Seasonal Odds Favor S&P 500 Gains Next Week (May 2–9) | Wayne Whaley

The S&P 500’s performance during the week of May 2–9 (Sat-Sat) has historically been fairly neutral over the past 51 years, posting 28 advances and 23 declines for an average gain of just 0.09%. 

 

» Seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week. «

 

► 51-year May 2–9 performance: mostly neutral (+0.09% avg; 28 up / 23 down)
► Overall seasonal and momentum bias: modestly bullish for next week
► First half of May often mirrors first half of April behavior
► 2026 April (Apr 1–16): strong +7.09% advance
► Strong April (>1.68%) historically: 15 up / 2 down in following week

► Weak April (<-0.45%) historically: 6 up / 11 down in following week
► Closest strong April cases (2009, 2020) saw +5.89% and +3.50% gains

 

However, a broader set of seasonal studies suggests that stronger recent price trends tend to support continuation, implying a bias toward further gains in the coming week. Notably, the first half of May has often behaved similarly to the first half of April, reinforcing the relevance of the recent April setup.

In the data breakdown, May 2–9 returns are grouped into three 17-year categories based on the S&P’s performance from April 1–16 over the same 51-year history. In 2026, the index rose 7.09% during that April window. In the 17 prior instances where April 1–16 gains exceeded 1.68%, the S&P advanced in 15 of the following May 2–9 periods versus only 2 declines. By contrast, when April 1–16 was weaker than –0.45%, the next-week record flipped to 6 up and 11 down. More specifically, in the two historical cases most comparable to 2026—2009 and 2020, both with April gains above 5%—the S&P followed with strong May 2–9 advances of 5.89% and 3.50%, respectively.

The accompanying ratings system scales outcomes into -3 to +3 standard deviation bands on a -100 to +100 framework, with outliers down-weighted to better reflect typical behavior; readings below -50 or above +50 are treated as trade-alert conditions. While multiple non-seasonal factors can certainly influence market behavior, the combined seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week.

Reference:

Wayne Whaley (May 2, 2026) - Whaley-AI analysis of the seasonal odds for the S&P next week (May 2–9).

 

S&P performance after a 10% calendar month: "For me, from a directional signal perspective, it is a bull friendly development but more so because it occurred in the barometrically important month of April than the fact that it was a rare double digit month."

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 has posted gains during the first three trading days of May in 19 of the past 28 years.

 

Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed),  May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.

 

In midterm election years, May typically starts higher but turns broadly weak by May 5 (Tue), with softness persisting through most of the month.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024. 

 

S&P 500 Average Performance and Hit Rate per Day (1928-2024). 

   

In the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, May of midterm election years has historically been the weakest,

with all major indices avg. declines: DJIA –0.08%, S&P 500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.76%, NYSE –1.19%.

  

Historical S&P 500 data shows May averages just 0.38% gain since 1950 overall, but improves to 2.58% average and

9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985. 

 

When the S&P 500 closes April at a new all-time monthly high since the early 1960s (17 instances shown), 
the remainder of the calendar year has been positive 100% of the time with an average gain of +10.35%. 

 

 

See also: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. 

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (May 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for May 2026.

DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886 | @Fiorente2

Plotting all 35 midterm-election years for the DJIA since 1886, the spread of outcomes is enormous: In difficult midterm years, the DJIA has fallen by as much as 25% (1966), while in stronger years it has gained up to 45%. The average of ±2% is likely the most realistic expectation right now, given the current environment.

 

Chart 1: DJIA 2026 versus the Top Three Midterm Correlated Years:

1898 = approx. +20% (correlation 0.764); 1926 = ended the year flat (0.716); 1966 = approx. -20% (0.826). 

However, to get a sharper view, the three midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance (from January through last week) were selected and charted: 1966, 1926, and 1898 (Chart 1).  

• 1966 has the strongest correlation (0.826).  
• 1898 (0.764) is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here.  
• 1926 (0.716) sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top three.

 

Chart 2: DJIA 2026 vs 1966 and Top Three Composites. In 1966, the DJIA printed its yearly low in early October.

  

Each of these years carries its own resonance: 

• In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power through victory in the Spanish-American War. 
• In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. 
• In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election defined the landscape.  

The bias points toward 1966 (Chart 2): The correlation is the strongest, and the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. 

 

Reference:
@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - A US Midterm forecast on the DJIA.

 

Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has risen to a record above $370B, underscoring a scarcity of attractive valuations and ongoing reductions in holdings such as Apple. Warren Buffett has described recent market pullbacks as modest relative to historical downturns, drawing parallels to the elevated cash levels he maintained ahead of the 1999 dot-com crash and the 2007 financial crisis—periods when major equities ultimately fell by 80–90%.

See also:

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - An Update on the DJIA and the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle.

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 23, 2026) - Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle Pattern: Q1 Shock. Q2-Q4 Awe.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

S&P 500 After Rapid 10% Gains: +17% Avg One-Year Return | Alex Krainer

Historical S&P 500 data shows that sharp 10% rallies over a 10-day span tend to exhibit strong follow-through. On average, returns have been approximately +0.6% after one week, +2.5% after one month, and +17% over the following year.

Rapid 10%+ bounces in the S&P 500 (weekly candles), 1980 to 2026.

A review of the weekly S&P 500 chart from 1980 to 2026 highlights multiple instances of these "rapid +10% bounces," marked by green and red arrows. In most cases, these moves were followed by continued upside, though there were notable exceptions—such as the period around 2000.

 

Alex Krainer argues that the current setup differs meaningfully from the 2000  episode. He notes the absence of broadly synchronized overbought conditions among megacap stocks today, and emphasizes that the more significant declines in 2000 occurred only after the index had already fallen below its 40-week moving average.
 

S&P 500 RSI readings above 70 have led to pullbacks in 8 of the last 10 cases over two years, with the other two resulting in flat consolidation. The daily chart (May 2024–April 2026) marks these signals with red arrows for pullbacks and one green arrow, alongside recent price action near 7,000. This suggests an 80% likelihood of a near-term pullback, though prior corrections since the 2025 rally have been relatively mild.

Reference:
Alex Krainer (April 16, 2026) - Rapid S&P 500 10% rallies in 10 days historically show strong follow-through. 

 

Jeffrey Hirsch notes that the S&P 500's 7.57% gain in the first 10 trading days of April 2026 ranks as the second-strongest start to April since 1950.

Gains averaged +10.8% for the rest of the year, with full-year returns positive in 91.7% of cases (+16.2% avg.).

Historically, such powerful early-April momentum has been a bullish signal: in 20 of 24 comparable cases (83.3%), the market delivered further gains over the remainder of the year, with an average advance of +10.8%. Full-year returns were positive in 22 of those 24 instances (91.7%), averaging +16.2%. Hirsch’s data also segments April starts into performance tiers, with 2026 firmly in the top group—where subsequent returns have consistently outpaced those seen in the middle and bottom tiers.

DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks Since 1982 | Jeff Hirsch

April's monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board, with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA has advanced 28 times in 44 years on monthly expiration day, with an average gain of 0.20%. 

 

DJIA has risen in 34 of the past 44 April options-expiration weeks (next week), with an average gain of 1.00%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also show strong seasonality, averaging weekly gains of 0.77% and 0.76%. Losses in 2022, 2024, and 2025 have tempered the longer-term averages. 

 DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

 

 

S&P 500 Up in 65.9% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

S&P 500 has a similar record, also with 28 advances and an average advance of 0.15% on monthly expiration day. Monthly expiration day was trending solidly bullish after four or five declines from 2014 to 2018, but took hits in the 2022 bear market, 2024, and in 2025 due to Liberation Day tariff uncertainty.

NASDAQ Up in 63.6% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

 

Monthly expiration week also has a bullish track record over the past 44 years. Average weekly gains are +1.00% for DJIA, +0.77% for S&P 500, and +0.76% for NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April monthly expiration also persists during the week after, although average gains have not been as strong, with selling pressure rising (from 2018 to 2022). However, strength has returned since 2023. NASDAQ jumped 6.73% in the week after in 2025.

► April seasonality strong: 2nd-best month for DJIA and S&P; 4th for NASDAQ.
► April 2026 started solidly (+0.52% DJIA, +1.98% NASDAQ) despite geopolitical tension, rising energy costs, April 15 tax deadline.
► Historically, early April outperformed—since 1994, strength shifted to second half.
► Post–April 15 stronger (especially NASDAQ, Russell 2000).

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 10, 2026) - DJIA Up 77.3% of the Time During April Monthly Expiration Week since 1982.

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 7, 2026) - Income Tax Deadline, Earnings Season & Iran War: Second Half of April Historically Better.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Over the past 21 years (solid lines in the chart below), April has exhibited a pattern of steady gains starting around April 7 (Tue)(Trading Day 5) and continuing through the end of the month, with only minor fluctuations along the way. Overall, it has generally finished positive across the board.

 

Midterm election years since 1950 (dashed lines) show strength from April 7 (Tue) through mid-April only, followed by choppy trading that typically ends the month flat or in negative territory.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Weaker in Midterm Election Years.

 

S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - April 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

March Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Beginning on March 2 (Mon) (Trading Day 1), the US stock market historically follows two distinct paths. Over the recent 21-year period (solid lines in the chart below), March tends to open positively with modest gains through March 4 (Wed) (TD 3) before weakness leads to a sharp dip around March 9 (Mon) (TD 6). While indices typically move higher from March 16 (Mon) (TD 11), the NASDAQ and S&P 500 usually lead this recovery into the final close on March 31 (Tue) (TD 22).

 

March generally finishes positive across all major indices.

  

In contrast, Midterm Election years since 1950 (dotted lines) show significantly greater historical strength, potentially as a rebound from a typically tepid February. This cycle produces a front-loaded rally where R2K small caps flip from laggards to leaders, often outpacing S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ. Strength generally persists until the Spring Equinox, reaching a seasonal peak on March 20 (Fri) (TD 15). After this point, indices tend to lose momentum and close out the month with choppy trading. Despite these differing mid-month trajectories, March has a 64% win rate, generally finishing positive across all indices.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - March’s Seasonal Pattern – Early Strength Persists Longer in Midterm Years. 

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

 

Detrended S&P 500 Seasonality.

 

Detrended VIX Seasonality (see also HERE). 

 

S&P 500 First 10 Days and Last 10 Days of the Month (1928-2024).

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return & Percent of Days Positive (1928-2024).

 

 DJIA (daily bars).

 

CNN Fear & Greed Index.

Bank of America's Bull & Bear Index hit 9.3 on February 24, crossing the contrarian "sell" threshold above 8, indicating excessive optimism among global fund managers. Historically, such readings preceded median three-month drawdowns of 5.5% for the S&P 500, and 8.6% for the Nasdaq.

 See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Branimir Vojcic (February 23, 2026) - VIX Cycles: Forecasting Volatility Peaks Through 2032. 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (March 1, 2026) - March 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

50% DJIA Gain Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High | Jeff Hirsch

Historical data going back to 1914 shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has typically fallen about 20% from its peak in the year following a presidential election to its trough during the subsequent midterm year. Weakness has been most persistent in Q2 and Q3 of Midterm years. Regardless of the precise level reached, the advance that normally follows is a very attractive entry point for position traders (see tab and chart below).

% Change in DJIA between Midterm year Low and High of following year, 1914-2023.

Within the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, the most favorable phase begins late in the Midterm year: The strongest consecutive two quarters historically run from Q4 of the Midterm year into the Q1 of the Pre-Election year, delivering average gains of 46.3% for the Dow.

 

  S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

Q2 of the Pre-Election year is also notably strong—ranking as the third-best quarter of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle—effectively extending this high-performance window to three quarters, from Midterm Q4 2026 through Pre-Election Q2 2027. 

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 11, 2026) - January Barometer Rules: 2026 Midterm Year Forecast Update (webinar). 

 

Q4 2026: Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle.

Assuming the future will be but an averaged past (1973-2026).   

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Bill Sarubbi (January 23, 2026) - 2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin.

Ned Davis Research (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.