S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years | Paul Ciana

Bank of America's Paul Ciana analyzes 96 years of S&P 500 data to highlight the index's seasonal historical performance from May to July, and reveals average gains of 2.5% since 1928 and 5% since 2015.

 S&P 500 Average Trend: 3-Month Look Ahead (April 30 to July 31).

The S&P 500 closed at approximately 5,958 on May 16, 2025, up from 5,584 on May 1. This represents a 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16. Forecasts predict that May will average 6,017, ending at 6,249, marking an 11.5% monthly rise. June and July also show positive projections, with June at 6,600 and July at 6,566. Historically, the period from May to July sees a 2.5% gain since 1928, or 5% since 2015. This year’s forecast suggests a 17.6% rise, well above the historical averages.

The current 7.16% increase from May 1 to May 16 already surpasses the historical three-month average, indicating that the seasonal trend is not only holding but also exceeding expectations. While the bullish momentum in the first week of May is clear, the second week is typically bearish. However, the market has continued to rise, possibly due to strong investor sentiment suggesting further gains through July, potentially reaching a 17.6% increase by July 31—far above the 2.5% and 5% historical averages. Capital Economics expects the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% return for 2025, both supporting the idea of strong seasonal performance.

Reference:
Neil Sethi (April 30, 2025) –  BoA Paul Ciana’s S&P 500 Seasonal Trend from May to July.

Biggest 6-Week VIX% Declines and Forward S&P 500 Total Returns AND
Biggest 27 Trading Day Rallies (1950-2025).

See also:

Charlie Bilello (May 16, 2025)  - One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History. (video)

The Economy Forecast Agency (May 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 FORECAST 2025, 2026, 2027-2029.
Ryan Detrick (May 16, 2025) - S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls.

Paul Ciana (April 4, 2025) - Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time. 

Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time | Paul Ciana

Bank of America technician Paul Ciana notes that while April has historically been a strong month, "over the last ten years, the SPX trended down in April and bounced back in May," but week 2 of April has been up 72% of the time.

 

 BoA Paul Ciana: Week 2 of April up 72% of the time.

 

S&P 500 (30-Minute Bars).

Hurst's nominal 10-Day Cycle points to a low on Tuesday, April 8 around 8:30 a.m.

Week 3 of the 3-Week Cycle (click HERE).

SPY (Monthly Bars).

42-Month Kitchin Cycle, 18-Month Cycle, Premium-Discount Levels, and Buy Zone. 

Please note, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June;

three monthly pushes from the breakout to the downside (click HERE).

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal Cycles.

 

VIX (Daily Bars). 

 

S&P 500 vs CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio (Daily Bars EOD).

 CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear.

 

S&P 500 vs CNN Fear & Greed Index:

April 4, 2025 @ 4.27 = lowest since May 11, 2022 @ 4.03. 

 

 Bloomberg: Nasdaq 100 dropped 20% and is now in a Bear Market.

 

BoA Michael Hartnett: S&P 500 buying levels now at 4,800-5,000. 

 

Steve Miller (April 4, 2025) - Stock Market Cycles Analysis (SPX, NDX, VIX, TNX).

S&P 500 vs Blood Indicator (= US 03-Month Treasury Bill / High Yield Spread)

 

And finally, the Ultra Bear Perspective:

 

  » Stop trying to buy the dips. The S&P 500 still has 1500-2000+
points of downside left over the next 2-3 years. «
Trigger Trades, April 4, 2025.

 

See also:

 Jason A. Jankovsky (September 25, 2023) - The Importance of Buy/Sell 50% Retracements.

20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart

Insider selling is often early.

The highest bars in the chart above (ratio of sellers to buyers) seem to come before the final major price tops in the S&P 500. The ratio of insider selling to buying is now at a 20+ year high:

 

1. Stocks are at an all-time high.
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,

     leaving everyone else to be the patsy when the rug pull arrives.

Adam Taggart, November 27, 2024. 

Scott Rubner: 4% year-end rally to 6,200 in the S&P 500, and 7,000 not long after.
Bloomberg, November 25, 2024.

 

Over the past 50 years, the Nasdaq has only experienced one instance (2011) where it was negative both on the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving. Out of the 9 negative Wednesdays recorded during this period, the Nasdaq posted a positive return on 8 Fridays after Thanksgiving, with an average Friday gain of 1.39% and a median gain of 0.83%.

Wayne Whaley, November 27, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 28, 2024.

Support Holds on S&P 500, Bullish Pattern Targets 6,100s | Stephen Suttmeier

First support shifts slightly to the 5870s-5850s area on the S&P 500, which bent but did not decisively break last week. Continuing to hold this support would keep the pattern bullish, with upside potential to the July-September cup and handle. The early 2022 to early 2024 big base breakout targets are into the 6,100s. The cup and handle breakout and retest zone at 5,700-5,650 offers additional support.

The S&P 500 advance-decline (A-D) line reached a new high on Friday (11/22), and the NYSE Composite stocks A-D line hit a new high yesterday (11/25). This neutralizes the mid-October to early November bearish divergences for these market breadth indicators. It also provides bullish confirmation for the new highs on the NYSE and serves as a potential leading indicator for new highs on the S&P 500, increasing the likelihood of following bullish seasonality into year-end.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 26, 2024 [HERE], and [HERE]

 

Trend-wise, while the cap-weighed S&P 500 continues to float above its trendline, the chart above shows that the index is only two standard deviations above trend. At major extremes it can reach three standard deviations.

Jurrien Timmer, November 26, 2024.

S&P 500 and the 3-Month VIX Relative to the VIX | Stephen Suttmeier

The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 5, 2024

 

The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).

Tom McClellan, November 5, 2024 

S&P 500 Cup-and-Handle Breakout Targets 5,930 & 6,180 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 has experienced a bullish breakout from a cup-and-handle formation that formed between July and September, indicating potential upside targets of 5,930 and 6,180. 

Seasonal trends for the fourth quarter further support these targets. Last week’s tactical breakout appears strong, with support near the 5,775-5,745 range. Importantly, the cup-and-handle pattern remains intact as long as the S&P 500 stays above the 5,600s.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 15, 2024.