ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup | Darya Filipenka

Algorithmic trading is a method of executing trades using pre-programmed instructions or algorithms that automatically trigger trades based on certain conditions. It's a fascinating approach that can help traders make more precise and efficient decisions. Now, let's focus on a specific algorithmic trading model called the TGIF (Thank God It's Friday) setup. This is a day-based algorithmic trading model that can be applied to all assets. As the name suggests, this model is designed to be used on Fridays. The TGIF setup focus is on a market pullback into the current weekly range. It is particularly effective when anchored against higher time frame analysis.

» In the last portion of Friday’s trading, if it hasn't occurred yet, you can expect some retracement of the weekly range. «

Michael J. Huddleston, 2023

When using the TGIF setup it's crucial to approach from a top-down perspective. This means starting with higher time frame analysis, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction. In candlestick analysis, there is a concept called the ICT Power of 3. This refers to a specific pattern and distribution phase that can indicate a potential reversal or exhaustion in the market. By studying the one-month chart, you identify the weekly range and its key levels. You apply Fibonacci levels to pinpoint the sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur. You also conduct top-down analysis by examining higher time frame charts to get a broader view of the market's direction. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation. 

To apply the TGIF setup, follow these steps:

1. Start by analyzing the higher time frame charts, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction.
2. Identify the Weekly Range Profile and its key levels, such as the High and the Low of the range.
3. Use Fibonacci levels to pinpoint sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur.
4. Look for the pullback into the weekly range.
5. Pay attention to the ICT Power of 3 pattern in candlestick analysis, which can indicate potential reversals or exhaustion.
6. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation, a powerful pattern that provides valuable insights into market dynamics.
7. Combine all these analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions using the TGIF setup.

Quoted from:
Darya Filipenka (2023) - Algorithmic Trading - TGIF.

 

Michael J. Huddleston (June 19, 2023) - The TGIF Setup.

 

See also: 
Michael J. Huddleston (September 27, 2022) - ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 07 - Defining Weekly Range Profiles. (video)

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.

Daye (2024) - The Quarterly Theory.
TPR (2023) - The ICT Power of 3: Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD).
TPR (2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD).

S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley

After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average.

 'Best Six Months' ends in April.

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.

This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Mar 24, 2024) @ Twitter/X 

 

 

Reference:

 ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

The Quarterly Theory | Daye

 

THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for the time frame of interest in search of the period which has demonstrated the most barometric acumen in predicting the performance of the upcoming time frame of interest. 

 

This week I ask the model for it’s prognosis for the S&P in the last week of March. It responded that the prior ten calendar days (Mar10-24) had a very uncanny track record of forecasting the last week of March with those 2 time frames having a very strong NEGATIVE correlation which doesn’t bode well for next week given that March 10-24 was up 1.63% this year.  

 

Note the 3-10, March 24-31 performance in the far right category below in those 13 prior years where March 10-24 was greater than 1.2% for an avg wkly loss of 0.74% with 1% moves 1-7 to the downside.  This contrasts dramatically to the 11-2 performance when March 10-24 was less than -0.5%.  Fingers crossed that it is wrong this year. 

 

The outlook for April is much brighter. 

 

  

Reference: 

 Wayne Whaley (Mar 23, 2024) @ Twitter/X

 

[ oftentimes true: ]

 

In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 

In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.

 

The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

 

 

We are in the quiet part of the year still.
Spring is coming to the markets very soon.

The year, if viewed as a single range ... we are in the Accumulation phase still.
Don't blow your equity before the salad days return.

January to April is the yearly Accumulation.
April to May is the Manipulation.
May to November is the Distribution.
December resets the yearly range.

Power of 3

Now go lose sleep over it in your charts.

You won't appreciate this until you pour
over all markets and asset classes and then your ass will hit the floor.
 

 Michael J. Huddleston

 

 Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Private Mentorship Core Content 

- Month 05 - Ideal Seasonal Tendencies. (video)

 

Time is more important than Price.

 

 

Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution

 

 

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD

 

A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

The ‘ICT Power Of 3’ Concept & ‘ICT Killzones’ | Rounak Agarwal

The ‘ICT Power Of 3’ concept is a key component of any trading strategy or model developed by Michael J. Huddleston a.k.a. 'The Inner Circle Trader' (ICT), and explained as under:

 

1. Typical Bullish Day

 

Figure 1

 

Price will go below the opening price at midnight [all times refer to New York local time] to lure retail traders into going short. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders (SMT) will buy the shorts placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally higher to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or sell a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the high of day and close near the high, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will sell the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go short.

2. Typical Bearish Day
 

Figure 2

 

Price will go above the opening price at midnight to lure retail traders into going long. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders will sell the buy orders placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally lower to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or square off a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the low of day and close near the low, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will square off the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go long.

3. Typical Bullish Week
 

Figure 3

 

Price will go below the opening price at Sunday’s opening to lure retail traders into going short. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders will buy the shorts placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally higher to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or sell a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the weekly high and close near the high, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will sell the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go short.

4. Typical Bearish Week
 

Figure 4

 

Price will go above the opening price at Sunday’s opening to lure retail traders into going long. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders will sell the buy orders placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally lower to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or square off a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the weekly low and close near the low, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will square off the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go long.

Another technical analysis concept from Michael J. Huddleston is ‘ICT Killzones’, which are the highest probability time-ranges for price to make big moves in the markets. This is an integral part of ‘ICT Power Of 3’ and both are to be used in conjunction to see the markets like the ICT. The researcher has dealt only with two of ‘ICT Killzones’ here, which are:

1. ICT London Open Killzone – 02:00 to 05:00 New York local time
2. ICT New York Open Killzone – 07:00 to 10:00 New York local time which is extendable to 11:00 due to release of important economic reports, news, Fed chairperson speeches, etc. scheduled at 10:00.

Some important things to bear in mind:

1. The researcher has considered market state to be bullish if the amount of difference from open to low is less than open to high. Similarly, market state is bearish if the amount of difference from open to low is more than open to high. Days and weeks with neutral market state, i.e., where the amount of difference from open to low was equal to the amount of difference from open to high, were omitted. They were very few and the researcher believes that the omission did not affect the findings to a significant degree.
2. Sunday was omitted in calculation of average daily movement and average hourly movement for each pair to prevent inconsistencies. For the same reason, it was not considered in finding out frequency of days when price made high/low of bearish/bullish week.
3. All time ranges, etc. have been considered in the form of New York local time, adjusted for Daylight Savings Time (DST).
4. Average Daily Movement – It is the average of the daily ranges (low to high) of that particular year.
5. Average Weekly Movement – It is the average of the weekly ranges (low to high) of that particular year.
6. Average Daily Movement during ‘Accumulation phase’ – It is the average range of the ‘accumulation phase’ (open to high/low) of ‘bearish’/’bullish’ days of that particular year.
7. Average Weekly Movement during ‘Accumulation phase’ – It is the average range of the ‘accumulation phase’ (open to high/low) of ‘bearish’/’bullish’ weeks of that particular year.
8. SMT – ICT terms smart money traders as ‘SMT’. These traders know how to keep themselves in line with the algorithm and profit from trading. On the other hand, retail traders, according to Michael J. Huddleston, are those who are not trading but ‘gambling’. These ‘traders’ do not have an understanding of the market which they can rely upon and not hop from strategy to strategy, indicator to indicator instead.
9. ‘ICT Killzones’ has been shown only in Figure 1 to serve as an example. The explanation provided with Figure 4 does not comply completely with the figure, and it is because ICT’s concepts are not fixed rules. Also, the main idea has not been invalidated, as we can see in the figure that the low of the week formed after the week’s high was formed.

Quoted from:

Rounak Agarwal (2023) - A study to assess the validity of Michael J. Huddleston’s

technical analysis concept (ICT Power Of 3) in the foreign exchange market.

 

See also:

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game.

 Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - External & Internal Range Liquidity: Auction Process & Institutional Order Flow. 

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - The ICT Power of 3. Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD).

TPR (2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD). 

The ICT Power of 3 | Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD)

Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution.

 

 ICT Power of 3 Explained in 11 Minutes.

Reference:

 The Inner Circle Trader (2017) - Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution.

Faiz SMC (2023) - ICT Power of 3 Explained in 11 Minutes. 

ICT Trading Method - Power of 3 (YouTube playlist of ICT's trading method)

 

See also:

The Inner Circle Trader (Nov 24, 2020) - Revisiting The Friday Asian Range.

 The Inner Circle Trader (2016) - Implementing The Asian Range.
The Inner Circle Trader (2016) - Friday Asian Range Concept - Algorithmic Theory.

The Inner Circle Trader (2016) - Premium ICT Mentorship - Core Content Lectures.

TPR (May 30, 2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD).

Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD)

Accumulation (A) of positions generally occurs during the Asian session. The accumulation is characterized by being a consolidation.
Manipulation (M) usually occurs at the opening of the London session (sometimes at the NY open). It consists of taking the price to the opposite side of the true directional Expansion of the rest of the day.
Distribution (D) occurs when Market Makers liquidate (exit) their positions.

This AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), and  a value of the time it ends trading (close). The AMD-Principle can be observed in all financial markets - Forex, stocks, indices, commodities, bonds, etc.

 Michael J. Huddleston a.k.a. ICT:
“The origin behind this idea was inspired by my mentor Larry Williams.
He made a point in one of his lectures that he wished he knew
how traders could be buying below the open on an up day or sell above the open on a down day.
And I took that as a personal challenge, and spent the first quarter of my 25 years
of my career as a trader mastering just that concept.
I felt that it was enough for me to work towards cracking that code.
And I think I've done it.”

 

References: 

ICT Origins - Larry Williams and Power Of 3 Concept.
WadeFX (2021) - Market Structure & Powerful Setups [151 p.]
ICT Forex - Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution, Dec 09, 2017.

 

See also:

TPR (2022) - Richard D. Wyckoff's Accumulation & Distribution Schematics.