Namzes's analysis maintains a bearish intermediate-term outlook for US equities, despite the potential for a short-term oversold relief rally following the November 3 (Tue) elections. The expected 3.5-year cycle (Kitchin Cycle) low remains unconfirmed, leaving the market vulnerable to another sharp decline. QQQ, SMH and IWM are testing their 200-day moving averages, and breaks of critical support could trigger deeper declines toward their outstanding 40-week cycle targets. The next ideal 20-week cycle low is projected around November 20 (Fri), coinciding with November options expiration (OpEx), potentially marking a resumption of weakness following the anticipated post-election bounce.
SPX (S&P 500): The 80-day cycle downside target of 7,433–7,633 has been reached at its lower boundary. The critical pivot is 7,300; a break below it would expose 7,000, corresponding to the first-quarter highs. The next potential cycle low is expected around November 20.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): A break below the 200-day moving average near 677 would expose the July low at 661. Further downside cycle targets are 649–670 (80-day), 665–684 (20-week), and 664–699 (40-week). A weekly breakout area near 637 represents another important support level. Conversely, a recovery above 725 (50-day moving average) would improve the technical outlook, while a close above 734 would substantially increase the probability of a return to all-time highs.
Russell 2000.
IWM (Russell 2000): All short-term downside targets through the 20-week cycle have been met. However, the outstanding 40-week cycle target remains 244–263. The 200-day moving average near 279 is the immediate pivot, while a break below 271.60 would open the way toward 244. A move above 285 would improve the bullish outlook.SMH (Semiconductors): Its cycle structure and downside projections are broadly similar to QQQ.
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Seasonality and Positioning
October 28–November 6 represents a historically strong seasonal window, potentially supporting a post-election rebound. A secondary seasonal low is projected around November 20. Commitments of Traders data show dealers heavily short Nasdaq futures, while asset managers, CTAs and retail traders hold historically elevated combined long positions. Dealer positioning also suggests potential relative outperformance in small caps, even if the broader market continues declining.
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