The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.
The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).