Showing posts with label Chart Patterns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chart Patterns. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Smart Money Concepts: An 80-Year History | Stacey Burke

Nothing changes on Wall Street. Markets continue to do the same three things they have always done: they break out and continue, they break out and fail, or they remain in a higher-time-frame trading range. That leaves two primary setups: pump-coil-dump and dump-coil-pump—or no trade. The real battle lies within the trader—fighting human impulses, emotions, and random erratic behavior. Mastery comes from applying simple, repeating concepts through a daily process that identifies two to three potentially scalable opportunities each week, or focused "nail-and-bail" session trades.

Pump-Coil-Dump and Dump-Coil-Pump Templates.
 
Lessons from Mentors with Centuries of Experience
This approach draws on instruction received over the years from mentors including Peter Brandt, Edwards and Magee, Richard Schabacker, Bill McLaren, Brent Penfold, and Stuart Moore. Collectively these individuals represent more than 300 years of real-life trading experience—much of it gained in the pits, on hand-drawn charts, and by executing orders over the phone to brokers. Nothing has changed. The same patterns that appeared 80 years ago appear today. There is nothing new in the markets, only new gurus and new suckers. 
» Being flat is a position. A difficult but necessary component for success is an extreme amount of patience, waiting and waiting for a pattern to become fully mature—and then the discipline to pull the trigger. There will always be another good set up—in fact, always much better set ups. « 
Peter Brandt on the Reality of Trading
Peter Brandt's writing crystallizes points many traders still struggle with. On page 8 of his book he states that trading is an upstream swim against human emotions and that consistently successful trading is a tough job—if it were easy, everyone would do it for a living. Successful speculation, he emphasizes, is mostly about managing risk; good traders view themselves first and foremost as risk managers.

» Good traders view themselves first
and foremost as risk managers. «
 
On page 16 he notes that successful market speculation is a craft requiring extensive, ongoing apprenticeship in the school of hard knocks. It must address many aspects of market behavior as well as self-knowledge and mastery. In the final sentence of that section he observes that the human factor is seldom mentioned in trading books, yet it is the single most important component of consistently profitable market operations.
 
The Only Question That Matters: What Is Your Edge?
The same cycles repeat in every market. The most useful question a trader can ask is: "What setup am I hunting?" There is nothing new. Traders are constantly snowballed with fairy tales from new gurus who appear every week. Markets do not change; they only do three things. The flood of conflicting information creates analysis paralysis.

» What setup am I hunting? «
 
Traders born after 2000 often lack sufficient market experience and are led to believe that trading every minute detail on tiny time frames is their edge. In reality they face information overload, take too many trades, over-leverage, and never trade meaningful size. Trading small accounts on 15-second charts may feel productive, but it is rarely scalable.
 
Charts themselves are not the be-all and end-all. They are simply a tool for managing risk, identifying an entry when an edge appears, and defining an area for taking profits. Classical charting principles supply entry, risk management, and a profit-extraction method. The critical question remains: What is your edge? What do you do that is simple, repeatable, and scalable? If you cannot answer that clearly, you are most likely stuck in the retail cycle of winning some, losing some, briefly believing you have "got it," then either damaging the account or remaining trapped in analysis paralysis. 

» It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
Got that? My sitting tight! Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.
I found it one of the hardest things. «

Managing Yourself Between the Setups
You make money on the setups and on the days when it is easy to make money. That has nothing to do with personal brilliance or market magic; it comes from executing a clear process—entry, risk management, profit target—and then walking away. The daily battle is forcing yourself to stop taking random, impulsive, emotional, tape-reading, or pure price-action trades that fall outside your edge.

» Days when it is easy to make money. «

Doing something for a long time does not equal craftsmanship, performance, or discipline. What matters is daily attention to process, continuous improvement, and knowing what NOT to do. Once you recognize that the only real problem in trading is the person staring back from the mirror, the institutional behaviors that repeat across every market become visible. If your edge is not simple, repeatable, and scalable, trading may simply not be for you.

Nothing New: Classical Charting and Institutional Behavior

Peter Brandt remains a master craftsman anchored in half a century of real trading. He still works from daily, weekly, and monthly consolidations using classical charting principles. The same principles appear in Schabacker's work from the 1930s and in Edwards and Magee's "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" from the 1940s.  

Pump-Coil-Dump Template in the daily USDJPY, July 2026.

A practical weekly process narrows breakout trading to a daily signal and then looks for the intraday template (pump-coil-dump or dump-coil-pump) that sets up in a specific session. Institutions work from price levels. Algorithms, HFTs, quant desks, and order-flow all reference those levels. There is no need for invented candlestick names or elaborate fairy tales. Mark the first trading day of a new month and the high/low of the new week. Watch whether a breakout succeeds or fails. Look for the two templates—buy low or sell high—when they present. Six instruments on a watch list is enough; two or three quality opportunities in a week is the goal.
 
A text-book Schabacker, Edwards and Magee Bullish Rectangle breakout with
a small "cup-and-handle". Higher timeframes always dominate lower ones.
Toby Crabel's opening-range works, Paul Tudor Jones's observations on range expansion, and the classic rectangle consolidations described by Brandt all point to the same reality. Price is always in a box. A 100 percent expansion of a prior range is not Fibonacci mysticism; it is classical measurement. Highest closing price of the month, high-of-week level, and simple 50 percent retracements of a range are visible to anyone who looks. Nothing is hidden.
 
» Most successful investors, in fact, do nothing most of the time. I just wait until there
is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.
I do nothing in the meantime. 
«

Discipline Over Instant Gratification
A friend who trades only reversals after 10:00 a.m. New York time (the third hour) demonstrates the power of a narrow, rinse-and-repeat edge. He does not chase every move; he waits for the same setup two or three times a week. That approach can produce "month money" from a single well-sized trade. Chasing algorithmic noise on tiny time frames is the retail trap that keeps traders small and inconsistent.

Trap-and-Shift Template: Institutional Behavior in the daily NASDAQ, July 2026.
 
Richard Dennis observed that you could publish the rules in a newspaper and almost no one would follow them. Consistency and the discipline to sit on your hands between high-probability setups are the real edge. Fifty-fifty coin-flip trades are losers; they are guesses. Capital is preserved for the infrequent moments when the market offers a clear, scalable opportunity.

The Trader Is the Only Variable
All markets will continue to do the same three things they have always done. If a method is simple, it can be repeated. If it has genuine edge, it can be scaled. Keep it simple. As Mark Douglas wrote, the goal is to create a state of mind that is unaffected by the market’s day-to-day behavior. That state begins with knowing exactly what you are hunting, executing it with discipline, and refusing to take the random trades that destroy accounts.
 

Buy After Three Higher Lows | Toby Crabel

One of the simplest—and most reliable—ways to recognize momentum is by counting higher lows.

 
On a five-minute chart, this pattern often marks the strongest intraday momentum moves.
 
When the market makes three or more higher lows in a row, it's showing sustained buying pressure. Each pullback is shallower, each rebound faster. The first pullback that actually takes out a bar low after a run like this often gives the best entry—because you're joining a trend that's already proven its strength.

The same logic applies in reverse for downtrends: a series of lower highs points to heavy selling pressure and strong downside continuation.

Friday, April 17, 2026

S&P 500 Strong Breakout Above All-Time High | Al Brooks

The daily chart of the SPY has broken above the all-time high. While this is positive for the bulls, the rally is becoming increasingly climactic, raising the likelihood of near-term profit-taking. Today is forming a climactic bull bar following yesterday's doji bull bar. That doji increases the probability of a pullback to yesterday's high within the next one to three trading days.
 
SPY (daily bars) — Close as of Friday, April 17, 2026: Three pushes and daily closes above the January all-time high.

» There are a lot of varying opinions about how the market moves, such as the Wyckoff method, Elliott Waves, Stacey Burke Trading, Steve Mauro’s BTMM, etc. However, one thing that all of these methods and models have in common is that the market moves in three pushes. After the third push in one direction, price typically moves into consolidation. During the second push, retail traders often assume the trend will continue and rush in. This creates a trap, where liquidity builds through clustered entries and stop-loss orders during the consolidation phase. By the third push, price is often already forming part of a broader peak (or trough) reversal pattern. « 
Cameron Benson, 2023.
The bulls are hoping for a close near today’s high, above the prior all-time high, while the bears are aiming for a selloff that leaves a tail above today's bar. Overall, the bulls have managed the rally well; however, it is now reaching a climactic stage, and risk for bulls is elevated. This increases the odds of a pullback over the next several bars and may limit further upside in the coming days as bulls begin taking partial profits.

Three weekly pushes off the March 30-31 major low and reversal.

Saturday, August 2, 2025

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Mid-August Low, Rally into September | Krasi

As expected, last week, the completion of minor Elliott Waves 4 and 5 led to a bearish weekly reversal, confirming the pattern on schedule and initiating a downward move. We are currently in week 17 of the 20-week cycle, with the cycle low expected within the next 1–3 weeks, likely mid-August, followed by an upward move into September.
 

Key upcoming milestones include a 40-week low in November or December 2025 and a 40-week high in February or March 2026. Market reversals typically occur gradually rather than with abrupt crashes. Thus, between now and February/March 2026, anticipate a series of highs and lows. After this period, the market is likely to experience a more pronounced decline. For historical parallels, examine the periods of January–August 2000, May–December 2007, and August 2021–March 2022. 

Monday, July 28, 2025

S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week | Krasi

The pattern is on track to complete this week at week 34, in line with the projected 40-week cycle high (typical range: 32–36 weeks). Market breadth is deteriorating, with persistent negative divergences confirming a sell bias.

An ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y suggests that the market is nearing the end of a five-wave impulsive move
(waves 1 through 5) within either wave C of a corrective pattern (e.g., a zigzag or flat) or wave Y of a complex correction
(e.g., a triangle or double/triple three).

This likely marks a significant top—at minimum a 40-week high—with increased probability that it’s the 4-year cycle peak. Minor waves 4 and 5 remain to complete, potentially finalizing an ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y, thus terminating the broader pattern.

Reference:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - Quick Update.

Every dip's a wave—until it’s not.

See also:

Saturday, July 19, 2025

"Bull Hook" Toby Crabel Price Pattern in the S&P 500

The Toby Crabel Bull Hook pattern, present on July 18 (Fri), in the S&P 500 Cash Index, implies a potential short-term upward move for trading starting July 21, 2025. 
 
A Bull Hook happens when a bar has a lower range than the previous one, with its opening price
higher than the previous bar’s high and its closing price lower than the previous bar’s close.
 
Price action created the narrowest range of the last 8 days with a lower daily close. The daily bar has a "hook" shape (a bull flag on lower timeframes), hinting at a potential reversal to the upside due to consolidation and a shift in sentiment. The Bull Hook pattern is generally bullish, opening above the previous day's high and closing lower with a narrowing range. It's often followed by upward price moves in the days after. 
 
A recent analysis by Ali Casey provides additional insights. The Bull Hook pattern has limitations, including its better performance in trending or volatile markets, the potential for false signals and losses in some cases, and its reliance on precise execution, which can be influenced by news or macroeconomic events.
 

Sunday, July 13, 2025

"8 Bar Narrow Range" (8BNR) Toby Crabel Price Pattern in the NASDAQ

The 8 Bar Narrow Range (8BNR) is a technical trading pattern developed by Toby Crabel, introduced in his book "Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout". 
 
 
It is part of his framework of price action patterns that focus on periods of volatility contraction (narrow price ranges) as precursors to potential volatility expansion (significant price movements). Here's an explanation of what the 8BNR pattern suggests and its implications for traders:

The 8BNR pattern occurs when the 8-day range (the difference between the highest high and the lowest low over an 8-day period) is the narrowest range compared to any other 8-day period within the last 40 trading sessionsThis indicates a period of low volatility or price consolidation, where the market has been trading in a relatively tight range over the past eight days compared to recent history.

The 8BNR signals a potential breakout, but it does not specify the direction. Traders often use the pattern in conjunction with Crabel’s ORB strategy:
 
Long Trade: Place a buy stop order at the open price plus the "stretch" (a calculated value based on the 10-day simple moving average of the smaller difference between the open and high/low).
Short Trade: Place a sell stop order at the open price minus the stretch.
 
Crabel’s research suggests that breakouts are more likely to be profitable if they occur early in the trading session. Trades triggered later in the day carry higher risk and may warrant smaller position sizes or avoidance of overnight holds. The 8BNR is more reliable when it occurs after a clear trend or during a pullback in a trending market. Multiple narrow range patterns in close proximity (e.g., consecutive NR7 or 3BNR, 4BNR, 8BNR days) may indicate congestion, reducing the reliability of the breakout.


Like all technical patterns, the 8BNR is not foolproof. False breakouts, market noise, or unexpected events can lead to losses. Traders should avoid mechanical application and incorporate additional technical or fundamental analysis to confirm signals. Always combine the pattern with other market analysis for best results.
  

Saturday, May 17, 2025

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis | Krasi

We now have a potentially completed pattern on the hourly chart, with the schedule aligning to week 8 for the 10-week high, suggesting it's time for a pullback toward the 10-week low.


In the short term, the RSI appears to form a triangle in the middle, suggesting a possible zig-zag pattern with a running triangle as the Elliott B-wave. In the intermediate term, a zig-zag pattern is testing the 200-day moving average and the RSI trendline.
The next move is a pullback, followed by a rise into July.
 

In the short term, Hurst cycles are nearing the 10-week high, with the next move likely to be a decline toward the 10-week low.


The 40-week low in early April 2025 was right on schedule, with the next move expected to be a rise toward the 40-week high.
 
»
Absent an escalating trade war, there is no theme right now that can push stocks massively lower (i.e. re-test the April lows). 
I expect stocks to trade in a wide and volatile range throughout 2025 [...] perhaps making marginal all-time highs. «
 
See also:

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Support Holds on S&P 500, Bullish Pattern Targets 6,100s | Stephen Suttmeier


First support shifts slightly to the 5870s-5850s area on the S&P 500, which bent but did not decisively break last week. Continuing to hold this support would keep the pattern bullish, with upside potential to the July-September cup and handle. The early 2022 to early 2024 big base breakout targets are into the 6,100s. The cup and handle breakout and retest zone at 5,700-5,650 offers additional support.


The S&P 500 advance-decline (A-D) line reached a new high on Friday (11/22), and the NYSE Composite stocks A-D line hit a new high yesterday (11/25). This neutralizes the mid-October to early November bearish divergences for these market breadth indicators. It also provides bullish confirmation for the new highs on the NYSE and serves as a potential leading indicator for new highs on the S&P 500, increasing the likelihood of following bullish seasonality into year-end.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 26, 2024 [HERE], and [HERE]
 

Trend-wise, while the cap-weighed S&P 500 continues to float above its trendline, the chart above shows that the index is only two standard deviations above trend. At major extremes it can reach three standard deviations.

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

S&P 500 Weekly High Expected October 21-22 | Robert Miner


E-mini S&P 500 weekly high probable by next week, ideally around October 21-22 (Mon-Tue). Followed by a 2-3 week correction. And Election Year Fall to Year End net bullish trend.

 

On Monday, October 14, the net percentage of S&P 500 members hitting 52-week highs reached the highest level (22%) since March. Forward returns for the S&P 500 have consistently been positive after strong readings in net new highs.
 

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

S&P 500 Cup-and-Handle Breakout Targets 5,930 & 6,180 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 has experienced a bullish breakout from a cup-and-handle formation that formed between July and September, indicating potential upside targets of 5,930 and 6,180. 


Seasonal trends for the fourth quarter further support these targets. Last week’s tactical breakout appears strong, with support near the 5,775-5,745 range. Importantly, the cup-and-handle pattern remains intact as long as the S&P 500 stays above the 5,600s.


Friday, August 23, 2024

Recent Toby Crabel Price Pattern Setups in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures