20-Year High in Insider Selling Precedes Market Top | Adam Taggart

Insider selling is often early.

The highest bars in the chart above (ratio of sellers to buyers) seem to come before the final major price tops in the S&P 500. The ratio of insider selling to buying is now at a 20+ year high:

 

1. Stocks are at an all-time high.
2. Corporate executives are selling far more stock than they are buying.
3. It doesn't take a genius to see that the insiders are cashing out while the getting is good,

     leaving everyone else to be the patsy when the rug pull arrives.

Adam Taggart, November 27, 2024. 

Scott Rubner: 4% year-end rally to 6,200 in the S&P 500, and 7,000 not long after.
Bloomberg, November 25, 2024.

 

Over the past 50 years, the Nasdaq has only experienced one instance (2011) where it was negative both on the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving. Out of the 9 negative Wednesdays recorded during this period, the Nasdaq posted a positive return on 8 Fridays after Thanksgiving, with an average Friday gain of 1.39% and a median gain of 0.83%.

Wayne Whaley, November 27, 2024.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 28, 2024.

Support Holds on S&P 500, Bullish Pattern Targets 6,100s | Stephen Suttmeier

First support shifts slightly to the 5870s-5850s area on the S&P 500, which bent but did not decisively break last week. Continuing to hold this support would keep the pattern bullish, with upside potential to the July-September cup and handle. The early 2022 to early 2024 big base breakout targets are into the 6,100s. The cup and handle breakout and retest zone at 5,700-5,650 offers additional support.

The S&P 500 advance-decline (A-D) line reached a new high on Friday (11/22), and the NYSE Composite stocks A-D line hit a new high yesterday (11/25). This neutralizes the mid-October to early November bearish divergences for these market breadth indicators. It also provides bullish confirmation for the new highs on the NYSE and serves as a potential leading indicator for new highs on the S&P 500, increasing the likelihood of following bullish seasonality into year-end.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 26, 2024 [HERE], and [HERE]

 

Trend-wise, while the cap-weighed S&P 500 continues to float above its trendline, the chart above shows that the index is only two standard deviations above trend. At major extremes it can reach three standard deviations.

Jurrien Timmer, November 26, 2024.

S&P 500 and the 3-Month VIX Relative to the VIX | Stephen Suttmeier

The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.

Stephen Suttmeier, November 5, 2024

 

The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).

Tom McClellan, November 5, 2024 

S&P 500 Cup-and-Handle Breakout Targets 5,930 & 6,180 | Stephen Suttmeier

The S&P 500 has experienced a bullish breakout from a cup-and-handle formation that formed between July and September, indicating potential upside targets of 5,930 and 6,180. 

Seasonal trends for the fourth quarter further support these targets. Last week’s tactical breakout appears strong, with support near the 5,775-5,745 range. Importantly, the cup-and-handle pattern remains intact as long as the S&P 500 stays above the 5,600s.

Stephen Suttmeier — October 15, 2024.