Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year: 24 years; Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6: 9 years.).
Expect the S&P to rally from a late-October low into around Nov 11 (Wed), decline into
Nov 19–23 (Thu–Mon), then rebound into month-end. Direction matters more than level.
Nov 19–23 (Thu–Mon), then rebound into month-end. Direction matters more than level.
► November ranks 5th of 12 by average across all years (avg. +1.0%).● In Midterm Election Years it ranks 2nd (avg. +2.2%).
● In the years ending in 6 it ranks 4th (avg. +1.4%).● November was up in 61 of 98 years (62.24%, avg. +1.0%, med. +1.6%).● Midterm Election Year November was up in 21 of 24 (87.50%, avg. +2.0%, med. +2.2%).► Nov 16 (Mon) through Nov 20 (Fri), expiration week, was up in 49 of 98 years (50.00%).● Midterm Election Years: 10 of 24 were up (41.67%, avg. −0.3%, med. −0.3%).
Q4 2026 Midterm Election Year Stretch.
► Oct 27 (Tue), 2026 opens the Midterm Election Year stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), up in 20 of 24 Midterm Election Years (83.33%, avg. +2.3%, med. +3.1%). The misses were 1930, −11.2%; 1978, −2.7%; 1994, −1.6%; and 2002, −0.8%.● Election day is Nov 3 (Tue).
● The November piece, from the October close through Nov 10 (Tue), was up in 19 of 24 (79.17%, avg. +1.7%, med. +1.8%).► Nov 26 (Thu) is Thanksgiving. The stock and bond markets are closed.● From the session before through the Friday after, Nov 25 (Wed) to Nov 27 (Fri), was up in 72 of 97 years (74.23%, avg. +0.3%, med. +0.6%). The Friday was closed in 1929.► November through April the following year, from the October close to the April close, was up in 69 of 98 years (70.41%, avg. +5.2%, med. +5.4%).
S&P 500 is the best November seasonal short-term trade because Nov 24–Dec 6 has an R (profit divided by drawdown) of 1.54. It rose 1.89% on average from 2006 to 2025 and finished higher in 15 of 20 (75%) years. The average drawdown was 1.23%.
Nov 24–Dec 6 is a 9-session buy trade: From 2006 to 2025 the S&P 500 gained 1.89% and finished higher in 15 of 20 (75%) years. Through 2005 it gained 0.72% and finished higher in 51 of 78 (65.4%) years, and over the last 10 years it gained 1.08% in 7 of 10 (70%) years. The 2016–2025 average path ends +1.08% from the entry close by Dec 6, with up years averaging +2.74% and down years -0.66%. R is 1.54. The drawdown averaged 1.23% on the years that moved against the trade. The 2016–2025 average reaches +1.35% with 3 sessions still open and finishes +1.08%. That high in the small chart above is not a date, and a steeper piece of the line is not a better trade. The counted span is the close before Nov 24 through Dec 6.
S&P 500 Detrended Presidential Cycle 2025-2028.
Correlation with the S&P 500 since January 1, 2026: -0.62.
Nasdaq.
Dow Jones.
Russell 2000.
.png)
S&P 500: First Ten and Last Ten Sessions of the Month (Dec 30, 1927 - Dec 31, 2025).
.png)