Showing posts with label Pattern. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pattern. Show all posts

Friday, May 31, 2024

Broadening Formations & The Third Universal Truth | Robert F. Smith

The Third Universal Truth is this: There is only ONE price pattern. Everything trades in a continuous series of broadening formations because there are only three scenarios that can possibly play out from one bar to the next. Therefore only THREE types of bars exist: the Outside Bar, the Inside Bar, and the Directional Bar. It is impossible for price to do anything else. Range expansion on both sides occurs ONLY because Outside Bars exist. 

Broadening Formation on quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily Apple Inc (AAPL) charts.
Inside Bar = 1 | Directional Bar = 2 | Outside Bar = 3

Almost every book on technical analysis claims that the broadening formation is extremely rare, when the truth is it is one of the only things that can possibly happen. A broadening formation is a pattern where ranges continue to expand on both sides, thus an outside bar is a broadening formation when you shorten the time frame of the chart. It must be because by definition the range is expanding on both sides. While many traders will talk about stocks making higher lows and lower highs, one thing is that securities will always trade in a series of higher highs and lower lows. Even if a stock is in a steady uptrend from, say, $80 to $100, somewhere along the way that stock will make a series of higher highs and lower lows on some time frame. 
 
 Basic Diagram of the Broadening Formation.

While this may seem irrational, it helps to analyze this statement from the perspective of supply and demand. When a stock reaches a new high, it means that a new group of buyers have been identified above the previous high. Eventually, that buying pressure exhausts, and the stock retreats. This new group of buyers becomes trapped, and this will create pressure to the downside, either on a short-term time frame or a long-term time frame. Inevitably, the stock will eventually get pushed towards a previous low, whether it's a recent low on a 15 minute chart or a major inflection point on a monthly chart. As the stock pushes towards this low, those buyers at highs will succumb to the selling pressure, drive the stock to a new low that is bought up by the sideline traders or natural buyers, and the stock will resume higher until it reaches the next new high. This series repeats itself, which creates a formation that can be fit into a triangle.
 
 Nasdaq (Daily Bars)
Inside Bar = 1 | Directional Bar = 2 | Outside Bar = 3
Every chart shows but Broadening Formations, nested series of Range Contractions and Range Expansions
on yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily and lower time frame charts. Full Time Frame Continuity occurs when all time frames point in the same direction, providing a more reliable assessment of the market's direction.

Nasdaq (4 Hour Bars)
Inside Bar = 1 | Directional Bar = 2 | Outside Bar = 3
 
Broadening Formations = ICT Seek & Destroy Profile
 
How to find a Broadening Formation?
  1. Identify an Outside Bar on a Higher Time Frame.
  2. Remember an Outside Bar takes out BOTH sides of the previous bar's range. This is how we gauge the potential magnitude of an expected move.
  3. An Outside Bar = A Broadening Formation on a Lower Time Frame chart. This is a FACT. Ignore previous Technical Analysis textbooks.
  4. Locate the High of the Outside Bar and DRAW BACK to a previous Higher High (HH Point #1 to #2). Generally try and use an extended line type drawing tool on your charting software as this will extend the line forward.
  5. Locate the Low of the Outside Bar and DRAW BACK to a previous Lower Low (LL Point #1 to #2).
  6. View the same chart on a Lower Time frame and watch the magic happen. Now you have a Broadening Formation.
  7. Note depending on your charting software you may have to adjust your lines at key high and low points when switching between different time frame charts this is normal and due to the difference in candlesticks between timeframes.
Reference:
 
 Robert Franklin 'Rob' Smith (1964-2023).
Life and death of a sporty American reborn Christian trader. R.I.P.
 
#TheStrat Setups with Entry, Stop and Target Levels. 
#TheStrat Risk/Reward Ratios are mostly sub-optimal.
ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) strategies do improve poor #TheStrat RR-Ratios significantly.
 
28 #TheStrat Setups = 14 bullish + 14 bearish. 
 Inside Bar = 1 | Directional Bar = 2 | Outside Bar = 3

Monday, May 30, 2022

Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD)

Accumulation (A) of positions generally occurs during the Asian session. The accumulation is characterized by being a consolidation.
Manipulation (M) usually occurs at the opening of the London session (sometimes at the NY open). It consists of taking the price to the opposite side of the true directional Expansion of the rest of the day.
Distribution (D) occurs when Market Makers liquidate (exit) their positions.

This AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), and  a value of the time it ends trading (close). The AMD-Principle can be observed in all financial markets - Forex, stocks, indices, commodities, bonds, etc.


 Michael J. Huddleston a.k.a. ICT:
The origin behind this idea was inspired by my mentor Larry Williams.
He made a point in one of his lectures that he wished he knew
how traders could be buying below the open on an up day or sell above the open on a down day.
And I took that as a personal challenge, and spent the first quarter of my 25 years
of my career as a trader mastering just that concept.
I felt that it was enough for me to work towards cracking that code.
And I think I've done it.
 
References
 
See also:

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Contraction > Breakout > Expansion | Toby Crabel's Price Patterns

Larry Williams described all of market's action
in 8 patterns characterized by direction, contraction
and expansion (e.g. HERE)
In 1990 Toby Crabel published Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout. The book is about the fundamental nature of price action, about contraction and expansion, the ebb and flow of price in all markets. Looking at daily bar charts, expect breakouts and / or changes in trend after the following price bar patterns:
 
Narrow Range (NR): A price bar's range less than the previous bar's range. The opposite of NR is Wide Spread (see below). NR is technically NR2 when compared to NR4, NR5, and NR7 (see below; more e.g. HERE).  

Narrow Range 4 (NR4): A price bar's range less than the previous 3 bars' ranges is the narrowest range in 4 days or NR4. The opposite is WS4 (see below; more e.g. HERE). 

On Dec 13 (Thu) the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures and other US stock indices performed a IDnr4 down day.

Narrow Range 5 (NR5): A price bar's range less than the previous 4 bars' ranges is the narrowest range in 5 days or NR5. The opposite is WS5.
 

Narrow Range 7 (NR7): A price bar's range less than the previous 6 bars' ranges is the narrowest range in 7 days or NR7. The opposite is WS7 (more e.g. HERE).

Wide Spread (WS): A price bar's range wider than the previous bar's range is a WS. The opposite is NR. WS is technically WS2 when compared to WS4, WS5, and WS7 (more e.g. HERE).
 

Wide Spread 4 (WS4): A price bar's range wider than the previous 3 bars' ranges is the widest range in 4 days or WS4. The opposite is NR4.
 

Wide Spread 5 (WS5): A price bar's range wider than the previous 4 bars' ranges is the widest range in 5 days or WS5. The opposite is NR5. 

Wide Spread 7
(WS7): A price bar's range wider than the previous 6 bars' ranges is the widest range in 7 days or WS7. The opposite is NR7.

Inside Day (ID): If the high of the current day is lower than the high of the previous day AND the low of the current day is higher than the low of the previous day we have an ID or Inside Day. The opposite is an OD (more e.g. HERE).

Outside Day (OD): If the high of the current day is higher than the high of the previous day AND the low of the current day is lower than the low of the previous day then we have an OD or Outside Day. The opposite is an ID
(more e.g. HERE).

Inside Day (ID) and NR4 (
IDnr4): An IDnr4 is a combination of an ID and a NR4. This happens when the current day's high is lower than the previous day's high AND the current day's low is higher than the previous day's low AND the range is the narrowest when compared to the previous 3 trading days (more e.g. HERE).

2 Bar Narrow Range (
2BNR): The 2-day-range (the higher of the 2 highs less the lower of the 2 lows) is the narrowest 2-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions.

3 Bar Narrow Range (3BNR): The 3-day-range (the higher of the 3 highs less the lower of the 3 lows) is the narrowest 3-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions.

4 Bar Narrow Range (
4BNR): The 4-day-range (the higher of the 4 highs less the lower of the 4 lows) is the narrowest 4-day-range in the last 30 trading sessions.

8 Bar Narrow Range (
8BNR): The 8-day-range (the higher of the 8 highs less the lower of the 8 lows) is the narrowest 8-day-range in the last 40 trading sessions.

BearHook: A NR with the Open less than the previous bar's Low AND the Close greater than the previous bar's Close (more
e.g. HERE).

BullHook: A NR with the Open greater than the previous bar's High AND the Close less than the previous bar's Close (more
e.g. HERE).

Stretch: The Stretch is calculated by taking the 10 period SMA of the absolute difference between the Open and either the High or Low, whichever difference is smaller. For example: if Open = 1,250, High = 1,258, Low = 1,240, then take the value of 8 for that day because 1,258 - 1,250 = 8 which is smaller than 1,250 - 1,240 = 10. Then add together all of these values for the last 10 trading days and divide this by 10 to get the 10 day SMA. This value will then become the Stretch. The Stretch is used in calculating where to enter the trade and where to place a stop using the ORB and ORBP trading strategies (see below). 


Simple Moving Average (SMA): An SMA is calculated over a number of candles/bars in a chart as the simple average value of that number of bars, e.g. the SMA for the last 10 days closing prices of the DJIA: add together the closing prices for the last 10 days of the DJIA and then divide that by 10 = 10 day SMA. You do not need to use just the closing price to calculate this. You can also use the Open, High, Low, and Close or a combination of any of those, e.g. HLC/3.

Opening Range Breakout (ORB): Using this strategy, a buy stop is placed just above the Open price plus the Stretch and a sell stop just below the Open price minus the Stretch. The first stop triggered enters the trader into the trade and the other stop becomes the protective stop. The earlier in the trading session the entry stop is hit the more likely the trade will be profitable at the close. A market movement that kicks off a trend quickly in the current trading session could add significant profit to a trader's position by the close and should be considered for a multi-day trade. As time passes and we are not filled early on then the risk increases and it becomes prudent to reduce the size of the position during the day. Trades filled towards the end of the day carry the most risk and the later in the day the trade is filled the less likely the trader will want to carry that trade overnight (more
e.g. HERE).

Variations of this strategy include the
Opening Range Breakout Preference (ORBP): An ORBP trade is a one sided ORB trade. If other technical indicators show a strong trend in one direction then the trader will exercise a "Preference" for the direction in which to trade the ORB trade. A stop to open a position would be placed on the side of the trend only and if filled a protective stop would then be placed. The calculation of where to place the "stop to open" would be the same as that for the ORB trade: For longs, the Open price plus the Stretch and for shorts the Open price minus the Stretch. The ORBP trade is a specialized form of the ORB trade (more e.g. HERE). 

Saturday, November 21, 2015

SPX vs 23 Trading Day Cycle

This could be an ending diagonal triangle developing up into the winter solstice to top around 2,165.
Since 1987, the DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to year end (HERE)



Thursday, November 5, 2015

German DAX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

However, the Nasdaq dropped only by -0.1% or -2.65 points on Nov 4 (Wed) while the RASI was still rising, and Thomas Bulkowski
remarks: Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 541 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's: Average
gain was 0.7% on 295 occasions. Average loss was -0.9% on 246 occasions. Expect the index to close higher 54.5% [on Nov 5].
Tekkie Suresh: "Rahu getting involved with Venus and Mars, points to a trough around November mid month, Should see  a recovery thereafter."
Jeff Hirsch (Nov 3, 2015) - In the most recent 21-year period spanning 1994 to 2014, November opens strong, peaks around the fourth
trading day, trades lower till the eighth trading day, bounces mid-month, moves sideway to down during the week before Thanksgiving
then higher to close out the month with gains ranging from just under 1.5% for Russell 2000 to over 2% for DJIA.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

S&P 500 = Inside Day Narrow Range 4

HERE











HERE & HERE




















Buy the ORB of the S&P 500 cash above 1558.25
Sell the
ORB of the S&P 500 cash below 1555.50

Buy the ORB of the E-mini S&P500 June 2013 above 1554.00
Sell the
ORB of the E-mini S&P500 June 2013 below 1547.25

Thomas Bulkowski:
The breakout from a diamond top is downward 69% of the time.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Definition of Price Patterns | Toby Crabel

Toby Crabel wrote a book called 'Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout' which is no longer in print and sometimes sold on eBay for more than $1,000. In this book he defines a number of trading patterns which have become popular numbers to calculate and watch among day traders and swing traders. He is a United States self-made billionaire commodities trader. The Financial Times called him "the most well-known trader on the counter-trend side." He is the fund manager of 'Crabel Capital Management', ranking number 101 out of 196 funds on Absolute Return magazine list Absolute Return survey of U.S. groups with more than $1 billion AUM, July 2005. This is the latest current ranking of the top 196 money managers in the US. Toby Crabel manages 3.2 billion dollars and had a growth of 16.7% in 2005. A producer of consistent returns whatever the weather, Crabel had avoided having a losing year from 1991 to 2002. The following are definitions of some of Crabel's concepts, patterns and setups.

Stretch
The Stretch is calculated by taking the 10 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the absolute difference between the Open and either the High or Low, whichever difference is smaller.
 
For example, if the Open is 1250, the High is 1258, and the Low is 1240, then we would take the value of 8 for that day because 1258-1250 is 8 which is smaller than 1250-1240 which is 10. We then add together all of these values for the last 10 trading days and divide this by 10 to get the 10 day SMA. This value will then become the Stretch. Stretch Calculation:

1.  Take the Open, High and Low of each day.
2.  Find delta of High - Open.
3.  Find delta of Open - Low.
4.  Which ever is lower between step 1 and step 2 take that value for each day.
5.  Stretch = average of the values of past 10 days.

The Stretch is used in calculating where to enter the trade and where to place a stop using the ORB and ORBP trading strategies. Before buying and selling the Stretch, also consider support and resistance-levels derived from the Daily Classic Pivot Point.

Opening Range Breakout = ORB
Using this strategy, the trader places a buy stop just above the Open price plus the Stretch and a sell stop just below the Open price minus the Stretch. The first stop triggered enters the trader into the trade and the other stop becomes the protective stop.
 
Crabel's research shows that the earlier in the trading session the entry stop is hit the more likely the trade will be profitable at the close. A market movement that kicks off a trend quickly in the current trading session could add significant profit to a trader's position by the close and should be considered for a multi-day trade.
 
The ORB can be utilized as a general indicator of bias every day. Whichever side of the stretch is traded first will indicate bias in that direction for the next two to three hours of the session. This information alone will keep you out of trouble, if nothing else.
 
Multiple contracts can be used when entering on an ORB or ORBP. This allows for some profit taking as the move continues to guarantee at least some profit in the case of a pullback to the break-even stop. A trailing stop is also very effective.
 
If you miss the ORB and early entry occurred, any 3/8 to 1/2 retracement of the established range can be used as an entry point with stops beyond the 5/8 level. This technique can be utilized twice, but becomes treacherous on the third retracement.

Extending Crabel's research results it is obvious that as time passes and we are not filled early on then the risk increases and it becomes prudent to reduce the size of the position during the day. Trades filled towards the end of the day carry the most risk and the later in the day the trade is filled the less likely the trader will want to carry that trade overnight. Variations of this strategy include the Opening Range Breakout Preference (ORBP - HERE).

Opening Range Breakout Preference = ORBP
An ORBP trade is a one sided Opening Range Breakout (ORB) trade. If other technical indicators show a strong trend in one direction then the trader will exercise a "Preference" for the direction in which to trade the ORB trade. A stop to open a position would be placed on the side of the trend only and if filled a protective stop would then be placed. The calculation of where to place the "stop to open" would be the same as that for the ORB trade: For longs, the Open price plus the Stretch and for shorts the Open price minus the Stretch. The ORBP trade is a specialized form of the ORB trade (HERE).  

Narrow Range = NR
If a price bar's Range is less than the previous bar's range it is said to have an NR. The opposite of NR is Wide Spread (WS). NR is technically NR2 when compared to NR4, NR5, and NR7.
Type: Trend-Continuation or Short-Term Breakout Set-up.
Conditions: The current bar has the narrowest range (high - low) of the last X bars. The bar may or may not be an inside bar. Buy and Sell reference are the high and low of the NR bar.
 
Narrow Range 4 = NR4
If a price bar's Range is less than the previous 3 bars' ranges (measured independently) it is said to have the narrowest range in 4 days or NR4. The opposite of NR4 is WS4. NR, NR5, and NR7 are also closely watched price patterns. 
Type: Trend-Continuation or Short-Term Breakout Set-up.

Narrow Range 5 = NR5
If a price bar's Range is less than the previous 4 bars' ranges (measured independently) it is said to have the narrowest range in 5 days or NR5. The opposite of NR5 is WS5. NR, NR4, and NR7 are also closely watched price patterns. 
Type: Trend-Continuation or Short-Term Breakout Set-up


Narrow Range 7
 
= NR7
If a price bar's Range is less than the previous 6 bars' ranges (measured independently) it is said to have the narrowest range in 7 days or NR7. The opposite of NR7 is WS7. NR, NR4, and NR5 are also closely watched price patterns.
Type: Trend-Continuation or Short-Term Breakout Set-up.

Wide Spread = WS
If a price bar's Range is wider than the previous bar's range it is said to have a WS. The opposite of WS is NR. WS is technically WS2 when compared to WS4, WS5, and WS7.

Wide Spread 4 = WS4
If a price bar's Range is wider than the previous 3 bars' ranges (measured independently) it is said to have the widest range in 4 days or WS4. The opposite of WS4 is NR4. WS, WS5, and WS7 are also closely watched price patterns.
 
Wide Spread 5 = WS5
If a price bar's Range is wider than the previous 4 bars' ranges (measured independently) it is said to have the widest range in 5 days or WS5. The opposite of WS5 is NR5. WS, WS4, and WS7 are also closely watched price patterns.

Wide Spread 7 = WS7
If a price bar's Range is wider than the previous 6 bars' ranges (measured independently) it is said to have the widest range in 7 days or WS7. The opposite of WS7 is NR7. WS, WS4, and WS5 are also closely watched price patterns. 

Inside Day/Bar = ID
If the high of the current day is lower than the high of the previous day AND the low of the current day is higher than the low of the previous day then we have an ID or Inside Day. The opposite to an ID is an Outside Day (OD).  
Type: Trend-Continuation or Short-Term Breakout Set-up.

Outside Day/Bar = OD
If the high of the current day is higher than the high of the previous day AND the low of the current day is lower than the low of the previous day then we have an OD or Outside Day. The opposite to an OD is an Inside Day (ID).

Bear Hook
Bear Hook is a day in which the open is below the previous day's low and the close is above the previous day's close with a narrow range relative to the previous day. As implied by the name there is a tendency for the price action following a Bear Hook to move to the downside. In other words: A Bear Hook occurs when you have an NR with the Open less than the previous bar's Low AND the Close greater than the previous bar's Close.
 
 
Bull Hook
A Bull Hook occurs on Day 2. A Bull Hook is defined as a day with a higher open than the previous day's high followed by a lower close with a narrowing daily range. The next day (Day 1), a trade is taken on the initial move off the open, preferably to the upside.In other words: A Bull Hook occurs when you have an NR with the Open greater than the previous bar's High AND the Close less than the previous bar's Close.


Inside Day
/Bar Narrow Range 4 = IDnr4
IDnr4 is an Inside Day (ID) with a Narrow Range 4 (NR4). This is a combination of an ID and an NR4. This happens when the current day's high is lower than the previous day's high AND the current day's low is higher than the previous day's low AND the range is the narrowest when compared to the previous 3 trading days. 


2-Bar Narrow Range
= 2BNR
If the 2-day-range (the higher of the 2 highs less the lower of the 2 lows) is the narrowest 2-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions then we are currently sitting on a 2BNR.
 

3-Bar Narrow Range = 3BNR
If the 3-day-range (the higher of the 3 highs less the lower of the 3 lows) is the narrowest 3-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions then this is true.

4-Bar Narrow Range = 4BNR
If the 4-day-range (the higher of the 4 highs less the lower of the 4 lows) is the narrowest 4-day-range in the last 30 trading sessions then this is true.

8-Bar Narrow Range = 8BNR
If the 8-day-range (the higher of the 8 highs less the lower of the 8 lows) is the narrowest 8-day-range in the last 40 trading sessions then this is true.
 
Reference:
 
See also: