Showing posts with label ICT Weekly Range Profiles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ICT Weekly Range Profiles. Show all posts

Monday, February 5, 2024

Implementing Economic Calendar Events | Darya Filipenka

 
One of the primary reasons for studying the economic calendar is to anticipate and manage potential volatility in the markets. Economic events can have a profound impact on market sentiment and can cause significant price fluctuations. For example, an unexpected interest rate hike by the Central Bank can lead to a sharp sell-off in the stock market, while positive economic data can boost investor confidence and drive prices higher. The focus should be on High Impact and Medium Impact News Events.

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Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The Weekly Opening Range & ICT Weekly Range Profiles

The Weekly Opening Range is defined by Monday's range. Monday sets the Opening Range high and low for the entire week. Tuesday may extend that range. It could become a false break, a break and range extension, a reversal, or maybe an inside day. In a large majority of weeks, by the time Monday and Tuesday has traded, the high or low extreme is in place for the week, and one of these will tend to hold, the other may get broken.  
 

After Monday's Weekly Opening Range only three things can happen on Tuesday:
  1. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Trend.
  2. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Reverse into the Opening Range (false breakout or stop hunt).
  3. A Trading Range between Highs and Lows of the Opening Range (inside day).
Coming into Wednesday, look for the following:
  • Did Monday or Tuesday close as an inside day?
  • Did Tuesday's breakout fail?
  • Did Tuesday close outside of Monday's Opening Range (= Opening Range Breakout) or inside?
  • Was Tuesday a First Red Day (FRD) or a First Green Day (FGD)?
  • Has there already been 3 levels of rise or fall from the High or the Low of the Week (LOW/HOW)? This could indicate a daily reversal.
  • Consider market structure! 


Here are some additional observations related to whether Wednesday will be a reversal or a trend continuation of the Monday-Tuesday initial balance:
  • If the market closes outside of Monday's Opening Range on Tuesday, the probability that Wednesday continues the trend increases significantly (unless the breakout fails on Wednesday)
  • On Tuesday the market breaks out of Monday's range, but pulls back and closes inside of  Monday's range (failed breakout). The probability of reaching for the other end of the Opening Range increases significantly.
  • If Monday's breakout fails, and Tuesday's breakout also fails at the other end of Monday's range, there is  high potential for a Parabolic Trend Trade on Wednesday.
  • 3 Pushes of drives out of the Weekly Opening Range coming into Friday has the highest potential for a large reversal.
  • If there are only 2 drives out of the Opening Range coming into Friday, there is a higher probability for a Parabolic Trend Trade.
  • If the breakout on Tuesday closes 3 levels of rise or fall out of the Opening Range, the potential for reversal throughout the week increases.
  • In most instruments the Tuesday-Friday range extension from Monday's opening range is usually a multiple of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2, 3, 4 or 5 of Monday's range.
  • In most instruments the Average Weekly Range equals 1.8 to 2.3 times the Average Daily Range. 
 
Time Frames - Price Ranges - Time-Price Proportions | Some Observations
 
References:

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

ICT Weekly Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston

 
 
 
These profiles are conceptual models that describe typical patterns in how prices might behave during a trading week. Each profile has unique characteristics that can guide traders in anticipating potential market movements. However, it’s important to note that these profiles are not rigid predictions but rather frameworks to understand market tendencies. 
 
The weekly price movement in financial markets follows a recurring pattern of consolidation, expansion, reversal, expansion again, consolidation, and a potential reverse or retracement:
  1. Sunday Open Consolidation: The week often begins with price consolidation on the Sunday open, reflecting a cautious approach as traders assess the weekend developments.
  2. Monday Expansion: As the trading week gains momentum, Monday is typically marked by an expansion phase. This reflects increased activity and movement as traders react to new information.
  3. Tuesday Reversal: The following day, Tuesday, often witnesses a reversal in price trends. This can be attributed to traders reassessing their positions after the initial expansion phase.
  4. Wednesday Expansion: Midweek, the market tends to experience another expansion phase. This reflects a renewed bout of activity and movement in response to evolving market dynamics.
  5. Thursday Consolidation: On Thursday, there’s often a consolidation phase. Price ranges may narrow as traders assess the overall sentiment and prepare for the end of the trading week.
  6. Midweek Friday Reverse or Retrace: As the week approaches its close, Friday may see a reversal or retracement in trends. Traders might adjust their positions before the weekend, leading to a shift in price direction.

This weekly cycle reflects the rhythm of market sentiment and participant actions throughout the trading week.