The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index is at about a level which in the past resulted in corrections.

 

 BraVoCycles Newsletter, Juli 5, 2025.

 

The NAAIM Exposure Index, compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, measures the average equity exposure of its member firms, reflecting their sentiment toward US equity markets. It ranges from -200% (fully leveraged short) to +200% (fully leveraged long), with 0% indicating a neutral stance (cash or hedged). As a contrarian indicator for swing trading, it’s often used to gauge market sentiment extremes, with the assumption that overly bullish or bearish positioning by active managers signals potential market reversals. 

 

However, its limitations—such as limited predictive power, small sample size, manager variability, and volatility—mean it’s not a standalone solution. While it can enhance market analysis, traders should approach it cautiously, recognizing that other indicators like the VIX may offer stronger contrarian signals for profitable swing trading.
 

Fear & Greed Index closed at 78 = Extreme Greed on July 3, 2025.
 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.48 on July 3, 2025.

 

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio vs S&P 500, July 3, 2025.

 

Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.38 on July 3, 2025. 

 

See also:

SubuTrade (July 07, 2025)  - All-time highs and Golden Crosses  - Pullback followed by a golden summer?
David Hickson (June 30, 2025)  - Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500. 

Jeff Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices.  

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13 | Martin Armstrong

 

This assassination attempt came precisely at the time our computer had provided. The week of July 15th was showing up when this year began. Look at the volatility and uncertainty ahead into September. Will they try again? 

 

Quoted from:

Martin A. Armstrong (July 14, 2024) - Secret Service Complete Failure? 

 

User Manual for Martin Armstrong's Socrates Platform, January 2019.

 

Nearly all gains in first 13 trading days | Jeff Hirsch

Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index │ All-Time-Low

March 17, 2017: Nasdaq 100 traders in best mood ever!

The “Gone Fishing” Market

Source: Bespoke (Feb 27, 2017)

The latest example of zero volatility in the market comes courtesy of the S&P 500’s intraday trading range. Over the last 50 sessions, the S&P 500’s average percentage spread between the intraday high and intraday low has been 0.540%. Going back to 1983, when our database of intraday data begins, there has only been one other time where the S&P 500’s 50-day average intraday range was narrower. That was back in early February 1994 when the average range got as low as 0.539%, so the current narrow range is close to a record. But it gets even better.  Barring a big intraday move tomorrow (greater than 1% – an intraday range we haven’t seen since mid-December), the S&P 500’s average daily range will drop below the record low of 0.539% that has been in place for nearly a quarter of a century.

Update: SP500 and VIX - Intermediate Term Delta Projections

Apparently there was an inversion in the ITD. So in early June a low in the VIX and a high in stocks
should be expected. Source: Time-Price-Research (Tuesday, February 18, 2014)

Updated Delta count for S&P 500: (Friday, May 23, 2014)

Also the LOW in the SoLunar Tides on June 1 points to a HIGH in equities on that date