Friday, March 27, 2026
S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July
Saturday, March 21, 2026
S&P 500 – Bearish Structure and 7% Downside Setup | Justin Bennett
Friday, March 20, 2026
US Stock Indexes Trigger Rare March-December Low Indicator | Jeff Hirsch
in @Fiorente2's "The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited."
Here’s how the three trigger months compare historically:
- January triggers (24 occurrences): Average further decline of 12.92%; full year up 14 of 24 times, average gain of 1.30%
- February triggers (8 occurrences): The worst group — average further decline of 17.26%; down 6 of 8 full years, average loss of 8.13%
- March triggers (3 previous occurrences): The mildest — average further decline of 8.12%; one year up, two down, average full-year loss of 3.70%
See also:
Thursday, February 19, 2026
One Trading Strategy for Life: The "Daily Sweep" | JadeCap
To understand this step, one must first master the technical definition of a swing point. A swing low is defined by a three-candle pattern where a specific candle’s low is flanked by two candles with higher lows. Once the third candle in the sequence closes at the top of the hour, the central low is officially validated as a bullish swing point. Conversely, a swing high occurs when a central candle is flanked by two candles with lower highs. Again, we must wait for the closure of the third hourly candle before that peak is confirmed as a bearish swing point.
These swing points are vital because they allow us to identify market structure. When the market creates higher highs and higher lows, it is objectively bullish; lower highs and lower lows indicate a bearish trend. In a trending market, opposing swing points will often fail as the trend continues. However, the market rarely moves in a linear fashion, and we frequently see short-term "runs" on these swing points—where the market raids a low to gather liquidity before continuing higher. As traders, we are not seeking 100% certainty; rather, we are making a high-probability educated guess, ideally with a 60% to 70% success rate, to align ourselves with the higher timeframe trend.
In the marketplace, liquidity often clusters around these swing points. Traders entering "long" positions typically place their protective stop-loss orders just below a swing low, while "short" sellers place theirs above a swing high. The SFP allows us to capitalize on the moment these stop-losses are triggered. We are looking for the market to run through a swing point and then show a definitive rejection in the opposite direction.
A key distinction must be made: the mere breach of a level is not an SFP. We require a strong closure back within the range for confirmation. For instance, if the market raids a swing low, we do not simply buy the moment the level is touched; we wait for a bullish hourly candle to close back above that previous low. This provides confirmation that the "Smart Money" has entered the market, allowing us to ride their coattails rather than attempting to front-run the move.
Looking at the NASDAQ (NQ) as an example (charts above), we can observe this pattern nearly every day. On a typical morning, if we identify a swing low and witness an SFP at the 8:00 a.m. candle closure, we can anticipate a bullish expansion during the New York session. In one specific instance, an SFP provided a move with a 3R (three times the risk) return on the hourly chart alone. If a trader were to refine that entry on a five-minute chart with a tighter stop-loss, the reward-to-risk ratio could be significantly higher.
Monday, December 1, 2025
Engulfing Bar Strategy | JadeCap
So although it's only two candles on a higher timeframe, those two candles often reflect an entire lower-timeframe reversal model.
The key is the closure. Many beginners think a candle will close as an engulfing bar, only for it to close weakly or back inside the prior range. That invalidates the pattern. A proper engulfing bar should close with a strong, decisive body—typically in the upper 50% for bullish setups, or the lower 50% for bearish setups.
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Every setup fails sometimes. If you backtest these candles, you'll see some of them lose. Your job is not to find the magical 100%-win-rate setup. It doesn’t exist. You may find these patterns work 60% of the time. Your winners must be managed well enough to pay for the losers.
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Location matters. A lot. When I was new, I took every engulfing bar. That was a huge mistake.▪ If you're bullish, you want the engulfing bar to form at a swing low, ideally after taking out sell-side liquidity.▪ If it forms after taking out buy-side liquidity—at a high—it's often a sign of exhaustion and more likely to fail.▪ The reverse is true for bearish setups.
With this engulfing bar strategy and the rules I just shared, you now have everything you need to start identifying high-probability opportunities. Remember: profitable trading isn’t about talent or luck—it’s about discipline, patience, and following your rules every single time.











