Showing posts with label Market Structure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Structure. Show all posts

Monday, December 1, 2025

Engulfing Bar Strategy | JadeCap

This one pattern helped me make over $4 million in the last three years and even break the world-record payout at Apex. Let me show you exactly how it works:
 
» For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. «
 
What Is an Engulfing Bar? We’re simply looking for two candles—along with proper context—to define the pattern: Imagine we have a down candle with its open, high, low, and close. The next candle is what determines whether we have an engulfing bar. For a true engulfing pattern, the new candle must break the previous candle’s low and the previous candle’s high. It completely “engulfs” the previous range (aka Outside Bar/Candle).
 
So picture the first down candle closing. The next candle runs below that low, takes it out, reverses, pushes above the prior high, and closes somewhere near the top half of its range. That two-candle formation gives us a tremendous amount of information about where the next candle—or even the next several candles—may go.
 
Understanding the Context: Inside a higher-timeframe candle (4-Hour or daily), there are dozens of smaller candles—1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute—that form all the micro-structure. Within that lower-timeframe structure, the engulfing pattern represents:
 
Market Maker Buy Model (for bullish engulfing)

So although it's only two candles on a higher timeframe, those two candles often reflect an entire lower-timeframe reversal model.

The key is the closure. Many beginners think a candle will close as an engulfing bar, only for it to close weakly or back inside the prior range. That invalidates the pattern. A proper engulfing bar should close with a strong, decisive body—typically in the upper 50% for bullish setups, or the lower 50% for bearish setups.

Bullish vs. Bearish ExamplesFor a bullish engulfing bar, the second candle runs below the prior low, reverses, and breaks the prior high (Outside Candle). For a bearish engulfing bar, it runs above the prior high, reverses, and breaks the prior low. Both reflect a higher-timeframe representation of a lower-timeframe Market Maker Model.
 
» Every setup has a failure rate. «
 
What Most Traders Don’t RealizeEvery setup—Engulfing Bars, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Market Maker Models—has a failure rate. I learned this the hard way after blowing dozens of accounts trying to trade every engulfing bar I saw. Two things matter:
  1. Every setup fails sometimes. If you backtest these candles, you'll see some of them lose. Your job is not to find the magical 100%-win-rate setup. It doesn’t exist. You may find these patterns work 60% of the time. Your winners must be managed well enough to pay for the losers.
  2. Location matters. A lot. When I was new, I took every engulfing bar. That was a huge mistake.
    If you're bullish, you want the engulfing bar to form at a swing low, ideally after taking out sell-side liquidity.
    If it forms after taking out buy-side liquidity—at a high—it's often a sign of exhaustion and more likely to fail.
    The reverse is true for bearish setups.
Avoid:
Bullish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out buy-side liquidity.
Bearish engulfing bars printed at or after taking out sell-side liquidity.
 
These filters alone drastically improve your win rate.
 
The $98,000 ExampleLet’s walk through the trade from last week. We printed a large bullish engulfing candle immediately after FOMC. The candle swept sell-side liquidity, reversed, broke the prior high, and closed strongly—exactly what we want at a swing low. We were also inside a daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), adding even more confluence.
 
Bullish Engulfing Bar Setup in the NZDUSD (4-Hour candles). 

My first target was buy-side liquidity above the highs. Since the market was near all-time highs, I was also looking for a move toward the psychological 25,000 level. As soon as the futures market reopened at 6 p.m., I entered with a 20-lot position. My stop was below the weekly open. I was looking for roughly a 1:3 risk-to-reward.
 
On the lower timeframes, the price action continued to confirm the model—bullish FVGs forming on the way up, continuation structure holding. Meanwhile, bearish engulfing candles printed at swing lows failed, exactly like we want to see.
 
I showed the live account login on the video: real balance, real fills, floating around $93,000 at one point. But the dollar amount doesn’t matter. If your account is small, making $200 or $400 using the same rules is identical—it’s just a matter of position size. Years ago, I was risking $500–$1,000. As my net worth grew, I increased my risk proportionally. Eventually, price hit my target and I closed the trade for roughly $98,000.
 
Final ThoughtsEngulfing bars are easy to spot—but only powerful when combined with
 
    Proper context
    Liquidity understanding
    Market structure
    Higher-timeframe narrative
    Disciplined trade management
 
Your homework is to backtest and forward-test these exact setups: where the engulfing bar forms, where the liquidity sits, where your stop should go, and how to trail it as price moves in your favor. Scaling in, adjusting stops, and managing the trade all revolve around that one pattern.

With this engulfing bar strategy and the rules I just shared, you now have everything you need to start identifying high-probability opportunities. Remember: profitable trading isn’t about talent or luck—it’s about discipline, patience, and following your rules every single time.

Reference:
 
 
See also:

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

W.D. Gann’s Famous 1929 DJIA Forecast: How Accurate Was It?

On November 23, 1928, W.D. Gann released his 1929 Annual Forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to subscribers. Published on the eve of what would become one of Wall Street’s most catastrophic years, the forecast used Gann’s time-and-price methods to anticipate market swings.
 
W.D. GANN SCIENTIFIC SERVICE INC.
1929 Annual Stock Market Forecast, November 23, 1928.
 
To evaluate the forecast's quality, projected dates of swing highs and lows from Gann’s 1929 chart were compared with actual DJIA daily closes during 1929. A trading test was conducted: short at each forecasted high and cover at the next low, then reverse to long on the same date and price, exiting at the following high, and so on. 
 
Across 49 completed long and short trades, gains and losses were measured in points—exit minus entry, adjusted for shorts—and expressed as percentages relative to the starting level of 307.0 points, based on the first short trade entered on January 2, 1929.
  
Number of trades: 49 (24 long, 25 short). Win rate: 51.02% (25 winners, 24 losers). Max consecutive wins: 3; Max consecutive losses: 4. Trade duration (days): average 7.46; median 6.75; range 2–22. Average return per trade: 1.17% (best +19.54%, worst −6.58%). Drawdowns: absolute 0.00%; relative 6.58%; maximum 9.92%. Net annual return: +59.18%.
Very extraordinary and remarkable in many ways. Flip your own coin.

Blindly trading all the projected swings in Gann’s chart through December 31, 1929, would have produced a cumulative net annual profit of 171.7 points (59.18%) with no absolute drawdown. 
 
 
 
» What Gann wrote in his courses and what he traded were two very different things. «  
 
He relied on a remarkably blunt and straightforward bread & butter strategy
Trading double tops and lows in the direction of the daily trend.
 
  » Maybe the lesson for all of us is to keep things as simple as possible. «  
 

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Market Logic Based on Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency | orderbloque

There are three main tools for market analysis that you will need once and for all. No more patterns and unnecessary clutter that only hinder and bring failures. The logic of the market is very simple and based on just three main elements: Liquidity, Volume, and Inefficiency. All price action can be described using just these three concepts. 
 
 » The logic of the market is based on liquidity, volume, and inefficiency. «

Liquidity: At the top of this chain is liquidity, the primary driver of the market. Without liquidity—without buy or sell orders—the market would come to a standstill. It's crucial to understand that while any element on the chart can provide liquidity, the key factor is the quantity: volume.
Volume: The second most important element is volumethe foundation of all our market logic and strategy. Volume directly reflects the amount of liquidity, or money, that has entered the market.
Inefficency: The third element is inefficiency, which arises from the influence of volume on price. Inefficiencies are graphical representations of volume at a specific moment in time, varying by time frame, and serve as tools for analyzing the chart.
 
Price always moves from liquidity to inefficiency and vice versa, or from internal liquidity to external liquidity and vice versa. Hence, when looking at any chart, the Points of Interest (POIs) are always price levels or zones where liquidity rests in the form of stop orders, unfilled, and partially filled orders, namely Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Order Blocks, Rejection Blocks, Support & Resistance at previous highs and lows, or Fractal Points. 
Use imbalances from the lower timeframes for precision entries into a higher timeframe draw on liquidity:
For a monthly draw, use weekly or daily imbalances for entry and re-entry.
For a weekly draw, use daily or 4-hour imbalances for entry and re-entry.
For a daily draw, use 4-hour or 60-minute imbalances for entry and re-entry.
For a 4-hour/60-minute draw, use 30-minute or 15-minute imbalances for entry and re-entry.
All these concepts and terms are briefly defined and outlined below, and explained in detail with context and chart examples in the following video.

How Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), Order Blocks (OB), and Rejection Blocks (RB) operate.
 
Balanced and Unbalanced State of the Market
To understand the deeper logic of inefficiencies and market movements, we need to consider two main factors. The first factor is the state of the market at a certain point in time: balanced or unbalanced. What does this mean? 
 
 
When the market is in a balanced state, the volume of buys and sells is equivalent, and price hardly moves, with neither buyers nor sellers dominating the market. This is very rare and usually occurs on days with very low volatility. The second type is the unbalanced state, which is more typical of any market. This occurs when buy volume exceeds sell volume, causing price to rise, or when sell volume exceeds buy volume, causing price to fall.
 
Efficient and Inefficient Price Delivery
The second factor is the efficiency of price delivery, which also comes in two types. The first type is efficient delivery, where, in the context of a certain market movement, both buyers and sellers are present, allowing for a more even exchange of assets. 

 Efficient Price Delivery and Inefficient Price Delivery.

It is important to note that price delivery is always an unbalanced process in which one side—either buyers or sellers—dominates. 
 
The second type is inefficient price delivery, which occurs when the exchange of assets is uneven in certain price ranges between buyers and sellers. This means that there are areas in the market where orders remain unexecuted or are only partially filled, which is a key sign of inefficient pricing. Inefficient price delivery causes a Fair Value Gap (FVG). 
 
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is a formation consisting of three candles where the shadows or wicks of the first and third candles do not overlap each other in both bullish and bearish variants, indicating an imbalance in buying or selling pressure.
 
 A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is a 3 candle pattern where the shadows 
of the first and third candles do not overlap, indicating an imbalance.
 
 A FVG has three levels: the upper and lower boundaries, and the 0.5 level, 
where, ideally, price action should revisit and bounce off, making it a potential entry point for a position.

Regarding the validity of the FVG when it is tested, it’s quite complex because much depends on timing. However, the key point is that price should not close below the lower boundary when the FVG is bullish and should not close above the upper boundary when the FVG is bearish. A close above the upper boundary in a bearish FVG or below the lower boundary in a bullish FVG would be considered an inverted fair value gap, which may signal a continuation of the movement. Everything else is permissible, but much depends on the context. 
 
 Examples of bearish and bullish FVGs.
 
Support and Resistance (SnR)
Support occurs when two candles form on the chart. The level where the bearish candle closes and the bullish candle opens is called Support. This is where buyers show activity and prevent the price from falling lower (Sell and Buy Candles).


Resistance occurs when two candles form on the chart. The level where the bullish candle closes and the bearish candle opens is called Resistance. This is where sellers show activity and prevent the price from rising higher (Buy and Sell Candles).

Order Block (OB)
A Bullish Order Block is a price movement where the Resistance level was broken with subsequent confirmation by the candle body closing above it.
 

A Bearish Order Block is a price movement where the Support level was broken with subsequent confirmation by the candle body closing below it.
 
Rejection Block (RB)
A Rejection Block is a two-candle formation where the range of shadows forms a zone of interest, and it doesn't matter which one is longer or shorter. 
 

In the bullish variant, it begins at the Support level. In the bearish variant, it begins at the Resistance level. 

Fractal Point (FP)
A Fractal Low (FL) is a three-candle formation where the minimum of the middle candle is lower than the minimums of the first and third candles. Five-candle fractals are considered potentially stronger.


A Fractal High (FH) is the opposite three-candle formation, where the middle candle has the highest maximum compared to the adjacent candles.
 
Dealing Range (DR)
The Dealing Range is a price movement that can be identified using two opposing fractal points (High and Low), regardless of direction. This formation displays the balance between buyers and sellers during a specific time period and helps to more clearly define potential zones of interest.


The Dealing Range is divided into two main zones - Premium and Discount with an Equilibrium level in the middle.
 
High Resistance Logic
High Resistance is considered a movement that has interacted with liquidity (Fractal Raid) or inefficiency (FVG rebalance) usually on the same timeframe, resulting in the formation of (OB, RB, FVG), plus a fractal point has formed as a level confirming the extreme. 

 

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

How Algorithms Impact Market Direction: 80% of Breakouts Fail | Richie Naso

The first thing you need to truly understand is that algorithms control the stock market; not the large institutional players, not the massive hedge funds, but price auction algorithms. Algorithms are there to create volatility and liquidity; they have no mind, they are programmed to go to technical areas, certain levels, to take out buy and sell orders. 
 
The market operates on a day-to-day basis with both premium and discount levels. When the market moves toward a premium level, the algorithms target that area to create liquidity. Conversely, when the market moves lower, the algorithms aim for the discount area to generate liquidity.
 
 Equilibrium Level and Premium -Discount Zones.

Algorithms dictate the direction of the market, especially in the near term.
The mathematical equations used in these algorithms are designed by humans, based on historical data. 
 
When the market is trending lower and algorithms reach a significant technical level (support/resistance, supply/demand zones, previous highs and lows of sessions, days, weeks, months, imbalances, order blocks, 50%-levels, round numbers, option strike prices) and the market is trending lower, algorithms will activate and target that technical area. They recognize that the area is a support level. They also understand that they can manipulate investor emotions to make them believe that the market is bottoming out. 
 
Premium-Discount Zones for Short and Long Setups.

As a result, when the algorithm hits that technical area, it aims to trigger emotions that lead investors to sell or short in response to what appears to be a breakdown. These breakdowns are often referred to as "failed breakout trades," and they tend not to succeed. In fact, they fail in more than 80% of cases.


 
 » Some of the best trade setups are failed breakouts. «

Why? Because it’s a contrived effort by the mathematical logic of the algorithms, designed to make investors do exactly what the algorithms want. The goal is to get people to go short at the bottom and encourage long investors to sell their positions at the lowest point, clearing the way for an upward movement. 
 
First, shorts need to be covered. Then, longs who sold at the bottom will be motivated to buy back shares, creating another emotional impulse. Typically, this leads to a poor trade for those who sold too early.

» The goal is to get people to go long at the top. «
 
The same principle applies in both directions—whether the market is moving up or down. For instance, in a false breakdown, algorithms may manipulate the market to sell. In a false breakout, they may prompt buying. In both cases, the effect is similar: short covering and long investors buying at the wrong time. To sum it up, the algorithms exploit emotional responses. 
 
There is no support for short positions when the market is trending down, and the longs who are caught at the top are forced to sell. This creates the momentum for the market to move in the opposite direction.

 » 80% of Breakouts fail. «

This is why some of the best trades are failed breakdowns—buying against technical levels that are collapsing. This is when and where you should buy, while everyone else is being pushed out of the market. You don’t want to short a failed breakdown in a technical area, nor should you buy a breakout in such an area. Instead, you should do the opposite in these situations. 
 
» Algos do what they are programmed to do. They take no prisoners. «
 
My most successful trades, without question, occur when stop orders are triggered. People use stop orders to protect themselves from losses. This is where you should enter the market—against stop orders. If stop orders are triggered and the market has to sell down, you should buy. Conversely, if stop orders are triggered on the way up, you should sell. The key is to position yourself on the other side of stop orders.
 
To sum it up, algorithms are written by programmers, and have to be designed to go somewhere. Where do they go? To technical areas. Those algorithms are heading there, without a doubt. They aim to shake out longs and get people to go short or vice versa. 
 
So, what do the smart players do who are at the bottom of these algorithms, scooping up all this action? They feed into these people. That's the purpose of algorithms. We take advantage of what they give us. Printing money. That’s what we do. And we do it every day. 
 
You need to know the technicals, the levels, and pay attention to them. Technical areas are borders, and price history is how you identify and track them. Do multi-time frame analysis; understand what failed breakdowns and failed breakouts look like; double bottoms, double tops, pin bars, three-push-patterns, three-bar reversals, and M and W patterns, all the way down to the 1-minute chart. Find out what else VWAP, EMA (9), and Keltner can do for you.  
 
Wait for price to get to technical areas, and for reversal setups to form. Price to price, level to level, zone to zone. Don't chase trades; scale into them, as single-entry trades will kill you. Understand position management; know your stop-loss level, take-profit targets, and your R, and take what the market gives you. Consider taking partial profits and holding positions through a session close or daily close. Journal your trades; some of your best trades will be losing trades that help you learn valuable lessons. Keeping things simple is the key to success as a trader.

See also: 

Saturday, February 1, 2025

M & W Wave Patterns │ Arthur A. Merrill

In 1971, Robert A. Levy made the first attempt to systematically classify price patterns. He categorized five-point patterns, defined by price swings influenced by stock volatility, and tested their significance. Although he was unable to identify any substantial forecasting power, he introduced a valuable concept: the five-point categorization of time-price patterns.

» Pick any five consecutive turning points. If the first of the four swings is upward, 
the pattern forms an M. If the first swing is downward, the pattern is a W. «
Arthur A. Merrill, 1984.
 
This method remained dormant for a decade until Arthur A. Merrill revived it and published applicable results in the early 1980s: He employed the same five-point pattern approach, but instead of Levy's volatility filter, he used a rather large 8-percent swing filter in his research study. (Of course, since time and price are fractal, Merrill's patterns are too; they appear on every price swing scale across all timeframes.)
 
Merrill's 16 M and 16 W wave patterns, and their statistical occurrences: Are some of these patterns bullish? 
Are some bearish? When a certain pattern occurred in the past, what happened to prices after the pattern?

Merrill organized five-point patterns based on the sequential order of points from high to low, creating a structured taxonomy of "Ms" and "Ws". He identified 32 distinct patterns, grouping them into two categories: 16 resembling a capital M and 16 resembling a capital W. He then highlighted six subcategories, based on classical chart pattern names used by market technicians:

Uptrends                                            M15, M16, W14, W16
Downtrends                                      M1, M3, W1, W2
Triangle                                               M13, W4
Head and Shoulders                      W6, W7, W9, W11, W13, W15
Inverted Head and Shoulders    M2, M4, M6, M8, M10, M11
Broadening                                        M5, W12
 

For example, an M1 is a strongly descending pattern, while the middle patterns, M8 and M9, are flat. An M16 is a strongly ascending pattern. Similarly, a W1 is a descending pattern, the middle Ws are flat, and a W16 is an ascending pattern.
 
So, what is the practical application and benefit of Merrill's weird-looking M & W Wave Patterns in trading? They can be used to identify support/resistance levels, determine areas of interest, anticipate market direction and reversals, project extensions, define entry and exit points, and manage risk. 
 

How? You may want to watch the following video, as well as review the references and recommendations provided below.
 
 
Reference:
 
See also: