Swing Points as Trend Change Indication | Larry Williams

A trend change from up to down occurs when a short-term high is exceeded on the upside, a short-term trend change from down to up is identified by price going below the most recent short-term low. Figure 8.1 depicts such trend changes in a classic manner, study it well because reality comes next! Here are a couple of pointers on this technique. Although the penetration of one of these short-term highs, in a declining market, indicates a trend reversal to the upside, some penetrations are better than others.

 Figure 8.1 — Classic patterns of trend change.

» There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. «

 Figure 8.2 — Breaking a short-term high or low.

There are only two ways a short-term high or low is broken. In an up trending market, the low that is violated or fallen below will be either a low prior to making a new rally high, as shown at (A) in Figure 8.2, or a low that occurs after decline of a high that then rallies making a lower short-term high; it then declines below the low prior to the rally that failed to make a new high, as shown at (B). The better indication of a real trend change is the violation of the low shown at (A). By the same token, a trend reversal to the upside will occur in one of the two following patterns: In (A), the rally peak prior to a new low is violated to the upside, or in (B), the market makes a higher low, then rallies above the short-term high between those two lows. In this case, again, the (A) pattern is the better indication of a real trend reversal.

Figure 8.3 — T-bonds (15-minute bars)

With that in mind, look at Figure 8.3, which shows a 15-minute bar chart of the September Bonds in 1989. The major trend moves were adequately captured by this technique. [...] You can use this technique two ways. Some traders may simply buy long and sell short on these changes in trend. That's a basic simplistic approach.

Quoted from:
Larry Williams (2000) - Day Trade Futures Online.

Outside Bar Trading Setups | Larry Williams

In his book, 'Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading', 2nd Edition, Chapter 7, Larry Williams provides price action patterns to profit. Larry Williams says that there are two daily bars that most confuse retail traders, the Inside Bar and the Outside Bar: 

 

» What the public 'sees' on their charts as being negative is most often apt to be positive for short-term market moves and vice versa. A case in point is an outside day with a down close. The day's high is greater than the previous day's high and the low is lower than the previous day's low and the close is below the previous day's low. This looks bad, like the sky is indeed falling in. In fact, the books I have read say this is an excellent sell signal, that such a wild swing is a sign of a market reversal in favor of the direction of the close, in this case down. [..] The problem is these outside day patterns do not occur as often as we would like! The next time you see an outside day with a down close lower than the previous day, don't get scared, get ready to buy ! « 

After an Outside Day with a Down Close lower than the previous day, BUY!
After an Outside Day with an Up Close higher than the previous day, SELL!

An Outside Bar is a bar that broke the previous bar's high and the previous bar's low. For related trading setups Larry Williams specifically looked for outside bars on the daily time frame that closed below the previous daily low or closed above the previous daily high. After such a bar prints, a reversal in the price action should be expected. According to Larry Williams, Outside Bars only appear 7% of the time on the daily time frame.

This is what an outside bar with a down close looks like:

According to Larry Williams, this will be a buy set up in theory. Here we can see it looks bearish to the public eye because the close is below the low. This indeed can be a turning point. Enter long on the next daily open. The stop loss is below the low of the outside bar.
 
This is what an outside bar with an up close looks like:

 

This is a sell set up. It looks bullish to the public eye because the close is above the high. This indeed can be a turning point. Enter short on the next daily open. The stop loss is above the high of the outside bar. 

 
Targets should be logically related to buy side/sell side liquidity levels (previous highs and lows), Imbalances/Fair Value Gaps and/or 50% swing retracement levels. Consider only setups offering risk-to-reward ratios ≥ 1:2.

 

Don't expect every single Outside Bar setup to be a winner. Other setups and filters can nullify or optimize it (e.g. Oops Pattern, Smash Day, Day of the Week, trading in Premium or Discount, actual outside bar small range or large range, swing high or swing low recently broken, occurrence in 3 Day Cycle and 3 Week Cycle, close above/below 9-Day EMA, etc.). The video below shows Outside Bar Trading Setups on timeframes also smaller than the daily.

Reference:
Larry Williams (1998) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, 2nd Edition.

Forensic Forex (February 2, 2023) - Outside Bar Model by Larry Williams. (video)

Forensic Forex (March 15, 2023) - Turning Points on the Higher Time Frame. (video)

Ali Casey (2022) - Larry Williams' Outside Day Strategy. (video)