2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices | Jeff Hirsch

Within the four-year presidential cycle, the midterm year represents the weakest phase for equities. It is characterized by low single-digit average returns and the cycle's deepest intra-year pullbacks. However, it also sets the stage for the most reliable and profitable recovery rallies, which typically extend well into the following year. Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Hurst cycles project 9-month troughs for January and October 2026 (as illustrated in the charts at the end of this article).  

 

 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern.

 

The first chart above shows the average seasonal performance of the DJIA (blue), S&P 500 (black), NASDAQ (green), and Russell 2000 (grey) from 1949 to 2024. All follow a consistent trajectory: a period of weakness from January through September, with average cumulative declines of 2–8%, followed by a fourth-quarter recovery that pushes annual returns toward positive territory.

6th Years of President Term Seasonal Pattern (1949-2024).

 

6th Year of 10-year Cycle Seasonal Pattern (1949-2024). 

 2026 Scenarios.

The next chart focuses on the S&P 500, comparing the broader midterm average (blue) against the sixth year of a presidency (red), second-term Republican midterms (green), and Jeffrey A. Hirsch's Stock Trader’s Almanac aggregate cycle (black). Across all categories, early-year gains eventually yield to mid-year volatility, and a strong rally consistently emerges from October onward.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

 

The second-term Republican midterm cycle (green) begins with a minor January dip, followed by a steady ascent that peaks at roughly 6-8% by April-June. After third-quarter volatility—where gains typically compress to a 1% floor in September—the market enters a year-end rally exceeding 8% by December.
 

 Performance of the S&P 500 during the Presidential Cycle: 
Midterm Years see both the largest pullbacks, and the best recovery rallies.

 S&P 500 Peak-to-Trough Declines in Midterm Election Years, 1950-2022.

The table above outlines every S&P 500 peak-to-trough decline during midterm election years between 1950 and 2022. These declines averaged 17.3% over 115 calendar days, typically beginning in late April and finding a floor by mid-August. However, all of these declines consistently acted as springboards, fueling recovery rallies that averaged 31.7% gains one year later.

 

 Edgar Lawrence Smith (1939) - Tides in the Affairs of Men: 

An Approach to the Appraisal of Economic Change.

  

2026 in the Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle. 

 

 J.M. Hurst's 18-Month Cyclic Model: Component cycles

and the aggregated Composite Cycle (thick black line).

 

 

While the ideal period for Hurst’s nominal 40-week cycle (also known as the 9-month cycle) is 272 days (38.86 weeks), current data from TimeSeriesSCC and Sentient Trader indicate a shorter realized average in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Over the last ten iterations, the measured 40-week cycle has averaged 257 to 262 days (36.7 to 37.4 weeks).

Projecting this duration forward from the major troughs of April 7 and April 21, 2025, the next 40-week cycle trough was initially expected to occur in a window between December 20, 2025, and January 8, 2026. However, considering the recent 80-, 40-, and 20-day troughs—including those from the DJI, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, and BTCUSD—shifts the projected window toward mid-late-January.

 

 

 Blancmange Curve.

 Gold, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1975-2024).

 

 Silver, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1973-2024).

 

 

 Copper, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1973-2024).

 

Crude Oil, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1984-2024).

 

Natural Gas, Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1991-2024).

See also: 
Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast & Outlook: 6th Year of Presidency. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.

S&P After 10%+ First Three Quarters and Positive September | Wayne Whaley

Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 gained 10% or more in the first three quarters and September was positive, the fourth quarter has historically been positive 80% of the time (16 out of 20 years). The average gain for the fourth quarter during these years is 4.42%. The best performance observed was +11.36%, while the worst was a loss of -1.26%.

Looking at 2025, as of September 27, with only two trading days left in the month, the first three quarters of the year have seen a total gain of 12.96%, with 2.84% of that gain coming from September alone.

 

October: The market has been negative in October 55% of the time (9 years up, 11 down) with an average loss of -0.44%. The best performance was +4.46%, while the worst was -6.86%.

October 20–27: During this specific period, the market has been down 80% of the time (4 years up, 16 down), with an average decline of -1.29%. The best performance was +1.22%, and the worst was -8.23%.

November: In contrast, November has been positive 80% of the time (16 years up, 4 down), with an average gain of +3.41%. The best was a gain of +10.24%, while the worst was a decline of -1.89%.

December: December has been positive 75% of the time (15 years up, 5 down), with an average gain of +1.47%. The best performance was +5.25%, and the worst was -3.39%.

Combining November and December, the performance has been positive 90% of the time (18 years up, 2 down), with an average gain of 4.81%. The best combined performance was +13.57%, while the worst was a modest -0.45%.

The average absolute drawdown in the fourth quarter was -2.66%. The worst was -8.64%, though the period also saw potential upside gains of up to +12.00%.

  

Reference:

Wayne Whaley, September 27, 2025.

 

 

 

See also:

Jeff Hirsch (September 25, 2025) - October Seasonality of US Stock Indexes in Post-Election Years.
Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025.

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.  

“Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” | Hurst Cycles Suggest Otherwise

The Wall Street adage “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” suggests that traders can profit by shorting the S&P 500 at the start of Rosh Hashanah (Monday, September 22, 2025) and covering to go long on Yom Kippur (Wednesday, October 1, 2025), capitalizing on a historical tendency for market declines during this period. And statistics bear this out. 

 

"Sell Rosh Hashanah at the high of the day, and cover on Yom Kippur at the low" 

vs. "Buy Rosh Hashanah at the low of the day, and cover on Yom Kippur at the high." 

The table above examines the performance of the S&P 500 from 1970 to 2024, analyzing extreme prices ("Sell Rosh Hashanah at the day's high and cover at Yom Kippur's low" vs. "Buy at Rosh Hashanah at the day's low and cover at Yom Kippur's high") and calculates percentage returns for each year, averages, medians, and counts positive/negative years to evaluate the profitability of each strategy:  

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur: Average profit 2.31% (median 2.10%), positive in 51/55 years (92.73%).
Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur: Average loss 1.42% (median 0.79%), negative in 41/55 years (74.55%). 

 

However, will this year be different, and, contrary to negative seasonality, ‘Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur’ be the better option?  

 

Statistically, clearly not—but Hurst cycles analysis suggests otherwise: The 20-week, 80-day, and 40-day cycles bottomed on Monday, September 1, and are pushing higher into early October. The S&P 500 may have already peaked today or could top around tomorrow’s FOMC press conference, before declining into a 20-day cycle trough later this week (New Moon/Fall Equinox) or early next week, and then resuming the uptrend into the major 40-week cycle top around October 6 (±2-3 days)(see also David Hickson’s Bitcoin cycle analysis).

 

See also: 

David Hickson (September 15, 2025) - FLD Trading Opportunity in Bitcoin.

Branimir Vojcic (September 14, 2025) - 40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500. 

Krasi (September 13, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis: Update and Long-Term View. 

 David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 17, 2024) - September Quadruple Witching Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful.

17-0 Turn-of-Year S&P 500 Setup with 7.1% Average Gain | Wayne Whaley

After the 20% pullback in the S&P 500 that occurred from February 19 to April 8, May, June, and July each posted positive returns of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 2.1%, respectively. In the 75 years following 1950, there have only been 17 instances in which the traditional "Sell in May and Go Away" period was marked by three consecutive positive months (May, June, and July): 

 From October 12 to October 27, the performance was 2 wins to 15 losses, with an average loss of 3.0%.

From October 27 to January 18, the record was 17-0, with an average gain of 7.1%.

 

Looking at the following 12 months, from August through July, the outcome was favorable, with a record of 14 wins and 3 losses in this setup. The average gain over this period was 12.6%, compared to a more typical yearly gain of 9.5%.

Interestingly, the only negative month during the following year was October. Specifically, from October 12 to October 27, the performance was 2 wins to 15 losses, with an average loss of 3.0%. However, from October 27 to January 18, the trend reversed dramatically, posting a perfect 17-0 record with an average gain of 7.1% over 11.7 weeks.

Wayne Whaley,
August 2, 2025.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (May 17, 2025)  - "Three Day Whaley" Predicting 20% Average Annual Return.

S&P 500 Rally Returns to Midpoint of Long-Term Channel | Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 has rallied about 25% in 3 months to hit record highs, which seems impressive. But it is only 2% above the February peak; i.e., over the last 5 months, it is up 5% at an annualized rate. And year-to-date, it is up 6.5%, or 12.5% at an annualized rate. In historical context, these numbers do not stand out.

The S&P 500 has just caught back up to the middle of its post Global Financial Crisis channel, 

and price gain so far this year is in line with the long-run median outside of recessions.
 

The median annual gain for the S&P 500 over the last 100 years is about 11.5%. And if one were to look only at years without recessions, it is 13%; for those with positive returns, the median is a whopping 19.5%. Indeed, the S&P 500 trends upward over time with occasional selloffs, and over the last 15 years—i.e., since the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)—it has been in a strong but wide channel rising at an annual rate of 12.5%. The rally has just taken it back to the middle of this channel, where it was at the February peak. 

 

Deutsche Bank, July 13, 2025.

 

  » Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. «

 

Since 1980 the median annual drawdown of the S&P 500 is 11% for all years,

and it's the same for election years (red boxes). 

 

» US stock market is among the three most overvalued in 100 years. « 

 

 Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle 2024-2027, Ned Davis Research, 2024.

The Four-Year Presidential Cycle aligned with the Decennial Cycle, 1900–2024.

See also:
Wayne Whaley (July 6, 2025)  - The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? 

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.

 

The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 11, 2025)  - July Monthly Options Expiration Week – NASDAQ Down 7 Straight.  

 

Positive Seasonality for Nasdaq (1990-2024) ends this week. SPX is similar.

 

Detrended Seasonality for S&P 500 (1990-2024). 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Forecast Update. 

 

Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 2025  - 1965 Analogue Update.

 

 Nominal 20-Day Hurst Cycle in the S&P 500.

 

See also:

Krasi (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis. 

Branimir Vojcic (July 5, 2025)  - The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500.
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.

The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? | Wayne Whaley

The S&P finished the 4th of July week at 6,279.35 and is now up 6.76% for 2025 and 13.4% over the last 12 rolling months (July 4 - July 4), currently residing at an All Time High for at least the three day weekend. 

 

You may recall that the S&P experienced an 18.9% selloff from the February 19th Close of 6,144.15 to the April 8th Close of 4,982.77, exceeding 20% if measured vs the April 8th intraday Low of 4,910.42. From that 4,982.77 Closing Low on April 8th, the S&P has now advanced 26.0%, doing so in less than a Quarter, 86 calendar days (April 8 - July 3) to be precise.  

The S&P surged 26% in just 86 days, reaching another all-time high, and has now risen 6.76% in 2025. 

Historical data shows similar rallies led to gains of 19.2%+ over the next year.

 

Looking back through post 1950 history, I can only find five prior occasions in which the S&P has advanced 25% in less than a Quarter and none of those five occasions were anywhere near an impending top. 

Certainly, one would prefer to have more than five data points from which to draw conclusions upon which to base one's market exposure but the magnitude and uniformity of the advances across the following 12 months in those five cases appears worthy of our respect. All five cases were positive over the following 1 to 12 months, up at least 19.2% one year later, 31.7% on average. None of the five cases experienced a 4% drawdown as measured from the signal Date.
 

Wayne Whaley 

July 5, 2025

 

 

See also:

Branimir Vojcic (July 5, 2025)  - The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500.
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.  

"Three Day Whaley" Predicting 20% Average Annual Return | Wayne Whaley

When the S&P 500 experiences a one-day upside move of three standard deviations or more, there is often a tendency for the index to undergo some level of profit-taking (consolidation) over the next couple of days. However, if the index defies this tendency and follows the initial surge with two consecutive positive days, it signals strength. This pattern, known as the "Three Day Whaley," is a notable market move deserving of attention.

 The "Three Day Whaley" signal has a perfect 30-0 record since 1950

for predicting positive annual returns averaging 20.2%.

Volatility has increased over the past 75 years. The setup for this pattern requires the S&P to post a move on Day 1 that reflects the volatility during that specific period, followed by two consecutive positive days. The threshold for that initial move has evolved from around 2.25% in 1950 to 3.25% in 2025.

On May 12-14, the S&P met the criteria for this setup with a three-day sequence of 3.25%, 0.76%, and 0.10%—its first occurrence since March 26, 2020, which was followed by a 50.55% annual gain.

Since 1950, the S&P has gone 30-0 in the year following this setup, with an average annual gain of 20.2%. All 30 instances have seen at least a 7.5% gain, and only four of the 30 cases experienced a double-digit drawdown. The first-day threshold requirement can be found in column 3 (DAY1 THHLD) in the table above.

Reference:
Wayne Whaley (May 17, 2025)  - A 30-0 Three Day Whaley.

See also:

Paul Ciana (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years.

Ryan Detrick (May 16, 2025) - S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls.