July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Historically one of the market's stronger months, July typically sees a consistent upward trend across all major indexes (solid lines), often driven by optimism ahead of second-quarter earnings. Over the last 21 years (2005–2025), gains have built from a strong first trading day, with the NASDAQ leading at an average gain of just over 3%. While the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell indexes also show robust positive trends, their momentum generally slows after mid-month.

Historically strong and earnings-driven, July favors broad index gains—especially the NASDAQ—
but midterm election years routinely trigger underperformance and small-cap volatility.

However, midterm election years tell a different story (dashed lines). Performance during these periods is notably weaker and more volatile: the DJIA and S&P 500 manage only modest gains, while small-caps (Russell 2000) historically struggle the most, often finishing July in negative territory. Ultimately, while seasonal trends favor equities, the midterm backdrop warns that volatility can emerge unexpectedly.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - Strong July Trends Could Face a Midterm-Year Test. 

July Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2000-2020).

 

 

 July is historically one of the year's strongest months, ranking third since 1950 for both the
DJIA and S&P 500 during midterm election years with average gains of 1.6% and 1.3%.

 

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally—last 3 days of June through first 9 of July—
has gained an avg 2.5% since 1985, hitting in 32 of 41 years (78%).

 

In US midterm years (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022), July delivers the broadest

market strength of the second half, with every major sector posting positive

average returns (S&P 500 +3.65%), led by Technology (+4.11%),

 Energy (+4.26%), and Consumer Discretionary (+4.10%).  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Jack Gillen (June 23, 2026) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices. 

David Hickson (June 15, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026 | Jeff Hirsch

As July approaches, attention turns to NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally, a seasonal pattern running from the close of the fourth-to-last trading day of June (Thursday, June 25) through the ninth trading day of July (Tuesday, July 14). 

Since 1985, the rally has averaged a 2.5% gain (2.9% median) and finished higher in 32 of 41 years, a 78% success rate. Its strongest performances include gains of 10.4% in 1999, 10.0% in 2000, and 9.6% in 2016, while recent advances reached 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, and 3.3% last year. 

The pattern has persisted through bull and bear markets, recessions, and recoveries, likely reflecting quarter-end rebalancing, new-quarter capital inflows, and improving sentiment ahead of earnings season. Although it has failed nine times since 1985, its four-decade record makes it one of NASDAQ’s most durable and reliable seasonal tendencies.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's Midyear Rally: A Seasonal Opportunity Approaches.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.  

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting.

June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

June is typically constructive for equities: over 31 years, NASDAQ leads (+1.7%), followed by Russell 2000 (+1.2%), Russell 1000 (+0.4%), and S&P 500 modestly positive, while DJIA is roughly flat. A common pattern is mid-month weakness followed by a recovery into month-end, suggesting dip-buying behavior.

June's Seasonal Crossroads: Strong Recent Trends vs. Historical Midterm Weakness.

In contrast, midterm-election years show consistent June declines across all major indexes. Small caps are hit hardest (Russell 2000 −2%), with NASDAQ, Russell 1000, S&P 500, and DJIA also posting notable losses. This aligns with broader midterm seasonality: heightened political uncertainty and policy risk tend to weaken markets in Q2–Q3, with strength often deferred to Q4.

Bottom line: June is usually bullish, especially for growth/tech, but midterm years introduce clear downside bias. Monitoring which pattern dominates can signal the market’s trajectory for the rest of the year.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 3, 2026) - June's Seasonal Crossroads: Strong Recent Trends vs. Historical Midterm Weakness. 

June Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2001-2021).

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

 

As we are living in a time like no other, by June 2026, the S&P 500 (red line) shows a negative correlation (–4.83%) with its historical midterm election year pattern since 1950 (green line). Instead, the index more closely aligns with post-election year (94.49%, purple line) and pre-election year (93.5%, orange line) patterns. The post-election analogue (purple) suggests a flat to slightly negative trajectory into early July 2026, followed by a rise in prices through year-end. The pre-election analogue (orange) points to a broader, range-bound pattern through late September 2026, before similarly trending higher into year-end. The black line represents the average yearly seasonal pattern of the S&P 500 from 2000 to 2025, which remains flat from June into early September, declines into early October, and is followed by a steeper rise into year-end.

NDR's pattern matching tool shows that the NASDAQ has closely tracked the dotcom analog and is closer to 1998 than 2000. It still suggests near-term volatility ahead.

May 24 to June 5: Fifth-Ranked Bullish S&P Seasonal Period | Wayne Whaley

My Top Ten Seasonal Model evaluates the performance of every time frame in the year, from 7 to 35 calendar days, and identifies the top 10 mutually exclusive periods.

May 24 to June 5, S&P positive in 37 of 50 years with 1.21% average return

and only one 3%+ loss, while Nasdaq averaged 1.77% with 38 up periods.

May 24 to June 5, which I refer to as the Post-Memorial Day Rally, is my 5th-ranked S&P seasonal trade of the year for both the S&P and the Nasdaq when comparing all time frames across the year. 

 

Notably, over the last 50 years, the S&P experienced only one 3% loss (1981) during this period, versus ten different years that recorded 3% gains. The last ten cases have been positive.

 

Wayne Whaley, May 24, 2026.

 

See also:

TPR (May 19, 2026) - Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

S&P 500 Four-Year Election Cycle: Ranking All 48 Months | Wayne Whaley

If you are into Election Cycle tendencies, you might possibly find this study of interest. I have S&P data back to its origin in 1957 and S&P proxy data, via Dow analog, back to 1930. Dating back to 1930, I took the time to calculate my personal performance rating for each of the 48 months of the Four-Year Election Cycle, which is based on an average with outliers underweighted. The rating measure ranges from -100 to +100 in -3 to +3 standard deviation fashion.

Pre-election Januarys lead, midterm election Junes lag, with 2026 resilience challenging weak June seasonals.  

Reasonable chance of posting a win this year?

The left side of the table above contains the top 24 rated months through April of 2026 of the Four-Year Election Cycle in the sample set, while the right side contains the bottom 24 months. The 3% column is the performance in those months which had a 3% move in either direction. Likewise for the 5% column.

Four of the top ten months in this study occur in Pre-Election years, with Januarys (20-4) at the top. While four of the bottom ten occur in Midterm Election years. Owing largely to the seven Junes of those 24 in the test set which incurred 5% losses, June of Midterm Election years brings up the rear.

The S&P has exhibited a resilience to many a headwind in 2026 which, in my humble opinion, merits respect, and the weak June midterm election seasonals should be weighed against many a traditional momentum-based seasonal study that gives June a reasonable chance of posting a win this year. Tis your call.

Wayne Whaley, May 23, 2026.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes

Memorial Day weekend (May 23-25, 2026) has become the unofficial start of summer for many Americans, marking a notable transition in financial markets. In recent years, trading activity typically begins a gradual decline shortly afterward—barring major external events—toward a later summer low. 

 

Over the past 20 years, the Thursday before Memorial Day has delivered the strongest average gains across major indices (DJIA +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.18%, NASDAQ +0.34%, Russell 2000 +0.32%). Friday shows a solid percentage of up days—particularly for the NASDAQ (66.7%, +0.38% average)—but with more mixed overall performance. Wednesday is the weakest, with negative average returns. The dataset includes 2025; both median returns and win rates also tend to favor Thursday in several cases.

Market participants refer to this summertime slowdown as the summer doldrums, characterized by anemic volume and often uninspired, range-bound trading on Wall Street. Seasonal volume patterns since the 1960s for the NYSE and 1970s for the NASDAQ show this typical lull, with daily trading volumes frequently dropping 20-40% from winter peaks, reaching troughs particularly in late July and August as vacations reduce institutional participation.

In the lead-up to the holiday, historical performance presents mixed yet distinctive results. Thursday before Memorial Day has consistently delivered the strongest average gains across the DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 in 21-year analyses. Friday, the last trading day before the long weekend, records a higher proportion of advancing sessions for most major indexes, with the NASDAQ standing out at a 66.7% win rate, an average gain of 0.38%, and nine up closes in the last ten years. That said, this Friday session also tends to feature lackluster, light-volume trading. For the DJIA, results have been essentially neutral over extended periods, with an even split of up and down closes and a modest average decline of approximately 0.05%.

 

 May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years:

Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Following the holiday, market behavior often turns more muted and, in recent decades, weaker. The Tuesday after Memorial Day has shown notable softness, with the DJIA and S&P 500 declining in seven of the last nine observed years, alongside more frequent losses in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Broader post-holiday windows, including the full trading week after Memorial Day, performed robustly from the early 1970s through the mid-1990s but have since weakened considerably, with reduced frequency of positive returns and smaller average gains, especially since the late 1990s and after 2010. An event study of returns spanning three days before to three days after the holiday generally aligns with long-term daily averages, showing no pronounced anomaly.

Beyond the immediate sessions, the broader period from Memorial Day to Labor Day (September 7, 2026) has historically produced net positive, albeit modest, results for the S&P 500. The index has advanced in roughly 70% of periods since the early 1970s, with average gains typically ranging from 1.6% to 2.8%. This summer window fits within the broader “Sell in May and Go Away” tendency, during which overall returns tend to be softer than in the November-to-April period, even as the Memorial Day-to-Labor Day segment itself often contributes positively amid the lighter volumes of the doldrums.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns, 1949-2024.

 
In midterm-election years such as 2026, these summer patterns can intersect with the broader presidential cycle, which historically features heightened volatility and often subdued returns. Midterm years frequently see notable market lows forming between late July and mid-August, aligning with the depth of the summer doldrums, reduced liquidity, and pre-election political uncertainty. Such periods have at times served as bottoming phases, setting the stage for stronger recoveries later in the year or into the following pre-election period, though outcomes vary with prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 19, 2026) - Trading Mixed Before Memorial Day Weekend.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 8, 2024) - Summer Doldrums Have Arrived - Market Volume Likely to Continue Fading.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.
Meghan Nalty-Roach (May 01, 2025) - How Memorial Day Impacts the Markets.

 

 

» The bull capitulation is almost complete. «

 

See also: 

David Hickson (May 18, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, Bitcoin. 

TPR (May 1, 2026) - Cosmic Cluster Days | May 2026.

Seasonal Odds Favor S&P 500 Gains Next Week (May 2–9) | Wayne Whaley

The S&P 500’s performance during the week of May 2–9 (Sat-Sat) has historically been fairly neutral over the past 51 years, posting 28 advances and 23 declines for an average gain of just 0.09%. 

 

» Seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week. «

 

► 51-year May 2–9 performance: mostly neutral (+0.09% avg; 28 up / 23 down)
► Overall seasonal and momentum bias: modestly bullish for next week
► First half of May often mirrors first half of April behavior
► 2026 April (Apr 1–16): strong +7.09% advance
► Strong April (>1.68%) historically: 15 up / 2 down in following week

► Weak April (<-0.45%) historically: 6 up / 11 down in following week
► Closest strong April cases (2009, 2020) saw +5.89% and +3.50% gains

 

However, a broader set of seasonal studies suggests that stronger recent price trends tend to support continuation, implying a bias toward further gains in the coming week. Notably, the first half of May has often behaved similarly to the first half of April, reinforcing the relevance of the recent April setup.

In the data breakdown, May 2–9 returns are grouped into three 17-year categories based on the S&P’s performance from April 1–16 over the same 51-year history. In 2026, the index rose 7.09% during that April window. In the 17 prior instances where April 1–16 gains exceeded 1.68%, the S&P advanced in 15 of the following May 2–9 periods versus only 2 declines. By contrast, when April 1–16 was weaker than –0.45%, the next-week record flipped to 6 up and 11 down. More specifically, in the two historical cases most comparable to 2026—2009 and 2020, both with April gains above 5%—the S&P followed with strong May 2–9 advances of 5.89% and 3.50%, respectively.

The accompanying ratings system scales outcomes into -3 to +3 standard deviation bands on a -100 to +100 framework, with outliers down-weighted to better reflect typical behavior; readings below -50 or above +50 are treated as trade-alert conditions. While multiple non-seasonal factors can certainly influence market behavior, the combined seasonal evidence alongside recent momentum points modestly in favor of higher prices over the coming week.

Reference:

Wayne Whaley (May 2, 2026) - Whaley-AI analysis of the seasonal odds for the S&P next week (May 2–9).

 

S&P performance after a 10% calendar month: "For me, from a directional signal perspective, it is a bull friendly development but more so because it occurred in the barometrically important month of April than the fact that it was a rare double digit month."

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The S&P 500 has posted gains during the first three trading days of May in 19 of the past 28 years.

 

Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

Weakness often emerges around the May 6 (Wed),  May 8-12 (Fri-Tue), and after May 18 (Mon). The final four days usually post solid gains (May 26-29, Tue-Fri), though the last day of May has been notably weak.

 

In midterm election years, May typically starts higher but turns broadly weak by May 5 (Tue), with softness persisting through most of the month.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - Early May Strength Turns to Chop Until Late Month Pop.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024. 

 

S&P 500 Average Performance and Hit Rate per Day (1928-2024). 

   

In the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, May of midterm election years has historically been the weakest,

with all major indices avg. declines: DJIA –0.08%, S&P 500 –0.63%, NASDAQ –0.76%, NYSE –1.19%.

  

Historical S&P 500 data shows May averages just 0.38% gain since 1950 overall, but improves to 2.58% average and

9-1 record in the 10 years with April gains of 5% or higher, including the last seven straight positives post-1985. 

 

When the S&P 500 closes April at a new all-time monthly high since the early 1960s (17 instances shown), 
the remainder of the calendar year has been positive 100% of the time with an average gain of +10.35%. 

 

 

See also: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Alex Krainer (April 27, 2026) - S&P 500 Dumb Money Confidence Enters Extreme Optimism. 

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (May 2, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for May 2026.

DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886 | @Fiorente2

Plotting all 35 midterm-election years for the DJIA since 1886, the spread of outcomes is enormous: In difficult midterm years, the DJIA has fallen by as much as 25% (1966), while in stronger years it has gained up to 45%. The average of ±2% is likely the most realistic expectation right now, given the current environment.

 

Chart 1: DJIA 2026 versus the Top Three Midterm Correlated Years:

1898 = approx. +20% (correlation 0.764); 1926 = ended the year flat (0.716); 1966 = approx. -20% (0.826). 

However, to get a sharper view, the three midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance (from January through last week) were selected and charted: 1966, 1926, and 1898 (Chart 1).  

• 1966 has the strongest correlation (0.826).  
• 1898 (0.764) is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here.  
• 1926 (0.716) sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top three.

 

Chart 2: DJIA 2026 vs 1966 and Top Three Composites. In 1966, the DJIA printed its yearly low in early October.

  

Each of these years carries its own resonance: 

• In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power through victory in the Spanish-American War. 
• In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. 
• In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election defined the landscape.  

The bias points toward 1966 (Chart 2): The correlation is the strongest, and the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. 

 

Reference:
@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - A US Midterm forecast on the DJIA.

 

Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has risen to a record above $370B, underscoring a scarcity of attractive valuations and ongoing reductions in holdings such as Apple. Warren Buffett has described recent market pullbacks as modest relative to historical downturns, drawing parallels to the elevated cash levels he maintained ahead of the 1999 dot-com crash and the 2007 financial crisis—periods when major equities ultimately fell by 80–90%.

See also:

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - An Update on the DJIA and the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle.

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 23, 2026) - Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle Pattern: Q1 Shock. Q2-Q4 Awe.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

S&P 500 After Rapid 10% Gains: +17% Avg One-Year Return | Alex Krainer

Historical S&P 500 data shows that sharp 10% rallies over a 10-day span tend to exhibit strong follow-through. On average, returns have been approximately +0.6% after one week, +2.5% after one month, and +17% over the following year.

Rapid 10%+ bounces in the S&P 500 (weekly candles), 1980 to 2026.

A review of the weekly S&P 500 chart from 1980 to 2026 highlights multiple instances of these "rapid +10% bounces," marked by green and red arrows. In most cases, these moves were followed by continued upside, though there were notable exceptions—such as the period around 2000.

 

Alex Krainer argues that the current setup differs meaningfully from the 2000  episode. He notes the absence of broadly synchronized overbought conditions among megacap stocks today, and emphasizes that the more significant declines in 2000 occurred only after the index had already fallen below its 40-week moving average.
 

S&P 500 RSI readings above 70 have led to pullbacks in 8 of the last 10 cases over two years, with the other two resulting in flat consolidation. The daily chart (May 2024–April 2026) marks these signals with red arrows for pullbacks and one green arrow, alongside recent price action near 7,000. This suggests an 80% likelihood of a near-term pullback, though prior corrections since the 2025 rally have been relatively mild.

Reference:
Alex Krainer (April 16, 2026) - Rapid S&P 500 10% rallies in 10 days historically show strong follow-through. 

 

Jeffrey Hirsch notes that the S&P 500's 7.57% gain in the first 10 trading days of April 2026 ranks as the second-strongest start to April since 1950.

Gains averaged +10.8% for the rest of the year, with full-year returns positive in 91.7% of cases (+16.2% avg.).

Historically, such powerful early-April momentum has been a bullish signal: in 20 of 24 comparable cases (83.3%), the market delivered further gains over the remainder of the year, with an average advance of +10.8%. Full-year returns were positive in 22 of those 24 instances (91.7%), averaging +16.2%. Hirsch’s data also segments April starts into performance tiers, with 2026 firmly in the top group—where subsequent returns have consistently outpaced those seen in the middle and bottom tiers.