Second Week of April Up 72% of the Time | Paul Ciana

Bank of America technician Paul Ciana notes that while April has historically been a strong month, "over the last ten years, the SPX trended down in April and bounced back in May," but week 2 of April has been up 72% of the time.

 

 BoA Paul Ciana: Week 2 of April up 72% of the time.

 

S&P 500 (30-Minute Bars).

Hurst's nominal 10-Day Cycle points to a low on Tuesday, April 8 around 8:30 a.m.

Week 3 of the 3-Week Cycle (click HERE).

SPY (Monthly Bars).

42-Month Kitchin Cycle, 18-Month Cycle, Premium-Discount Levels, and Buy Zone. 

Please note, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June;

three monthly pushes from the breakout to the downside (click HERE).

 

J.M. Hurst's Nominal Cycles.

 

VIX (Daily Bars). 

 

S&P 500 vs CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio (Daily Bars EOD).

 CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear.

 

S&P 500 vs CNN Fear & Greed Index:

April 4, 2025 @ 4.27 = lowest since May 11, 2022 @ 4.03. 

 

 Bloomberg: Nasdaq 100 dropped 20% and is now in a Bear Market.

 

BoA Michael Hartnett: S&P 500 buying levels now at 4,800-5,000. 

 

Steve Miller (April 4, 2025) - Stock Market Cycles Analysis (SPX, NDX, VIX, TNX).

S&P 500 vs Blood Indicator (= US 03-Month Treasury Bill / High Yield Spread)

 

And finally, the Ultra Bear Perspective:

 

  » Stop trying to buy the dips. The S&P 500 still has 1500-2000+
points of downside left over the next 2-3 years. «
Trigger Trades, April 4, 2025.

 

See also:

 Jason A. Jankovsky (September 25, 2023) - The Importance of Buy/Sell 50% Retracements.

Buy and Sell Signals | Larry Williams

If I observe prices in a strong downtrend, followed by a period of sideways movement before another decline, only to immediately return to the previous trading range, that's a buy signal.

 

Buy Signal: Dump, dump, (dump), go sideways and pump a bit, one more small dump, then the pump.

Sell Signal: Pump, pump, (pump), go sideways and drop a bit, one more small pump, then the dump.

 

Why? Because, during the sideways range, accumulation was taking place. The breakdown likely liquidated many long positions, and professional money will often buy in that area.

 

 

If the price quickly returns to the range, it confirms that they’ve been buying, and that's when I want to enter a long position in the market.

Quoted from:
Larry Williams (2016) - Buy Signal. (video)

 

See also:

Larry Williams (2011) - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading.

Three-Push Reversal Patterns | Cameron Benson

There are a lot of varying opinions about how the market moves, such as the Wyckoff method, Elliott Waves, Stacey Burke Trading, Steve Mauro’s BTMM, etc. However, one thing that all of these methods and models have in common is that the market moves in three pushes.

 

In all timeframes price is always in some three-push pattern. Price develops in fractals, and everything happening on a higher time frame happens far more frequently on lower time frames. Be aware of Other Time Frame (OTF) traders, of previous monthly, weekly, and daily highs or lows. It helps us to identify liquidity areas. Where are the entry and the stop loss orders? Where is the money, at the upper or at the lower end of a range?

 

After the third push into one direction, price is going into consolidation. During the second push retail-traders believe that price is going to continue in the same direction, and everybody jumps in. This is the market maker’s trap to harvest entry and stop loss orders during consolidation. The third push is already part of a larger peak formation reversal pattern. 

 

Al Brooks: Wedges and other Three-Push Reversal Patterns.

There are four different variations of the three-push pattern that can be observed on all timeframes:             

 

          1.             3 Levels, also referred to as ‘stair stepping’.
            2.             3 Pushes:
                                a.   Stair Step.
                                b.   1, 2, Pause, 3.
                                c.   1, 2, 3.
                                d.   1, Pause, 2, Pause, 3.
                                e.   3 Burst Impulse Candles.
            3.            3 Pushes out of consolidation in any of the above listed variations.
            4.            Working Levels (3 Pushes)
                               a.   Triple Tops.
                               b.   Triple Bottoms.  

 

Quoted from:
Cameron Benson (2023) - Decoding the Market Movement Algorithm. (video)

 

Three Pushes and Levels out of consolidation:
The Bearish and the Bullish Market Maker Cycle.

See also:
Stacey Burke (2022) - Three-Push Patterns. (video)

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook. 

Al Brooks (2011-2012) - Trading Price Action: Ranges, Trends & Reversals.

Trading the Pump & Dump Pattern | Cameron Benson

I'm going to show you that pattern that I use every single day on every single trade, whether I'm going long or short. The pattern that I'm referring to is the pump & dump and the dump & pump pattern. Every single market movement is either a pump & dump or a dump & pump pattern, and all trade setups are based on these two patterns.

 

 

Markets are fractal, and this pattern is going to occur on the weekly and the daily time frame, on the 4 hour, the 15-minute, the 30 second chart, etc. It doesn't matter: whatever you're looking at, this pattern is going to occur.

I use larger setups and then I start to break things down: I look at the date and day in the month, I look at the three-week cycle, at the three-day cycle, at what day are we in the week, and I look at the weekly range, what is the high and the low of the week. Are we working the low, are we working the high? 

 

Any unidirectional move – up or down - ends with a consolidation, followed by a break in market structure and a continuation to anther pivot level and/or it is followed by a reversal.

 

 

Three pushes to a high, a sideways consolidation, a break in market structure to the downside, then the dump. A lot of times the market will return down at least to the 50% retracement level or down to the level where the pump started or even below.

Reference:
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - 15 Minute Talk That Will Change How You View The Market [Pump And Dump].
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - Pump And Dump & Dump And Pump [Pdf-Slideshow of the above video].

See also:

Cameron Benson (Apr 27, 2023) - The 3 Day Cycle.
Cameron Benson (Apr 27, 2023) - The 3 Week Cycle.

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook. 

Al Brooks (2012) - Wedges and Other Three-Push Reversal Patterns.