Crude Oil
Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom.
The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation.
Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical
downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.
Cyclically
(weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about
three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He
advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles
for bias and timing.
Natural Gas
Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.
Gold
Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.
Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.
Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.
Silver
Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.
Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger
Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than
S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.
Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits.
The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance.
Cocoa
Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops.
Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.
Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.
See also:
SPY (daily bars): 20-week cycle from November 21, 2025 into March 19, 2026.
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