An Inside Day (ID) has two main interpretations: continuation or reversal. The context determines which is more likely.
► Continuation: When the market is already running, the Inside Day (ID) is a pause within the prevailing move. Toby Crabel takes only the breakout in the trend's direction, placing the stop against the prevailing move. A breakout aligned with the run favors continuation; a break the other way is a skip. This is the more common case, accounting for about six Inside Days in ten.► Reversal: When an Inside Day (ID) follows an Outside Day (OD), it marks a pause after expansion and may precede a turn. Larry Williams fades an Outside Day (OD) that closes beyond the prior bar's extreme: a close below the prior low is his buy signal; a close above the prior high is his sell signal. The Inside Day (ID) is then the contraction before a potential reversal, not a reason to chase the Outside Day (OD).
In either case, the signal sets up the next session's trade. The Inside Day (ID) itself is not the entry.
Inside Day, What's Next? Crabel Pattern Statistics across 7 futures markets and 14 FX pairs, from 2020 to date.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars): Outside Days (OD) and Inside Days (ID).
Do Not Wait for an Outside Day
An Outside Day (OD) follows an Inside Day (ID) roughly twice as often as its 9–13% baseline rate, but it remains the minority outcome. In futures, the rate is generally around 18–24%. After an IDnr4—a bar inside the prior bar with the narrowest range of the past four sessions—the probability often rises further.
Green cells in the table above — 25% or higher after an IDnr4:
● Dow (YM): 27.5%
● Gold (GC): 27.1%
● Natural Gas (NG): 26.5%
● British Pound (GBP/USD): 25.8%
● Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): 27.0%
● New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD): 28.3%
● Swedish Krona (USD/SEK): 29.9%
Rose cells — 16% or lower:
● Euro (EUR/USD): 13.7%
● Yen (USD/JPY): 14.3%
● Forint (USD/HUF): 14.5%
● Rand (USD/ZAR): 13.9%
● Yen crosses
The practical distinction is clear: favor the breakout when the IDnr4 signal is stronger, but do not wait for an Outside Day (OD) to engulf the prior range. That happens in only a minority of cases, even in the stronger markets. The breakout—not the Outside Day (OD) itself—is the trade.
The patterns are valid from Monday, October 19, 5:30 p.m. ET through the session that ends Tuesday, October 20, at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Prefer an IDnr4 to a plain Inside Day (ID) when the setup is otherwise valid. If the market is choppy, with no established trend and no preceding Outside Day (OD) to frame a potential reversal, stand aside. The pattern is yesterday's; the trade is in the next session.
See also:
TPR (2026) - Crabel Pattern Scanner Stats.