Showing posts with label Empire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Empire. Show all posts

Monday, March 9, 2026

The Fall of the USSR: History of a Prediction | André Barbault

By way of introduction, I would like to apologize for being personally at the heart of this subject. However my personal account is necessary to present this assessment. Under such circumstances, no matter the person: only the prediction holds the attention. If I am at the core of this matter more than another person, this must be regarded as the mere result of a quest for truth. 
 

I was marked at an early age by a searing failure which made me realise the extent of the power of human illusion in our land of Urania, turned too much into a utopian land. I insisted on roaming the exacting ridge of this practice, the field of tentative prognosis which calls forth the moment of truth of what occurs or does not when the configuration in question falls due. A way of relying on only one reading of astronomic ephemerides; if possible in the far distance, when nothing can be suspected, making an appointment with the history of the ages and even decades to come; the prognosis thus becoming a gigantic leap into the prediction of the future. The ultimate risk... Thus treated, the prediction regains its eminent place in the temple of Urania in triumphant celebration.

I intend to recapture this story in its chronological order. It all began in 1936: my brother Armand writes an article for the review Consolation in which he improvises an explanation of the Front Populaire in France, using the opposition of Saturn and Neptune at this time. Did the Russian Revolution of 1917 not take place under the conjunction of these planets? He reworks this idea in his journal L'avenir du Monde (
The Future of the World) of 1938-1939. The correlation gains credence: everyone comes to admit it, one after the other, at least in the French-speaking world. My brother will not take this any further; the bulk of his research began in alchemy. However, he charges me with the responsibility of furthering this historical verification to collect enough correlating elements. It is thus that the Saturn-Neptune cycle will become the primary terrain I explore.
 
Early–mid 1950s.

The twentieth issue of Cahiers Astrologiques (March-April 1949) presents, under the title "Planetary Cycles", my first interpretation of a whole pattern of cycles, including the Saturn-Neptune cycle, roughly deciphered. I awaited the new Saturn-Neptune conjunction of 1952-1953 to give my first prognosis, published in the newspaper L'Yonne Républicaine of January 1st, 1953. We will look at this text a bit further on after having discussed the conjunction of 1989. But the indication of the year 1989 arises. It is only accurate in relation to the deadline, to the historical fall of revolutionary tendencies. All the same, 34 years ahead! This is dealt with on page 189 of my Défense et Illustration de l'Astrologie (Defense and Illustration of Astrology), published by Grasset (Paris) in 1955 (out of print).
 
Revolts, Revolutionaries, Ideologies, and Revolutions
vs. the 36-Year Conjunction Cycle of Saturn and Neptune.
 
This text follows the presentation of the last six meetings or conjunctions of these two planets, Saturn and Neptune, which reoccur every 36 years, accompanied by collective uprisings or revolutionary movements. Hence the justification of this first text in question: During the conjunction of 1952-53, Stalin dies and the soviet Union is in full metamorphosis: the country begins a new cycle which will lead it to the cardinal date of 1989.

It is in Les Astres et l'Histoire (The Stars and History, Paris, Pauvert, 1967, out of print) that one will find all the historical documentation which I have patiently accumulated about our cycle in a series of accounts: the conjunctions of 1773 to 1953; the successive aspects of the cycles of 1846-1882, 1882-1917, 1917-1953, and 1953...; the conjunctions of Mars and Neptune since 1933, the oppositions of the Sun and Neptune since 1933 and the oppositions of Mars and Neptune since 1941, as well as the Revolution of 1848. It is based on this type of historical confrontations that one can claim a real correlation which authorizes the prognosis.

Thus we arrive at the second formulation of the prediction relative to 1989. This can be found on page 139 of the work published by Payot (Paris) in 1973: Le Pronostic Expérimental en Astrologie (Experimental Prediction in Astrology, out of print). So, sixteen years ahead of time! This is the text:

The second prediction relates to the conjunction of Saturn and Neptune, and was published in the newspaper L'Yonne Républicaine of January 1st, 1953: due to the fact that the Russian communist party was born under the conjunction of 1881, and that it seized power during that of 1917, one must assume that the year 1953 will be of prime importance to the Soviet Union. In fact the Soviet Regime finds itself simultaneously at the beginning and the end of the cycle. Being at the end, one can expect an inner reorganization of the State or of the Kremlin. As the cycle begins again, one must foresee a new development in the communist cause or at least in the revolutionary one of the world. The Soviet political system will find favorable responses in nations which previously had been hostile or indifferent to it...

To the surprise of the whole world, Stalin dies on March 5th, 1953: the inauguration of a new era for the USSR and communism. In addition, Moscow discovers a new revolutionary vocation by supporting the causes for decolonization and nationalism in Afro-Asian countries; it puts an end to its isolationism by engaging in political solidarity with the nascent Third World.

Due to this success, shall I be granted more credit if I seriously view the upcoming conjunction of Saturn and Neptune in 1989 as the sign of a new "grand premiere" in the destiny of the Soviet Union or world communism? My intention here had been, deliberately, to succeed in predicting two immediately successive, similar operations with the repetition of the same phenomenon. In the same work, still 16 years ahead of time, I had to inquire further into the adventures of predictions in a chapter devoted to "historical circumstances".

I had first presented two preceding stages: the fluctuating metamorphosis due to the beginning of a new world-crisis for 1975, as well as the planetary concentration at the root of the crisis of 1982-1983, the critical time of the Euromissile confrontation (the economy of the "socialist camp" of Eastern Europe likewise seriously affected by the recession of 1980-1982 which it had not pulled itself out of, and it is this collapse that was the principal cause of the weariness of the people and their defection from their regimes). It is this chart, of 1989, which I finally presented:
 
1989: Triple Conjunction of Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune in Capricorn, 
in Opposition to Jupiter in Cancer, while Pluto is in Scorpio.
 
This astrological chart was accompanied by the following comment (p. 222):

Within a brief time we shall discover an exceptional planetary trio: Saturn, Uranus and Neptune will meet at the beginning of Capricorn during the years 1988 and 1989, the more significant being the year 1989 with its triple Jupiterian opposition to this conjunction. It is here that the fate of humanity for the entire 21st century could be fixed. We have seen our modern capitalist society evolve throughout the large Uranus-Neptune cycle since the beginning of last century. We have also seen the start of the last Saturn-Uranus conjunction in 1942, as well as the last Saturn-Neptune conjunction in 1953, the USA. on one side and the USSR on the other having launched a competition for world supremacy or to formulate a universal society. However, these two participants arrive here at the end of the race at the same point and at the same time, as though to melt into one single current. This final joint destination of 1989 is the date the world may tend to give birth to a new society. Therefore, the great rendez-vous of our history tends to show itself, after the profound upheaval of 1982-1983, at the time of this triple astral intersection...

This is a conclusion I had already drawn 21 years beforehand when I mentioned in Les Astres et l'Histoire, Paris, Pauvert, 1967, p.297:

...This triple planetary encounter, the most important astral reunion of the entire twentieth century... two historical uprisings... the American and the Russian, under the principles of capitalism and communism... these two participants are both at the end of the race for the final destination of 1988-89, at which time the world will renew itself to give birth to a new society. Undoubtedly, this great meeting in our history thus tends to presenting itself at this triple linear intersection from 1988 to 1992.
 
» Knowing that the present Uranus-Neptune cycle evolves parallel to the fortunes and misfortunes of our capitalist society, and likewise that the Saturn-Uranus cycles emphasize the characteristic of the "right" of this society: imperialist, totalitarian, fascist, like the Saturn-Neptune cycles, phases specific to the "left": unionist, socialist, communist, one can conceive that the fusion at the same time and at the same place of these three cycles may represent a time of prime importance for the renewal of today's world. «
And in the same book, page 299:

...the great metamorphosis of society occurs thanks to a fusion, a synthesis where Neptune assimilates Uranus, which is to say where the new society takes from the old and is much less the antagonist than the successor; and this is the very image of the linear trace of currents which converge at the same time and in the same place, as two contributaries would join into a river.

 When one knows that under the leadership or the near-benediction of the USSR, itself subjected to an essential mutation of society, all the countries of the East European bloc have, so to speak, converted themselves, have packed up and are going over to the Western virtues of democracy the "iron curtain" having disappeared the image of the fusion of historical currents into one river becomes quite relevant one is already talking about a project for a confederation of a Europe spanning the area from the Atlantic to the Urals: whatever the new tendency of the world society may be, it remains polarized between its aspirations to the right and to the left.

 A new version a few years later. We are in 1980, still nine years ahead of history. In a work that appears in a book-club edition, Nostradamus, I am induced to write a chapter entitled "The Destiny of the Soviet Union". Calling on the help of astrology from around the world and evoking my experimentation in predicting the cycle (the last to date in issue no. 48 of L'Astrologue (The Astrologer) with the announcement of a new tension in the Saturn-Neptune square, coinciding with the Polish crisis and the Russian intervention in Afghanistan), I came to the following conclusion:

The one who experiences such an adventure ends up acquiring a certain serenity of thought. One can believe in it or not: that changes nothing.

There is absolutely no doubt about the fact that the Soviet Union will have to experience a decisive turning point in its history as the Saturn-Neptune cycle renews itself with the conjunction of 1989. In addition, circumstances will be such that this large conjunction will take place at the same time and at the same place as two other do, preceded by a Saturn-Uranus conjunction (in a cycle of 45 years) in 188 and followed by a Uranus-Neptune conjunction (a cycle of 171 years) in 1992. Which is to say that this triple astral reunion announces a great planetary upheaval and a change in society for the years 1988-1992, spreading throughout the whole world and concerning Russia in particular. The astronomical phenomenon relative to this country is centered between December 1989 and March 1990.

Moreover, this is the same opinion I have always espoused throughout various international conferences. In October 1983 in Capri, I gave a talk on "The ultimate turning point of 1990" by reproducing the planetary alignment of fall 1939. Here is the interpretation I gave:

Such a configuration calls into question the various pieces of the planetary cycles regarding, each one of them, a particular historical movement: Europe with the Jupiter-Saturn cycle, the USA. with the Saturn-Uranus cycle, the USSR. with the Saturn-Neptune cycle, the entire modern capitalist society with the Uranus-Neptune cycle... Synthetically, it represents a large historical cross-roads where all these forces are gathered together to live out a unique history with various facets and numerous manifestations.

This is the same figure I represented again in November 1985 in Rio de Janeiro by specifying that these six planetary cycles were "reunited in a common existential moment resembling a historical upheaval which ends in a profound general revival of world society". In a previous conference given in 1983 in Stuttgart on "The Destiny of Europe" I was already able to pinpoint the interplanetary node:

... It is easy to understand that the opposition of Jupiter and Saturn in the midst of this unity announces the risk Europe is running of being the stage of a general societal upheaval.

And when, in May 1987 in Zurich, I gave a talk on "The Saturn-Uranus-Neptune Encounter", I was careful to specify:

And now we are facing a second Saturn-Neptune conjunction. No doubt that it forecasts a new critical stage for the Soviet Union. Likewise it may also signify diverse revolutionary movements in the world. For the Soviet Union, must one take the policy of democratization begun by the new chief of the Kremlin Mikhail Gorbachev seriously? Perhaps it is this change, fundamentally, which is appearing on the horizon. Gorbachev could do what Khrushchev was unable to do because he has arrived at the time of this conjunction.

And likewise, in September 1988 in Vienna, taking up a text from L'Astrologue (no.80, 4th quarter, 1987):

Does the present Saturn-Neptune conjunction not announce the success of Gorbachev's perestroika? Who knows if these changes will not erase the world division inherited from World War II and from the Yalta treaty? For instance, in respect to a future integration of the economy of the Soviet Bloc (Comecon) into the world market, the Soviet Union changes from the enemy of yesterday to a "partnership" rôle, as the great powers of the free world are to each other.

Must one believe that I was delivering banalities there? In fact the whole world was surprised, astonished by the avalanche of events which occurred between September and December 1989. As for us astrologers, however, were we surprised? It is time to evoke that as the deadline of the events approached, I insisted upon the possibility that we would experience a particular kind of revolutionary climate. In the "Saturn-Uranus-Neptune Meeting" in L'Astrologue no. 80, 4th quarter, 1987, I already attribute a double manifestation to the conjunction of Saturn and Neptune:

There is no doubt that this announces a new crucial step for the Soviet Union, a wave of renewal. In the same way, this can also signify a surge of revolutionary movements throughout the world.

But I was to reach a conclusion permitting me to entitle my article in issue no. 85 of L'Astrologue (1st quarter, 1989) "The Turmoils of 1989-1990", which announced the following:

So the only Jupiter-Saturn opposition in itself (September 1989 to July 1990) informs us of a critical turning point for the European Community, directly linked to the new crisis and condemned to undergo a major trial before presenting itself at its historical deadline in 1992.

Above all, it must be remembered that Jupiter will pass opposite the Saturn-Neptune conjunction at the same period, from September 1989 to July 1990. (...) This could mean a period of revolutionary currents leading up to an explosion, with possible mass demonstrations in the streets, with the risk of the powers being overthrown. One thinks of the possibility of such feats in countries which are being stifled like Romania, the countries of Eastern Europe being maintained under the iron collar, such as Czechoslovakia.

Just as the Byzantium of 1453, this is the real collapse of an empire which the world will be facing throughout this memorable year of 1989. And it will be the end of an entire age... the post-war era finished. The historical breach began in October, but the change had started in the USSR. itself the head of the procession in the Spring of 1989. After the novelty of legislative elections throughout the whole country, Moscow establishes a parliament where an active opposition makes itself heard. It was followed by Poland where, after the triumphant Solidarity elections, the country endows itself on August 19th with a non-communist prime minister at the head of a government encompassing all tendencies.
 
 
Mid 1990s.
 
However, the pace quickens with a sudden surge in the exodus of East Germans to the West in September and October. Those who do not leave decide to take to the streets and make themselves heard through protest marches. On October 9th, they already number 70,000 in Leipzig. From that time on, the GDR is at the core of events. Every Monday they march by the half-millions in Leipzig, Dresden and East Berlin. The storm on the Communists has begun. Everyone is in the streets (one million on November 4th in East Berlin) and they are formidable; the regime cracks. 
 
On November 9th the Berlin Wall is forced to open after the resignation of the Communist Party. Venus traverses the Uranus-Saturn-Neptune conjunction at the same time as the Sun and Mercury are in alignment with Pluto. Such a breach in this wall is the vertiginous historical torrent which removes the barriers of the post-war world. Hence these comments by the press: "the days that are shaking the world"; "the communist world is coming apart before our eyes"; "history is catching the whole world unawares with the collapse of the communist system"; "the disintegration of the East Bloc is occurring at a breathtaking rate"...

All of Eastern Europe is shaken by this upheaval. Having already joined the fun with a jubilant population, Hungary opens its borders and endows itself with a new governing power on October 23rd. The Berlin Wall crossed on November 17th, people take to the streets massively in Bulgaria, which in turn shakes the Stalinist foundations. On the same day 40,000 students march in Prague. On the 24th, under breathtaking popular pressure from a rebellious Prague, the entire head of the Czechoslovakia Communist Party resigns. However, it took seven large gatherings, a general strike on the 27th and new threats (they are demonstrating in snow flurries) to overthrow the regime. 
 
Marxism is in agony: the communist parties are dissolving; Honecker, Kádár, Husák and Zhivkov, who had been in power for many decades, are swept away by this same storm. All the countries abolish the leading role of the communist party, install new heads from all political horizons and fix their calendars for free elections. The climax was to occur with the passage of Mercury and the Sun in alignment with the Uranus-Saturn-Neptune trio. In its turn, Romania begins reacting on December 16th: within six days its dreadful dictatorship collapses. A summoning of the Bucharest population to acclaim the Ceaușescu couple on the large square of the capital turns into a general booing. The challenge has begun with a general insurrection (they will demonstrate by -20°C), leading to the arrest of the Ceaușescus on the 22nd and their execution on the 25th.

Under the same solar transit in January, in addition to the movements in Albania and Yugoslavia, which has joined the system of parties and the continuing demonstrations in the free countries, the rebellion filters into the USSR. itself simultaneously agreeing to a military retreat from Hungary and being affronted by the same demand from Czechoslovakia with the secession of the Lithuanian Communist Party, demonstrations of secession in Mongolia and a civil war in Azerbaijan: these are the remnants of the "broken empire" which looms on the horizon...

At the end of this experience, who can deny that the mere observation of the planetary positions enables one to establish a chronology of the future in advance? We will have achieved our goal: to demonstrate the credibility of astrology in relation to today's history and, at the same time, to have experimental prediction become the most efficient means of persuasion, as well as the highest and purest intellectual adventure of astrology. 

Quoted from:
André Barbault (1990) - History of a Prediction.
[Histoire d’une prévision, 
first published in L’Astrologue, no. 89, 1er trimestre, Paris, 1990.]
 
See also:
 
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The Saturn-Neptune Conjunction on February 20, 2026

The above geopolitical cycle model developed by André Barbault correlates major transformations with long planetary cycles, especially the geocentric 36-year conjunction cycle of Saturn and Neptune, historically associated with ideological restructuring of states and political systems

It is important to recognize that in both geocentric and heliocentric mundane astrology, outer-planet cycles—such as the conjunction of Saturn and Neptune—describe broad rhythms of global historical development rather than events confined to the USSR, Russia, or any other single empire, state, nation, or civilization (as is the case in natal astrology applied to states, nations, etc.). 
Saturn represents structure, boundaries, authority, governments, discipline, death, and the weight of material reality, as well as time. Neptune signifies dreams, illusions, disillusionment, ideology, deception, oil, religion, and the transcendent—along with spirituality. When these two planets conjoin, a collision occurs between the real and the ideal: old structures dissolve, new visions emerge, and the line between liberation and tyranny becomes increasingly blurred.
Saturn-Neptune 
conjunction on February 20, 2026.
The latest Saturn-Neptune conjunction occurred on February 20, 2026 at 0° Aries, the Aries Point traditionally linked with events of global manifestation. This alignment inaugurated a new Saturn–Neptune cycle extending roughly from 2026 to 2062 and therefore marks a probable phase of systemic ideological and institutional reorganization comparable in structural significance to earlier conjunction periods such as 1917 and 1989.

The broader planetary configuration intensifies the importance of this reset (see table below). Pluto entered Aquarius in 2024, a transit associated with technological transformation, mass mobilization, and redistribution of political power that lasts into the 2040s. 

Neptune is moving into Aries in 2025–2026, symbolizing ideological mobilization and the emergence of new collective narratives, while Saturn also enters Aries in 2026, imposing institutional pressure and forcing structural redefinition of political authority. At the same time Uranus enters Gemini in 2026, historically correlated with communication revolutions and geopolitical confrontation; previous passages coincided with the American Revolutionary era and the Second World War. 

The simultaneous ingress of several outer planets during the mid-2020s therefore indicates a rare generational transition affecting technological systems, ideological structures, and geopolitical balances.
 The February 2026 Saturn–Neptune conjunction marks the opening of a new ideological cycle. The most volatile
interval will be approximately 2025–2030, when structural tensions manifest through wars, crises and systemic
reorganization, followed by institutional consolidation and a new world order between roughly 2032 and 2035. 
Within this configuration the latest Saturn–Neptune conjunction functions as the cycle’s ignition point. Conjunction phases historically coincide with dissolution of prevailing ideological frameworks and the emergence of new political narratives. When combined with Pluto in Aquarius and Uranus in Gemini, the interval from roughly 2025 to 2027 appears as the principal systemic shock phase. 

Short-term activations occur when faster bodies cross the conjunction degree: transits of Mars and the Sun in February–March 2026 and again during mid-2026, when Mars forms tense aspects with Uranus, represent a trigger windows during which underlying structural tensions manifest through political crises, financial disruptions, and abrupt internal, regional, and global geopolitical confrontations.
 
After the conjunction the cycle normally enters a formative phase lasting several years. Between approximately 2028 and 2031 the developing Saturn–Neptune dynamic may manifest as ideological polarization and attempts to construct new institutional frameworks. 

Uranus advancing through Gemini emphasizes technological rivalry, cyber conflict, and strategic competition in communications and artificial intelligence, while Pluto in Aquarius intensifies collective movements and challenges entrenched hierarchies of power. The interaction of these cycles suggests a period in which nations, states, and civilizations experience pronounced internal political tension while simultaneously confronting structural competition within an evolving multipolar and eurasiacentric international system.
By the early 2030s this cycle tends toward consolidation. From roughly 2032 to 2035 the ideological and institutional structures that emerge from the earlier crisis phase are likely to stabilize, producing revised political doctrines, new geopolitical alignments, or reconfigured economic frameworks. Historical precedents indicate that such consolidation does not necessarily imply decline; states, nations, and civilizations often emerge from these cycles transformed but institutionally durable. 
Nevertheless, the concentration of outer-planet transitions in the mid-2020s implies that the interval from about 2025 to 2030 represents the most volatile portion of the Saturn–Neptune cycle. In strict cyclical terms, this period constitutes the window in which all states, nations, and civilizations in the international system most likely encounter a decisive ideological and structural turning point shaping the political order of the subsequent decades.
See also:
 
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Since 1917, Saturn–Neptune alignments have repeatedly coincided with periods of upheaval in Iran involving foreign powers and energy. From the 1917 conjunction in Leo—marked by World War I, foreign occupation, famine, and the Balfour Declaration—to the 1952–53 conjunction in Libra and the MI6/CIA-backed coup against Prime Minister Mossadegh following oil nationalization; from the 1979 square, coinciding with the Islamic Revolution, to the 1989 conjunction in Capricorn, which reshaped leadership and regional strategy—these patterns appear to converge again in the 2026 conjunction in Aries, associated with airstrikes, retaliation, and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz that threaten a global oil crisis.

Monday, January 26, 2026

The Return of Great Spaces | Pierre-Antoine Plaquevent

One century ago, the continentalist school of geopolitics proposed a world-system organized into pan-regions (Haushofer): an international order divided into large, autonomous continental spaces (Carl Schmitt), each polarized around a core power. This third way—between the nation-state nationalism rendered obsolete after the First World War and the globalism of the League of Nations—is once again presenting itself today as an updated alternative to a declining globalism.

One's utopia is the other's dystopia: A world divided among five superstates.
Austro-Japanese aristocrat Richard von Coudenhove-Kalergi's 1923 world map.
 
Regional imperialisms that restrain one another, rather than a hypocritical, monopolar planetary imperialism. Logically, if the United States were truly to accept a division of the world into autonomous great spaces, it would have to leave eastern Ukraine to Russia and Taiwan to China, in exchange for the abandonment of Sino-Russian influence in Latin America. Above all, it would have to restrain Israel in its posture towards Iran.

China, Russia, and Iran are the strategic powers that dominate the Eurasian heartland. A stabilized world order is possible only if the United States recognizes the respective spheres of influence of the Eurasian powers. This is the logical corollary of the updated Monroe Doctrine to which the Trump administration refers. Yet the history of the previous century shows that a thalassocracy of inherently globalist character does not accept a US retreat to the Western Hemisphere alone. The near future will tell us whether what is currently unfolding in Latin America marks a genuine US acceptance of a new post-globalist division of the world or the prologue to a broader conflagration.

» "Great North"—Russia, the United States, and Europe, forming a common sociocultural space. «
Vladislav Surkov, 2023.
 
The realistic scenario would thus be a division of the world into longitudinal corridors of influence among the powers of the “Global North” (Surkov), coupled with the construction of a multipolar world order of great powers that would definitively replace the faltering project of global governance. The pessimistic scenario, by contrast, would be that the move against Venezuela foreshadows an attack on Iran, after having seized control of the principal ally of political Eurasia in the southern part of the Western Hemisphere.

 
» The logic of great spaces does not have a universalist scope. The paradigm is no longer national, but spatial.  « Carl Schmitt, 1941.
 
See also:
Pierre-Antoine Plaquevent (born 1976) is a French geopolitical analyst, specializing on the intersection of infowarfare and the evolution of political philosophy. He is the founder of Strategika, a think tank and editorial platform that provides prospective analysis on international security and metapolitics.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Preventing Empire Collapse | Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou

The new 33-page US National Security Strategy, strongly shaped by Elbridge Colby and personally prefaced by President Trump, represents a partial yet still incomplete departure from three decades of neoconservative pursuit of hegemony. Officially released on December 4, it explicitly renounces any further quest for global domination, acknowledges that post-1991 globalism hollowed out American industry while delivering few benefits to ordinary citizens, and ultimately weakened the United States itself. It faults an over-reliance on allies and proxies that Washington could not fully control—pointedly implying Israel and European-driven adventures in Ukraine—for repeatedly pulling America into conflicts that did not serve its core interests.
 
» The unipolar era is over. «
» The unipolar era is over. « 
 
In place of hegemony, the document calls for aggressive domestic reindustrialization, technological supremacy, and a return to traditional spheres-of-influence politics. It resurrects an explicitly imperial interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, insisting that no external great power may have any presence whatsoever in the Western Hemisphere and that the United States must maintain absolute predominance there. At the same time, it insists that America must remain the world’s foremost military and economic power and must permanently prevent any rival from ever attaining the degree of primacy the United States itself enjoyed in recent decades.

» Extraordinarily harsh toward European leadership and the EU. «
»
 
Extraordinarily harsh toward European leadership and the EU. «
 
China continues to be treated as the sole peer competitor capable of achieving parity or even supremacy; opposition to Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland remains a clear priority, revealing no substantive softening despite changed rhetoric. Russia, by contrast, is now a power with which the United States must seek accommodation and continental stability. The document is extraordinarily harsh toward European leadership and the European Union, accusing Brussels of delusional thinking on Russia and Ukraine, economic self-destruction, creeping authoritarianism, and the erosion of European civilization itself. Stabilizing Europe, it argues, requires ending the Ukraine war in partnership with the continent’s other great power—Russia.
 
The new operating model abandons the image of America as a "weary Titan" bearing the world’s burdens alone. Instead, Washington will concentrate on its own hemispheric backyard while outsourcing or franchising security responsibilities elsewhere: Europe is expected to provide for its own defense, Asia will be handled by regional proxies, Africa reduced to transactional resource partnerships, and the Middle East treated as a complicated but no longer central theater. These partners will still answer to the United States and pay their dues, yet day-to-day management becomes their problem.

Historically, this precise pattern—admitting overextension, rejecting free-trade globalism, demanding allied burden-sharing while assuming continued overall control, and invoking the "weary Titan" metaphor—appeared during the terminal phases of both the British Empire under Joseph Chamberlain in the 1890s–1900s and the Spanish Empire under Gaspar de Guzmán, Count-Duke of Olivares in the 17th century. In both cases the reforms were offered as salvation but in reality signaled irreversible imperial decline.

» Explicitly imperial interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. «
» Explicitly imperial interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. «
 
The strategy is riddled with contradictions. While calling for stabilization with Russia, Pentagon sources simultaneously press Europe to be combat-ready against Moscow by 2027; Europeans counter that 2030 is more realistic, and Viktor Orbán openly states that the official EU position is preparation for war with Russia by that later date. The unspoken American ultimatum to Europe is therefore: achieve full military self-sufficiency on Washington’s timeline or the United States will negotiate directly with Moscow over Europe’s head and end the Ukraine conflict on Russia’s terms. Given Europe’s incapacity to meet that deadline, the second path becomes the default—yet powerful entrenched forces in Washington, Brussels, and the broader transatlantic apparatus remain committed to perpetual confrontation with Russia and containment of Russia.

» Franchising security responsibilities elsewhere. « Joseph-Noel Sylvestre "The Plunder of Rome"
»
 
Franchising security responsibilities elsewhere. «
 
The document is ultimately a fragile compromise between a small restraint-oriented faction and the far larger interventionist bureaucracy. History suggests the bureaucracy will prevail, just as it defeated Chamberlain and Olivares. Moscow and Beijing instantly recognize the contradiction of a United States that urges its vassals to keep fighting while posing as the reasonable party seeking stability; they will not be deceived. Russia, in particular, reads the American declaration that peace in Ukraine and stabilized relations with Moscow are now core US interests as confirmation that time is on its side, that it can stand firm on all demands, and that Washington will eventually concede because it is the United States, not Russia, that now needs the war to end.

Thus, while the 2025 National Security Strategy marks the intellectual arrival of restraint-oriented thinking inside parts of the American national-security establishment and constitutes an official admission that the unipolar era is over, its internal contradictions and the entrenched power of the old order make it unlikely to survive in anything like its present form. Like its British and Spanish predecessors, it may ultimately be remembered less as the blueprint for managed retrenchment than as one of the first formal acknowledgments that American hegemony has irrevocably ended.
 
Reference:

Thursday, October 9, 2025

The West's Dystopia: War, Fragmentation, and Perversity | Emmanuel Todd

Trump’s perversity is unfolding in the Middle East, NATO’s warmongering in Europe. [...] Such is our world as we approach 2026. The dislocation of the West takes the form of a ‘hierarchical fracture’.

» One of the fundamental concepts of the West’s defeat is nihilism.  «

The United States is giving up control of Russia and, I increasingly believe, of China. Blockaded by China for its imports of samarium, a rare earth element essential to military aeronautics, the United States can no longer dream of confronting China militarily. The rest of the world – India, Brazil, the Arab world, Africa – is taking advantage of this and slipping away. But the United States is turning vigorously against its European and East Asian ‘allies’ in a final effort at overexploitation and, it must be admitted, out of sheer spite. To escape their humiliation, to hide their weakness from the world and from themselves, they are punishing Europe. The Empire is devouring itself. This is the meaning of the tariffs and forced investments imposed by Trump on Europeans, who have become colonial subjects in a shrinking empire rather than partners. The era of liberal democracies standing in solidarity is over.

 
[...] Cutting the European continent in half economically was an act of suicidal madness. [...] The rage resulting from defeat is leading each country to turn against those weaker than itself in order to vent its resentment. The United States is turning against Europe and Japan. France is reactivating its conflict with Algeria, its former colony. There is no doubt that Germany, which, from Scholz to Merz, has agreed to obey the United States, will turn its humiliation against its weaker European partners. My own country, France, seems to me to be the most threatened.
 

[...] One of the interesting features of America today is that its leaders are finding it increasingly difficult to distinguish between internal and external issues, despite MAGA’s attempt to stop immigration from the south with a wall. The army fires on boats leaving Venezuela, bombs Iran, enters the centres of Democratic cities in the United States, and sponsors the Israeli air force for an attack on Qatar, where there is a huge American base. Any science fiction reader will recognise in this disturbing list the beginnings of a descent into dystopia, that is, a negative world where power, fragmentation, hierarchy, violence, poverty and perversity intermingle.
 
So let us remain ourselves, outside America. Let us retain our perception of the inside and the outside, our sense of proportion, our contact with reality, our conception of what is right and beautiful. Let us not allow ourselves to be dragged into a headlong rush to war by our own European leaders, those privileged individuals lost in history, desperate at having been defeated, terrified at the idea of one day being judged by their peoples. And above all, above all, let us continue to reflect on the meaning of things.

(from the preface to the 2025 Slovenian publication of La Défaite de l'Occident) 

Emmanuel Todd, one of the last phenotypical old-school French intellectuals, is a historian, sociologist, demographer, statistician, anthropologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) in Paris. A prominent critic of the US, globalization, and European integration, he is best known for predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union (La Chute Finale, 1976), After the Empire (2002) and his 2024 book The Defeat of the West

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Civilization End: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire | Jiang Xueqin

Americans want to feel virtuous. But as America becomes poorer and more desperate, this virtue will fade away, and the raw, brutal power of America will express itself throughout the world.

Jiang Xueqin, a Yale graduate with a B.A. in English Literature, is a Beijing-based former Deputy Principal at Tsinghua University High School, and education reformer. Today, he independently teaches anthropology, philosophy, history, and geopolitics to Beijing high school students and runs an English YouTube channel on "Predictive History," using historical patterns, game theory, and geopolitics to forecast global events.
This will eventually lead to the final conflict — the war between Iran and the United States. Iran has been preparing for this for a long time, and ever since 1979, America has been preparing too. This conflict will be World War III, and I cannot overstate how brutal this conflict will be. 
 
It will bring fundamental changes to the world, and our lives will never be the same again. Everything we have known in the past will be gone forever, and we must prepare for a new future. I know this is depressing. This last year we have gone into the heart of darkness of humanity, and the world looks more and more terrible. But remember this — and this is my final message to you: 
 
The greatest minds of humanity — Homer, Dante, Immanuel Kant — have all told us the same thing. They have all revealed one secret of the universe, one message: imagination is the animating force of the universe, and love is the unifying force of the universe.

What this means is this: in the darkest times, when all hope seems lost and there is only despair, any of us can rise up, stand up, and be the light to lead us forward. That is the task ahead of us if we are to save us. So remember this: we all have the capacity to imagine, and we all have the capacity to love. That is what makes us human. In the worst times, we must defend our own humanity.