean circle; then late in year 1 when distance is about 18° between the planets it goes to maximum height; then drops low in middle of year 3 at 54°; rises to late in year 5 or 90°; drops soon to a little late in the 7th year at 126°; rises slowly to past the 9th year or 162°; lastly, comes to a little below the mean again at 10 years, 180°, same as at beginning. Then at 180° another 10-year cycle starts and repeats this movement, and so on to eternity. It is thus seen, by the dotted curve in this diagram that Jupiter and Saturn cause maximum and minimum prices in the stock market when their geocentric angular distances between each other are about as follows:

 

Max.    Min.
18°    54°
90°    126°
          162°   180° and 0°

 

This dotted curve shows positively that the planetary influence is what we call harmonic, meaning a wave-like motion, fixed in angular position like the crystals of a snow flake (hydrogen at low temperature) with 2 minor axis that join at 72°, as illustrated by the central part of diagram A." [pp. 35-36]

See also HERE

General consensus within the astro-financial community traces the primary development of modern financial astrology to around the 1920s, when W.D. Gann mentioned a planet for the first time in a 1921 Forecasting Course and Professor J.H. Weston self published his breakthrough work 'Forecasting the New York Stock Market' (manuscript, no binding, 47 pages). Also in the early 1920s Sepharial produced most of his known 'Arcana' or 'Keys' to the markets, though he stated in his advertisements that these systems had been in development since 1898. However Professor Weston represents the earliest application of Fourier Sequences to market analysis, by breaking down component cycle waves and combining them to produce a composite model. 

J.H. Weston was a regular contributor to Frederick White's journal 'The Adept' (e.g. HERE) and also one of the first to propose a 'Decennial Cycle' theory, actually with two different versions of the ten year pattern. The first is his computation based on 50 years of data, of a series composed of 14, 20 and 28 months, called the Venus term and based upon the heliocentric system. The second is a sequence which divides the Jupiter-Saturn cycle into 10 irregular parts, but follows the geocentric system. Professor Weston was a great influence on W.D. Gann, implied by his manuscript being locked in Gann's safe, and he may have been the one who introduced Gann to Fourier cycle theory, providing Gann with the foundation for his 10 year cycle with its multiples.

Reference:
L.H. Weston (1921) - Being a Treatise on the Geometrical or Chart System of Forecasting in which is explained the principles of the art, and, in this lesson no. 1, giving demonstration with the price curve of potatoes in U.S. 

The Adept - The American Journal of Astrology (V20 N10 Oct 1920 - V21 N9 Sep 1921)