The Status of the TOY Barometer at the End of November | Wayne Whaley

The way equity markets move from one year to the next often provides insight into what to expect in the following year. One of my favorite Turn of the Year (TOY) barometers is Toy2mt, which tracks the S&P 500's performance over the two months from November 19 to January 19. Historically, when the S&P shows a gain of 3% or more during this period, it has performed very well over the following 12 months (36-2 record, with an average return of 16.6%). I have found that the November component of Toy2mt (November 19-30) serves as an early indicator of what may lie ahead for Toy2mt and the year to come.

As of November 30, six of the first seven Toy2mt days were positive, and the November segment of Toy2mt stands at +1.98%, with bulls targeting a +3% Toy2mt return. Below is the performance for the following 12 months (December-November) since 1950, based on three different levels of the November 19-30 segment of Toy2mt.

 

» If I could make only one trade per year based on one indicator, it would be Toy2mt. «

[HERE], and [HERE]

When the November 19-30 period registers +1.5% or higher, it has typically been a positive signal for the following 12 months (December-November). In 2024, the November 19-30 period came in at +1.98%. It’s still early, and we will learn much more over the next seven weeks.

Wayne Whaley, November 30, 2024.

S&P Performance After Back-to-Back Double-Digit Years │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P was up 24.23% in 2023 and, as of October 19th, is up 22.95% in 2024. Barring a 10% correction in the last two months of this year, the S&P is positioned to post back-to-back double-digit years for the 25th time since 1930, which is the starting point of my S&P database.

 

Since 1930, the S&P has had 65 winning years out of 95 (68.4%), with an average annual gain of 7.9%. After back-to-back double-digit years, it has recorded 13 wins and 11 losses, with an average annual gain of 2.9%. Notably, since 1950, January results have been 7-12, with the last four being negative. The nine prior cases highlighted in yellow represent post-election years, where the S&P was 4-5, with an average gain of 1.5%.

There have been three occasions of at least four consecutive double-digit years: 1942-1945, 1949-1952, and five consecutive years during the early phase of the technology revolution from 1995-1999. This does not include the eight consecutive positive years in the 1980s, of which six were double-digit gains. Therefore, there is precedent for the rally to continue, especially if one believes we are in the second chapter of the technology revolution, driven by advances in AI.

Wayne Whaley — October 19, 2024.  

October 27: Key Date for the Year-End Rally | Wayne Whaley

We examined the S&P's performance during the first nine months of 2024. The index finished September with an impressive 20.8% increase, having only faced one losing month in April, which saw a decline of 4.2%. Notably, all seven rolling quarters during this period were positive, comprising the months from January to March, February to April, and so on. This remarkable performance places 2024 among only 15 years since 1930 that experienced both a gain of over 10% in the first nine months and no negative rolling quarter within that same timeframe. It's significant to note that all instances occurred after 1950.

A closer look at the historical data from the previous 14 cases reveals a pattern: while there tends to be some weakness in the second week of October, this is often followed by an "End of Year" rally starting around October 27. In fact, 13 out of the 14 instances recorded were positive from that date through the end of the year, with only a minor fractional loss occurring in 1964. Worth noting, four of the last five years have also seen positive performances during the period from October 7 to 15.

Wayne Whaley — October 6, 2024.

When the SPX is up through 3Q in an election year, 4Q is up 89% of the time 

w/avg return of 4.98% (4.26% median), which equates to SPX 6,000 into yearend.

See also:

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch (October 1, 2024) - October Volatility After Big Gain First Three Quarters.

S&P 500 seasonal pattern for October of the election year 2024 in line with the decennial cycle — September 29, 2024.

Stephen Suttmeier (July 1, 2024) - S&P 500 seasonality: first ten sessions and last ten sessions of the month since 1928.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Influence & Trend for the Year.

The S&P 500 After the Current Six-Month Pattern | Wayne Whaley

If the S&P doesn’t lose 1.6% on Monday, it will mark the fifth consecutive positive month, following the 4.2% loss in April.

Since 1950, this six-month pattern of one decline followed by five consecutive increases (Down-Up-Up-Up-Up-Up) has occurred 29 times. In 27 of those instances, the S&P was higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 12.8%.

Wayne Whaley — September 29, 2024

Ryan Detrick — September, 2024.

 Ned Davis — September 30, 2024.

Hurst Cycle Analysis for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ: An 80-day cycle low is expected to form in mid-October 

— David Hickson, September 30, 2024.

Looming US Supply Chains Shock in October 2024 | Lena Petrova

A devastating supply chain crisis is looming in the US, with 85,000 dock workers at 36 ports planning to start their strike on October 1st, demanding better pay and work conditions. This would impact 45-49% of US imports, affecting the entire country's port volume by over 40%. The strike would shut down five of the ten busiest ports in North America, including New York and New Jersey, which are already preparing for the strike. The strike is expected to cause shortages and delays, including retail, automotive, semiconductors, medicine and essentials, and a rise in prices due to consistent demand. A similar 11-day strike in 2002 caused the US economy to lose close to $1 billion daily and resulted in six months worth of backlogs.

 
US prepares for October Surprises.

Trade groups representing retailers, restaurants, and manufacturers are urging the administration to reverse its position, fearing severe economic impact. The International Monetary Fund warns of global trade fragmentation, making supply chains more vulnerable to disruptions. The situation is critical, with 25,000 workers prepared to strike, and negotiations between the union and US Maritime Alliance at a standstill. The White House has stated it will not prevent labor action at the ports. A strike would have long-term effects on the US economy, and its timing, just weeks prior to the November presidential elections, raises additional concerns.

Reference:

Lena Petrova (September 25, 2024) - Nearly 50% of ALL US Imports to Halt Due to Massive Port Strikes on October 1st. (video)

S&P 500 in Q4 After New 12-Month High in September | Wayne Whaley

On Thursday, September 19, the S&P 500 closed at a new twelve-month high as well as an all-time high. Since 1950, there have been twenty-nine years in which a twelve-month high was set in September.

In those twenty-nine prior cases, the fourth quarter was twenty-four wins and five losses, resulting in an average quarterly gain of 4.17 percent. The weakest period in the fourth quarter, on average, was from October 20 to 27, during which that week experienced twelve one-percent losses and only two gains of over one percent.

 

The sweet spot was from October 27 to December 5, which recorded twenty-five wins and four losses, with three percent moves being fifteen wins and zero losses. The last twenty instances, dating back to 1967, have followed this pattern.

 

Reference:

Wayne Whaley (September 21, 2024) - A New Twelve-Month High in September.

 

 

 

 

William J. O’Neil's Cup & Handle continuation pattern.

See also:

Wayne Whaley (September 14, 2024) - September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year.   

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 17, 2024) - September Quarterly Options Expiration Week Dodgy, Week After Dreadful. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.

September 19-26 Weakest Seasonal S&P Week of the Year | Wayne Whaley

The weekly performance measure used for comparison is an average of the weeks of interest over the last 50 years, which,

1. Underweights outliers that can distort averages and overweights the observations congregating more toward

     the median and,
2. Weights the most recent years 2 to 1 vs those 50 years prior. 

 

 Wayne Whaley @ X — September 14, 2024.

 

See also:

Wayne Whaley (August 31, 2024) - S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October.  

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 5, 2024) - S&P 500 September 2024 Seasonality.