Silver's recent surge marks the early stage of a major bull market, driven by long-term structural forces rather than short-term speculation. I challenge analysts who date macro bull cycles from 2000 due to recency bias, arguing instead that the true departure from sound money began with the Federal Reserve's establishment or the post-1933 era of gold confiscation and the Great Depression.
Broader macro dynamics reinforce this outlook. A weakening US dollar is prompting rotation into precious metals (Silver, Gold, Platinum), emerging markets (e.g., Africa and Latin America ETFs), and commodities. Declining US shale oil production—the first year-over-year drop in history—signals supply constraints that could drive substantial inflation, necessitating further money printing, higher rates, and accelerated dollar depreciation in a self-reinforcing cycle favoring hard assets.
Supporting
evidence appears in parallel breakouts: gold miners versus the S&P
500, Silver versus Gold (a massive base signaling outperformance), and
currencies like the Swiss franc against the dollar—all linked primarily
to dollar weakness rather than isolated fundamentals. I advise against
complexity via frequent trading, premature profit-taking, or asset class rotations.
Instead, acquire undervalued assets and hold through the cycle. This
commodity upswing is nascent; base metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel,
Zinc, Lead), energy, and agriculture should join precious metals higher
in 2026.
Successful
investing requires aligning three timeframes: short-term (highly
volatile and news-driven), medium-term (a few years, moderately stable),
and long-term (a decade or more, frequently ignored). The greatest
opportunities emerge when all are bullish. While short-term timing is
notoriously difficult—explaining widespread losses among day
traders—favorable long- and medium-term trends allow investors to endure
temporary setbacks through patient holding of undervalued positions.
Peter Brandt, December 26, 2025.
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