The Toy2mt Barometer Signals Neutrality for 2025 │ Wayne Whaley

The S&P's performance from November 19 to January 19 has an interesting history of accurately predicting the direction of the S&P over the subsequent 12 months. I refer to this time frame as Toy2mt (Turn of the Year - Two months).  See November 23rd Post. 

 Neutral Toy2mt Signal Performance since 1950 = Average 9.3% Annual Gain.

 

• When Toy2mt is greater than 3%, the following year is 36-2 for an average gain of 16.7%.
• When Toy2mt is negative, the following year is 7-11 for an average loss of 2.6%.
• The 2025 Toy2mt came in at 1.35%.  The above table shows the post-1950 performance, in which Toy2mt came in at 0-3%, which is considered the neutral signal range.

Neutral Toy signal performance is in line with historic norms, as 73.7% of post-1950 Toy years have been positive for an average gain of 9.3%. I have other Toy Barometers with similar forecasting acumen that are still works in progress, which I defer to when Toy2mt is inconclusive.

Wayne Whaley, January 18, 2025.

 

MAG 7 January 2025 Seasonality Charts. 

 

 See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 17, 2025) - Market Bounce After December Low Breach Encouraging. 

S&P 500 Cup-and-Handle Breakout Targets 5,930 & 6,180 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 has experienced a bullish breakout from a cup-and-handle formation that formed between July and September, indicating potential upside targets of 5,930 and 6,180. 

Seasonal trends for the fourth quarter further support these targets. Last week’s tactical breakout appears strong, with support near the 5,775-5,745 range. Importantly, the cup-and-handle pattern remains intact as long as the S&P 500 stays above the 5,600s.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 15, 2024.