S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July

In Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic, the S&P 500 (ES) has completed the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and the Test of Upthrust (TOU) sequence near the upper boundary of the trading range (Phase D). 

 The blue circle marks the current location of the S&P 500.

 

Following the Last Point of Supply (LPSY – Return to ICE) and the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), the S&P transitioned into clear Failure to Improve and Markdown type price action (Phase E) outside the trading range (Phases A to D). The decline is characterized by repeated failures to reclaim prior support levels, expanding supply, and the absence of sustained demand sponsorship. 

 

The Eternal Recurrence of the Same Wyckoff Cycle.

Any rally and retracement in April will likely be choppy and shallow and reflect Re-Distribution within the current Markdown Phase, which is expected to resume into July or even October. Measured from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, the absolute minimum downside target for the ES markdown is the 50% retracement near 5,940; however, in 2026 a deeper decline of 20%+ to around 5,350 or 4,830 is far more likely.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

TPR (March 19, 2026) - 20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July.

Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer

A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «

 

Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

Reference:
Alex Krainer, March 26, 2026.

 

March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

 

 

S&P 500 – Bearish Structure and 7% Downside Setup | Justin Bennett

On the 4 hour chart, a bearish Break of Structure (BoS) confirms sellers remain in control, so the focus stays on short setups. Just below current price sits a key daily support level (equal lows), which also functions as a weekly external low—making it structurally critical.

 » On the daily time frame, a fair value gap (FVG or imbalance) stands out as a critical zone for the coming week. 

This gap has not yet been fully mitigated, leaving unfinished business in the market. «

S&P 500 (4 hour candles).

For next week, the primary setup is a rally into a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has not yet been mitigated. If price trades into this area—especially into premium above recent highs—the objective is to wait for a lower time frame Change of Character (CHoCH) before entering shorts. No confirmation, no trade.

 » Price always moves from liquidity to inefficiency and vice versa, or from internal liquidity to external liquidity and vice versa. «

Longer term, a weekly close below the external low would signal acceptance and a higher timeframe shift. That opens the path toward a large unmitigated weekly imbalance, implying roughly a ~7% downside move (toward the 6,000 region).

 

» The next logical target is a large unmitigated weekly imbalance left behind by a strong displacement candle. 

This zone has never been retested and represents a magnet for price. Projecting into that imbalance suggests a

potential move of approximately 7% to the downside, bringing the S&P 500 toward just above the 6,000 level. «

S&P 500 (weekly candles).

  

In short: bearish structure, wait for a retrace into imbalance, confirm weakness, then target continuation lower.

 

Reference:

Justin Bennett (March 20, 2026) - S&P 500: This Is Only The Beginning (7% Drop). (video). 

[obviously recorded before the March 20 market open.] 

 

S&P 500 (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

Nasdaq (4-hour candles; March 20 market close): bearish 4-hour FVGs and Premium/Discount levels.

 

 

    

See also:

 JadeCap (2026) - All Five ICT Entry Models Explained. 

orderbloque (2025) - Market Logic Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency.

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game. 

WadeFX (2021) - Market Structure and Powerful Setups.

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - Accumulation and Distribution Schematics.

Re-Accumulation and Re-Distribution Range Patterns | Richard D. Wyckoff

The Re-Accumulation process is exactly identical to the Accumulation process. The only difference between the two is the way the structure begins to develop. While the Accumulation range begins by stopping a bearish movement, the Re-Accumulation range begins after the stop of an upward movement. Re-accumulation and re-distribution generally unfold in four distinct continuation range patterns.

 

 Anatomy of a Trading Range, Jim Forte, 1994.

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour bars - August 15-30, 2024) — Distribution or Re-Accumulation?

Distribution Schematic #3 in Phase C or Re-Accumulation with Spring Action in Phase D ?

 

 

 The Eternal Recurrence of the Same.

 

   The 4 Phases of Richard D. Wyckoff's Market Cycle:

(1.) Accumulation, (2.) Mark Up, (3.) Distribution, (4.) Mark Down.

To put it another way: A Re-Accumulation occurs during a longer-term up trend, which will continue in the future. The main street is finally on the right side as well. Inside a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation schematic, buyers are closing parts of their long positions and sellers are joining the market. With the incoming selling positions, market makers can fill new long positions again.

 4 Types of Re-Accumulation Ranges a.k.a. Continuation Patterns a.k.a. Trend Continuation:

(1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline.
(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure.

The 4 Re-Distribution types are simply the opposite (lower 4 schematics):

(1.) Re-Distribution after a Rally.
(2.) Re-Distribution with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Distribution after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Distribution with a Declining Structure.

 Examples of different types of Re-Accumulation Patterns in the Apple (AAPL) Weekly Chart.

 

The events and phases are still the same (see the Accumulation and Distributions Schematics - the last 4 charts). Only the beginning of the Re-Accumulation cycle is different and equals the start of a distribution cycle. Take a look at the Wyckoff distribution schematics below for the occurring events. The main events that differ from an accumulation or distribution cycle are the occurrences of the Creek. The Creek is a small trend over time and can equal a smaller consolidation. The Creek builds liquidity on both sides of the market and misleads market participants. The Jump Across the Creek (JAC) is the event that causes the SoS. The Jump Across the Creek does take out previous resistance lines with a strong up move. The Jump Across the Creek can also occur inside the trading range of the accumulation. The Creek can be the horizontal resistance defined by Phases A and B or an internal trend line that formed inside Phase B.

• After the spring and test events, there is a bullish price move with momentum. This is called the Jump Across the Creek. Price continues with a bullish Phase E.
• Usually, any shakeout and/or decline action before Re-Accumulation will have a local smaller distribution pattern (cause and effect).
• The Initial Shakeout/Decline is less pronounced during Re-Accumulation than before Accumulation.
• Volume: Re-Accumulation usually has less supply than Accumulation.
• The maximum swing of trading range (highest to lowest point): Re-Accumulation trading range is usually tighter compared with an Accumulation trading range.

 (1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline

 

• Weakest among the Re-Accumulation types.
• Decline usually starts from a small local distribution pattern.
• It can have different variations of the trading range (see the structure of the next 3 formations).

(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action

 

• Flat or sloping down formation.
• It can potentially have a few lower lows with a spring being the lowest point of the trading range.
• Leading stocks can exhibit short-term weakness after strength in this formation.

(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout

 

• Absorption of supply happens in the trading range without violation of support.
• Usually and depending on a position of the market, this pattern exhibits strength.

(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure 

 

• Re-Accumulation with an Uprise is the strongest Re-Accumulation type.
• This structure will exhibit higher highs / higher lows.
• Sometimes can be confused with a topping trading range (Distribution).

 

 

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases A and B.

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases C, D and E.

 

 Distribution Schematic #3: Phases A, B, C, D and E = the Inversion of the  Accumulation Schematic #1

 

The Re-Distribution occurs inside a markdown cycle and stops a down-trend for a longer period. After bigger price moves even Main Street joins the trend. Now it is time for the market makers to bring the price into a consolidation phase to scare sellers and bring in new buyers. That ensures new liquidity for the institution’s to place new short orders. The start of a Wyckoff Re-Distribution schematic is the same as an Accumulation cycle. A Creek inside the trading range creates liquidity on both sides of the market, which gets taken by a UTAD. Many people will see this as a break-out to join bullish price action, but don’t get fooled. With a Jump across the Creek, the price is not only returning into the trading range but going to continue the downtrend from before.

 

 

  Distribution Schematic #2: Phases A and B.

 

 Distribution Schematic #2: Phases C, D and E.

 

Many believe that simply labeling the events is sufficient for detecting Wyckoff cycles. Don't forget that a supposed Distribution can become a Re-Accumulation or an Accumulation a Re-Distribution. Therefore, it is essential to presuppose a fundamental market analysis and confirm a Wyckoff cycle with COT data, Seasonality, or other longer-term confirmations. Don't make the mistake of looking for Accumulations and Distributions in lower time frames. It is easy to draw a supposed accumulation on a 5-minute chart, but a real Accumulation takes place in higher time frames. Since a Wyckoff cycle takes time to unfold, wait for the events to occur and be fully validated. Otherwise, one quickly get s distracted by the noise within the actual moves and makes bad trading decisions in the worst case. 

 

Wyckoff Theory Simplified.

  

Reference:

Richard D. Wyckoff (December 21, 2022) - Accumulation & Distribution Schematics. 

 Rubén Villahermosa Chaves (2019)  - The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth. How to trade financial markets logically.

Jim Forte (1994) - Anatomy of a Trading Range.
Hank Pruden & Max Lichtenstein (2006) - Wyckoff Schematics - Visual Templates for Market Timing Decisions.

WyckoffAnalytics.com (2022) - Richard D. Wyckoff - His Method and Story.

Matt LeTrader (2022) - Composite Man: A Journey through the Trading Range. 

Roman Bogomazov (2022) - Wyckoff Method Trading and Education.

Buy and Sell Signals | Larry Williams

If I observe prices in a strong downtrend, followed by a period of sideways movement before another decline, only to immediately return to the previous trading range, that's a buy signal.

 

Buy Signal: Dump, dump, (dump), go sideways and pump a bit, one more small dump, then the pump.

Sell Signal: Pump, pump, (pump), go sideways and drop a bit, one more small pump, then the dump.

 

Why? Because, during the sideways range, accumulation was taking place. The breakdown likely liquidated many long positions, and professional money will often buy in that area.

 

 

If the price quickly returns to the range, it confirms that they’ve been buying, and that's when I want to enter a long position in the market.

Quoted from:
Larry Williams (2016) - Buy Signal. (video)

 

See also:

Larry Williams (2011) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading.

ICT Market Maker Buy Model and Sell Model (MMXM) | Darya Filipenka

These six videos of the ICT Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM) and Sell Model (MMSM) series on @I_Am_The_ICT / YouTube Channel is all you need to understand the market:

 

 

1. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Amplified Lesson

2. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Algorithmic Theory

3. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6 - Universal Trading Model 

4. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6.2 - Amplified Lesson 

5. ICT Charter Price Action Model 6.3 - Supplementary Lesson

6. ICT Mentorship 2023 - Market Maker Models

 

 

 The ICT Market Maker Buy and Sell Model (MMXM) pairs very well with the ICT Advanced Market Structure.

 

Reference: 

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 (monthly bars). Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly Highs and Lows and Targets. First month up.

Cup & Handle pattern? No.  

 

 

 

 Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars). Four weeks up. Current inside.

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars)

 

Nasdaq 100 (1 hour bars) - Last week narrow range. This one still inside. Close above balance line. 

 

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday 'Major Red News'.

 

 

US Stock Indexes | Shallow Retracement Into Early-Mid-December Now Likely

Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly bars)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)

Monthly weekly and daily trends are up. 

S&P 500 (weekly bars)

S&P 500 (daily bars)

Eleven days, three levels and nearly 6 * ATR above the re-accumulation low of November 9.

 

Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars) 

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars) 

CNN Fear & Greed Index (daily bars).

 NYSE McClellan Oscillator (daily bars)

 

CBOE Volatility Index (monthly bars). Very close to multi-year lows.

SPX Put/Call Ratio = 1.63 for Nov 24 2023.

 

 Seth Golden (Nov 25, 2023):
The Trifecta of Overbought Conditions:
92% of SPX above 20-DMA, highest in 2+ yrs
McClellan Oscillator > 80+
S&P 500 2 std. above 50-DMA (RSI also 70+)

 

 

 

Four weeks+ of price expansion beyond daily, weekly and quarterly levels. Last week narrow daily and weekly ranges. Multi-month inflation melt-up? Possible. Allen Reminick suggests a creep up into November 27 (Mon) or December 1 (Fri) followed by some rather shallow 23-50% move down into December 8 or mid-month, some X-mas rally, sideways into January 12 and up into March-April 2024. Possible. [ Allen Reminick (Nov 20, 2023) - S&P 500 Projection Into June 2024 ]

 

See also:

Richard Wyckoff's Distribution Schematics.