German DAX: Gloom, Boom and Doom | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 02, 2016) - There is no question in most commentator's minds that the growth in Germany has certainly slowed relative to what this great country has enjoyed in the 20th century […] The reason for my post about Germany is because the first domino to fall in the upcoming financial calamity seems to be Deutsche Bank […] The upcoming calamity is not going to be like 2008 which was merely a correction of the 18 year cycle. The decline is likely […] of the 324 year cycle and will make 2008 seem like a tiny little hick up within the unraveling of a much larger cycle correction.

[…] The German DAX is likely to not only decline but have an outright collapse of a magnitude not witnessed in our lives. The S&P/DAX ratio is in favor of the S&P which suggests that we are likely to see a larger decline in Germany. 

German Stocks In Trend Limbo
Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr.

Dubai Financial Market Index: 70% Decline Expected | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 01, 2016) - As visible the immediate projection for the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) is a similar catastrophe as 2008! This would mean that the money to be spent on the new projects and on the infrastructure for the Expo 2020 is certainly not enough to keep the economy going. Our conservative projection is a 70% decline from current levels despite all the money being spent. The world expo in Dubai will occur at a time when the global economy will be at distress and hence revenues will likely not make up for the costs of hosting the event and will most likely lead to another Dubai debt crisis. 

 

In April 2006 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presented the above close-up of two "Skyscraper" tip-offs [Malaysia's Petronas Towers and Taiwan's Taipei 101] and wrote: "Everything points to a similar fate in Dubai", and that Burj Dubai would "open its doors in the aftermath of the bull market that gave rise to its creation".

DJIA: Bullish Into Q1-2 Next Year | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Aug 19, 2016) - I am expecting a peak [in the DJIA] in the first-second quarter of next year [2017] and I believe it will be the peak of this century [...] Volatility will likely make a new historic high once the peak is realized as will be presented shortly. Let us first look at the DJIA from an Elliott wave perspective: 

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I believe that we are terminating an impulsive advance from an Elliott wave perspective, this impulsive advance is the fifth wave of grandsupercycle degree [...] Another scary aspect of the chart above is the extended fifth wave that occurred from the lows in 1974 to where we stand today. R.N. Elliott warned about what usually occurs after a fifth wave extension since it is usually followed by a crash. Once we look at the projection lines we will notice such an outcome is highly likely based on our volatility forecast. The target for the correction after a fifth wave extension is the range of the second wave which brings us to the 1000-770 price range. Such a forecast for the Dow is certainly scary and I am not brave enough to make such a cataclysmic call which is why I will wait for the patterns to unfold to obtain more accurate price targets. It is important to know that the US stock market is likely to be the out-performer as indicated in one of my previous posts (The American S&P and German Dax ratio) in which I analyzed a ratio of the DJIA with the German DAX. If such a target is expected in terms of the DJIA one can only imagine what will occur to the European indices. I still prefer a German DAX short once the peak is in since one will make money from a higher EURO and a larger percentage drop. Let us now take a look at the shorter term wave count.

The shorter term wave count suggests that the DJIA is in its fifth wave of intermediate degree to terminate the primary degree rally from 2009 which will in itself terminate a cycle degree advance that started in 1974 which will itself terminate a supercycle degree advance that started in 1932 which will itself terminate a grand supercycle degree move that started in 1784. The cycles mentioned on many previous posts on this blog support that fact. I believe that such a large and historic top will end in weakness rather than strength. This is why I am preferring an ending diagonal scenario for the fifth wave of intermediate degree. I am certain that the correction that is about to unfold will be the largest correction in US history. This is a time to be cautious from equities and to try our best to avoid the calamity.

The first chart below presents an overlay of the 1920s bull market with the one seen since late 2011. Both bull markets occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance hence their high correlation (9 year cycle). The correlation is almost 80%! This projection line suggests that a peak is likely in the first quarter of next year. This conclusion is supported by a projection line of the 18 month cycle that started in 1971 which is presented below.

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The correlation of the 18 month cycle of the early 70's bull market while gold was selling off is very high and similar to the bull market that started early this year (middle chart above). They both occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance and hence their 80%+ correlation. Both indicators are bullish going into the new year and suggests that the current 'worst' part of the year is likely to disappoint those that strictly follow the annual cycle as it has proven to do so already.
 
The third chart above shows my volatility projection as well as the projection line of the late 20's. The volatility indicator was obtained from two 9 year cycles of a similar cyclical circumstance to where we stand today. The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected.

SPX vs Inverted 354 CD (Lunar Year) Cycle

The Lunar Year Cycle (Medium Term Delta) seems to have inverted recently (from L-L and H-H polarity to L-H and H-L polarity).
If the current polarity persists a major high in the S&P500 by mid August is likely.

SPY | Neural Network-Forecast | by Alphee Lavoie

New Insights in Commodities | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Jul 1, 2016) - The first chart is a synthetic chart of commodities. The way it was constructed was by isolating the second 18 year cycle of three 54 year cycle. The reason why I extracted the second 18 year cycle is because this is the cycle we are in right now in terms of commodities hence it should be correlated more with its counterpart in past 54 year cycles. I have also altered the length of the cycles to match the current average length of the 18 year cycle which is approximately 14.4 years. I then combined those cycles together in order to get a continuous series so I can isolate the cycle via spectral analysis and run neural network models on this particular position of the Kondratieff wave. The indicator that you see above is a neural network model with an 14.4 year cycle used as an input and the detrended zigzag as the output. This indicator's turning point should mimic those in the future provided that no significant changes occur to the length of the nominal 18 year wave. The second chart depicts the dates more clearly.

It is worth mentioning that the 14.4 year cycle with 4 harmonics was used as the input rather than just one harmonic, the reason for this was to aid us in depicted the peaks and troughs of the cycles smaller than the 14.4 year wave. As is visible on the chart above, we seem to have a clear path in the CRB index until late 2017. The projection also suggests that 2018 is likely to be a bad year for commodities. This correction should then be followed by a move into 4th quarter of 2020 followed by a correction to 2022 and so on (third chart).

In the neural network model below the price chart is an up percentage move indicator (fourth chart). It is calculated by having the cycle as an input and measuring the position of moves of over 7% a month and projecting something similar for the future of the current cycle. The likelihood of large percentage months on a closing basis is greatest from here going into mid 2019. Hence capital is best allocated in the commodity market now rather than chase the move after most of the large percentage gains have already been realized (fourth chart).

This indicator (fourth chart) is a forecast of the volatility index indicator using the same input as the charts above. It seems evident that the likelihood of high volatility is greatest from now going into 2020. This would mean that the purchase of call options are likely to be a better play than their sale in the upcoming environment. Trading in expectation of low volatility will probabalisticly lead to a loss going into 2020.