February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

According to the specific midterm data (1950–2022) indicated by the dotted lines on the chart below, the market typically begins with weakness, hitting an initial seasonal low on February 5 (Thu) (Trading Day 4) before attempting a choppy recovery.

 

 

This leads to a secondary dip around February 9 (Mon) just before a historical mid-month surge. This peak typically culminates on February 18 (Wed) (Presidents' Day February 16 (Mon), OpEx February 20 (Fri)). 

 

Following this peak, the "February Reversal" takes hold. In midterm years, the market typically enters a sideways trend, struggling to sustain gains. Conversely, the 21-year average shows a steadier decline that carries the market toward its final monthly low on February 27 (Fri).

 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February has opened strongly but then reverses after Presidents’ Day.

  

DJIA eyes 9-month win streak: Historically, 2-month

follow-up gains are 100% certain, averaging +5.34%. 

 

DJIA & NASDAQ Up 81.0% of time on first trading day of February. Average gains 
have been respectable ranging from 0.39% by DJIA to 0.64% from NASDAQ. 

Update February 9, 2026.

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (February 1, 2026) - February 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.  

 David Hickson (January 26, 2026) - Unraveling the Hurst Cycles Harmony of the US Stock Market.

Namzes (January 5, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

NDR (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.